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Winter 2020-2021


ORH_wxman
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be? I'm half kidding about what I said earlier, but probably another year of a black hole up by the poles. No need to worry in Randolph, NH coming from the Mid Atlantic..lol. 

The ice bath sitting there in the N ATL doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence for the NAO. Hopefully it doesn’t end up mattering. GOA has been cooling a lot too recently though still above average while the warm pool south of Aleutians has been strengthening....wonder if the PDO will try and go negative this winter. 

 

44797A76-226C-45A7-BB16-F0378869D9A2.png

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ice bath sitting there in the N ATL doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence for the NAO. Hopefully it doesn’t end up mattering. GOA has been cooling a lot too recently though still above average while the warm pool south of Aleutians has been strengthening....wonder if the PDO will try and go negative this winter. 

 

44797A76-226C-45A7-BB16-F0378869D9A2.png

Too early...I feel like recent summers have looked ideal in the north atlantic, only to end up having the NAO verify obnoxiously positive come winter.

I do not that there is a propensity for a deeply negative NAO winter shortly following solar minimums...even raindance will tell you that.

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Last year looked good going in...and ended up bring a total Ratter!  
 

I’ll gladly take a look that doesn’t look all that conducive going in, and then have it end up delivering around average snow in SNE. There’s nothing wrong with that at all.  
 

Like Ginxy said...nobody knows.  

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Last year looked good going in...and ended up bring a total Ratter!  
 

I’ll gladly take a look that doesn’t look all that conducive going in, and then have it end up delivering around average snow in SNE. There’s nothing wrong with that at all.  
 

Like Ginxy said...nobody knows.  

I don’t think anything looks particularly bad. The N ATL cold pool is kind of annoying but it doesn’t drive the pattern...it can just act to reinforce a +NAO if it stays that way. 

Weak Nina is actually a pretty decent enso state. 

Most of the other stuff is pretty stochastic and not easy to forecast. 

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On 8/8/2020 at 12:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think anything looks particularly bad. The N ATL cold pool is kind of annoying but it doesn’t drive the pattern...it can just act to reinforce a +NAO if it stays that way. 

Weak Nina is actually a pretty decent enso state. 

Most of the other stuff is pretty stochastic and not easy to forecast. 

Weak la nina is the second most favorable ENSO state.

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On 8/8/2020 at 12:29 PM, WinterWolf said:

Last year looked good going in...and ended up bring a total Ratter!  
 

I’ll gladly take a look that doesn’t look all that conducive going in, and then have it end up delivering around average snow in SNE. There’s nothing wrong with that at all.  
 

Like Ginxy said...nobody knows.  

All you can do is play the odds....two favorable (weak) ENSO events in a row sucked, so I wouldn't bet on a third.

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45 minutes ago, yoda said:

Euro SEAS-5 h5 height anamoly forecast for January was vomit-worthy.  It was the ensemble mean for January as well.  You guys might be able to sneak something... but down south... ugly 

ETA: From August 1st though

97% chance your winter in DC will be terrible. Why even bother tracking it?

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17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All you can do is play the odds....two favorable (weak) ENSO events in a row sucked, so I wouldn't bet on a third.

Location dependent, of course.  First one here was pretty good despite the ratty December - no blockbusters but long snowpack that reached 40" in March.  Last winter didn't rate ratter status here, more like meh - not much happened until after the equinox.

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what are the euro monthlies like accuracy wise? low accuracy like the rest? larry cosgrove was unhappy at how warm they looked for winter. it was an odd look because the map was full of warm anomaloes yet they weren't extreme anywhere when you realized the legend was in increments of 0.2°. Even converting to F it was a few degrees or less warm departure for most everyone.

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52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

what are the euro monthlies like accuracy wise? low accuracy like the rest? larry cosgrove was unhappy at how warm they looked for winter. it was an odd look because the map was full of warm anomaloes yet they weren't extreme anywhere when you realized the legend was in increments of 0.2°. Even converting to F it was a few degrees or less warm departure for most everyone.

Euro seasonal is better than the others but in an absolute sense, it is still pretty inaccurate. It absolutely shit the bed last year even on the October and November versions IIRC.

