Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Well i'm hangin my hopes on the GFS ens guidance for .5-1" of precip this week. I'm using my new winter skills of not going beyond 7 days....but if one peeks, yeah there is a pig ridge in the central basin later this week, but heights seem to lower as we get into early next week. Not saying big relief, but maybe a respite if the GFS camp has any merit. maybe its just me weeniecasting/cherrypickin what i want from the models as well....dunno? Unfortunately from what I have seen the GFS (Fv3) has really not done well during the last 3 months. Both being low on temps and way too high on qpf chances on average. I wish it had been more right. It is indeed MUCH wetter for all the southern tief of PA this week especially near the Mason-Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 92.8 here at 11AM... ...but there is a breeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 92.8 here at 11AM... ...but there is a breeze! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Unfortunately from what I have seen the GFS (Fv3) has really not done well during the last 3 months. Both being low on temps and way too high on qpf chances on average. I wish it had been more right. It is indeed MUCH wetter for all the southern tief of PA this week especially near the Mason-Dixon. Yeah in truth I've not followed, and just casually peek to see how ugly things look. Guess I could look at verification scores. Both ens members seemed similar in 500 evolution, so i pushed a few chips in.... I have noticed the GFS op seemingly being to cold vs verifcation but again just glancing, not studying. GFS has been consistent w/ Wed and beyond chances for precip from late last week, so i guess that got my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah in truth I've not followed, and just casually peek to see how ugly things look. Guess I could look at verification scores. Both ens members seemed similar in 500 evolution, so i pushed a few chips in.... I have noticed the GFS op seemingly being to cold vs verification but again just glancing, not studying. And I was just concentrating on the OP and forecasts 7 days or less vs. ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And I was just concentrating on the OP and forecasts 7 days or less vs. ens. guess we have all angles covered then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: guess we have all angles covered then 12Z Op actually spins up a wave going right under us and makes tomorrow a soaking rain (1/4"to 1/2" LSV wide) and that is after some Mason-Dixon love today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z Op actually spins up a wave going right under us and makes tomorrow a soaking rain (1/4"to 1/2" LSV wide and that is after some Mason-Dixon love today. thats what i've been "concentrating" on. Seems like enough instability during mid/late week, that we could gin up some precip opps. Of course the ridging could act like like a shredding machine as we close in, but I'd not discount pop up events. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Well the Dog Days of Summer are indeed in place right now. Yesterday was downright brutal. Gorgeous sunny day but couldn't enjoy it unless you had a pool same as today. I did look at the 12z GFS as Bubbler pointed out could be some moisture overnight tomorrow night. But the excessive heat doesn't appear to end anytime soon at least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: thats what i've been "concentrating" on. Seems like enough instability during mid/late week, that we could gin up some precip opps. Of course the ridging could act like like a shredding machine as we close in, but I'd not discount pop up events. Thats all. Would very much like to see the Euro show something this afternoon. GFS is literally on an island with all this rain though the Nam does have some moisture the next few days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Holy crap, Lancaster is at 95 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Holy crap, Lancaster is at 95 already. Think too much high clouds to hit a 100F today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 94/66 here at 12:30, which gives me a HI of 97. A bit lower than yesterday thanks to lower dews. Going back to Friday, my noon time dew points were: Friday - 73 Saturday - 64 Sunday - 71 Today - 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Think too much high clouds to hit a 100F today. . Interesting, very little in the way of any cloudiness here. A few wisps of high clouds and a distant Cumulus field is just now starting to build to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 94 here now. Last night's overnight low was 81. It's pretty rare for an overnight low to not hit 80 or below here. I'd love to see how often that happens. It has to be single digits over a 2 or 3 year stretch I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Interesting, very little in the way of any cloudiness here. A few wisps of high clouds and a distant Cumulus field is just now starting to build to my west. we had cloud deck till 9am, then it started to clear. Sunny n cookin now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: thats what i've been "concentrating" on. Seems like enough instability during mid/late week, that we could gin up some precip opps. Of course the ridging could act like like a shredding machine as we close in, but I'd not discount pop up events. Thats all. Funny guy Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Funny guy Icon actually not too dissimilar to the 12k. maybe the word POOF is appropriate (for LSV anyway)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Up to 95.4/64.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: actually not too dissimilar to the 12k. maybe the word POOF is appropriate (for LSV anyway)? EC also keeps the LSV dry despite several rain chances moving in from the West. More poofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 EC also keeps the LSV dry despite several rain chances moving in from the West. More poofs.That high will eventually move just far enough East to allow those storms to roll the LSV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 That high will eventually move just far enough East to allow those storms to roll the LSV..Got to get into the ring of fire.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: That high will eventually move just far enough East to allow those storms to roll the LSV. . One of the poofs is a 1015 Surface Wave crossing the Northern Delmarva with almost zero surface reflection/results. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: EC also keeps the LSV dry despite several rain chances moving in from the West. More poofs. maybe we can call them popcorn farts. I crack myself up sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 this would make some folks happy. I"m in.... ARW2 is more 80 south, but still similar. They are meso's so maybe something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: this would make some folks happy. I"m in.... RGEM likes that Tue low to soak us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 New high for the year, 98 here now and slowly rising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: New high for the year, 98 here now and slowly rising... Bring the triple digits home. Its so windy here it does not feel that hot out if you stay out of the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Bring the triple digits home. Its so windy here it does not feel that hot out if you stay out of the sun. I got to 98.2 but have backed off to 97.6 right now. It's breezy here as well. I've had almost wall to wall sunshine and still do but it doesn't look like I'll make the century mark barring a last minute surge. I even sent my wife outside to start talking to the neighbor women but still not enough hot air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 I got to 98.2 but have backed off to 97.6 right now. It's breezy here as well. I've had almost wall to wall sunshine and still do but it doesn't look like I'll make the century mark barring a last minute surge. I even sent my wife outside to start talking to the neighbor women but still not enough hot air. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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