40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Nov 1970 was not as warm as that composite nationally, but NE was a toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2/3 of my primary analogs were toasters for NE in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2/3 of my primary analogs were toasters for NE in Nov. Fugly, there's your PiG in December Lukey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Looks like it has some NAO in December, though. We may have our own private winter early on. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: LC Gonna have to deal with a rat - Spinazola We oink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We oink Not surprised at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like it has some NAO in December, though. We may have our own private winter early on. January looks better. I wouldn't be surprised at all if mid Dec to Late January rocks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 That’s a pretty ugly look overall for SNE.. obviously the details will matter, but I’d feel more confident the further north I lived. And I’m talking NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: January looks better. I wouldn't be surprised at all if mid Dec to Late January rocks I think Dec looks better. I could see that. I think second half of Dec into a portion of January is best. January will go to crap eventually, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think Dec looks better. I could see that. I think second half of Dec into a portion of January is best. January will go to crap eventually, though. Your Jan H5 composite would rock a lot more than you indicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your Jan H5 composite would rock a lot more than you indicate That is true. March, as well. I do not always follow the composite 100%. I tried to doctor them more this season because its been worse in the past. I did also say that I can see December bleeding into January for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 I think the holidays should be wintry, but watch the NAO relax on xmas eve lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like it has some NAO in December, though. We may have our own private winter early on. That map indicates some in January too, though not as clear-cut as December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 In any case, the bright red over and to the northeast of Newfy beats the crap out of having the bright red over South Carolina! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Fugly, there's your PiG in December Lukey So... From what ive seen and read, the Euro model showing these warm temps is not a great model when it comes to predicting the temps over the next several months. I'm just throwing this out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 48 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: That map indicates some in January too, though not as clear-cut as December. Residual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So... From what ive seen and read, the Euro model showing these warm temps is not a great model when it comes to predicting the temps over the next several months. I'm just throwing this out there. Ginxy posted the 500mb charts which probably is more skillful. That’s a fairly nasty look. The seasonal models are what they are. They aren’t always the most skillful and we hope they aren’t lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ginxy posted the 500mb charts which probably is more skillful. That’s a fairly nasty look. The seasonal models are what they are. They aren’t always the most skillful and we hope they aren’t lol. Agree. I think it was 2 years ago and it was showing a great pattern went to hell fast. It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 The years in the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs have been changing a lot lately. We're close enough to Dec-Feb now that I think you have to expect some of the commonly repeating years to show up in winter too. For the 6-10: 1958, 1961, 1968, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1994. I like 1988 and 1961 as second tier analogs - 1961/2010/2016 is a good QBO/ENSO blend. For the 8-14: 1958, 1973, 1988, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2001 2005 As much as I like 2007-08, it's a double La Nina. The models don't have that. So once we get past Dec/Jan, 1988-89 may actually be the right idea, if we're going to see a lot of weakening out a La Nina, assuming the cold does dump West like I think it will. 1973 is kind of interesting too, since 1974 was a La Nina but far weaker than 1973. I prefer 1988 over 1973 though, since it followed two El Ninos which is quite rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I actually reall I actually think that looks pretty reasonable. +2-2.5 at this latitude is not winter cancel. I was going to say...+1.5C is "well above normal"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 That Euro december map would be hideous....even with the -NAO...there's no cold air for the NAO to hold in. We might see a marginal event or two on that look. Lets hope it's wrong. We don't want the piggy showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That Euro december map would be hideous....even with the -NAO...there's no cold air for the NAO to hold in. We might see a marginal event or two on that look. Lets hope it's wrong. We don't want the piggy showing up. I don't buy the pig part for December. RNA, yes, but I think the pig gets pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2020 Author Share Posted November 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't buy the pig part for December. RNA, yes, but I think the pig gets pushed back. Yeah we'll see. The weeklies supported a really bad pattern to open December too FWIW. We know how these things can be horrible accuracy sometimes, but it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we'll see. The weeklies supported a really bad pattern to open December too FWIW. We know how these things can be horrible accuracy sometimes, but it's something to watch. I could see early December being $hitty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Yankees29 said: I think we all know what that means. What it means is that some states are not allowed to open the envelopes and start counting until after Election Day is over. What it means is that they’re faced with potentially hundreds of thousands of paper ballots that then have to be verified, hand processed and tallied and reported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Ratter appears more and more likely. I just rewatched The Departed too. Maybe a sign? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Does anybody know when Tom’s Isotherm Winter outlook is coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Ratter appears more and more likely. I just rewatched The Departed too. Maybe a sign? One of my favorite movies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: Does anybody know when Tom’s Isotherm Winter outlook is coming out? This week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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