Winter 2020-2021

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

08-09 is one of my favorite seasons. It's not like we had 100+", but for this area I think we ended up near 75" give or take, with a most of that in Dec and Jan. That was a fun season. I still remember the RUC nailing that 2 part Jan event.  

We had one excellent NAO block that entire winter but it was perfectly timed to coincide with a one-eyed pig that developed for the first week to 10 days of Jan 2009.....normally we would have furnaced but we hung tough and even snuck in a couple snow/ice SWFEs before the PAC flipped because the NAO block was holding the confluence in SE Canada....the NAO block broke down right as the PAC flipped back to AK ridging, but that was fine....we had excellent cold delivery and it set the stage for the bitter cold mid-month and the 1-2 punch MLK weekend.

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, roardog said:

They don’t have a precip map as far as I can see, just a percentage of normal snowfall map. Basically the 100% of normal line is along Lake Michigan, so anywhere east of that has below normal snowfall. They have a pocket of less than 75% of normal snowfall around the mid Atlantic region. In other words, our area all the way east into New England is between 75 and 100 percent of normal snowfall. 

I'm just surprised to see below average snow fall under the assumption of a la nina Winter. In much of the midwest, Great Lakes, & New England, temps are just a small piece of the puzzle of how much snow the season will bring. Last Winter was such a mild Winter yet we finished with average snowfall because it started early with a record November snowstorm and ended late with snow through Mother's Day. Just because you see stretches of midwinter bare ground does not mean the snow that has fallen doesn't count lol.  Likewise some of our coldest winters saw average or below average snow fall.

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm just surprised to see below average snow fall under the assumption of a la nina Winter. In much of the midwest, Great Lakes, & New England, temps are just a small piece of the puzzle of how much snow the season will bring. Last Winter was such a mild Winter yet we finished with average snowfall because it started early with a record November snowstorm and ended late with snow through Mother's Day. Just because you see stretches of midwinter bare ground does not mean the snow that has fallen doesn't count lol.  Likewise some of our coldest winters saw average or below average snow fall.

Weak Niña/Cold Neutral....just go with 2013-2014 there...

[J.Spin]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm just surprised to see below average snow fall under the assumption of a la nina Winter. In much of the midwest, Great Lakes, & New England, temps are just a small piece of the puzzle of how much snow the season will bring. Last Winter was such a mild Winter yet we finished with average snowfall because it started early with a record November snowstorm and ended late with snow through Mother's Day. Just because you see stretches of midwinter bare ground does not mean the snow that has fallen doesn't count lol.  Likewise some of our coldest winters saw average or below average snow fall.

What I’ve observed here in the forum is that judging the quality of a winter is very subjective.  I’m sure people can bring up specific examples from last season, or other seasons, but it seems possible for people to receive near average snowfall and still rate the winter as well below average.  To some degree, it seems that what people want is consistency, or they want the snow to be around when they want it to be around.  Realistically, one has to go pretty far north or up in elevation to have consistent snowpack on the ground all winter.  As one heads further south and winter snowfall variability increases, snowpack that comes and goes throughout the winter, and the back and forth of cold storms followed by warm storms, is actually the “average”, or even the “normal” climate.  People don’t typically seem to be keen on that back and forth in the winter though, even if that’s the typical climate.  In areas with high snowfall variability there can still be periods where snowfall/snowpack can be much more consistent, and I think those get incorporated into part of the climate perception, making the inconsistent periods seem worse than they actually are.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

What I’ve observed here in the forum is that judging the quality of a winter is very subjective.  I’m sure people can bring up specific examples from last season, or other seasons, but it seems possible for people to receive near average snowfall and still rate the winter as well below average.  To some degree, it seems that what people want is consistency, or they want the snow to be around when they want it to be around.  Realistically, one has to go pretty far north or up in elevation to have consistent snowpack on the ground all winter.  As one heads further south and winter snowfall variability increases, snowpack that comes and goes throughout the winter, and the back and forth of cold storms followed by warm storms, is actually the “average”, or even the “normal” climate.  People don’t typically seem to be keen on that back and forth in the winter though, even if that’s the typical climate.  In areas with high snowfall variability there can still be periods where snowfall/snowpack can be much more consistent, and I think those get incorporated into part of the climate perception, making the inconsistent periods seem worse than they actually are.

Unrealistic expectations often affect the “grading” imho. Also, I feel like we tend to overlook the bad periods the further out we are from that year...I’ve often caught myself waxing nostalgic about some winters that were good, but probably not objectively any better than a more recent winter that I tend to point out the down periods. 

