Winter 2020-2021

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just explained how it can -

IF 2007 never flipped,..it would have been worse - ...if one is into the whole snow and ice and cold drama seeking, that is. 

 

Most abrupt and amazing flip I can recall.  Nov and Dec each my mildest here, though 2015 eclipsed Dec.  Then Jan was +11 thru the 13th and season total snowfall thru that date was 11".  The rest of Jan and all of Feb was -7 with 3 advisory events plus V-Day.  1st 9 days of March were 12° BN with -2 aft max on the 6th and daily mean 32° BN on the 8th (my greatest departure here) plus a warning-criteria snowfall.  Had 37" in April to cap the comeback - 11" thru Jan 13 and 84" afterwards.  Farmington's snowiest April in its 128-yr POR, 50% more than #2.

[powderfreak]

On 8/13/2020 at 5:13 PM, tamarack said:

Most abrupt and amazing flip I can recall.  Nov and Dec each my mildest here, though 2015 eclipsed Dec.  Then Jan was +11 thru the 13th and season total snowfall thru that date was 11".  The rest of Jan and all of Feb was -7 with 3 advisory events plus V-Day.  1st 9 days of March were 12° BN with -2 aft max on the 6th and daily mean 32° BN on the 8th (my greatest departure here) plus a warning-criteria snowfall.  Had 37" in April to cap the comeback - 11" thru Jan 13 and 84" afterwards.  Farmington's snowiest April in its 128-yr POR, 50% more than #2.

One of the greatest flips I’ve ever witnessed too.  It was looking real bleak and then one day it snowed in January...then it snowed a bit more...then we put together a couple decent weeks, before Valentines Day storm hit (still my personal number 1 favorite storm).  After that it was just deep winter, biggie on St Patrick’s Day too followed by crazy upslope.  April snowed a lot up high, some storm in there gave two feet of paste followed by rain lol.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

One of the greatest flips I’ve ever witnessed too.  It was looking real bleak and then one day it snowed in January...then it snowed a bit more...then we put together a couple decent weeks, before Valentines Day storm hit (still my personal number 1 favorite storm).  After that it was just deep winter, biggie on St Patrick’s Day too followed by crazy upslope.  April snowed a lot up high, some storm in there gave two feet of paste followed by rain lol.

I was up at Jay peak in early February that year...it was around a week to 10 days before the vday storm.....and there was light snow cover all over New England. I left ORH with maybe 3” on the ground and by the time I got to N VT outside of Jay it was maybe 6”....I drove up into the mountain and went into a cloud of currier and Ives by the time I got to the lodge, there was maybe 2 feet OTG. It was evening...I woke up the next morning to an absolute upslope blizzard. Prob 8-10” new...I think they got 30 inches out of it. 

The thing that stuck with me was how fooking cold it was during the snow. It was like a 5F upslope blizzard. Not one of those 20F jobs. That month was damned cold and that frigid upslope event is always the memory I have of it. It was almost uncomfortable to ski in it with the wind and those temps...even for a diehard like me who doesn’t mind the cold. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was up at Jay peak in early February that year...it was around a week to 10 days before the vday storm.....and there was light snow cover all over New England. I left ORH with maybe 3” on the ground and by the time I got to N VT outside of Jay it was maybe 6”....I drove up into the mountain and went into a cloud of currier and Ives by the time I got to the lodge, there was maybe 2 feet OTG. It was evening...I woke up the next morning to an absolute upslope blizzard. Prob 8-10” new...I think they got 30 inches out of it. 

The thing that stuck with me was how fooking cold it was during the snow. It was like a 5F upslope blizzard. Not one of those 20F jobs. That month was damned cold and that frigid upslope event is always the memory I have of it. It was almost uncomfortable to ski in it with the wind and those temps...even for a diehard like me who doesn’t mind the cold. 

Yes!  It got really cold and fast once that pattern changed.  February was frigid.  I still remember that Valentines Day storm thread, we actually had several posters in BTV at the time.  It started snowing at 0F and we got like the first foot of snow at temps of like 5F.  It was so, so cold.  Coldest major snow of my life and the BTV obs show it.  I think it eventually rose into the mid-teens at some point (but that's still a cold air mass for 2+ of QPF)... but that's just another reason why that storm was so great. 

