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Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat


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  On 8/14/2020 at 11:48 AM, paweather said:

6z GFS is going the EURO way as well. 

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Yep.  That has been a trend this summer.  Euro did not do nearly this well over the winter especially in short term.

A ridiculous 75 degrees and 70% humidity this AM.   This literally is Florida weather for the time of the day. 

 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 11:51 AM, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  That has been a trend this summer.  Euro did not do nearly this well over the winter especially in short term.

A ridiculous 75 degrees and 70% humidity this AM.   This literally is Florida weather for the time of the day. 

 

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Exactly.....EURO was not good this winter but the trend is better now. Same here as far as heat and humidity. 

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  On 8/13/2020 at 8:40 PM, Bubbler86 said:

They must be doing old fashioned meteorology and ignoring the Euro's influence on a decision. 

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if you looked at 6z GooFuS, it's getting on board w/ da King's caravan to dryville.

The "moist" period advertised for yesterday through Saturday (including flood watch has me overflowing w/ stinky smelling popcorn.

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  On 8/14/2020 at 12:29 PM, pasnownut said:

just catching up here and yeah sounds like the king nailed this one.

 

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Yea, it has gotten so bad the last couple months that I hesitate to even look at the GFS at this point.  The thing is the Nam, Icon, CMC had a similar wet period for Thur-Sun and they are are turning out to be wrong except Dr. Drought. 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 12:37 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, it has gotten so bad the last couple months that I hesitate to even look at the GFS at this point.  The thing is the Nam, Icon, CMC had a similar wet period for Thur-Sun and they are are turning out to be wrong except Dr. Drought. 

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and thats what I was hangin my hat on.  Enough models were showing showery, so i bought in.  Looking at ensembles from early week, there also was a general consensus of active times in said period.  

In a word......P O O F

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  On 8/14/2020 at 12:50 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

This graph has been losing pretty colors with every update for the past few days. (2 days ago, it was showing > 3" for most of southern PA)

p168i.gif?1597409303

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That chart shows why some people in Arizona and Nevada fill their yards with rocks instead of trying to grow grass. 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 12:53 PM, Bubbler86 said:

That chart shows why some people in Arizona and Nevada fill their yards with rocks instead of trying to grow grass. 

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We have friends from out west who vacation on the east coast every August. A few years ago they came east with no roof over their home and didn't seem concerned at all. Friend said he's been living out there for almost 40 years and it's rained twice during August over that period of time. 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 12:56 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

We have friends from out west who vacation on the east coast every August. A few years ago they came east with no roof over their home and didn't seem concerned at all. Friend said he's been living out there for almost 40 years and it's rained twice during August over that period of time. 

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That is pretty crazy.  I would have been fearful leaving a home with ho roof. 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 12:58 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

I feel bad for those that really need the rain. You and I have been more fortunate than a lot around these parts. 

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This winter people might have to pour water into the Susky up north if MDT folks want  their normal ice jams. Lots of dark red's on this map.  I believe that is bad as it can get.  My way and West/North from there.  Lots of un-ranked as well so I bet there are a lot more reds in reality. 

 

image.thumb.png.80fcdae3efd3b861261f013be83aa3f9.png

 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 1:26 PM, paweather said:

Where is NWS seeing this for my area:

Sunday

Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
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If you read their AFD they are torn between the Euro and Icon vs.  everything else.  Most models bring a weak low right under us and lay down the goods on Sunday for the southern half of PA.  See Nam below.   Unfortunately pretty much nothing helps northern PA now.

image.png.fdbfb42dd64b3f31624fc1d7dd566ea8.png

 

 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 1:49 PM, Bubbler86 said:

If you read their AFD they are torn between the Euro and everything else.  Most models bring a weak low right under us and lay down the goods on Sunday for the southern half of PA.  See Nam below.   Unfortunately pretty much nothing helps northern PA now.

image.png.fdbfb42dd64b3f31624fc1d7dd566ea8.png

 

 

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Thanks. My vibe is even the south doesn't get this much but hope I'm wrong. 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 2:07 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

My wag is that the southern tier sees .25-.50" Sunday. I think this isn't fully resolved yet. 

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Nam might still show that but it definitively lessened the totals from 6Z to 12Z. 

 

Edit-It actually lowered the totals in Western PA but still going to lay down 1" plus in some areas S Central and South East PA. 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 2:12 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Nam might still show that but it definitively lessened the totals from 6Z to 12Z. 

 

Edit-It actually lowered the totals in Western PA but still going to lay down 1" plus in some areas S Central and South East PA. 

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Looking at the 12z NAM on Tropical Tidbits I don't see the 1" plus? 

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  On 8/14/2020 at 2:53 PM, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  The safest best right now would be to say basically no rain for anyone.  Fingers crossed its not that bad though. 

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Agreed. If I could have gone back to the NWS on Monday and their forecast for the week it looked like a sure chance for rain everyday. And I have gotten little. 

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