Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

[Bubbler86]

26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Torture 

Sucks

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z NAM & 12z Euro have very little precip this weekend for CTP.

 

 

 

Only a 1-2" drop from 12Z Nam. 

[Bubbler86]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The NAM also did well with a couple of the big storms during the 2009-10 winter, at least in the LSV. It was the first to insist on the north trend. The Euro came along thereafter and the GFS got on board about 6 hours into the storms.

The Nam is the go to model for snow hunters.  It seems less reliable with misses.  Not sure where to find verification for models concentrated on 72 hours or less. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

The Nam is the go to model for snow hunters.  It seems less reliable with misses.  Not sure where to find verification for models concentrated on 72 hours or less. 

The NAM this past winter was worthless. We would have had a normal snow season if the NAM was consistently right inside of 24 hours. 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The NAM this past winter was worthless. We would have had a normal snow season if the NAM was consistently right inside of 24 hours. 

I will respectfully disagree.  LOL.  I could out perform most forecasters with just the Nam and nothing else (short term).  The other models are just interference sometimes.  This past winter was the worst winter ever for snowfall at MDT so not a good winter for verification.  

[Itstrainingtime]

36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The NAM this past winter was worthless. We would have had a normal snow season if the NAM was consistently right inside of 24 hours. 

A lot of the models snowfall depictions this past winter did not make meteorological sense. Far too often models depicted low track consistently running west of PA and still showed significant snows here despite little to no CAD and screaming SE winds. That is why I in particular was critical of the snow maps because there was little sound reasoning to believe that they would be correct. 

And they weren't. 

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I will respectfully disagree.  LOL.  I could out perform most forecasters with just the Nam and nothing else (short term).  The other models are just interference sometimes.  This past winter was the worst winter ever for snowfall at MDT so not a good winter for verification.  

I would amend that to say that you could have outperformed the models and those who went solely by them, yes.

I believe that I remember MAG saying over and over again that the snow maps depicted were way overdone (especially in the LSV) - the meteorology didn't support the maps. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Torture 

I can't believe how low the ceiling has been here for the past 3 hours without so much of a drop falling. I've been waiting and waiting for the rain to start...it just won't. 

[canderson]

Well no rain but on the 80% chance day the other day we had full sun and today it’s been overcast all day for the 20% chance day so sure okay.  

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I would amend that to say that you could have outperformed the models and those who went solely by them, yes.

I believe that I remember MAG saying over and over again that the snow maps depicted were way overdone (especially in the LSV) - the meteorology didn't support the maps. 

I went the extreme direction.  Nam or bust.  I will never figure out the Nam hate when we post the GFS like it is right.  

[Bubbler86]

Up to about 2/10" for the day.  Grass watering. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I went the extreme direction.  Nam or bust.  I will never figure out the Nam hate when we post the GFS like it is right.  

This is true...though I think a lot in our thread recognize the woes of the GFS. I know @pasnownut will often caveat that when he shows what it's saying. 

The NAM gets more hate than it should, though sometimes when it's wrong it can be ridiculously so. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Up to about 2/10" for the day.  Grass watering. 

I just finished watering my garden. Hasn't rained here for days now. 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is true...though I think a lot in our thread recognize the woes of the GFS. I know @pasnownut will often caveat that when he shows what it's saying. 

The NAM gets more hate than it should, though sometimes when it's wrong it can be ridiculously so. 

Its very wrong some times.  It just changed my forecast from almost 2" to less than 1/2" for tonight.  

[canderson]

The PA Turnpike is the new Tamaqua split.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

The PA Turnpike is the new Tamaqua split.

The PA Turnpike is where wallets go to die. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The PA Turnpike is where wallets go to die. 

Or if you like tunnel action.  I sometimes get on just to traverse the tunnels. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Or if you like tunnel action.  I sometimes get on just to traverse the tunnels. 

I have EZ Pass and still can't keep up with the tolls. Sad thing is I really like driving the pike, it just is so darn expensive.

[MAG5035]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I would amend that to say that you could have outperformed the models and those who went solely by them, yes.

I believe that I remember MAG saying over and over again that the snow maps depicted were way overdone (especially in the LSV) - the meteorology didn't support the maps. 