It also doesn’t help that there is strong variability in climate over short distances. Much of ORH county for example can expect to see 75-85 days of snow cover per winter while you might get only half that really close to the coast less than 40 miles away...and even less than half right along the coast south of BOS and much of far SE MA. With all of us sharing obs, many might feel unjustly screwed out of their share of winter when it’s actually not that uncommon to see multiple right gradient systems. 

[J.Spin]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It also doesn’t help that there is strong variability in climate over short distances. Much of ORH county for example can expect to see 75-85 days of snow cover per winter while you might get only half that really close to the coast less than 40 miles away...and even less than half right along the coast south of BOS and much of far SE MA. With all of us sharing obs, many might feel unjustly screwed out of their share of winter when it’s actually not that uncommon to see multiple right gradient systems. 

That’s an excellent point - New England really does have quite the winter climate gradient if you think about going from the southern coast all the way up to northern Maine, or even just the northern mountains.  Relative comparisons do seem to shape one’s perception of their local weather.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

What I’ve observed here in the forum is that judging the quality of a winter is very subjective.  I’m sure people can bring up specific examples from last season, or other seasons, but it seems possible for people to receive near average snowfall and still rate the winter as well below average.  To some degree, it seems that what people want is consistency, or they want the snow to be around when they want it to be around.  Realistically, one has to go pretty far north or up in elevation to have consistent snowpack on the ground all winter.  As one heads further south and winter snowfall variability increases, snowpack that comes and goes throughout the winter, and the back and forth of cold storms followed by warm storms, is actually the “average”, or even the “normal” climate.  People don’t typically seem to be keen on that back and forth in the winter though, even if that’s the typical climate.  In areas with high snowfall variability there can still be periods where snowfall/snowpack can be much more consistent, and I think those get incorporated into part of the climate perception, making the inconsistent periods seem worse than they actually are.

Yea but it’s also a case of recent big events and big winters this decade/century that has increased our perception of what think our climo is. A couple of good winters in a row with big KU’s makes it seem like that is the norm and not the exception. Most have been spoiled, especially EMA. 

Regarding rating average winters...how we get to average, matters. Two Nov snows and a couple Mar snows while DJF suck will skew the grade negatively while a typical winter of varied results but with snow events in the heart of winter is fine. I don’t expect nor care for sustained wire to wire pack winters here but I do expect a couple of snows in each of DJF. If those crap out, I don’t care what happens in March or April...sure, I’ll enjoy it if it snows but it’s not positively affecting my grade much, if at all. Winter already failed the test at that point, there are no retakes. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I grade everything an F unless we have a Mount Rainer Winter .....

but 10 plus rain storms From Xmas to Feb 28 will do the trick in Nashua.

I’m doing everything I can to get out of SNE in the winter . 

I’m looking at land or also if not this year there is a M2M lease at 1860’ at Bolton Valley starting soon. I will find something .

 

 

 

[beavis1729]

55 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That’s an excellent point - New England really does have quite the winter climate gradient if you think about going from the southern coast all the way up to northern Maine, or even just the northern mountains.  Relative comparisons do seem to shape one’s perception of their local weather.

Agree...and the Midwest does too, of course mostly driven by latitude instead of distance to the coast...although there's some relative temperature moderation immediately downwind of the Great Lakes. 

As an example...STL hardly has winter, I-80 in Illinois is very limited winter, Chicago is in between (where you can run a good 2-3 week stretch of winter sometimes, with crap for the other 9 weeks), Madison WI is decent, then central WI northward is much more consistent winter.  The gradient between 40N and 44N in the Midwest is pretty staggering in a typical winter; not too many miles as the crow flies.  If you drew a contour map of Average Annual Snow Depth Days (SDDs) in the Midwest, you'd see a crazy gradient by latitude.  Normal high temps in January range from around 40F at 40N, to 22F at 44N. 

Apologies if this is going a bit off-topic.  Nice to be in this sub-forum with the banter and good discussion about winter...keep it up.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

What I’ve observed here in the forum is that judging the quality of a winter is very subjective.  I’m sure people can bring up specific examples from last season, or other seasons, but it seems possible for people to receive near average snowfall and still rate the winter as well below average.  To some degree, it seems that what people want is consistency, or they want the snow to be around when they want it to be around.  Realistically, one has to go pretty far north or up in elevation to have consistent snowpack on the ground all winter.  As one heads further south and winter snowfall variability increases, snowpack that comes and goes throughout the winter, and the back and forth of cold storms followed by warm storms, is actually the “average”, or even the “normal” climate.  People don’t typically seem to be keen on that back and forth in the winter though, even if that’s the typical climate.  In areas with high snowfall variability there can still be periods where snowfall/snowpack can be much more consistent, and I think those get incorporated into part of the climate perception, making the inconsistent periods seem worse than they actually are.