I also like to look at the H5 anomalies and not the 2m temp anomalies...they often don't seem in sync and the H5 anomaly forecast is going to be easier for the models to hit. IIRC, back in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, it was showing these monster ridges over AK/EPO region (that largely verified) but they had warm anomalies in southern Canada and into most of the CONUS which is totally at odds with that pattern. So the H5anomaly was a lot more accurate for forecasting the sensible wx than the 2m temp anomaly.

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On 8/10/2020 at 10:21 AM, michsnowfreak said:

what are the euro monthlies like accuracy wise? low accuracy like the rest? larry cosgrove was unhappy at how warm they looked for winter. it was an odd look because the map was full of warm anomaloes yet they weren't extreme anywhere when you realized the legend was in increments of 0.2°. Even converting to F it was a few degrees or less warm departure for most everyone.

Cosgrove has essentially punted winter.  

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3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Winter will only exist north of a line from Siam, OH, to Woodcock, PA, to Constable, NY.

Funny thing is that it could be fairly snowy for you. Oranges at 500mb with your location aren't a bad thing. Even here, it was Bengal Tigers and Parakeets at 500mb in December 2007 and we got lit. It would help to have a big confluence area well to our NE...almost like a massive +NAO on roids with the dateline ridging. 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Funny thing is that it could be fairly snowy for you. Oranges at 500mb with your location aren't a bad thing. Even here, it was Bengal Tigers and Parakeets at 500mb in December 2007 and we got lit. It would help to have a big confluence area well to our NE...almost like a massive +NAO on roids with the dateline ridging. 

2008 was kind of similar too

 

Dec2007_H5.png

Dec2008_H5.png

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Were they Kocin check-list-able events, though - or did we just get walloped. 

I remember 2007 I think it was...we had a 40" Dec out of frontenders ending as drizzle - pretty epic 0 Kocin month.  Just askin' not d'k headin'

I actually remember one of those the high was so immovable the low just went up to Ontario, stopped...and squeezed as a blown open shredded mess underneath so we ended it as zr/ip actually... at like 21 F

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Were they Kocin check-list-able events, though - or did we just get walloped. 

I remember 2007 I think it was...we had a 40" Dec out of frontenders ending as drizzle - pretty epic 0 Kocin month.  Just askin' not ********in'

It was the latter....I don't think we had any events that exceeded 8-10" in that month (maybe some rogue 12 inchers...esp CNE)...but we got hit by like 4 overrunning events plus a norlun that dumped 5-10" over a largish portion of E MA and SE NH/ME.

 

The Kocin pattern comment was merely to observe that we sometimes obsess over the perfect setup only to be blindsided by a 40 inch month with a southeast ridge.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was the latter....I don't think we had any events that exceeded 8-10" in that month (maybe some rogue 12 inchers...esp CNE)...but we got hit by like 4 overrunning events plus a norlun that dumped 5-10" over a largish portion of E MA and SE NH/ME.

 

The Kocin pattern comment was merely to observe that we sometimes obsess over the perfect setup only to be blindsided by a 40 inch month with a southeast ridge.

word!  understood..

yeah i was curious cuz my running hypothesis is that in a gradient rich HC expansion scenario that isn't temporary and is more likely representative of a global projection from you-know-what ...it gets hard to stage the general machinery in space and time for the KU process...

shredded IB events that cash in on higher pwats transporting into well timed confluence +PP anomalies at the surface , do -

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

The good news for winter weens is that it can't get much worse, especially SNE

It can't ? 

How about if 2007 never flipped in Feb... we'd had the first ever 0 - winter

- think it was then, 2006-2007  ... unrelenting warmth in the 50s/60s through January ...couple days threatened 70 with no hope in sight in model, ensemble means ...nor the teleconnectors that are derived from those means.  In fact, that the year of the titan +AO pillars that soared to some +6 SD and they had to move the scale up to capture the acmes of those curves.  

Big storm on Valentines day tho -

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Referring to last winter. It legit cannot get much worse for SNE, even factoring in the rogue interior snow in Dec.

I just explained how it can -

IF 2007 never flipped,..it would have been worse - ...if one is into the whole snow and ice and cold drama seeking, that is. 

 

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