Snowstorms Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 hours ago, SnowEMass said: 15/16 and 19/20 were horrendous. I know it wasn’t Nina but it was horrible. December 2015 was the warmest on record, locally. 2015-16 was terrible expect for the cold outbreak in mid Feb and April snowstorm in my area. I'll take last winter over 16-17 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 16-17 we had 48" down here, including two double-digit storms. The February event where it went from 63f on the 8th, to a wind driven Tsnow event on the 9th, was tremendous. 12"-18" statewide in CT. So yes, we could do a lot worse than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't disagree with any of that. Were any of the cases at a solar cycle nadir? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree. His winter outlook has changed somewhat from his earlier thoughts during the summer. Another thing about Cosgrove is he will adjust his forecast accordingly. Some will "drive" their cold & snowy winter forecast off a cliff in an attempt to be right. I prefer someone who adjusts the forecast as needed rather than someone who hangs on to his/her forecast in a desperate attempt to be right. I will adjust, but the outlook is graded as is. Anyone can get an A if you are spoon fed the answer sheet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Were any of the cases at a solar cycle nadir? I didn't factor that in. I did last season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: December 2015 was the warmest on record, locally. 2015-16 was terrible expect for the cold outbreak in mid Feb and April snowstorm in my area. I'll take last winter over 16-17 though. Different location, different outcomes. (Duh!) Last year my 2 biggest snows came after the equinox and the bigger one was a modest 10.3". 16-17 brought 4 events with ~2" LE with 3 of them all snow. The late January one was 5" of mix'n'mess, but the other 3 totaled 57.5" with the smallest (Pi Day, 15.5") being only my 4th storm in 22 winters here to meet blizzard criteria for the required 3 hours - had 2 hr extra. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 hours ago, tamarack said: Different location, different outcomes. (Duh!) Last year my 2 biggest snows came after the equinox and the bigger one was a modest 10.3". 16-17 brought 4 events with ~2" LE with 3 of them all snow. The late January one was 5" of mix'n'mess, but the other 3 totaled 57.5" with the smallest (Pi Day, 15.5") being only my 4th storm in 22 winters here to meet blizzard criteria for the required 3 hours - had 2 hr extra. ‘16-17 was a big 375” at the 3000ft High Road snow plot on Mansfield. That was actually the biggest winter I measured, in a decade of almost daily personal measurements up there. It’s certainly underrated for powder days in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 5:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Excerpt from Donny Baseball post in NYC forum. It’s LC vs the world Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. At least Larry’s got Henry Margusity on his side, always a plus..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 5:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Excerpt from Donny Baseball post in NYC forum. It’s LC vs the world Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Does anyone know what the other 4 winters were besides 2016-17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't factor that in. I did last season I've seen research showing that it's the two years just after the nadir that give us our best blocking chances. My hunch is that the Pacific is rarely good this winter, but we will have periods where Atlantic blocking does the trick....saving us from a total ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Does anyone know what the other 4 winters were besides 2016-17? 1988-89 was one & it's also a strong analog for this winter for various reasons. If you look at that winter I encourage you look at it in 10 day increments. DEC had a good cold stretch & so did FEB/MAR. But JAN had a really strong warm stretch that kind of skews the 3 month mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I've seen research showing that it's the two years just after the nadir that give us our best blocking chances. My hunch is that the Pacific is rarely good this winter, but we will have periods where Atlantic blocking does the trick....saving us from a total ratter. I am going to present my work right after this election wraps up, but I do not think the Pacific will be wall-to-wall crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, stadiumwave said: 1988-89 was one & it's also a strong analog for this winter for various reasons. If you look at that winter I encourage you look at it in 10 day increments. DEC had a good cold stretch & so did FEB/MAR. But JAN had a really strong warm stretch that kind of skews the 3 month mean. I did not use it just because I felt it was significantly more strongly coupled than this event, however, I see the utility. I do not expect the pole to be quite so hostile this season....PDO will be worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am going to present my work right after this election wraps up, but I do not think the Pacific will be wall-to-wall crap. Uh oh, let's hope it's wrapped up before spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Uh oh, let's hope it's wrapped up before spring. I just mean "unofficial" end....I don't count the tired legal crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just mean "unofficial" end....I don't count the tired legal crap. I am thinking it will be over in a couple of hours when they finish up Arizona and Nevada. As soon as they saw the lead changing in those states.. voting mysteriously stopped.. I think that they are just trying to get the National Guard in place throughout the country and then drop the news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I am thinking it will be over in a couple of hours when they finish up Arizona and Nevada. As soon as they saw the lead changing in those states.. voting mysteriously stopped.. I think that they are just trying to get the National Guard in place throughout the country and then drop the news... I agree that it should be over later this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree that it should be over later this AM. Nevada reports at noonish eastern. Hopefully they’re done counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Nevada reports at noonish eastern. Hopefully they’re done counting. The bulk likely be counted by then but mail in ballots can arrive on Nov 10th and still be counted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The bulk likely be counted by then but mail in ballots can arrive on Nov 10th and still be counted. The hope is that they will have enough to declare a winner. Hopefully creepy Joe can spike a ballot and we can get on with our lives. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 12 hours ago, powderfreak said: ‘16-17 was a big 375” at the 3000ft High Road snow plot on Mansfield. That was actually the biggest winter I measured, in a decade of almost daily personal measurements up there. It’s certainly underrated for powder days in the hills. That winter also had Farmington being bumped out of 1st place for Maine's deepest snowpack (94", 10" above Farmington's in 1969(), though it's no shame to be topped by Chimney Pond at 2,920'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Classic strong Niña map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 LC Gonna have to deal with a rat - Spinazola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 I actually reall 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: LC Gonna have to deal with a rat - Spinazola I actually think that looks pretty reasonable. +2-2.5 at this latitude is not winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: A plus 1 or even 2 winter here definitely isn't a death knoll, especially inland where the temp band is low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: A plus 1 or even 2 winter here definitely isn't a death knoll, especially inland where the temp band is low. Plus 2 DJF implies that there is probably one good month in there, and I know where I stand on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plus 2 DJF implies that there is probably one good month in there, and I know where I stand on that. Yeah, your February torch is on them. I think February will be above normal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, your February torch is on them. I think February will be above normal as well. The model output looks neither unreasonable, or overly uninspiring to me...assuming expectations are calibrated with reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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