Winter 2020-2021

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think nyc weenies will be too happy with 20” this season. 

NYC’s average is more like 28” so 90% would be around 25”. I think after last winter most reasonable NYC posters would be quite happy with that.

[dmillz25]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is only one way to go but below average is still below average. When the Jets one season in the far distant future go 6-10 again, that shouldn’t be celebrated. 

Lol the Jets. But yes I agree to a certain extent. But beggars can’t be choosers

[dmillz25]

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

NYC’s average is more like 28” so 90% would be around 25”. I think after last winter most reasonable NYC posters would be quite happy with that.

Yeah 29” to be exact. And I would definitely be fine with 25” of snow

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m going 75% of our avg snowfall here so we’ll blow and plow a little. And it’s just hunch anyway. We could get 95/96 for all we know. 

I could see that. I am skeptical of EMA getting a great snowfall winter though. I am thinking 75% across most of New England with exception of Main NH and Vermont which will be 125%. Hopefully I am wrong and it's 95 96 or 10-11.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

NYC’s average is more like 28” so 90% would be around 25”. I think after last winter most reasonable NYC posters would be quite happy with that.

Lol. “Reasonable” NYC posters. 

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I could see that. I am skeptical of EMA getting a great snowfall winter though. I am thinking 75% across most of New England with exception of Main NH and Vermont which will be 125%. Hopefully I am wrong and it's 95 96 or 10-11.

Remember as discussed yesterday that EMA from ORH to BOS just picked up 10-13% of normal snowfall already.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Last time Pat's scored 28 points in four games? Fall of 1995.....I like that winter analog lol

[EastonSN+]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last time Pat's scored 28 points in four games? Fall of 1995.....I like that winter analog lol

Works for me.

[EastonSN+]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Remember as discussed yesterday that EMA from ORH to BOS just picked up 10-13% of normal snowfall already.  

Yeah I know it's a good head start for sure. However 2011, 1989 and 2018 can happen just as easily as 1995. 2012. 2002. Got clobbered early all the aforementioned years and ended up with a split between great and terrible winters. Maybe all the la Nina, missing NAO talk has me extra tentative. Probably can throw out 2011 and 2002 as the background state is completely different.

I did enjoy the snow the other day though. Hopefully we all end up with a solid winter - rooting for everyone.

[Greg]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

We do better than EMA when there is a negative NAO. Obviously we are not getting that this year sooooo we enjoy not snow blowing.

Not sure I totally agree with that statement. The - NAO depending on how far back with weather data you go generally indicates a fairly even percentage on that.

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last time Pat's scored 28 points in four games? Fall of 1995.....I like that winter analog lol

There's my silver lining.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Greg said:

Not sure I totally agree with that statement. The - NAO depending on how far back with weather data you go generally indicates a fairly even percentage on that.

Yeah I’m not understanding that.

[uncle W]

NYC snowfall for La nina winters...

60"+...............2...1995-96...2010-11

50"-59.9"........0

40"-49.9"........2.....2005-06...2017-18

30"-39.9"........3.....1955-56...2000-01...2016-17

20"-29.9"........7.....56-57...64-65...71-72...73-74...83-84...84-85...08-09

10"-19.9".......11....49-50...50-51...54-55...67-68...70-71...74-75...75-76...96-97...98-99...99-00...07-08

00"-09.9".........2.....88-89...11-12

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m not understanding that.

When there is a fast flow without blocking i.e. 2015 longitude seems to help ema. Strong blocking seems to lead to lows closer to coast. Some examples Dec 2010. Dec 2000.

Maybe I am off somehow in reasoning and it's just random storm tracks. Western and eastern New England seem to be equal in snow distribution over time. 

[stadiumwave]

Larry Cosgrove 

 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

When there is a fast flow without blocking i.e. 2015 longitude seems to help ema. Strong blocking seems to lead to lows closer to coast. Some examples Dec 2010. Dec 2000.

Maybe I am off somehow in reasoning and it's just random storm tracks. Western and eastern New England seem to be equal in snow distribution over time. 

December 2010 was great in Boston. 
 

So there are times where a west based -NAO may lead to huggers, but I think overall we certainly do want a -NAO for the big boys. A lot of our major snow events have had some serious blocking. Anywhere from DC to BOS wants blocking. 

