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Winter 2020-2021


ORH_wxman
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Most guidance still going for a weak La Nina....I was speculating on moderate about a month ago, but it seems we lost the easterlies and WWBs put a halt on it. But very recently, the easterlies have picked back up, so we'll see if there another late push to get things going.

Weak La Nina can be very good though....some of our big ones in the past 30 years in weak La Nina have been 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and 2017-2018

 

 

ECMWFensoForecast_july2020.png

JulyENSOforecast.png

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Weak ENSO has generally been good here, with some obvious exceptions.

There’s been some subpar ones here but definitely minority. The monster ratter was 1954-55...least snowiest winter on record at ORH. 2005-06 and 1974-75 were OK but not great...1964-65 maybe slightly better.

But a lot of goodies are on the list:

2017-18

2016-17

2008-09

2000-01

1995-96

1983-84

1971-72

 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All guesses. Some more scientific than others. Not diminishing the work some do. People like Ray abandon their families for a month to print their forecast. I respect the process. 

The long ranger needs to continue to ride, Just to many variables to accurately forecast long term.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is one variable that is easy to forecast though...fading Judah’s NAO calls. If you bet the house on it every winter for the last 10 years, you’d have 9 houses.

Sure, There is a pretty good chance in the Northeast its going to snow from Nov-Mar most years, And its going to be cold from Dec-Mar with a few thaws in between too, See, Its pretty easy actually.

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16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s been some subpar ones here but definitely minority. The monster ratter was 1954-55...least snowiest winter on record at ORH. 2005-06 and 1974-75 were OK but not great...1964-65 maybe slightly better.

But a lot of goodies are on the list:

2017-18

2016-17

2008-09

2000-01

1995-96

1983-84

1971-72

 

I wouldn't mind seeing them all ranked ... like going back 300 years, re-analyzed when/where in history it is necessary to do so in order to complete that list. 

I notice right off the bat just eye-ballin' those, four out of seven "ratter years" are just since 2000.

Anyone with a modicum of both an inquisitive nature ... sharing headspace between questions and a tendencies to maintain a general sensitivity as to the "nature" of the present geological era of the Global environment ( and it is proposedly denoted the "Anthropocene" by the way), might be inclined to wonder if that 'recency' is really having as much to do with the ENSO, at all...

Perhaps more to do with the taboo elephant in the room narrative - We all know what that is...  Yup, global warming may be anachronistically skewing the assumed cause-and-effects.

I mean, if the ENSO becomes a lesser a physical drive in a warmly encased system - that's just physics...  

I'm tipping my hypothesis hat.  I don't think the ENSO events are as instructive in the governance of the total Global circulation paradigms ...as an "increasingly failed realization" because the total integral of the ocean-atmospheric couple system is warming ...

Rudimentarily: gradient from point A to point B dictates how everything in reality exists ... in reality, including reality itself.   From electrodynamic quantum scales all the way to the faults in our gods .... if A doesn't move toward B, there is not A or B .... 

If the atmosphere is warm over a warm ocean, that atmosphere does not represent a response to the warm ocean; if the atmosphere is cold, it does more so...  Really simple actually... 

Anyway, there was a super Nino some 5 clicks back that did not register the typology of Global impact zones nearly as much ... and ...a lot of seasonal forecasts are failing more so ( that I appears to me...). I suggest reliance and assumption need to change; because in ENSO reliances that I feel folks are getting bamboozled by because the machinery of the atmosphere isn't being as readily levered by the these ENSO variances... 

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wouldn't mind seeing them all ranked ... like going back 300 years, re-analyzed when/where in history it is necessary to do so in order to complete that list. 

I notice right off the bat just eye-ballin' those, four out of seven "ratter years" are just since 2000.

Anyone with a modicum of both an inquisitive nature ... sharing headspace between questions and a tendencies to maintain a general sensitivity as to the "nature" of the present geological era of the Global environment ( and it is proposedly denoted the "Anthropocene" by the way), might be inclined to wonder if that 'recency' is really having as much to do with the ENSO, at all...

