Allsnow Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 .24 but need more rain then that. The morning mcs completely screwed the potential today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The NAM convection placement has been off recently. Too bad they had to suspend the HRRR v4 and delay implementation. Those 24 to 36 hr convection forecasts seemed to be pretty good when the forecasts were on COD weather. Would be nice if they could develop a new CAM run off the ECMWF. All I really look at is satellite, radar, and instability maps. Those meso models can really crap the bed with convection. And I wouldn’t trust any of their radar illustrations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: .24 but need more rain then that. The morning mcs completely screwed the potential today Once we didn't clear out by 11 am I knew the severe potential was going to be greatly reduced. Lets see what happens tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Once we didn't clear out by 11 am I knew the severe potential was going to be greatly reduced. Lets see what happens tomorrow. Storms didn't miss us by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 if it arrived 6 hours later we would have gotten slammed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 It was definitely not a storm where everyone got their due. I hate summers where everything looks parched. Please, not this Summer, 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: i have a good view of it Wow yeah that's a nice perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 28, 2020 Author Share Posted June 28, 2020 Good Sunday morning everyone, Here is the wrap-up: Failed outlook...ending up further south and faster, with less CAPE, Heating was less-max T near 80; and so the instability in advance was limited. This ended up not worthy of my raising expectations. However, I've added two images. One is the rainfall estimates..I think this is accurate. You can see how some of the previously posted graphics didn't fare too well. In my opinion, the GFS qpf did okay (EC gusts predictor for NYS/PA was forever failed in this event). All models tend to err the track of the svr convective bands around here, which are usually further south than modeled. In this case you see the nice stripe of heavy rainfall south of I80. NYC metro, glad you got something...your first extensive minor event since the 11th (as I spot checked). SVR: few reports in the heavy qpf axis south of NYC. Hopefully this summary is useful. 648A/28 at 158P. I added on more detailed LSR info, as pulled from the LOT LSR website, a national program that I like. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/lsrmap.html?sid=lot The link is above. 158P/28 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Close to golf ball sized hail on the ground out near Port Jervis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Close to golf ball sized hail on the ground out near Port Jervis. Mt Holly reporting ping pong size hail near high point. Cell May clip my area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Animal said: Mt Holly reporting ping pong size hail near high point. Cell May clip my area The one hailer is just to my north by a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 28, 2020 Author Share Posted June 28, 2020 Wantage (southern part) around .18" in ~10 min, no hail. Max G 15 MPH. rainfall rate ~1"/hr. Decent needed rain. We need more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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