The major theme last winter was certainly not a lack of opportunities, as it was fairly active storm wise. It was a major persistence in the storm track going north/northwest of PA as we came into the short term and then the reality of the event itself. Was sort of why models like the GFS gave us practically a 150% of normal snow season in digital snow in it's mid range. The big problem was the overall pattern vs what the mid term models were trying to do when they did try to give us an event far enough south for a snow event. Going practically the whole JFM period with a hyper +AO and an unfavorable West/Pacific was just a major detriment for our region to track a low south of the mason-dixon OR score notable frozen on events that put a primary west of PA due to a lack of arctic air availability via CAD. 

 I don't really recall the NAM being notably horrendous last winter. It's better with mesoscale features but one has to be mindful that it can be a bit, overzealous at times with it's output on said mesoscale features. A lot of the heartbreak happened before we really got into NAM range as mentioned above. We go through rough patches in any winter whether it's a good or bad one overall. Last winter was that one that just was a wall to wall disaster for this region. Once you got to about the US 6 corridor in northern PA and up into interior NY State it was a different story. Ugh, been trying to forget last winter lol. 

If anyone's actually wandering what I'm thinking about this coming winter attm since I'm on the topic, well.. I'm approaching it with cautious pessimism right now. I'm seeing some potential La-Nina influences that may come into play as we've been running cool in the ENSO region this summer (especially in 1+2 and 3). It's still considered "neutral" right now in official terms using the 3 month average but SST anomalies in the whole ENSO region overall have def cooled some the last couple weeks. CPC has been putting a 50-55% likelihood of a Nina developing this fall into the winter. I think it would be a reasonable bet to say we're heading toward a winter that's a cold neutral or weak La-Nina. Personally, I'm more concerned about precipitation than temps. A more traditional nina-type winter setup is more dominant northern branch and not much southern branch action. Northern branch stuff that produce a lot of our lighter, advisory type snows was practically non-existent last winter, so I think that could be a net positive compared to last winter. I think the cold will be there, at least more often than last winter. Having such a persistent +AO regime return once again for a second winter in a row is very unlikely. What happens with the northern Pac and the MJO will have also have a major say in things. Having an actual wintry period in December has been somewhat of a lost art form in our region the last few years, so I'd say we're due for that. Ninas can be early starters if we in fact have one late in the fall. Just some way too early thoughts, the heat and the daily precip misses are getting old.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

The PA Turnpike is the new Tamaqua split.

OMG... 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I would amend that to say that you could have outperformed the models and those who went solely by them, yes.

I believe that I remember MAG saying over and over again that the snow maps depicted were way overdone (especially in the LSV) - the meteorology didn't support the maps. 

Whenever I post a snow map of the NAM or another model in the winter, it doesn’t necessarily mean that I believe what it is showing.

The models that I post, which are NOT ALL snow maps,  are merely a depiction of what a particular model run is showing. No model run should be taken as gospel truth.

I like to show the model output to get all of the possibilities on the table. Then, we can evaluate based on storm track, telleconnections, trends, and several other factors.

Also, so many posters comment on model runs, but do not post maps. They just say “it’s a good or bad run” or it went “north or south”, with ZERO context or quality content. 

A good run for my yard might not be good for yours, so I take the time to post maps so people can see how things stand for their location.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its very wrong some times.  It just changed my forecast from almost 2" to less than 1/2" for tonight.  

The models were all dreadful this past winter, even the almighty Euro had a bad year.

So many times this past Winter a storm looked somewhat promising even 5 days out, but then fell apart a day or two later. Nothing broke favorably for us when we got to the critical 3 day juncture!

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Up to about 2/10" for the day.  Grass watering. 

Lol, I thought that your historic drought made your grass toast this year for good!

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I just finished watering my garden. Hasn't rained here for days now. 

Before you know it, you will be in the same drought boat as our Franklin & Adams County friends!

[Blizzard of 93]

5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I will respectfully disagree.  LOL.  I could out perform most forecasters with just the Nam and nothing else (short term).  The other models are just interference sometimes.  This past winter was the worst winter ever for snowfall at MDT so not a good winter for verification.  

Lol, You would be out of business quickly as a weather forecaster if you only used the NAM !

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Whenever I post a snow map of the NAM or another model in the winter, it doesn’t necessarily mean that I believe what it is showing.

The models that I post, which are NOT ALL snow maps,  are merely a depiction of what a particular model run is showing. No model run should be taken as gospel truth.

I like to show the model output to get all of the possibilities on the table. Then, we can evaluate based on storm track, telleconnections, trends, and several other factors.

Also, so many posters comment on model runs, but do not post maps. They just say “it’s a good or bad run” or it went “north or south”, with ZERO context or quality content. 

