Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper. Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious. yeah ..that's got to be it, the one I'm thinking off. I was up at UML at the time and remember it took up a whole class session in discussion in FAST when we got around to it after the intersession.. . because it was like a 7 or 8,000 foot tall column b-52 carpet bombing sleet chunks while that S ( it was only moderate steady snow where we were in central-N Middls) .. .But these were big sleet pellets... punching holes in the new snow pack weird.. And it was knuckle stinging cold in that event... I think it was 22C on the station monitor with moderate sleet and S- at the time I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper. Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious. Maybe 1/14/99 storm you were thinking about? Paper attached 26215320.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, radarman said: Maybe 1/14/99 storm you were thinking about? Paper attached 26215320.pdf 1.12 MB · 1 download Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ... the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2020 Author Share Posted October 24, 2020 51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ... the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan Yeah...great find by radarman and interesting paper but it was definitely 1994. I do remember that 1999 event...starting off absolutely frigid and then going to 50+. Almost like a different January 1994 event where we were snowing and like 7F and then 10 hours later we were 50-55F with steaming snow banks before the front put the deep freeze back on everyone later that night. I actually think you’ve mentioned that storm before Tip when you were up at Lowell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 If anyone could post the CFS and UKMET NDJ, or DJB la Nina SST anomaly map, I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2020 Author Share Posted October 24, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If anyone could post the CFS and UKMET NDJ, or DJB la Nina SST anomaly map, I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks. Ray try this. I think it has ukmet on there (MetOffice) https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/ There’s an “NCEP” option. Not sure if that is the CFS or not. Probably is since I’m not aware of another domestic seasonal model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ray try this. I think it has ukmet on there (MetOffice) https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/ There’s an “NCEP” option. Not sure if that is the CFS or not. Probably is since I’m not aware of another domestic seasonal model. Thanks, Will. I take a look at this later. I have to bookmark these so I can stop harassing people every fall. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 the nao was positive almost the whole winter of 1993-94...it did go negative around Christmas 1993...it was negative for a few days in January and end of February...on the other hand the AO was negative for long periods... AO 1993 12 1 1.781 1993 12 2 1.635 1993 12 3 1.553 1993 12 4 1.720 1993 12 5 1.421 1993 12 6 0.925 1993 12 7 0.663 1993 12 8 -0.022 1993 12 9 -0.692 1993 12 10 -1.312 1993 12 11 -1.607 1993 12 12 -1.433 1993 12 13 -1.078 1993 12 14 -0.369 1993 12 15 -1.144 1993 12 16 -1.537 1993 12 17 -1.080 1993 12 18 0.022 1993 12 19 1.295 1993 12 20 1.901 1993 12 21 1.763 1993 12 22 0.497 1993 12 23 -0.293 1993 12 24 -0.517 1993 12 25 -1.129 1993 12 26 -1.649 1993 12 27 -1.401 1993 12 28 -0.654 1993 12 29 -0.431 1993 12 30 -0.742 1993 12 31 -1.201 1994 1 1 -0.871 1994 1 2 -0.761 1994 1 3 -1.023 1994 1 4 -1.107 1994 1 5 -1.892 1994 1 6 -3.054 1994 1 7 -2.881 1994 1 8 -2.700 1994 1 9 -2.913 1994 1 10 -3.073 1994 1 11 -2.820 1994 1 12 -1.965 1994 1 13 -1.127 1994 1 14 -1.440 1994 1 15 -1.804 1994 1 16 -1.028 1994 1 17 0.365 1994 1 18 1.959 1994 1 19 1.879 1994 1 20 2.470 1994 1 21 3.267 1994 1 22 3.221 1994 1 23 1.896 1994 1 24 0.959 1994 1 25 0.907 1994 1 26 1.005 1994 1 27 0.805 1994 1 28 0.215 1994 1 29 0.191 1994 1 30 1.181 1994 1 31 1.528 1994 2 1 1.535 1994 2 2 1.599 1994 2 3 0.503 1994 2 4 -0.865 1994 2 5 -1.166 1994 2 6 -1.451 1994 2 7 -1.321 1994 2 8 -0.483 1994 2 9 -0.055 1994 2 10 0.538 1994 2 11 0.892 1994 2 12 1.148 1994 2 13 0.848 1994 2 14 0.111 1994 2 15 -0.466 1994 2 16 -0.147 1994 2 17 -0.050 1994 2 18 -0.205 1994 2 19 -0.765 1994 2 20 -1.593 1994 2 21 -2.278 1994 2 22 -2.764 1994 2 23 -3.263 1994 2 24 -3.503 1994 2 25 -3.417 1994 2 26 -2.957 1994 2 27 -2.359 