Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

[paweather]

Looks like next week the heat will be on break at the very least good news. But heck this is not a hot summer. 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

At least FA captured all the weather for us in this prediction. LOL

The only thing missing is the FA giving each area an astrological sign.  The Northeast is born under the sign of Taurus and is stubborn, unforgiving and uncompromising along with seasonably cold. .

[paweather]

My copy paste of the day:

[canderson]

2 hours ago, paweather said:

Looks like next week the heat will be on break at the very least good news. But heck this is not a hot summer. 

Is that a prolonged stretch of low, low 80s (at best) and lower-than-normal humidity I see next week???

[paweather]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Is that a prolonged stretch of low, low 80s (at best) and lower-than-normal humidity I see next week???

Yes I believe so. 

[Bubbler86]

56 minutes ago, paweather said:

My copy paste of the day:

More Farmers Almanac graphics?  LOL

[Itstrainingtime]

So one year ago today, my wife and I made plans to vacation on Galveston Island arriving today and leaving on a western Caribbean cruise tomorrow. Once Covid hit and crippled the cruise lines, we cancelled all of our reservations. At the time, it was disheartening to do so...

Interesting how things turn out...

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So one year ago today, my wife and I made plans to vacation on Galveston Island arriving today and leaving on a western Caribbean cruise tomorrow. Once Covid hit and crippled the cruise lines, we cancelled all of our reservations. At the time, it was disheartening to do so...

Interesting how things turn out...

Wow.  It would have been so much worse having to deal with the last cancel now. 

[paweather]

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So one year ago today, my wife and I made plans to vacation on Galveston Island arriving today and leaving on a western Caribbean cruise tomorrow. Once Covid hit and crippled the cruise lines, we cancelled all of our reservations. At the time, it was disheartening to do so...

Interesting how things turn out...

I'll say, Laura is really strengthening. 

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, paweather said:

I'll say, Laura is really strengthening. 

Score one for the Hwrf.    If anything it under did the results as they are being reported at this hour but it was much closer than the traditional models.  EC was pretty close as well.   Cannot even trust that this will not clip Cat 5 status at this point. 

 

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Score one for the Hwrf.    If anything it under did the results as they are being reporting at this hour but it was much closer than the traditional models.  EC was pretty close as well.   Cannot even trust that this will not clip Cat 5 status at this point. 

 

 

Agreed. It is another 2020 extreme. I hope people are preparing down there. 

[paweather]

WOW. up to Cat 4. 

[Bubbler86]

With all due respect to the ensembles I am still not feeling good about Laura paying a visit to our neck of the words as it pertains to significant rain.   

 

 

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, paweather said:

WOW. up to Cat 4. 

You are now the most frequent poster here I think.  We should call this the Summer of paweather. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

You are now the most frequent poster here I think.  We should call this the Summer of paweather. 

I know. Sorry. This is a very first ever for me but again, I just missed the tracking that we didn't have in the winter months. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

I know. Sorry. This is a very first ever for me but again, I just missed the tracking that we didn't have in the winter months. 

Goodness, do not be sorry.  I was complimenting you.  

[Itstrainingtime]

In an era when everything seems to be sensationalized by the media, I fear that Laura is going to cause a lot of heartache over the next 24 hours.  

Our anniversary plans getting ruined = inconvenience. People who live down that way = livelihoods altered potentially for many years to come. 

[paweather]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Goodness, do not be sorry.  I was complimenting you.  

Yeah, I know you didn't mean anything. I am usually in hibernation from this forum right now. But now it at the very least I am starting to like all 4 seasons more and more with the weather.

[paweather]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In an era when everything seems to be sensationalized by the media, I fear that Laura is going to cause a lot of heartache over the next 24 hours.  

Our anniversary plans getting ruined = inconvenience. People who live down that way = livelihoods altered potentially for many years to come. 

Just read this:

Since records began in 1851, a category 4 or 5 hurricane has never made landfall in southwestern Louisiana or far southeast Texas. Even if you've ridden out strong hurricanes in the past, you're not going to want to ride out this one. Parts of southwest Louisiana and far southeast Texas will experience historic storm surge from Laura. Also keep in mind that Laura will be making landfall when it's dark.

Even though the Saffir-Simpson scale is widely used to categorize hurricanes based on sustained wind speed, remember that it does have its limitations. Remember, Hurricane Katrina actually made landfall as a category 3 storm. There are many examples of hurricanes that were catastrophic but didn't rank as high on the Saffir-Simpson scale at/near landfall. That's why it's so important to assess the potential impacts of a hurricane on a storm-by-storm basis. With Laura, the storm surge will likely be the primary killer, and even those who have lived through powerful hurricanes in the past have likely never experienced anything like what's about to happen.

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In an era when everything seems to be sensationalized by the media, I fear that Laura is going to cause a lot of heartache over the next 24 hours.  

Our anniversary plans getting ruined = inconvenience. People who live down that way = livelihoods altered potentially for many years to come. 

Yep, one could argue that the issues from 2020 including Covid, Election, etc...have taken away from peoples time to be amazed at Laura who is turning out to be a mean one. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah, I know you didn't mean anything. I am usually in hibernation from this forum right now. But now it at the very least I am starting to like all 4 seasons more and more with the weather.

You are also carrying the bag while some of the usuals here have abandoned us to talk topics with the Turtle and watch NJWX post old maps. 

 

 

[canderson]

I know so many that are gonna be devastated by Laura and I can do nothing to help.  I’m kinda distraught. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

I know so many that are gonna be devastated by Laura and I can do nothing to help.  I’m kinda distraught. 

