40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Judas Priest He bases his thoughts for the entire winter on the PV, which is a flawed methodology. PV is strong.....yes. No one expects much blocking this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean winter cancel. He also gets too carried away when guidance wanes on PV intensity because it's not the only factor. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 A new hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 SSW is always the Hail Mary play of the desperate snow weenie. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 47 minutes ago, PhineasC said: SSW is always the Hail Mary play of the desperate snow weenie. Lol just trying to reel in a few snow weenies on the edge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Lol just trying to reel in a few snow weenies on the edge. For the informed S W’s that are well versed on terms, content and concepts you may be successful. For some of us ignorance is still bliss. We should stay happy, at least, until the first sun angle post shows up around December 22nd. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 LC has punted the rest of November, all of December and the beginning of Jan.......... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: LC has punted the rest of November, all of December and the beginning of Jan.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: If you had to bet right now.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Lets go for this, by Christmas. Suburbs buried with 6-foot mushroom caps. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/14/2020 at 6:56 PM, PhineasC said: SSW is always the Hail Mary play of the desperate snow weenie. X 100 Haven’t been in this thread a while . looks Fugly , thankfully seasonal forecasting has big holes . Isotherm forecast looks good for Gradient winters in New England , seems to me many will have their hopes up higher than they should bc they are in northern SNE, when you want to me north of Winny . Ill take a lockdown, 20 K in stimulus payments and a three month rental in Jay or Somewhere elevated N of Jackson with people . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 This may have been mentioned before but didn't the epic late December to early Feb run in 2010-11 not show up on the long range models until Mid December? I know technology in general has advanced in 9 years but I'd like to wait until we get in December before getting to concerned about this winter sucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 27 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: This may have been mentioned before but didn't the epic late December to early Feb run in 2010-11 not show up on the long range models until Mid December? I know technology in general has advanced in 9 years but I'd like to wait until we get in December before getting to concerned about this winter sucking. 2010-2011 was weird in that the pattern actually got pretty damned good in early December, but we got skunked for like 2 weeks straight. Huge -NAO and active PJ, but we still found a way to get a massive cutter in there and then everything else got shredded in poorly-timed meat grinders. We finally got a storm to retrograde underneath the massive block in the Dec 20-21 timeframe that hammered Cape Cod (and parts of Maine?) and gave 2-4" to the rest of us in New England, and then of course the Boxing Day model bust. Then we relaxed the pattern a bit around New Years before going into the epic January 2011 stretch. The model guidance didn't really "see" an epic stretch per say. It showed a persistently favorable pattern though without any warmups. We had the big -NAO until the 1/12/11 storm and then we actually went into a bit of a +PNA pattern for a time before another weak NAO block formed and then was erased in the 1/27/11 storm. We had loaded dice and they kept coming up 7s for us is essentially what happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We also had the Boxing day event surprise, too. I mentioned boxing day in the part you bolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mentioned boxing day in the part you bolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 2010-2011 was weird in that the pattern actually got pretty damned good in early December, but we got skunked for like 2 weeks straight. Huge -NAO and active PJ, but we still found a way to get a massive cutter in there and then everything else got shredded in poorly-timed meat grinders. We finally got a storm to retrograde underneath the massive block in the Dec 20-21 timeframe that hammered Cape Cod (and parts of Maine?) and gave 2-4" to the rest of us in New England, and then of course the Boxing Day model bust. Then we relaxed the pattern a bit around New Years before going into the epic January 2011 stretch. The model guidance didn't really "see" an epic stretch per say. It showed a persistently favorable pattern though without any warmups. We had the big -NAO until the 1/12/11 storm and then we actually went into a bit of a +PNA pattern for a time before another weak NAO block formed and then was erased in the 1/27/11 storm. We had loaded dice and they kept coming up 7s for us is essentially what happened. I don't know if a January will ever top that one for SVT and WMASS. Savoy reported 48 inches from the 1/12/11 storm. I'll have to post the pictures if I can find them. Crazy the amount of huge storms we had in that 18 month stretch. "Snowicane" storm of late Jan 2010 dropped 2-3 feet of cement above 1800K feet in most of the hills around here, Boxing day was a couple feet of wind swept snow in Savoy, 1/12/11 48" at Savoy, OCTObomb was 30" at low elevation berkshire east. We haven't really had a biggie since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 11:01 AM, Great Snow 1717 said: LC has punted the rest of November, all of December and the beginning of Jan.......... We tried to tell him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We tried to tell him. He was always on the mild December train...expects a big pattern flip in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was always on the mild December train...expects a big pattern flip in January. He had the whole country under nuclear winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: To qualify he has to be dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: To qualify he has to be dead. And it looks like mouse, not a rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Anything new on ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 hours ago, mreaves said: And it looks like mouse, not a rat. If it looks like a rat, smells like a rat, and behaves like a rat...it’s a rat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If it looks like a rat, smells like a rat, and behaves like a rat...it’s a rat. How would you know its a rat when you are still 5,000 miles away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How would you know its a rat when you are still 5,000 miles away? When you’re saying we have a 4 week window of real winter then the likelihood of a ratter is very high. Combine that with the awful pattern we are in for the rest of Novie and the fact this will be a front loaded winter...there isn’t much room for a sustained winter, is there? Sure, we will have our chances but ‘close the shades’ seems like the dominate phrase this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When you’re saying we have a 4 week window of real winter then the likelihood of a ratter is very high. Combine that with the awful pattern we are in for the rest of Novie and the fact this will be a front loaded winter...there isn’t much room for a sustained winter, is there? Sure, we will have our chances but ‘close the shades’ seems like the dominate phrase this season. My only point is that its early, so I would wait for it to play out a bit more before bridge jumping. There is no denying that rat potential is above climo this year...I could easily see it playing out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My only point is that its early, so I would wait for it to play out a bit more before bridge jumping. There is no denying that rat potential is above climo this year...I could easily see it playing out like that. I agree. No jumps here though. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I agree. No jumps here though. It is what it is. You still have to have him a dead muthufukka.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Fish goes rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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