1994 2 28 -1.336 1994 3 1 0.321 1994 3 2 1.638 1994 3 3 1.977 1994 3 4 1.510 1994 3 5 1.390 1994 3 6 1.900 1994 3 7 1.860 1994 3 8 2.039 1994 3 9 2.500 1994 3 10 3.276 1994 3 11 2.997 1994 3 12 3.111 1994 3 13 3.795 1994 3 14 3.666 1994 3 15 2.393 1994 3 16 1.338 1994 3 17 0.685 1994 3 18 -0.041 1994 3 19 -0.473 1994 3 20 -0.287 1994 3 21 0.524 NAO 1993 11 30 1.291 1993 12 1 1.557 1993 12 2 1.538 1993 12 3 1.486 1993 12 4 1.390 1993 12 5 1.288 1993 12 6 1.175 1993 12 7 1.268 1993 12 8 1.564 1993 12 9 1.573 1993 12 10 1.297 1993 12 11 1.122 1993 12 12 1.009 1993 12 13 1.048 1993 12 14 1.476 1993 12 15 1.213 1993 12 16 1.065 1993 12 17 1.084 1993 12 18 1.177 1993 12 19 1.481 1993 12 20 1.444 1993 12 21 1.040 1993 12 22 0.346 1993 12 23 -0.395 1993 12 24 -0.685 1993 12 25 -0.824 1993 12 26 -0.854 1993 12 27 -0.495 1993 12 28 0.042 1993 12 29 0.169 1993 12 30 0.117 1993 12 31 0.187 1994 1 1 0.632 1994 1 2 0.627 1994 1 3 0.511 1994 1 4 0.707 1994 1 5 0.339 1994 1 6 -0.083 1994 1 7 0.119 1994 1 8 0.372 1994 1 9 0.079 1994 1 10 -0.200 1994 1 11 -0.254 1994 1 12 0.030 1994 1 13 0.231 1994 1 14 0.263 1994 1 15 0.171 1994 1 16 0.227 1994 1 17 0.469 1994 1 18 0.725 1994 1 19 0.883 1994 1 20 1.400 1994 1 21 1.736 1994 1 22 1.369 1994 1 23 0.999 1994 1 24 0.818 1994 1 25 0.890 1994 1 26 0.863 1994 1 27 0.586 1994 1 28 0.210 1994 1 29 0.420 1994 1 30 0.866 1994 1 31 1.118 1994 2 1 1.227 1994 2 2 1.150 1994 2 3 0.780 1994 2 4 0.492 1994 2 5 0.436 1994 2 6 0.342 1994 2 7 0.303 1994 2 8 0.296 1994 2 9 0.379 1994 2 10 0.765 1994 2 11 0.927 1994 2 12 1.058 1994 2 13 0.922 1994 2 14 0.382 1994 2 15 0.187 1994 2 16 0.480 1994 2 17 0.521 1994 2 18 0.215 1994 2 19 0.050 1994 2 20 0.064 1994 2 21 0.085 1994 2 22 0.262 1994 2 23 0.023 1994 2 24 -0.287 1994 2 25 -0.265 1994 2 26 -0.103 1994 2 27 -0.008 1994 2 28 0.111 1994 3 1 0.520 1994 3 2 0.843 1994 3 3 1.087 1994 3 4 0.959 1994 3 5 0.851 1994 3 6 1.134 1994 3 7 1.388 1994 3 8 1.554 1994 3 9 1.407 1994 3 10 1.248 1994 3 11 1.291 1994 3 12 1.355 1994 3 13 1.264 1994 3 14 1.202 1994 3 15 1.001 1994 3 16 0.462 1994 3 17 0.095 1994 3 18 -0.117 1994 3 19 -0.182 1994 3 20 -0.037 1994 3 21 0.288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...great find by radarman and interesting paper but it was definitely 1994. I do remember that 1999 event...starting off absolutely frigid and then going to 50+. Almost like a different January 1994 event where we were snowing and like 7F and then 10 hours later we were 50-55F with steaming snow banks before the front put the deep freeze back on everyone later that night. I actually think you’ve mentioned that storm before Tip when you were up at Lowell. Word! ...it's pretty much when I grew up as a fantasy Met into an adult pragmatic Met - lol... Before then, the specter of gaining 50 F in 12 hours was just too magnificent to believe... Since then nothing is amazing - geez It was 12 F at 8 am with flurries under very light pellets ... at 8 pm it was 61 on the monitor up at the UML lab ...while white noise turbines straining trees. And as you said, wind-whipped fogs shrouds being yanked off snow banks ... Students were pouring out of dorms to rejoice in the faux nature of the warmth ... energy and love for the loss - I mean..if one is a winter enthusiast. I think I was shaking my head in awe at one moment standing wondering how in the the f that was possible.. Yeah 8 am the next morning I think it was it was like 30 but cold enough to recement- ... Seriously, it was lessen in not being plugged into the the temp on the dial, when there is 0 polar high N of the region.. The high was retreating overnight and abandoned it's own decoupled air mass...so the cold was very low level... probably only 2000 feet deep with a hugely positively sloped sounding over top I imagine... But for those of us privy to our local climo ... all you need is " 1 " in polar high N and it disproportionately takes 12 to 18 more hours than even a quantum scale resolution model to admit the the cold is in place ...so, we get a payback on barrier jets and tucking when our moods fixed on keeping the goods and there's like any drain available at all... It just sucks when we get that going in early April - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Hope nobody quotes uncle W's post............ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Local NWS now has 4-9 inches of snow for Albuquerque from Monday morning to Wednesday morning. Record for October snow in Albuquerque is 3.2 inches for 1931-2019. Off the charts amazing if it verifies. Especially since the mountains could get 2-3 feet in some spots. If the NAO stays positive in November, that also favors New Mexico for precipitation. I do think these cold dumps down here are part of the pattern, given we're at two in two months. That said, I also think big moisture blobs coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is a feature, and will help you guys out when it is colder, given all the crap that they've dealt with on the Gulf Coast this hurricane season. The ACE index is also likely to top 140 or 145 now, depending on how long Zeta is over Mexico, which is starting to become more favorable (historically) to NE snowfall. https://t.co/CJsEuTGhNp?amp=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: The ACE index is also likely to top 140 or 145 now, depending on how long Zeta is over Mexico, which is starting to become more favorable (historically) to NE snowfall. That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast. In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 6 hours ago, raindancewx said: Local NWS now has 4-9 inches of snow for Albuquerque from Monday morning to Wednesday morning. Record for October snow in Albuquerque is 3.2 inches for 1931-2019. Off the charts amazing if it verifies. Especially since the mountains could get 2-3 feet in some spots. If the NAO stays positive in November, that also favors New Mexico for precipitation. I do think these cold dumps down here are part of the pattern, given we're at two in two months. That said, I also think big moisture blobs coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is a feature, and will help you guys out when it is colder, given all the crap that they've dealt with on the Gulf Coast this hurricane season. The ACE index is also likely to top 140 or 145 now, depending on how long Zeta is over Mexico, which is starting to become more favorable (historically) to NE snowfall. https://t.co/CJsEuTGhNp?amp=1 There is some chance Zeta is more directly beneficial to NE snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 TBH, I would rather pass on the big s stream from the Gulf, and just take my chances with the N stream. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I've got four inches of snow in my backyard as of 6 pm 10/26. First time I've ever seen snow in October. Roads were a bit of a mess too, which is probably the most impressive thing. Snow in October in the valleys in the SW is unusual, it gets some pretty interesting composites/years for the east actually. As far as the ACE goes, these little 65-75 knot hurricanes don't really add much to the totals, so I'd still bet against 160 ACE for the year. The calculation is highest wind speed every six hours in knots, squared, divided by 10,000. So a 100 kt hurricane would be four points if it lasted that intensity for a day. Zeta will weaken over Mexico. I really think once 2007 re-aligns with the 2020 MJO progression - possible in November - we'll see a pattern more akin to that year. CPC has 2007 as one of the main analogs in the 8-14 range now for the first time in a while. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 So is this temporary? I know @ORH_wxman had mentioned he thought easterlies would keep this east. Right now...clearly coldest anomalies chugging west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 8:14 PM, raindancewx said: I've got four inches of snow in my backyard as of 6 pm 10/26. First time I've ever seen snow in October. Roads were a bit of a mess too, which is probably the most impressive thing. Snow in October in the valleys in the SW is unusual, it gets some pretty interesting composites/years for the east actually. As far as the ACE goes, these little 65-75 knot hurricanes don't really add much to the totals, so I'd still bet against 160 ACE for the year. The calculation is highest wind speed every six hours in knots, squared, divided by 10,000. So a 100 kt hurricane would be four points if it lasted that intensity for a day. Zeta will weaken over Mexico. I really think once 2007 re-aligns with the 2020 MJO progression - possible in November - we'll see a pattern more akin to that year. CPC has 2007 as one of the main analogs in the 8-14 range now for the first time in a while. Thanks for your analysis, you have been spot on recently. Although this time I hope you are off that was a terrible winter snowfall wise in lower half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks for your analysis, you have been spot on recently. Although this time I hope you are off that was a terrible winter snowfall wise in lower half of SNE. But in the pike