A good run for my yard might not be good for yours, so I take the time to post maps so people can see how things stand for their location.

 

I agree with all of what you are saying. I truly do. What I  was referring to, and what makes no sense to me, is posting a snow map that shows 9" over my house when a storm is tracking over Detroit and lacking CAD. It ain't happening.

 

[pasnownut]

11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is true...though I think a lot in our thread recognize the woes of the GFS. I know @pasnownut will often caveat that when he shows what it's saying. 

The NAM gets more hate than it should, though sometimes when it's wrong it can be ridiculously so. 

GFS and NAM often tend to “bounce” around but can sometimes lock in early ie blizzard of 16 for NAM. 

I too think the NAM gets a bad wrap as we’ve all seen struggles wrt various models and their shortcomings. 

that said I often see a look from GFS at 5-7 days out that often ends up close to outcome, and  often look hard at that lead time during winter. Just my years of watching and learning what works and what doesn’t. 
Euro is most consistent, but can be late to the game or out to lunch. This is the fun and challenging that I love about this sport. 
Happy  Sunday everyone. 

[Blizzard of 93]

11 hours ago, Voyager said:

OMG... 

Tamaqua will be the place to be this Winter! 

[Blizzard of 93]

12 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The major theme last winter was certainly not a lack of opportunities, as it was fairly active storm wise. It was a major persistence in the storm track going north/northwest of PA as we came into the short term and then the reality of the event itself. Was sort of why models like the GFS gave us practically a 150% of normal snow season in digital snow in it's mid range. The big problem was the overall pattern vs what the mid term models were trying to do when they did try to give us an event far enough south for a snow event. Going practically the whole JFM period with a hyper +AO and an unfavorable West/Pacific was just a major detriment for our region to track a low south of the mason-dixon OR score notable frozen on events that put a primary west of PA due to a lack of arctic air availability via CAD. 

 I don't really recall the NAM being notably horrendous last winter. It's better with mesoscale features but one has to be mindful that it can be a bit, overzealous at times with it's output on said mesoscale features. A lot of the heartbreak happened before we really got into NAM range as mentioned above. We go through rough patches in any winter whether it's a good or bad one overall. Last winter was that one that just was a wall to wall disaster for this region. Once you got to about the US 6 corridor in northern PA and up into interior NY State it was a different story. Ugh, been trying to forget last winter lol. 

If anyone's actually wandering what I'm thinking about this coming winter attm since I'm on the topic, well.. I'm approaching it with cautious pessimism right now. I'm seeing some potential La-Nina influences that may come into play as we've been running cool in the ENSO region this summer (especially in 1+2 and 3). It's still considered "neutral" right now in official terms using the 3 month average but SST anomalies in the whole ENSO region overall have def cooled some the last couple weeks. CPC has been putting a 50-55% likelihood of a Nina developing this fall into the winter. I think it would be a reasonable bet to say we're heading toward a winter that's a cold neutral or weak La-Nina. Personally, I'm more concerned about precipitation than temps. A more traditional nina-type winter setup is more dominant northern branch and not much southern branch action. Northern branch stuff that produce a lot of our lighter, advisory type snows was practically non-existent last winter, so I think that could be a net positive compared to last winter. I think the cold will be there, at least more often than last winter. Having such a persistent +AO regime return once again for a second winter in a row is very unlikely. What happens with the northern Pac and the MJO will have also have a major say in things. Having an actual wintry period in December has been somewhat of a lost art form in our region the last few years, so I'd say we're due for that. Ninas can be early starters if we in fact have one late in the fall. Just some way too early thoughts, the heat and the daily precip misses are getting old.

Thanks for posting your early thoughts on this coming Winter. I agree that we should try to forget about last Winter.

If the weak La Niña comes to fruition, it will be important to score some snow in December. Also, I wouldn’t mind a pattern of northern branch systems this Winter. Anything is better than watching every storm track west of PA with no blocking. I think many of us would be fine if we could nickel & dime our way to climo average this year with several 2 to 4 inch snow events. Of course, it would be much better if we could mix in just 1 double digit snowstorm sometime this season!

[Bubbler86]

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, I thought that your historic drought made your grass toast this year for good!

You must not be signed up for my weekly grass update email.  PM me your address and I will get you on the list.  We had a little grass survive under trees but about 2/3 of our yard died and is now weeds or brown dead grass.  We are going to be putting about a grand in overseeding this fall.