Perhaps more to do with the taboo elephant in the room narrative - We all know what that is...  Yup, global warming may be anachronistically skewing the assumed cause-and-effects.

I mean, if the ENSO becomes a lesser a physical drive in a warmly encased system - that's just physics...  

I'm tipping my hypothesis hat.  I don't think the ENSO events are as instructive in the governance of the total Global circulation paradigms ...as an "increasingly failed realization" because the total integral of the ocean-atmospheric couple system is warming ...

Rudimentarily: gradient from point A to point B dictates how everything in reality exists ... in reality, including reality itself.   From electrodynamic quantum scales all the way to the faults in our gods .... if A doesn't move toward B, there is not A or B .... 

If the atmosphere is warm over a warm ocean, that atmosphere does not represent a response to the warm ocean; if the atmosphere is cold, it does more so...  Really simple actually... 

Anyway, there was a super Nino some 5 clicks back that did not register the typology of Global impact zones nearly as much ... and ...a lot of seasonal forecasts are failing more so ( that I appears to me...). I suggest reliance and assumption need to change; because in ENSO reliances that I feel folks are getting bamboozled by because the machinery of the atmosphere isn't being as readily levered by the these ENSO variances... 

That list I gave in vertical fashion was the good weak Ninas....not the ratters. Only ratter weak Niña is probably 1954-55...you could almost classify 2011-12 as one, but that was really a moderate Niña and it peaked pretty early. 

Of course everything else you said could be true as well. Maybe the warmer PAC outside of enso regions was reducing the effect. We did have a weak El Niño basically act like a La Niña a couple winters ago...but that has also been true in the past on a few events. Maybe it’s becoming more common now. We’ll need a higher sample to be sure. 

You've talked about the expanded Hadley cell...is it the dominant driver? Not sure. It definitely is a force that increases the gradient. But......Arctic warming faster than the rest of the globe reduces the gradient...that reduced gradient will want to offset an increased gradient from Hadley expansion. By how much? I don’t know. 

Will the PAC go back into a relative cold cycle again like we saw in the 2007-2013 years? That’s another question.

I don’t think the N ATL going frigid on us since 2013 has done us any favors in terms of NAO blocking. You’d figure at some point the blocking will return...but outside of fleeting moments (March 2018...late Nov/early Dec 2019), we haven’t seen it during the winter months...not even during the “Labrador visits Boston” winter of 2015. 

I’m mostly thinking out loud in this post...we all know how difficult it is to predict winter here because New England has such a weird geography and no real Golden Nugget teleconnector. EPO would probably be our closest one to being that but even here we’re far enough east to not be in the direct line of fire like, say, the Great Lakes and upper plains are. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That list I gave in vertical fashion was the good weak Ninas....not the ratters. Only ratter weak Niña is probably 1954-55...you could almost classify 2011-12 as one, but that was really a moderate Niña and it peaked pretty early. 

Of course everything else you said could be true as well. "   - it may not matter?  The case could be argued in both directions, yeah. I mean, we could just as well make the case for increased(ing) moisture content in a warming world, skewing the PWATs and the physically related snow totals would rise ( where cold enough) and be part of that...  Such that it gives the illusion of the ENSO modest event being causal, when it would in fact really just a wetter atmosphere...etc etc... 

"...Maybe the warmer PAC outside of enso regions was reducing the effect. We did have a weak El Niño basically act like a La Niña a couple winters ago...but that has also been true in the past on a few events. Maybe it’s becoming more common now. We’ll need a higher sample to be sure. .."  I actually believe fully this is true!  That the observed paragons are actually mimicking one another because for relatively weaker ENSO signals, they are actually non-existent forcers and the what is really resulting is noise.  And I very much agree we need a larger sample set - the problem is ...once we have one, that's probably after the thresholds have been crossed and the apocalypse spectrum of events have proven too late...  Sorry to go that far but ...it's kind of logical projection to wonder -

"...You've talked about the expanded Hadley cell...is it the dominant driver? Not sure. It definitely is a force that increases the gradient. But......Arctic warming faster than the rest of the globe reduces the gradient...that reduced gradient will want to offset an increased gradient from Hadley expansion. By how much? I don’t know." 

