Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 6z GFS is going the EURO way as well. Yep. That has been a trend this summer. Euro did not do nearly this well over the winter especially in short term. A ridiculous 75 degrees and 70% humidity this AM. This literally is Florida weather for the time of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yep. That has been a trend this summer. Euro did not do nearly this well over the winter especially in short term. A ridiculous 75 degrees and 70% humidity this AM. This literally is Florida weather for the time of the day. Exactly.....EURO was not good this winter but the trend is better now. Same here as far as heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 15 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: They must be doing old fashioned meteorology and ignoring the Euro's influence on a decision. if you looked at 6z GooFuS, it's getting on board w/ da King's caravan to dryville. The "moist" period advertised for yesterday through Saturday (including flood watch has me overflowing w/ stinky smelling popcorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Hate to say it but we could have just posted the Euro as the official NWS forecast and would have been pretty much right. Euro shows little to no Precip for most of PA for the next 10 days. just catching up here and yeah sounds like the king nailed this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: just catching up here and yeah sounds like the king nailed this one. Yea, it has gotten so bad the last couple months that I hesitate to even look at the GFS at this point. The thing is the Nam, Icon, CMC had a similar wet period for Thur-Sun and they are are turning out to be wrong except Dr. Drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, it has gotten so bad the last couple months that I hesitate to even look at the GFS at this point. The thing is the Nam, Icon, CMC had a similar wet period for Thur-Sun and they are are turning out to be wrong except Dr. Drought. and thats what I was hangin my hat on. Enough models were showing showery, so i bought in. Looking at ensembles from early week, there also was a general consensus of active times in said period. In a word......P O O F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 This graph has been losing pretty colors with every update for the past few days. (2 days ago, it was showing > 3" for most of southern PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: This graph has been losing pretty colors with every update for the past few days. (2 days ago, it was showing > 3" for most of southern PA) That chart shows why some people in Arizona and Nevada fill their yards with rocks instead of trying to grow grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This graph has been losing pretty colors with every update for the past few days. (2 days ago, it was showing > 3" for most of southern PA) Yeah i've been watching the total qpf's and seeing the same. Morning GFS op is bone dry for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That chart shows why some people in Arizona and Nevada fill their yards with rocks instead of trying to grow grass. We have friends from out west who vacation on the east coast every August. A few years ago they came east with no roof over their home and didn't seem concerned at all. Friend said he's been living out there for almost 40 years and it's rained twice during August over that period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah i've been watching the total qpf's and seeing the same. Morning GFS op is bone dry for CTP. I feel bad for those that really need the rain. You and I have been more fortunate than a lot around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We have friends from out west who vacation on the east coast every August. A few years ago they came east with no roof over their home and didn't seem concerned at all. Friend said he's been living out there for almost 40 years and it's rained twice during August over that period of time. That is pretty crazy. I would have been fearful leaving a home with ho roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I feel bad for those that really need the rain. You and I have been more fortunate than a lot around these parts. This winter people might have to pour water into the Susky up north if MDT folks want their normal ice jams. Lots of dark red's on this map. I believe that is bad as it can get. My way and West/North from there. Lots of un-ranked as well so I bet there are a lot more reds in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Where is NWS seeing this for my area: Sunday Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Is Matt Moore now in Real Estate? He was great in this forum during Winter Storms. Did he leave the weather world? Anyone know? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, paweather said: Where is NWS seeing this for my area: Sunday Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. If you read their AFD they are torn between the Euro and Icon vs. everything else. Most models bring a weak low right under us and lay down the goods on Sunday for the southern half of PA. See Nam below. Unfortunately pretty much nothing helps northern PA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Is Matt Moore now in Real Estate? He was great in this forum during Winter Storms. Did he leave the weather world? Anyone know? Pretty sure he is he was advertising houses on his twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Just now, Anduril said: Pretty sure he is he was advertising houses on his twitter Wow. Well hope he still keeps an eye on the winter weather for us. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If you read their AFD they are torn between the Euro and everything else. Most models bring a weak low right under us and lay down the goods on Sunday for the southern half of PA. See Nam below. Unfortunately pretty much nothing helps northern PA now. Thanks. My vibe is even the south doesn't get this much but hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Thanks. My vibe is even the south doesn't get this much but hope I'm wrong. That is the trend. If the 12Z Nam holds then there is still some question. FWIW 12Z Nam still rains in the LSV today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 14, 2020 Author Share Posted August 14, 2020 My wag is that the southern tier sees .25-.50" Sunday. I think this isn't fully resolved yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My wag is that the southern tier sees .25-.50" Sunday. I think this isn't fully resolved yet. Nam might still show that but it definitively lessened the totals from 6Z to 12Z. Edit-It actually lowered the totals in Western PA but still going to lay down 1" plus in some areas S Central and South East PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam might still show that but it definitively lessened the totals from 6Z to 12Z. Edit-It actually lowered the totals in Western PA but still going to lay down 1" plus in some areas S Central and South East PA. Looking at the 12z NAM on Tropical Tidbits I don't see the 1" plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Just now, paweather said: Looking at the 12z NAM on Tropical Tidbits I don't see the 1" plus? Not a lot of people but some in S Central and moving over toward S/E in Adams but the trend was definitely less than 6 Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Not a lot of people but some in S Central and moving over toward S/E in Adams but the trend was definitely less than 6 Z. K seems like everything this week into the weekend keeps pushing the moisture south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, paweather said: K seems like everything this week into the weekend keeps pushing the moisture south and east. No doubt. The safest best right now would be to say basically no rain for anyone. Fingers crossed its not that bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No doubt. The safest best right now would be to say basically no rain for anyone. Fingers crossed its not that bad though. Agreed. If I could have gone back to the NWS on Monday and their forecast for the week it looked like a sure chance for rain everyday. And I have gotten little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 1 hour ago, paweather said: Wow. Well hope he still keeps an eye on the winter weather for us. :-) wow. thats a shame. Good dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, paweather said: SO what is the meaning of areal precip? I know most of the LSV is below normal for the last 60 days so it cannot mean actual precip. Here if you take Mid June to Mid August we are about 4" below "average" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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