yoda Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and early Tuesday, and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The non-tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been following for the past couple of days off of the U.S. east coast has developed enough organized convection near the center to be classified as subtropical depression. The subtropical status is due to the low-level circulation center being co-located beneath an upper-level cold low as seen in water vapor imagery. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on earlier ASCAT wind data indicating numerous surface wind vectors of 26-28 kt in the southern semicircle, along with a TAFB subtropical satellite classification of ST1.5/25-30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 075/08 kt. Subtropical Depression Four is located north of a deep-layer ridge and is being influenced by weak westerly mid- to upper-level flow. The cyclone is forecast by all of the global and regional models to move east-northeastward tonight and then turn northeastward on Tuesday. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected Tuesday night through Thursday when the system is forecast to be located over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The cyclone should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low or dissipate on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the simple consensus aids TVCN and GFEX and the NOAA-HCCA corrected consensus. The cyclone is beginning to move over a ridge of higher SSTs of 26.0-26.5 deg C in the northern extent of the Gulf Stream. The forecast track takes the subtropical depression down the length of the axis of warmer water during the next 12-18 h, so there is the potential for the cyclone to become a subtropical storm during that time, especially given the large pool of cold air aloft, with 200-mb temperatures of near -58 deg C and 500-mb temperatures of about -10 deg C which is creating a lot of instability. After the system moves off of the warm ridge and into sharply cooler water around 36 hours or so, gradual weakening is expected, with transition to an extratropical cyclone forecast by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models ICON, IVCN, and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.2N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 Not much change at the 11pm advisory BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 64.6W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 64.6 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible early Tuesday, and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 Gone in the next 60 to 72 hours... still a slight chance to get named Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The cyclone has little or no deep convection near its center, and remains situated beneath an upper-level low. Therefore, the system is still a subtropical cyclone and the intensity is kept at 30 kt in agreement with the most recent satellite classification from TAFB. The 30-kt intensity was also supported by recent scatterometer data. There is a small window of opportunity for strengthening since the system should remain over a relatively warm Gulf Stream eddy for 12 hours or so. Thereafter, a weakening trend is expected to begin and the system should make the transition to an extratropical cyclone over cooler waters in 36 hours or sooner. The global models indicate that the system should open up into a trough in a couple of days so the official forecast shows dissipation by 72 hours. It would not be surprising if the system meets its demise sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance. The motion continues east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Over the next few days, the cyclone should remain embedded in a branch of west-southwesterlies that is split off from the main mid-latitude flow. There is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will turn northeastward with some acceleration during the next 48-60 hours. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is also close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 38.7N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 39.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 40.3N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2020 Author Share Posted June 24, 2020 We got Dolly earlier this afternoon BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...DOLLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF STREAM CURRENT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 61.1W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2020 Author Share Posted June 24, 2020 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's structure has continued to improve somewhat during the day with convective banding now extending around the eastern and northern side of the circulation. While water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is still in the vicinity of Dolly, that feature is displaced from the cyclone a bit, with some anticyclonic outflow noted in the cirrus canopy. This structure further supports the analysis of Dolly's transition to a tropical storm. For intensity, there is a wide range among satellite estimates, with TAFB and SAB ranging from 25-35 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates between 45-50 kt. The initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory, matching what was shown by the earlier scatterometer data. Dolly continues to move east-northeastward with an initial motion of 060/10 kt. Strengthening mid-latitude southwesterly flow is expected to cause Dolly to turn northeastward and begin accelerating tonight into Wednesday, and the track guidance is in good agreement on the future path and speed of the storm. Dolly's future track will take it over much colder waters and into a higher-shear environment over the next day or so, which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Dissipation is still shown at 48 hours, but global models fields indicate that the circulation could open up before then as the system nears the southeastern tip of Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 40.1N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 41.2N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 43.1N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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