I do remember late January and the first half of February in 2007 didn't have much synoptically until Valentines Day... but we did have a big increase in upslope snows with the arctic air masses starting to come in.  I remember the snowpack didn't grow all that fast (outside the 2,000+ foot elevations) despite the snowfalls because of how cold/fluffy it was, but it was nice to see regular snow at that point and it was still serviceable for skiing.  After Valentines Day the snowpack was set for the rest of the season.

What you describe sounds like the classic Northern Greens though... like when I've got 4-6" on the ground at my house with 1.5sm -SN at MVL and then you drive a few miles up the road and there's a couple feet on the ground at 1,500ft+ with SN+ wind-whipped blizzard style.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yes!  It got really cold and fast once that pattern changed.  February was frigid.  I still remember that Valentines Day storm thread, we actually had several posters in BTV at the time.  It started snowing at 0F and we got like the first foot of snow at temps of like 5F.  It was so, so cold.  Coldest major snow of my life and the BTV obs show it.  I think it eventually rose into the mid-teens at some point (but that's still a cold air mass for 2+ of QPF)... but that's just another reason why that storm was so great. 

I do remember late January and the first half of February in 2007 didn't have much synoptically until Valentines Day... but we did have a big increase in upslope snows with the arctic air masses starting to come in.  I remember the snowpack didn't grow all that fast (outside the 2,000+ foot elevations) despite the snowfalls because of how cold/fluffy it was, but it was nice to see regular snow at that point and it was still serviceable for skiing.  After Valentines Day the snowpack was set for the rest of the season.

What you describe sounds like the classic Northern Greens though... like when I've got 4-6" on the ground at my house with 1.5sm -SN at MVL and then you drive a few miles up the road and there's a couple feet on the ground at 1,500ft+ with SN+ wind-whipped blizzard style.  

 

Yeah it was cool going from clear skies with the moon visible about 10-20 miles out and then it got cloudy and a few flurries by the time I was at downtown Troy. Still, there wasn’t that much snow OTG...but once I start climbing the final slope toward the base, it just increased exponentially and it’s like I went into a snow globe with 2 feet OTG. It wasn’t heavy when I got there but a consistent 1 mile vis light snow with good dendrites stacking up....but at some point overnight it turned into a wind whipped upslope blizzard and woke up to an absolute white out. 

When I left the upslope storm wasn’t even done yet, but I was out of it just as quickly going home. Troy had more snow but it seemed like they “only” picked up about 5-6” additional from when I passed through there on the way up. Meanwhile up at the mountain they were nuking 30+. 

But man, that cold is what I’ll remember about that trip. That whole month seemed like it probably had trouble getting above 10F up there. Prob a good number of sub-zero days on the summits I imagine. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That fourth blizzard in Feb 2015 tied my personal temperature depth/snow fall tandem with a 1981 Lake blitz over western Michigan. 
 

both events hovered -1 F during 1/4 mi vis shattered talcum powder cob-webbing off roof eaves ...squeaking under foot falls like chalkboard cringe.  It was nearing the 20th of Feb by that one and figured the winter must’ve at last bonked it’s nadir but five days later another blizzard warning verified in a roundly recovered +5F event that featured soothing twice as much wind.
 

Or it might have been #3 and #4 ... but I remember those two storms as back to back particularly hideously cold… Like hell’s heart sociopathic cold and the second of which was the bomb; the deep one that was like a 972 mb low going over Nantucket with wind gusting to 55 miles an hour in the Worcester Hills, in an airmass so ludicrous you’d think all molecular motion should completely come to a screeching halt but the wind snapped off the crown of a Douglas fur down my street.  It laid over the powerlines pulled taut during that cryo- frappe and thank God we never lost power!

Oh yeah ... that was like the 2nd warmest Global February in history. 

[CoastalWx]

Ugh 06-07. Only interesting thing that winter, were the flowers coming up in Jan.

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yes!  It got really cold and fast once that pattern changed.  February was frigid.  I still remember that Valentines Day storm thread, we actually had several posters in BTV at the time.  It started snowing at 0F and we got like the first foot of snow at temps of like 5F.  It was so, so cold.  Coldest major snow of my life and the BTV obs show it.  I think it eventually rose into the mid-teens at some point (but that's still a cold air mass for 2+ of QPF)... but that's just another reason why that storm was so great. 