[CoastalWx]

So Larry is cold everywhere. I’d sell that violently. 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So Larry is cold everywhere. I’d sell that violently. 

Deal with it

 

- Cosgrove 

 

He has not had a good winter forecast ever. Whatever his forecast is , if you go completely opposite , you will win every single time . And his very last point “if stronger Niña” tells you all you need to know . That’s his out 

[raindancewx]

His analogs do have some interesting features though. He's got warm periods in there for almost everyone - often near record warmth. Think December 2014 for the NE, or 1995/2005 for the SW. But then he has incredible cold periods like Jan-Mar 2014 and 2015 for the Midwest and NE. The mid-Dec to mid-Jan period in 1978-79 is super cold nationally, and as I've showed previously in here, Jan 3-9 1971 is insanely cold in the West, 20 below average in New Mexico and Colorado, for a week, despite that month warming up a lot later. The 1995 and 2009 winters are also pretty cold/snowy for a lot of the US. But 2005 is not. So I think he is trying to get at how volatile the winter could be.

Where I am he has December 1959 with two feet of snow in the valleys, and February 2015 with 10 inches of snow in the valleys. The mountains saw 50-100 inches in those periods in a week or so, and that does tend to happen every five years or so.  The 1959-60 period also has a major thaw in the middle of the country in the mid-Dec to mid-Jan period.

[stadiumwave]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Deal with it

 

- Cosgrove 

 

He has not had a good winter forecast ever. Whatever his forecast is , if you go completely opposite , you will win every single time . And his very last point “if stronger Niña” tells you all you need to know . That’s his out 

 

He did talk of warmth last year & was not popular. Larry is objective...not a "cold every year" wishcaster. He may be wrong but not for that reason.

Kind of refreshing to see someone not simply driven by nuances & status quo Climatology & make a cookie cutter La Nina forecast. That's lazy! And that is a lot of what I see every year nationally. 

It's evident from his analog years he put a lot of thought & considered many factors. 

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So Larry is cold everywhere. I’d sell that violently. 

But he is going for winter patterns ending around April 1st.  Really going out on a limb there, hopefully that one pans out for him.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But he is going for winter patterns ending around April 1st.  Really going out on a limb there, hopefully that one pans out for him.

Don’t forget it could be warmer than what we has. Not hard to do when you have the entire US colder than normal all 3 months.

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t forget it could be warmer than what we has. Not hard to do when you have the entire US colder than normal all 3 months.

I‘m busting his ballz a bit but he has been doing this for a long time... good luck to him.  Lot of recent analog years that sort of run the gamut.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Excerpt from Donny Baseball post in NYC forum. It’s LC vs the world 

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

I’d take 16-17 over last year’s disaster. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Excerpt from Donny Baseball post in NYC forum. It’s LC vs the world 

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

I don't disagree with any of that.

[JB_Wchstr]

15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d take 16-17 over last year’s disaster. 

15/16 and 19/20 were horrendous.  I know it wasn’t Nina but it was horrible. 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

15/16 and 19/20 were horrendous.  I know it wasn’t Nina but it was horrible. 

I had double the snow in 15-16 at least. Other than two weeks during last December, winter did not exist....except for May.  

[JB_Wchstr]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I had double the snow in 15-16 at least. Other than two weeks during last December, winter did not exist....except for May.  

I recall shorts on Christmas and tulips in February. No bueno 

[Great Snow 1717]

On 11/1/2020 at 5:50 PM, stadiumwave said:

 

He did talk of warmth last year & was not popular. Larry is objective...not a "cold every year" wishcaster. He may be wrong but not for that reason.

Kind of refreshing to see someone not simply driven by nuances & status quo Climatology & make a cookie cutter La Nina forecast. That's lazy! And that is a lot of what I see every year nationally. 

It's evident from his analog years he put a lot of thought & considered many factors. 

Agree.  His winter outlook has changed somewhat from his earlier thoughts  during the summer. Another thing about Cosgrove is he will adjust his forecast accordingly. Some will "drive" their cold & snowy winter forecast  off a cliff in an attempt to be right.  I prefer someone who adjusts the forecast as needed rather than someone who hangs on to his/her forecast in a desperate attempt to be right.