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Winter 2020-2021


ORH_wxman
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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You guys are making me drool for this winter. LOL

I have never wanted summer to end so badly.

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ...

... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong ..  gee we wonder what

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches of fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ...

... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong ..  gee we wonder what

I'm not in coastal Rhode Island dude.

I just need the months to pass and then the snow will start. No trickery needed here.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I'm not in coastal Rhode Island dude.

I just need the months to pass and then the snow will start. No trickery needed here.

Everyone in here is a zealot… Dude it doesn’t matter whether in Rhode Island or Maine

plus I’m only kidding.. heh

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16 hours ago, tamarack said:

48.2" when we average 90.6" - awfuller. 
I think some VT sites take the booby prize.  IIRC, a couple places had their biggest 2015-16 snowfall on May 16, with about 4".  I thought we were deprived here in 05-06 when we failed to have a 6" event; can't imagine not even reaching 4.

I was in Peacham that season.  We ended up with 41" and the largest was on 12/29 with 5.5 inches.  The breakdown was: 

2015-16 Biggest 12/29 5.5 first, 10/17 last 5/16 

Oct-  .5  

Nov. .5  

Dec  7.0  

Jan  11.0 

Feb: 13.4 

Mch 3.7 

Apr  4.7 

May  .2

            Total: 41.0

The other years in Peacham where I tracked seasonal totals were:

2011-12 76.0   

2012-13 102.2   

2013-2014  total 105.0  

2014-15- Total111.6 

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One thing I would really love to do is start studying more (reading research papers, finding datasets to do analyses, etc) about the role/significance on the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere and the overall significance/impact this plays on the progression of the pattern moving through the Northern Hemisphere winter. I strongly feel this interaction plays a significant role...moreso than ENSO. One example would be the QBO and it's structure and how it is behaving moving through the fall and winter. Like right now it appears that we are in an upward propagating easterly phase (I think) and if that were to continue into the winter that would certainly increase the prospects for a better Arctic. If we can correlate that to a weak La Nina (this is just a basic look...obviously would want to get into the placement of the coldest anomalies) that would certainly increase prospects for us this winter.

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10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I just need the months to pass and then the snow will start. No trickery needed here.

That’s a great perspective.  If that nearby Randolph site is reflective of the snowfall in the general area… then simply LOL.  Based on the numbers I’ve seen, it won’t matter the long wave pattern, the storm track, the rain/snow line, the temperature departures, the states of the indices, or whatever factors people are going to discuss and stress over – the snow is just going to come in hand over fist.

I guess it’s possible, but I can’t imagine the area can really get to those types of insane snowfall numbers without at least some type of upslope component, so you’re probably looking at an average of roughly 100 days a year with some sort of snowfall.  I’m going to assume that you’re not like some on the forum that just want the occasional big storm to hit and then clear out so they don’t have to deal with that dreaded “nuisance” snow… because I have a suspicion that the winters in that area don’t quite run like that.

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On 7/16/2020 at 10:00 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ...

... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong ..  gee we wonder what

THIS winter the Cryosphere WILL be apocalyptic, what with wildfires and 100 degree days up in Siberia in June. EVERYONE from Atlanta to N Maine will get buried alive in deep snow this winter.

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On 7/15/2020 at 8:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

That's usually reserved for the big KU events, but even Gloucester is usually too far east for that. That's more cstl north shore in Essex county like Salem/Peabody. Usually winds aloft start turning east and pumping moisture off the water, while winds near and just inland from the coast are north. 1/2/14 was one that was not a classic KU...but they have wind off of 40+ SSTs into air that was barely above 0F. Absolute fluff bomb for Essex county, especially that area near Boxford.

The Jan 1978 event is one that nailed Gloucester with OES.

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4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Question for Connecticut folks. How much snow does Willimantic average? My brother and his girlfriend are relocating there until she can get transferred back to Michigan. Its a small town and I couldn't figure out with the variable snowfall averages in New England what side Willimantic lies lol. 

Willimantic is a local snow hole. Prob in the 40-45” range. While nearby elevated areas north and west are closer to 60”. 

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19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Question for Connecticut folks. How much snow does Willimantic average? My brother and his girlfriend are relocating there until she can get transferred back to Michigan. Its a small town and I couldn't figure out with the variable snowfall averages in New England what side Willimantic lies lol. 

It’s an awful awful area for snow. They get screwed every way possible whether it’s proximity to ocean , downsloping or sucker holed. They avg in the mid 30’s or so. It’s actually a medium sized city 

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19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s an awful awful area for snow. They get screwed every way possible whether it’s proximity to ocean , downsloping or sucker holed. They avg in the mid 30’s or so. It’s actually a medium sized city 

Oh wow, then that is definitely less than here. Im assuming snowcover isn't great either then? They dont have strong opinions one way or the other regarding winter (don't love it, don't hate it), plus its a temporary move, so I don't think they would care. But interesting nonetheless.

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30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh wow, then that is definitely less than here. Im assuming snowcover isn't great either then? They dont have strong opinions one way or the other regarding winter (don't love it, don't hate it), plus its a temporary move, so I don't think they would care. But interesting nonetheless.

Snowcover is brutal too. I can’t pinpoint one reason why the area is so bad, it’s just a combination of things. Not to say they can’t get a good storm there , because they certainly can and have. 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s an awful awful area for snow. They get screwed every way possible whether it’s proximity to ocean , downsloping or sucker holed. They avg in the mid 30’s or so. It’s actually a medium sized city 

I don't think it's that low. That's basically what the nearby coop averages (Storrs and Mansfield Hollow) with incomplete data....so you can prob add at least 6-10" to it. They are definitely bad snow holes though.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think it's that low. That's basically what the nearby coop averages (Storrs and Mansfield Hollow) with incomplete data....so you can prob add at least 6-10" to it. They are definitely bad snow holes though.

Well Uconn/ Storrs is much better. They sit up about 600 feet or so . IJD is like sea level lol

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IJD a snow hole but let's not be overdramatic.  It's still inland and a couple hundred feet elevation.  Like Will said, probably the low 40's but not a great spot for overall cover and retention but not as bad as living on the south coast.  I also live in a snow hole averaging around 48-50"

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks. 40-45 would be similar to here, probably the usual caveat of bigger storms but less snowfalls/snowcover overall. 

but at least I do better with  CAD/ and snow retention in  the CT river valley  further northwest.  I'm sure Willimantic cleaned up pretty well in some of those winters favoring Eastern New England  where the banding in the bigger storms was pivoting back through Eastern Connecticut while my location was sniffing exhaust.   

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Thanks for the info on CT. they'll be working at uconn. Its more for my own curiosity than theirs :lol:.   Not sure about the girlfriend but I know my brother well. He likes snow at first but then gets tired of it. Not sure if they'll be there more than 1 winter, so hopefully a noreaster happens this coming winter.  Actually, assuming the Winter will probably have less gray days, less snowy days, less days with snowcover, but a bigger shut-everything-down storm, that my be a type of winter my brother likes lol. if a 2+ foot storm happens I may have to come for a visit.

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I’m thinking decent winter based on solar minimum/starting it’s new cycle. NAO historically has had its best chance of being negative when solar cycle is at minimum and/or entering a new cycle. Pacific jet will be roaring as usual but could be nice if we can buckle the flow a little 

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