Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

[Bubbler86]

41 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

No one is really talking in the Pittsburgh forum, so I'll slide east a bit.  Since it's been so dry, does anyone think the temperatures being advertised are underdone?

That's an interesting thought.  I was not sure so did look up and confirm dry soil conducts heat more efficiently than wet.  With that said I wonder how far down that theory applies to as most of this time of the year the soil will be dry just a day or so after it rains.  But base don the Euro deception lots of back yard bulbs are going to break 100 next week.  Also many of the members in the Eastern side of this forum have had near or above normal rain the last two months so different results possibly.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

No one is really talking in the Pittsburgh forum, so I'll slide east a bit.  Since it's been so dry, does anyone think the temperatures being advertised are underdone?

Modeled temps have been so poor for the past six or whatever months, I won't be shocked at all if they're undoing next week's heat. 

[Ahoff]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That's an interesting thought.  I was not sure so did look up and confirm dry soil conducts heat more efficiently than wet.  With that said I wonder how far down that theory applies to as most of this time of the year the soil will be dry just a day or so after it rains.  But base don the Euro deception lots of back yard bulbs are going to break 100 next week.  Also many of the members in the Eastern side of this forum have had near or above normal rain the last two months so different results possibly.

I've been wondering, because May and June ended nearly 4" below average here.  It's been great, but definitely dry.  Yesterday we were expected to hit 85 or 86, but popped up to 88.  In Pittsburgh it is unusual to overachieve on summer temps.  Usually if we are forecast to hit 90 or 91 we usually stop at 88 or 89.  Yesterday we overachieved by two degrees, that's odd.  Conversely, though, today was supposed to be around 86, but looks to fall short a few degrees.

Having nearly 10 straight days at 90 to 91 seems kind of implausible since it is so consistent, so was wondering if maybe they are underestimating some of these highs.

[Voyager]

Bring on the heat! It ain't summer without it... 

But we here in the east have been wetter than other parts of the sub forum. What we lose in temperature we may gain in humidity.

[Ahoff]

Just now, Voyager said:

Bring on the heat! It ain't summer without it... 

But we here in the east have been wetter than other parts of the sub forum. What we lose in temperature we may gain in humidity.

That's what I am hoping for, low humidity with this heat.  It makes all the difference.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I've been wondering, because May and June ended nearly 4" below average here.  It's been great, but definitely dry.  Yesterday we were expected to hit 85 or 86, but popped up to 88.  In Pittsburgh it is unusual to overachieve on summer temps.  Usually if we are forecast to hit 90 or 91 we usually stop at 88 or 89.  Yesterday we overachieved by two degrees, that's odd.  Conversely, though, today was supposed to be around 86, but looks to fall short a few degrees.

Having nearly 10 straight days at 90 to 91 seems kind of implausible since it is so consistent, so was wondering if maybe they are underestimating some of these highs.

Here in Franklin County we over 6" under normal.  A pretty extreme figure considering May and June are two of the 3 wettest months.  My Observations for the S Central part of the state is that models, especially the GFS, are understating temps very consistently especially days where it is sunny the majority of the day.  So for next week I think the Euro is the best bet for forecasting at the moment.  The 12Z Euro is still coming out on Pivotal but start of the week it still looks just as hot as last night's run.   But your results of normally underachieving are not what we have seen over here IMO.

 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

No one is really talking in the Pittsburgh forum, so I'll slide east a bit.  Since it's been so dry, does anyone think the temperatures being advertised are underdone?

We talk about this issue a good bit in this thread - I'm a proponent that temps usually bust higher than advertised, and if it's been dry than even more so. I haven't looked at what models are saying mostly because I don't really want the bad news so I'm not sure what is being spit out right now. All I know is that it sounds like we won't get cheated on the heat next week.  

[Ahoff]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here in Franklin County we over 6" under normal.  A pretty extreme figure considering May and June are two of the 3 wettest months.  My Observations for the S Central part of the state is that models, especially the GFS, are understating temps very consistently especially days where it is sunny the majority of the day.  So for next week I think the Euro is the best bet for forecasting at the moment.  The 12Z Euro is still coming out on Pivotal but start of the week it still looks just as hot as last night's run.   But your results of normally underachieving are not what we have seen over here IMO.

 

 

 

 

By normally underachieving, I mean as observations for years and years, not just this year, lol!

[Ahoff]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

We talk about this issue a good bit in this thread - I'm a proponent that temps usually bust higher than advertised, and if it's been dry than even more so. I haven't looked at what models are saying mostly because I don't really want the bad news so I'm not sure what is being spit out right now. All I know is that it sounds like we won't get cheated on the heat next week.  

I know in my area, the Euro has put out a few 95-97 degree readings early next week.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Ahoff said:

By normally underachieving, I mean as observations for years and years, not just this year, lol!

So do I with over achieving for the at least the last 3 summers.  Its not often that we stay under the forecast high unless unexpected precip occurs. Maybe a degree or two under but for me anything within 3 degrees is good enough and I would say, educated guess, we have over achieved by 4 or more degrees 2/3 of the summer days the last 3 years especially using the GFS as a baseline. 

[canderson]

Speaking of dryness

https://twitter.com/NortheastRCC/status/1278393006505316355?s=20

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So do I with over achieving for the at least the last 3 summers.  Its not often that we stay under the forecast high unless unexpected precip occurs. Maybe a degree or two under but for me anything within 3 degrees is good enough and I would say, educated guess, we have over achieved by 4 or more degrees 2/3 of the summer days the last 3 years especially using the GFS as a baseline. 