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/   ...folks should refer to Ch 5.  The stuff about the expansion is in there...and I also think it is not only true, but accelerating.

I've thought about this, how it almost seems there are contradictory result sets ..setting stage for argument.   The system has immensely undocumented moving parts - hahaha, to put if droll.  But, the "gradient" I was discussing pertained to changes along subtropical interface latitudes with the westerlies.  This was/is the northern best perceived termination where the HC fades into the mid latitudes/westerlies.  The gradient associated with the westerlies in the winter ...causing all these record breaking, ground based west-to-east commercial airline velocities is because of a different response... Firstly, it is taking place well displaced outside the termination zones where the ENSO extends beyond the equator (N or S)... Yes the arctic is warming faster, but...it's still providing deep/steep hydrostatic well compared to the encroaching warm heights as the HC grows.  We probably slow the the mid latitude, wintertime maelstrom down at some point in the future as said cold well continues to elevate ... but I think we suffer some decades of unusually fast atmospheres in the winter, depending on how long it takes. 

I’m mostly thinking out loud in this post... We need more this ... I feel/feer/see the world as increasingly dumbing down and becoming blithe to environmental change, because neolism ... and people becoming unprinciply-centered in 'what can the world do for my orgasm of life, now'  .... This result of entitled/take-for-granted/presumption of living that comes from a convenience addled civility gives us startlingly exulted intellectualism such as Twitting.... yay! and that doesn't parlay 

 

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I like the warm PAC throwing off analogs Tip. We’ve talked about this now and then. You’ll need more samples like Will said, but I know several energy mets who said they have a hard time using them outside strong ENSO events. It’s almost to even use 30yr normals now since the last 10 years have really been warm. Maybe we cool down at some point.

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the warm PAC throwing off analogs Tip. We’ve talked about this now and then. You’ll need more samples like Will said, but I know several energy mets who said they have a hard time using them outside strong ENSO events. It’s almost to even use 30yr normals now since the last 10 years have really been warm. Maybe we cool down at some point.

It probably will. Or at least the warming there will slow. The N PAC has warmed faster recently than the N Hemisphere as a whole. 

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I've noticed over the years there are always some notable similarities yet at the same time notable differences between winters in the Southern Great Lakes and Southern New England. Not sure where sne falls with this, but I was looking at weak la ninas and it's startling how strong the trend is for snowy December's here during a weak Nina. Especially since the 1970s. 7 of the past 8 have had well above average December snowfall. The lone holdout was average. Could be completely random, as those 8 winters were quite different from one another (some severe, some very frontloaded). But regardless the trend is about as strong as you can get with an analog set.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I've noticed over the years there are always some notable similarities yet at the same time notable differences between winters in the Southern Great Lakes and Southern New England. Not sure where sne falls with this, but I was looking at weak la ninas and it's startling how strong the trend is for snowy December's here during a weak Nina. Especially since the 1970s. 7 of the past 8 have had well above average December snowfall. The lone holdout was average. Could be completely random, as those 8 winters were quite different from one another (some severe, some very frontloaded). But regardless the trend is about as strong as you can get with an analog set.

Yeah weak Ninas are good for snow in December. Ninas in general are good for snowy Decembers but you are right that the weak ones seem to have fewer duds mixed in. Dec 2016 was kind of near average. But Dec 2017, 2008, 2005, 2000, 1995 were all above average for the most part (2000 was kind of meh along the coast but good inland)...Dec ‘71 wasn’t great but Nov ‘71 was lol...and then the rest of winter was big. Dec 83 was similarly good inland but pretty mediocre right on the coast. 

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On 8/4/2020 at 12:30 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Does Tony do some snow work on the side maybe?  Most people who either hate snow or love it predict big winters in my experience.

He’s kind of neutral.   He accepts whatever comes.  Retired colleague of mine.  

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