region and north it was pretty good to great south to north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 9 hours ago, stadiumwave said: So is this temporary? I know @ORH_wxman had mentioned he thought easterlies would keep this east. Right now...clearly coldest anomalies chugging west. Coldest anomalies are, and have been centered between 130 and 140W for a long time now. That should continue, and the eastern flank shouldn't warm too much. I think the region 4 will warm from current -0.9 to about -1.2 to -1.3, which doesn't change anything IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 This event is neither east Pac, nor west....its basin-wide. That isn't changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 This snow event for Boston is a good sign for the snow part of my winter outlook - NYC got jack, Boston got snow. I think that's going to repeat quite often in the winter. We'll see I guess. Definitely wasn't expecting record October snow in Boston and Albuquerque, that's one hell of a storm to do that, even with the huge SOI drop from the La Nina base state earlier in the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 hours ago, raindancewx said: This snow event for Boston is a good sign for the snow part of my winter outlook - NYC got jack, Boston got snow. I think that's going to repeat quite often in the winter. We'll see I guess. Definitely wasn't expecting record October snow in Boston and Albuquerque, that's one hell of a storm to do that, even with the huge SOI drop from the La Nina base state earlier in the month. I hope NYC does well this year also. Love when everyone shares in the wealth. Think you had them at 90% of average which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Hoping November cools off after later next week's warmth. October is going to finish about 1.5° BN and BN October/AN November is bad news for this area, at least based on the Farmington co-op. The comparisons below are split because 1893 thru summer 1966 the obs sites were in town and since September 1966 it's been 1.5 miles north of town center where houses are scattered and the land is mainly fields and trees. The current site has been slightly cooler and snowier than those in the built-up section of even this small town. Percentages of average snowfall: 1893/94 - 65/66 (Avg. 88.1") 66/67 on (Avg. 92.1") All years (Avg. 90.0") OCT-NOV both AN: 98.0% (n: 19) 97.8% (n: 15) 97.8% OCT-NOV both BN: 102.5% (n: 20) 103.6% (n: 14) 102.7% OCT BN-NOV AN: 93.9% (n: 14) 81.4% (n: 12) 88.0% OCT AN-NOV BN: 102.4% (n: 16) 113.1% (n: 13) 107.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 10/30/2020 at 10:02 PM, raindancewx said: This snow event for Boston is a good sign for the snow part of my winter outlook - NYC got jack, Boston got snow. I think that's going to repeat quite often in the winter. We'll see I guess. Definitely wasn't expecting record October snow in Boston and Albuquerque, that's one hell of a storm to do that, even with the huge SOI drop from the La Nina base state earlier in the month. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 10/31/2020 at 9:06 AM, EastonSN+ said: I hope NYC does well this year also. Love when everyone shares in the wealth. Think you had them at 90% of average which is good. I don’t think nyc weenies will be too happy with 20” this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. Northern jet dominated Miller B patterns generally suck here so have fun EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Northern jet dominated Miller B patterns generally suck here so have fun EMA. We do better than EMA when there is a negative NAO. Obviously we are not getting that this year sooooo we enjoy not snow blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We do better than EMA when there is a negative NAO. Obviously we are not getting that this year sooooo we enjoy not snow blowing. I’m going 75% of our avg snowfall here so we’ll blow and plow a little. And it’s just hunch anyway. We could get 95/96 for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t think nyc weenies will be too happy with 20” this season. After only 4.8” of snow last winter they better be happy with 20” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: After only 4.8” of snow last winter they better be happy with 20” There is only one way to go but below average is still below average. When the Jets one season in the far distant future go 6-10 again, that shouldn’t be celebrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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