paweather Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 1 minute ago, canderson said: A big one is missing me to the north that should hit you! I'm hoping........like last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Wind just really picked up here even though the storm is tracking slightly north. Must be some big outflows going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 For those south of the turnpike, today looks more and more like it's going to be a shutout unless things start popping further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So far I've seen nothing but some fair weather cumulus...patiently waiting for my squa...er, storm. Better luck tomorrow for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Better luck tomorrow for both of us. We're already under an enhanced risk for wind tomorrow on SPC's day 2 outlook. No way we miss out on both days...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We're already under an enhanced risk for wind tomorrow on SPC's day 2 outlook. No way we miss out on both days...right? No way I miss out on wind here I can almost guarantee that. We get wind like no where I have ever lived. Rain. We could be at 100% chance and still miss out because of the Great Valley down-sloping and drying out/skipping us so often. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Wow!!! Thanks so much for the well wishes! It means a lot! A couple of good storms blew through here this afternoon. True to this Summer's theme, when they're born between Pottsville and Hazleton, we get hit good. 1.61" in the gauge at last look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Pretty much a dry day here today for the most part unless some of the remaining storms in western PA find their way here (doubtful). I'd say a rough guesstimate was about a half inch of rain yesterday, so hopefully can score some more tomorrow. One other observation lately around here has been the "fall" foliage. Obviously, the drought conditions have been a pretty big catalyst but there's a lot of trees with leaves turning colors. And some are turning to reds and oranges as well. Most of the tree foliage is still green of course, but it's noticeable. I've seen mid-late September foliage less further along than what we have currently... and it isn't even September yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Hey Voyager you made it through surgery! Hope you have a speedy recovery! 0.28 around supper time. First rain we have had in a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 10 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Just looked at the EC. Shows Laura missing a possible phase like situation with a Northern Stream System and missing our Sub-Forum (as of today). The potential course is changing so drastically each run its not worth too much discussion but until the EC shows rain I am not putting on my rain coat. We wouldn't necessarily need the center of the remnant low to move through PA to see an enhanced rain potential given the approaching shortwave and trough, nor would we need a full phase or anything like that. Timing of features is fairly important as usual. If the trough progresses faster, that could cut off Laura's moisture from coming up here. Otherwise, aside from any possible direct impacts from the remnants, just drawing up the moisture laden airmass that accompanies a tropical system via southern and SW flow (from a probable landfall in the western/central Gulf coast in this case) charges up the PWAT's and you can have a heavy rain threat just from that from thunderstorm development in that airmass. A look at EC ensemble guidance this afternoon indicated pretty high PWAT's (generally 1.5-1.75") early in the weekend, which is around the time we would see anything. Here's the EC ensemble map of PWAT percent anomalies, most of PA about 160% of normal in this timeframe. That tropical airmass would also accompanied by yet another above normal regime temp wise ahead of that trough late week into the weekend. So I can already see where we could have thunderstorms develop with torrential downpours without the actual tropical system directly impacting PA. If these features time well, it could draw the remnants up and the approaching front could enhance an actual slug of organized precip.. which would be more beneficial in terms of regionwide relief from developing drought conditions. Much will probably change around this week. Laura definitely has a good shot at being a major hurricane and the main focus is where on the Gulf coast that is going to be. Most guidance has centered in that region of the TX/LA border. The 12z Euro ensemble mean was notably more west, focusing near the Galveston/Houston region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 11 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Pretty much a dry day here today for the most part unless some of the remaining storms in western PA find their way here (doubtful). I'd say a rough guesstimate was about a half inch of rain yesterday, so hopefully can score some more tomorrow. One other observation lately around here has been the "fall" foliage. Obviously, the drought conditions have been a pretty big catalyst but there's a lot of trees with leaves turning colors. And some are turning to reds and oranges as well. Most of the tree foliage is still green of course, but it's noticeable. I've seen mid-late September foliage less further along than what we have currently... and it isn't even September yet. So the question becomes why are the leaves changing colors at this pace in August? The drought is worse than it is being played up by NWS for some but is there something else causing it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: So the question becomes why are the leaves changing colors at this pace in August? The drought is worse than it is being played up by NWS for some but is there something else causing it? It could be related to insects sucking the chlorophyll out of the tree leaves. Fungus can also adversely affect tree leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 16 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: We're already under an enhanced risk for wind tomorrow on SPC's day 2 outlook. No way we miss out on both days...right? We got zilch last night when the radar looked so promising. Here is to another night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 FWIW my family isn't evacuating - they live between Houston and Galveston and then about 8 miles east of Galveston itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 18 minutes ago, canderson said: FWIW my family isn't evacuating - they live between Houston and Galveston and then about 8 miles east of Galveston itself. Good luck to them! I hope all remains well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 On a positive note we are almost in September. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Quick hitter shower here. Going to be measuring in the 1/1000th's again. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Lake Effect Storms are coming from Erie right now. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Just now, paweather said: Lake Effect Storms are coming from Erie right now. :-) Fake Rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Fake Rain Love it and now for my 2,000 post that I thought I would get there in February. :-( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Fake Rain Maybe, but you'll end up with 2" of rain from .2" of moisture. Fake rain is the quickest way out of a drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Maybe, but you'll end up with 2" of rain from .2" of moisture. Fake rain is the quickest way out of a drought. I'll just take fake Snow anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Maybe, but you'll end up with 2" of rain from .2" of moisture. Fake rain is the quickest way out of a drought. LOL, good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 Just now, paweather said: I'll just take fake Snow anytime! I never realized how dramatic some of the nuances are of LES - back several years ago when Buffalo got like 7' of snow in a few days, I believe that until the fluff settled and compacted they had just over half that amount still on the ground. Impressive depth, yes. But when you see the ridiculous totals coming in from up there during LE events it's good to remember that what is reported isn't what is always on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, good one! I've recognized my need to step things up around you these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme western Maryland Southern New York Central and Eastern Ohio Much of Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch area this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated reports of large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Athens OH to 45 miles east southeast of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Pretty much the entire state outside of Erie/Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 With due respect to Canderson's family and hoping for the best Laura getting to Cat 4 is not out of the realm of possibility at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've recognized my need to step things up around you these days. My humor is just like my weather. Dry. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: With due respect to Canderson's family and hoping for the best Laura getting to Cat 4 is not out of the realm of possibility at this point. Let's hope the current shear holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Forecast high: 90 Current high: 94 Winds pretty gusty too - up to around 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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