Most of that snow came with temps about 10, with some wind, though we didn't get the good dendrites of farther west - 15.5" from 1.80" LE.  Ratio of 8.6-to-1 from tiny flakes.  Farmington co-op reported 23.0" but I'd been in town at the height of the storm and later, and their snowfall looked no different than mine. 
(Not as egregious as 12/6-7/2003 - measured 24" at my place, 40" reported at the co-op.  We got to church - 1.5 miles SE from the co-op and 100' higher - during the final flakes and the parking lot had about 2 feet.  I'd believe 30, maybe.  I had 6" by 9 PM with SN+ and 18" after.  Co-op had 14" by midnight - 8" in 3 hr was reasonable - but 26" after midnight was not.  With a midnight measure my snow probably would've been 12" in each day.  Lots of drifting in that one. )

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/10/2020 at 11:20 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro seasonal is better than the others but in an absolute sense, it is still pretty inaccurate. It absolutely shit the bed last year even on the October and November versions IIRC.

I also like to look at the H5 anomalies and not the 2m temp anomalies...they often don't seem in sync and the H5 anomaly forecast is going to be easier for the models to hit. IIRC, back in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, it was showing these monster ridges over AK/EPO region (that largely verified) but they had warm anomalies in southern Canada and into most of the CONUS which is totally at odds with that pattern. So the H5anomaly was a lot more accurate for forecasting the sensible wx than the 2m temp anomaly.

That makes sense. Any idea what the h5 looks like on the euro? just my usual August curiosity lol. I put little faith in models either way.

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/11/2020 at 11:10 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Cosgrove has essentially punted winter.  

kinda ridiculous for any met to exhibit confidence in any scenario one way or the other.

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/13/2020 at 10:42 AM, PhineasC said:

Winter will only exist north of a line from Siam, OH, to Woodcock, PA, to Constable, NY.

Who used that unusual line? I'd be safe, but again, some bold predictions for so far out.

[PhineasC]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Who used that unusual line? I'd be safe, but again, some bold predictions for so far out.

That's an old Larry Cosgrove joke. His forecasts always use these obscure tiny towns and place names as boundaries for different forecasts. Instead of just saying "northern Ohio and PA" Larry will list the three most obscure towns in the region and then say "north of a line between them." It's one of the silly things that blowhard does. My post was the equivalent of Cosgrove saying it will only be winter in Canada.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ugh 06-07. Only interesting thing that winter, were the flowers coming up in Jan.

This didn't do it for ya? 

[J.Spin]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This didn't do it for ya? 

That map looks pretty good for what I hear the resorts like – solid accumulations for the mountains, with potentially minimized travel disruptions in the big cities to allow people to travel to the snow.

I think that storm produced great turns in some cases, but it also brought a lot of wind in spots that reduced the quality of the powder.

[ScituateWX]

FWIW noticed Weatherbell punted winter.  Has above average temps and below normal snow.  They have had a pretty poor performance record for the past few seasons so it is what it is.  Who knows how it will play out 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, ScituateWX said:

FWIW noticed Weatherbell punted winter.  Has above average temps and below normal snow.  They have had a pretty poor performance record for the past few seasons so it is what it is.  Who knows how it will play out 

Seems like a lot of early pessimism for winter prospects going around this summer. 

That usually makes me feel better about things. 

[dryslot]

I would probably be a little more on the edge for winter if i lived south of 40N.

[weathafella]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like a lot of early pessimism for winter prospects going around this summer. 

That usually makes me feel better about things. 

Think of all the consensus big winter forecasts that fall flat.   Maybe we 2010-11...expected to be a dud but was far from it!

[michsnowfreak]

I saw JB's temp map (he must be going for reverse psychology)...anyone have weatherbells precip map for the winter?

 

And I notice cosgrove is obsessed with pointing out its NOT a La Nina....i assumed the expectation was Nina was to develop in Fall?

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I saw JB's temp map (he must be going for reverse psychology)...anyone have weatherbells precip map for the winter?