 I agree 100%. Me personally? I would take a cold Winter with average snow fall and nonstop snow cover in a heartbeat over I miles Winter with above average snow cover and frequent thaws ( Of course I would certainly take the latter  In many other situations lol).  Obviously my preference is for every Winter to be like 2013-14, but I know that is completely unrealistic. It's one thing for wx weenies to want snow all the time, I get that, but it really does seem that many weenies have very unrealistic expectations of what Winter should be. I could probably go to each subforum on and review an average Winter and the posts would be 90% negative.

 

As for the non wx public? Of course everyone recognizes a historic severe winter like 2013-14 or ratter like 2011-12 for what they are, but outside the extremes, my observation of the general public here in SE Michigan is that they rate harshness of the Winter based on how often snow was on the ground and how cold it was more so than how much snow actually fell.  After a mild winter that's dominated by freeze/thaw, snow/bare cycles, we could easily tally above average snowfall but the public would say "we had an easy Winter" or "we did not have a lot of snow this year". Likewise, after a cold winter with average or below average snowfall they would say "it's been a long Winter" or "we had a lot of snow this year". 

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Agree...and the Midwest does too, of course mostly driven by latitude instead of distance to the coast...although there's some relative temperature moderation immediately downwind of the Great Lakes. 

As an example...STL hardly has winter, I-80 in Illinois is very limited winter, Chicago is in between (where you can run a good 2-3 week stretch of winter sometimes, with crap for the other 9 weeks), Madison WI is decent, then central WI northward is much more consistent winter.  The gradient between 40N and 43N in the Midwest is pretty staggering in a typical winter; not too many miles as the crow flies.  If you drew a contour map of Average Annual Snow Depth Days (SDDs) in the Midwest, you'd see a crazy gradient.  Normal high temps in January range from around 40F at 40N, to 25F at 43N. 

Apologies if this is going a bit off-topic.  Nice to be in this sub-forum with the banter and good discussion about winter...keep it up.

I'm sure they don't mind as popping in lol, I always check here for the 1st discussions about Winter in late summer lol. It's refreshing to have these conversations again.

 

Michigan is full of microclimates, and not just talking about the well known Lake belts. From a simple snowcover perspective it's very latitude based, so someone who does not pay attention to the weather or the depth of snow and simply goes by if the ground is white, they would probably assume snowfall is very south to north gridded. But that's oh so wrong. In terms of actual snowfall over the course of a season it's crazy how variable it is. Detroit's northern most suburbs, which sit at a higher elevation, average more snow fall than anywhere to the N,S,E,W. They actually average more snow than a portion of north central & northeast lower Michigan, as well as the banana belt of the upper peninsula ( such as Escanaba or Menominee).  Detroit average 43" and Flint 48", Detroits northernmost suburbs which sit smack between those 2 sites average near 60".  Parts of the thumb near the shoreline average significant snowfall but on the West side of the thumb, you will again see less snowfall than actually Detroit sees. The Marquette official observations come from Negaunee, it is literally the next town over but at a much higher elevation, averaging almost double the snowfall that downtown valleyed Marquette city averages. There are off the grid locations in the middle of nowhere on the Lake superior shoreline that can easily see 300+ inches of snow per season, but these are places where literally no one lives and only the most daring snowmobile or will venture to.  If you were to travel West to East across northern lower Michigan, talk about variable snow fall. Traverse City is a pretty good area for heavy snow, but then you get into Gaylord and you're talking the heaviest snow in the lower peninsula, continue on East to the South of Alpena and you're into another banana belt of sorts.  I've never seen a detailed enough map of Michigan average snow fall that is to my liking lol, but what else can you expect in the Great Lakes.

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but it’s also a case of recent big events and big winters this decade/century that has increased our perception of what think our climo is. A couple of good winters in a row with big KU’s makes it seem like that is the norm and not the exception. Most have been spoiled, especially EMA. 

Regarding rating average winters...how we get to average, matters. Two Nov snows and a couple Mar snows while DJF suck will skew the grade negatively while a typical winter of varied results but with snow events in the heart of winter is fine. I don’t expect nor care for sustained wire to wire pack winters here but I do expect a couple of snows in each of DJF. If those crap out, I don’t care what happens in March or April...sure, I’ll enjoy it if it snows but it’s not positively affecting my grade much, if at all. Winter already failed the test at that point, there are no retakes. 