Its going to end up being a lifetime storm for many people.  Extremely under-forecasted.  I can add that I was sitting in Bradenton Florida the night before Hurricane Irma almost convinced I was not evacuating but all it took was a few last min runs of the HRRR and sirens blaring to change my mind and hopefully these last min warnings will be enough for those that were underwhelmed by Cat 2 forecasts. 

[paweather]

Insane, hang in there Canderson:

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

You are also carrying the bag while some of the usuals here have abandoned us to talk topics with the Turtle and watch NJWX post old maps. 

 

 

That Chicago Storm dude was a little unfair to him - NJWX kept asking nicely if someone (including Chicago man) had more up to date maps to please post them. All he got in response was ugly sarcasm. People like that seriously bother me - don't complain unless you have something better in return. All he had was ugliness. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That Chicago Storm dude was a little unfair to him - NJWX kept asking nicely if someone (including Chicago man) had more up to date maps to please post them. All he got in response was ugly sarcasm. People like that seriously bother me - don't complain unless you have something better in return. All he had was ugliness. 

Yea, I just took a 5 second glance at the thread and saw that convo.   I do not actually know Njwx so it was a sarcastic remark vs. picking on him. .  I cannot keep up with the speed of the thread and try to work at the same time.  

[MAG5035]

Well Laura escalated quickly today, geesh. I'm not really surprised this ran up to a 4 as this is what organized hurricanes in the very warm Gulf do this time of the year when the surrounding conditions are conducive. It def has "the look" now with the symmetric central dense overcast and very well defined and equally symmetric eye. NHC notes in their disco possible increase of SW shear and maybe an eyewall replacement cycle right as it's coming in but there's not much time for either of those things to do much if it happens. It's moving at a steady pace. I think this thing's probably going to come in near peak intensity (within 10mph either side of its current 145 sustained).   Could this crack a 5? Maybe an outside chance...although the pressure's a little high. 940s type pressure usually are suggestive of a cat 4 or even a high 3. It would probably have to really deepen a good bit more pressure wise down at least into the 920-930ish range. 

Either way this is going to have a tremendous storm surge into southern LA/extreme SE TX. The low lying marshland/bayous that make up the immediate several miles to the coastline are going be inundated easily and that's why NHC has very strong wording with the storm surge as it is going to penetrate miles inland from the actual coast. 

3 hours ago, canderson said:

I know so many that are gonna be devastated by Laura and I can do nothing to help.  I’m kinda distraught. 

Where are some of the people you know located in that area?

[canderson]

18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well Laura escalated quickly today, geesh. I'm not really surprised this ran up to a 4 as this is what organized hurricanes in the very warm Gulf do this time of the year when the surrounding conditions are conducive. It def has "the look" now with the symmetric central dense overcast and very well defined and equally symmetric eye. NHC notes in their disco possible increase of SW shear and maybe an eyewall replacement cycle right as it's coming in but there's not much time for either of those things to do much if it happens. It's moving at a steady pace. I think this thing's probably going to come in near peak intensity (within 10mph either side of its current 145 sustained).   Could this crack a 5? Maybe an outside chance...although the pressure's a little high. 940s type pressure usually are suggestive of a cat 4 or even a high 3. It would probably have to really deepen a good bit more pressure wise down at least into the 920-930ish range. 

Either way this is going to have a tremendous storm surge into southern LA/extreme SE TX. The low lying marshland/bayous that make up the immediate several miles to the coastline are going be inundated easily and that's why NHC has very strong wording with the storm surge as it is going to penetrate miles inland from the actual coast. 

Where are some of the people you know located in that area?

Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, DeRitter, Nederland and then many from Galveston / Houston area. 

But then so many around Nacogdoches and Shreveport and Longview - my parents are 30 miles from the border. They had 75 mph winds in Rita in NE Texas. 

Those beautiful pine forest are gonna be decimated.

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, DeRitter, Nederland and then many from Galveston / Houston area. 

But then so many around Nacogdoches and Shreveport and Longview - my parents are 30 miles from the border. They had 75 mph winds in Rita in NE Texas. 

Those beautiful pine forest are gonna be decimated.

Ugh it's not a good outlook for most of a lot of those communities. I hope the ones in Port Arthur, Lake Charles, and Nederland evacuated. The way this storm is moving at a half decent clip it's going to take hurricane force wind gusts way inland. Hurricane hunter's are finding pressures in the 930s now. Like I said in my last post, this is probably coming in peak intensity. It's sort of looking like the situation with Hurricane Michael back in 2018. 

As bad as this is going to be on the coast and well inland for those that get into the core of the storm, the fact this thing is going to split the uprights and landfall in a pretty rural stretch between Galveston/Houston and New Orleans is a miracle. Couldn't imagine this coming straight up Galveston Bay or into SE LA below NOLA. 

 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Ugh it's not a good outlook for most of a lot of those communities. I hope the ones in Port Arthur, Lake Charles, and Nederland evacuated. The way this storm is moving at a half decent clip it's going to take hurricane force wind gusts way inland. Hurricane hunter's are finding pressures in the 930s now. Like I said in my last post, this is probably coming in peak intensity. It's sort of looking like the situation with Hurricane Michael back in 2018. 

As bad as this is going to be on the coast and well inland for those that get into the core of the storm, the fact this thing is going to split the uprights and landfall in a pretty rural stretch between Galveston/Houston and New Orleans is a miracle. Couldn't imagine this coming straight up Galveston Bay or into SE LA below NOLA. 

 

It’s gonna destroy so much land that’ll be lost the Gulf but yea, it’s hitting about the best possible place between Houston and NO. That unfortunately means Lake Charles is going to never be the same again.