 

And I notice cosgrove is obsessed with pointing out its NOT a La Nina....i assumed the expectation was Nina was to develop in Fall?

They don’t have a precip map as far as I can see, just a percentage of normal snowfall map. Basically the 100% of normal line is along Lake Michigan, so anywhere east of that has below normal snowfall. They have a pocket of less than 75% of normal snowfall around the mid Atlantic region. In other words, our area all the way east into New England is between 75 and 100 percent of normal snowfall. 

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I saw JB's temp map (he must be going for reverse psychology)...anyone have weatherbells precip map for the winter?

 

And I notice cosgrove is obsessed with pointing out its NOT a La Nina....i assumed the expectation was Nina was to develop in Fall?

Yeah right now I’d lean weak La Niña....it’s possible though we stay cold-neutral. 

[CoastalWx]

More winter voodoo-casts. I dunno...I'm feeling a meh one...but only because I'm on the regression train. Doesn't have to be a dud, maybe near normal. 

[ScituateWX]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More winter voodoo-casts. I dunno...I'm feeling a meh one...but only because I'm on the regression train. Doesn't have to be a dud, maybe near normal. 

Exactly after the last few a "normal" winter would be welcome with open arms.  Either way just another stab in the dark.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

Exactly after the last few a "normal" winter would be welcome with open arms.  Either way just another stab in the dark.

18-19 was close to normal, I think a hair above with that big early March dump...but yeah it didn't feel like it. Lots of torchy periods. Last year was a true ratter. Early December had some fun, but outside of that...it was pure vomit.  Last year as far as snow goes, was the first solid BN season since 11-12 here. That is quite a stretch. 

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18-19 was close to normal, I think a hair above with that big early March dump...but yeah it didn't feel like it. Lots of torchy periods. Last year was a true ratter. Early December had some fun, but outside of that...it was pure vomit.  Last year as far as snow goes, was the first solid BN season since 11-12 here. That is quite a stretch. 

'18-'19 was below normal over interior SNE....ORH only finished with 51.4".

Time to get back on the horse. Last time ORH finished with 3 consecutive below normal seasons was 1997-1998 through 1999-2000.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

'18-'19 was below normal over interior SNE....ORH only finished with 51.4".

Time to get back on the horse. Last time ORH finished with 3 consecutive below normal seasons was 1997-1998 through 1999-2000.

Yeah I meant just for this local area. I know it was pretty bad up by ORH into srn NH. I hope for my mental health sake, that it's a decent winter. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I meant just for this local area. I know it was pretty bad up by ORH into srn NH. I hope for my mental health sake, that it's a decent winter. 

At least weak La Nina is pretty good usually....and hopefully that means we don't have to wait long either. Usually pretty active Decembers.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least weak La Nina is pretty good usually....and hopefully that means we don't have to wait long either. Usually pretty active Decembers.

That will be welcomed. Even if winter ended early like some typical Ninas...I'll take a snowy December and January.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That will be welcomed. Even if winter ended early like some typical Ninas...I'll take a snowy December and January.

Yeah, in our last weak Nina, we had that great stretch for most of December and into early January....too bad it didn't go a little longer before the torch after 1/10. At least it had the epic rebound in March though....not all Ninas come back like that in March. 2001 did too. Both had epic NAO blocks.

 

Jan '09 was kind of a sneaky great month too in a Nina....zero torches the whole month with deep snow pack and a lot of events. I think ORH never broke 40F that month. Only a handful of months off the top of my head can say that (Jan '03, Feb '15, Jan '77, Feb '78 maybe)

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, in our last weak Nina, we had that great stretch for most of December and into early January....too bad it didn't go a little longer before the torch after 1/10. At least it had the epic rebound in March though....not all Ninas come back like that in March. 2001 did too. Both had epic NAO blocks.

 

Jan '09 was kind of a sneaky great month too in a Nina....zero torches the whole month with deep snow pack and a lot of events. I think ORH never broke 40F that month. Only a handful of months off the top of my head can say that (Jan '03, Feb '15, Jan '77, Feb '78 maybe)

08-09 is one of my favorite seasons. It's not like we had 100+", but for this area I think we ended up near 75" give or take, with a most of that in Dec and Jan. That was a fun season. I still remember the RUC nailing that 2 part Jan event.