100% agree with this! 

[canderson]

https://twitter.com/NortheastRCC/status/1278393006505316355?s=20

Edit: Oh, that didn't embed. Click on it - a chart of how dry the entire NE is. 

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

Oh, that didn't embed. Click on it - a chart of how dry the entire NE is. 

Plus it shows all 35 "climate sites" average above normal temps in June.  No surprise just more  confirmation that normal is no longer normal.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

32 minutes ago, canderson said:

https://twitter.com/NortheastRCC/status/1278393006505316355?s=20

Edit: Oh, that didn't embed. Click on it - a chart of how dry the entire NE is. 

 

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Plus it shows all 35 "climate sites" average above normal temps in June.  No surprise just more  confirmation that normal is no longer normal.

 

Given what our posters have reported in this thread, that map looks spot on to me. Nice little area of AN rainfall showing up in parts of York and extreme western Lanco, other than that, lots of oranges and reds to confirm other area's dryness. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Modeled temps have been so poor for the past six or whatever months, I won't be shocked at all if they're undoing next week's heat. 

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing and wanted to bring that up the other week. Is there any technical reason why models have been performing so poorly with temps all year? I don't remember them being this bad any other year.

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing and wanted to bring that up the other week. Is there any technical reason why models have been performing so poorly with temps all year? I don't remember them being this bad any other year.

FV3.  LOL

[Superstorm]

Tomorrow is gonna be a scorcher.


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[Itstrainingtime]

Horst has a video on Twitter that he took Tuesday in the Big Horn mountains - it was 34 degrees and snowing...(on June 30th)

I need to switch vacation destinations next year. 

[paweather]

4 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Tomorrow is gonna be a scorcher.


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Dog Days Of Summer! UGHHHH.....Got to go out to my Sisters pool tomorrow. Can't stand these types of days coming up into next week. I like heat but Humidity zero love for that.

[canderson]

I dislike heat but it should be hot the next two or so weeks, honestly. 

[Superstorm]

I dislike heat but it should be hot the next two or so weeks, honestly. 

I could see someone hit 100F tomorrow.


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[Itstrainingtime]

I don't know...CTP is calling for a high of 92 here. At 9:30AM it's 86.4.

[Itstrainingtime]

93.8 at 12:30pm. 

[Bubbler86]

94 here.  Not thinking we get to 100.  Gfs Poo-Poo's the heat wave a bit next week.  Euro says chance of 100 in LSV every day. 

 

And precip wise the GFS and Euro are opposite as well.   GFS with 2-3" of rain the next 7 days in the LSV.  Euro almost nothing. 

[Superstorm]

97F in Lancaster. Probably not hitting a hundred but it is baking out.


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[Cashtown_Coop]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

94 here.  Not thinking we get to 100.  Gfs Poo-Poo's the heat wave a bit next week.  Euro says chance of 100 in LSV every day. 

 

And precip wise the GFS and Euro are opposite as well.   GFS with 2-3" of rain the next 7 days in the LSV.  Euro almost nothing. 

After sitting at 77 at 7a this morn I was figuring for upper 90s.  So far I’ve hit 93 for a high.   Back in 2012 I remember an 80 degree 7a temp then reached 102 for the day which is my highest temp I’ve recorded here since starting in 2008 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

After sitting at 77 at 7a this morn I was figuring for upper 90s.  So far I’ve hit 93 for a high.   Back in 2012 I remember an 80 degree 7a temp then reached 102 for the day which is my highest temp I’ve recorded here since starting in 2008 

I remember some day in the 70's or 80's it approached 110 in York where I was at the point.  Think it made 106 or 107. 

[Ahoff]

Seems Pittsburgh will underachieve again, as usual.  Looks like official readings stopped at 89.  Maybe there's an inter hour 90+ reading, but wouldn't be surprised if it didn't make it.  Made it to 88 just before noon, so it seemed like a slam dunk 92-94 degree day, but in true fashion the airport measurement doesn't move after that.  Probably best to expect to come up short by 3-4 degrees from forecasted highs for this heat wave for my area.  Usually, how it is anyway.

 

It's weird because everywhere else around the area will touch at least 90 on days like this, but the airport rarely does.  I think something is wrong with the measurement device.  Also, I think they're observed weather is always off.  Many times it will say the day is mostly cloudy, when it very clearly is clear or mostly sunny everywhere, with the satellite showing no clouds.  I think that's why they classify Pittsburgh as very cloudy, the official recordings are always off.

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Seems Pittsburgh will underachieve again, as usual.  Looks like official readings stopped at 89.  Maybe there's an inter hour 90+ reading, but wouldn't be surprised if it didn't make it.  Made it to 88 just before noon, so it seemed like a slam dunk 92-94 degree day, but in true fashion the airport measurement doesn't move after that.  Probably best to expect to come up short by 3-4 degrees from forecasted highs for this heat wave for my area.  Usually, how it is anyway.

 

It's weird because everywhere else around the area will touch at least 90 on days like this, but the airport rarely does.  I think something is wrong with the measurement device.  Also, I think they're observed weather is always off.  Many times it will say the day is mostly cloudy, when it very clearly is clear or mostly sunny everywhere, with the satellite showing no clouds.  I think that's why they classify Pittsburgh as very cloudy, the official recordings are always off.

Your post sounds similar to @Blizzard of 93 who thinks the MDT airport measurements are very often wrong. I think most of us on the Eastern half of the state at least verified today if not over achieved.  Forecast high at MDT was 98 as of now but I think it was set lower this AM and it is 96 right now.