This illustrates the differing expectations in different parts of New England.  At my place or at most other NNE places, we do expect continuous cover, and that deep enough to at least cover the grass.  Bare ground between Christmas and St. Patrick's Day is anathema. - in 22 seasons here we've had that in only 3 Januarys (2000, 2007, 2012, a total of 10 days) and so far the smallest pack in February has been 5" in 2006.  16 of 22 years March had 31 days of cover and a 17th had 30.  We expect what we most often get.

[CoastalWx]

Please be snowy. That is all. 

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

This illustrates the differing expectations in different parts of New England.  At my place or at most other NNE places, we do expect continuous cover, and that deep enough to at least cover the grass.  Bare ground between Christmas and St. Patrick's Day is anathema. - in 22 seasons here we've had that in only 3 Januarys (2000, 2007, 2012, a total of 10 days) and so far the smallest pack in February has been 5" in 2006.  16 of 22 years March had 31 days of cover and a 17th had 30.  We expect what we most often get.

When I look back on the winter and give it some sort of rating/grade, it’s snowfall that is the main factor, so my rating is pretty simple.  Snowpack is important though, so I’ll used that a bit to tip the scales one way or another if the grade is on the edge.  But like you, I absolutely expect continuous snow cover throughout the winter at our site, so lacking that would be a big deal and it would/should indeed affect the perception of the season.  The mean duration for the continuous winter snowpack here is 135 days running from the beginning of December to the end of March, and even in the worst of seasons it’s only dropped to 90 days.  When I just checked the data, I was surprised to see that the abysmal 2015-2016 season wasn’t the low mark for snowpack duration here.  That season’s very low snowfall still produced continuous snowpack for 103 days, and instead it was 2011-2012 with the 90 days because of a relatively late start near the end of December and what must have been a very warm March melting out the snowpack early.

[Torch Tiger]

Please don't be snowy, and keep temps AN. Thanks

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Please be snowy. That is all. 

with good retention please

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

with good retention please

Yeah that's always good..although not realistic where I am.  I just want opportunities. I don't need to jack...just want to have some fun with events. 

[Angus]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Traverse City is a pretty good area for heavy snow, but then you get into Gaylord and you're talking the heaviest snow in the lower peninsula, continue on East to the South of Alpena and you're into another banana belt of sorts.  

Made reference here in past that until recently work got me all over MI - UP and LP - throughout  the year. Traveling by car, I can attest it is an interesting snow climate but one that the locals say is changing rapidly - much more variable according to locals. With that said, been in Gaylord in big snow years and the snow they get there is impressive. Stopped at a Bigby coffee shop in Gaylord early one morning driving from Traverse City in mid-January and there was a group of mother's there complaining that school had been essentially cancelled since Christmas break due to non-stop snow. I was on my up to the Sault which didn't have any real impressive depths, if I recall; but returned to Gaylord that evening and found the settled snow depths to in 5' range. It was only January but the snow was already reaching up to the roof lines.  There is a town, west of Gaylord, called Mancelona that has a permanent snow stake along the train tracks downtown  that stands about 10' tall.

[Typhoon Tip]

To each his/her own... 

For me, I always get a petty kick out of snow depth  - so sort of siding with the retention folk on that by default, but more specifically... the actual vertical stack. 

Whenever we get close....say in the 30" post standard compaction range and surviving storm intervals, it starts to get interesting for me.  My petty kick is to break the 40" on the level, a depth that has only occurred once for me - and the stipulation is...it has to come to me?    Like I don't care about hearing about it Spencer Mass where it's 1200' anyway... It needs to be at or < that 600' and have survived the interim synoptics between snow events.   

That was 1995 ... 2010 ...and 2015... The former made 36" on the level as the static stack height ..which lasted over 2 weeks and I consider the apex of in situ winter in question - 2010 tied 1995.  2015 freak year made 40" but fascinatingly...it couldn't seem to stack deeper.  Each storm only compressed the previous snow back down to 40" or so ...within 24 hours of the storm cessation; the fact that ballast of the snow deposition took place at or < that 10 F may have something to do with that... I recall shoveling big snow piles next to the driveway, and they'd would just up and 'implode' collapsing in on themselves at a certain amount where the fluff factor was too fragile to sustain the weight.   It's another sort of indirect argument I have about that winter, and that the snow storm frequency, albeit fantastic, was fortunate behind what should have been the bigger news story: the exotically cold tropospheric r-wave event and the unrelenting cold that took place.  Without that cold and the same frequency, we'd be likely talking about a 40" month or something - maybe not exactly ... but something like that.  Which would be impressive enough...  I want to see that buck-20 amount at 31 F though.  1995 and 2010 in a lot of ways were more impressive because they did so at a higher relative pwat/temperature ratio and thus required rarer thermodynamic achievement as a dual parametric result.   ...You'll never get the cat to pull it's head out of the bag and agree with that logic on this particular social media...understood - but 2015 was really more about the cold air inflating stack heights.

Anyway, in each case ...if you haven't gotten it down my March one you're typically done - even in 1888, you couldn't get the snow to stay that high before the next rain storm so the retention factor was ironically quite low with that juggernaut.  ...etc..  And, I sense the feeble warmth of sun back by then and that triggers my taking flight on the winter season ...  I don't even give a shit any more as a middle aged person ( meaning that I suspect age has something to do with this...) if we put of a WSW after about March 10 .... 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Angus said:

Made reference here in past that until recently work got me all over MI - UP and LP - throughout  the year. Traveling by car, I can attest it is an interesting snow climate but one that the locals say is changing rapidly - much more variable according to locals. With that said, been in Gaylord in big snow years and the snow they get there is impressive. Stopped at a Bigby coffee shop in Gaylord early one morning driving from Traverse City in mid-January and there was a group of mother's in there complaining that they had  school had been essentially cancelled since Christmas break due to non-stop snow. I was on my up to the Sault which didn't have any real impressive depths, if I recall but returned to Gaylord that evening and found the settled snow depths to in 5' range. It was only January but the snow was already reaching up to the roof lines.  There is a town, west of Gaylord, called Mancelona that has a permanent snow stake along the train tracks downtown  that stands about 10' tall.

 I usually take a few trips north in the Winter.  I do know in recent years there have been a few thaws that stretched unusually far north, so not sure if that's what the locals are referring to. Admittedly I'm not as great a historian on snow trends for the entire state as I am for the Southeastern part of the state.  Snowfall in the Lake belts are definitely increasing. Both snowfall and precipitation have shown somewhat of an increasing trend in Detroit/Flint.  More Lake effect is wafting across to the East Side of the state, not to mention some storms seemed to have higher moisture contents. Winter temperatures have only warmed slightly so not sure what if that has to do with anything.  I have heard that some of the places outside the lake belts in northern Michigan that I spoke of in my earlier post seemed to be getting less snow than average lately, so not really sure why that is.  People in the Northern part of MI definitely base the Winter on cold, snowdepth, and ice thickness.  And then of course there's the caveat that pretty much any place that sees snow with any regularity has to deal with, the old folks claiming it snowed more in their day. That theme song has gone on for hundreds of years lol

[CoastalWx]

I want to talk snow and preferably storms that screwed Kevin. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 hours ago, tamarack said:

This illustrates the differing expectations in different parts of New England.  At my place or at most other NNE places, we do expect continuous cover, and that deep enough to at least cover the grass.  Bare ground between Christmas and St. Patrick's Day is anathema. - in 22 seasons here we've had that in only 3 Januarys (2000, 2007, 2012, a total of 10 days) and so far the smallest pack in February has been 5" in 2006.  16 of 22 years March had 31 days of cover and a 17th had 30.  We expect what we most often get.

If I lived further north, it would be more of a factor. But being where I am, I just want opportunities every winter month and if the pack is wiped out in between...it’s somewhat the norm, so it’s not a big knock.

[weathafella]

Big snow falling and accumulating frequently makes the winter for me.  Minimal ice.  Ice and age in the 70s or higher is a bad combination.

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If I lived further north, it would be more of a factor. But being where I am, I just want opportunities every winter month and if the pack is wiped out in between...it’s somewhat the norm, so it’s not a big knock.

Yep. 

[Damage In Tolland]

For interior elevated SNE there should be almost continued snowpack. Well let me rephrase that. There used to be that. But in this new climate it is becoming impossible to accomplish. As the mid Atlantic climate has made it to the pike region now. There also should be plenty of ice and ice storms 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For interior elevated SNE there should be almost continued snowpack. Well let me rephrase that. There used to be that. But in this new climate it is becoming impossible to accomplish. As the mid Atlantic climate has made it to the pike region now. There also should be plenty of ice and ice storms 

[The 4 Seasons]

20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Please be snowy. That is all. 

If this winter is shit like the last two were, i might do something drastic. Don't test me mother nature

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If this winter is shit like the last two were, i might do something drastic. Don't test me mother nature

Move to NNE?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Move to NNE?

Rains to Maines though. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Rains to Maines though. 

Move to Lab city?