Winter 2020-2021

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked up Jan '71 for here. That was a frigid AND dry month. The lack of moisture basically was the reason for not having a blockbuster month. Go figure. 

I would watch for a lull period this season, though likely warmer.

[correnjim1]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You can already see the tendency in the ensembles to push the poleward Aleutian ridge.   The only question is whether it holds and also whether it migrates East or west.   

that's not something we want,right?

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, correnjim1 said:

that's not something we want,right?

You want a poleward Aleutian ridge. You also it to migrate east as well

[dryslot]

1970-71was second all time here with 144.70" that winter, Only 1961-62 topped it.

[correnjim1]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

You want a poleward Aleutian ridge. You also it to migrate east as well

thanks

[Snowstorms]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2010-11 was a cold, snowy winter but still had a few thaws. if not for a brief torch on new years and in mid feb we would have had a great pack.  After a nice white Christmas season, a torch on New Year's Eve zapped the 6" pack away. Snow cover returned a few days later and we nickeled and dimed all through January. much of Januarys snowpack ranged from 3-7" (all powder so settling/compacting)  The early February snowpack got up to about 16 to 18" before a mid February torch melted it.  This torch was a little worse than the New Year's Eve torch naturally because there was more snow to melt. The last of the snow outside of piles and drifts melted on the 19th then on the 20th we got a 10" snowstorm. The entire winter was all powder until a few clingy March storms. The winter ended around 70" with well below average temps but those few damn torches were the black marks. very few days of bare ground that winter but the 2 torches prevented a 2013-14esque pack.

 

There were a few torches that winter but nothing extraordinary. We only got above freezing 4 days in Jan 2011 and stayed below freezing from Dec 13-Dec 29. It wasn't 2013-14 type cold but it was below normal. Would I take a repeat? Sure, but only JFM. December was a massive disappointment for us. Not sure if it was the same for DTW. But the biggest disappointment for us was that Groundhog Day blizzard. Every single model had us receiving 15-20"+ the night before the storm, only to end up with less than 6" due to a massive dry slot and unique ice crystals. To this day I still consider that as our biggest disappointment in the last 15 years lol. 

[weathafella]

28 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

You want a poleward Aleutian ridge. You also it to migrate east as well

You’d rather have it further East so if it’s in the Aleutian area it better go way poleward and hopefully some luck.

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’d rather have it further East so if it’s in the Aleutian area it better go way poleward and hopefully some luck.

Here's some winters that were pretty good La Ninas with a bit of strength to them (i.e. I didn't include weak Ninas like 1995-1996 and 2000-2001 that behaved almost like El Ninos)

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

There were a few torches that winter but nothing extraordinary. We only got above freezing 4 days in Jan 2011 and stayed below freezing from Dec 13-Dec 29. It wasn't 2013-14 type cold but it was below normal. Would I take a repeat? Sure, but only JFM. December was a massive disappointment for us. Not sure if it was the same for DTW. But the biggest disappointment for us was that Groundhog Day blizzard. Every single model had us receiving 15-20"+ the night before the storm, only to end up with less than 6" due to a massive dry slot and unique ice crystals. To this day I still consider that as our biggest disappointment in the last 15 years lol. 

December wasn't so much snowy but it was a cold cloudy month so snow remained on the ground. The dec 10th storm solidified a nice 6" pack that didn't budge til new years. I take back what I said earlier, that dec storm was wet snow but instantly froze in the bitter cold after the storm. omg I used to get so tired of hearing about the Ghd bust lol. We had 10" but were forecast like 15" but then 3 days later we got 4-6" when forecast partly sunny and on feb 20 we got 10" when forecast 1-3". we had a deep winter wonderland and all snow weenies were doing was complaining about a storm bust lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 hours ago, correnjim1 said:

thanks

You want the weenie growing and pointing as far north as possible. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Man...did we whiff alot Feb 11? 

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, dryslot said:

1970-71was second all time here with 144.70" that winter, Only 1961-62 topped it.

2nd at Farmington too, with 154", only 10" less than 68-69.  Farmington's snowiest Dec was 1970, something like 54", and PWM's coldest for any month was Jan. 1971.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Generally speaking, and geographically speaking, if Boston and Plymouth are the coastal plain, what is Cape Cod and the Islands?

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Generally speaking, and geographically speaking, if Boston and Plymouth are the coastal plain, what is Cape Cod and the Islands?

Bermuda 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bermuda 

haha, the sub-tropics

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Too easy lol.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Man...did we whiff alot Feb 11? 

It was better the further north you went. Pike region got hit pretty hard during the Groundhog Day two part system. There was a big thaw mid-month that lasted 3-4 days for the meat of it. Knocked my pack down from like 38” to 20” or so. 

There was a pretty good snow to ice back to snow event for CNE on 2/25/11...really hammered over from Brian’s area to southern ME (apparently only moderately fringed tamarack’s area per an earlier post about this storm) where they had a foot-plus in some spots....down here we had like 1-2” on the front end and then had another 1-2” when it flipped back. A lot of ZR in between in ORH. I don’t think there was much down in your hood. Maybe an inch or so but you prob had some ZR for a while. 

Then on 2/27 there was a clipper/redeveloper that was really good for the MA/NH border region. We had like 3” in ORH but Megan was living up in North Chelmsford at the time and I was actually up there for that event and measured 7.5”. The jackpot was just a tad further north than that from Ray’s current area into SE NH where they had 9” I believe. Big positive bust system up in that general area...a really heavy band blew up as the system was exiting stage-right. 

Then yet another system the next day started...big icing over interior ORH area  we had like 3/8th of ice and started getting a few power issues before it ended as 33-34 rain. 

Winter basically ended after that around here....there was the really tight gradient WNW to ESE frontal system that hammered powderfreak’s area on 3/6-7 I believe but virtually nowhere else in New England got in on that....the rare almost-exclusively longitude system  

We did get s few cameo events such as around the equinox and then again on 3/31-4/1 but by then the pack had mostly been eradicated and the winter feel was gone.

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was better the further north you went. Pike region got hit pretty hard during the Groundhog Day two part system. There was a big thaw mid-month that lasted 3-4 days for the meat of it. Knocked my pack down from like 38” to 20” or so. 

There was a pretty good snow to ice back to snow event for CNE on 2/25/11...really hammered over from Brian’s area to southern ME (apparently only moderately fringed tamarack’s area per an earlier post about this storm) where they had a foot-plus in some spots....down here we had like 1-2” on the front end and then had another 1-2” when it flipped back. A lot of ZR in between in ORH. I don’t think there was much down in your hood. Maybe an inch or so but you prob had some ZR for a while. 

Then on 2/27 there was a clipper/redeveloper that was really good for the MA/NH border region. We had like 3” in ORH but Megan was living up in North Chelmsford at the time and I was actually up there for that event and measured 7.5”. The jackpot was just a tad further north than that from Ray’s current area into SE NH where they had 9” I believe. Big positive bust system up in that general area...a really heavy band blew up as the system was exiting stage-right. 

Then yet another system the next day started...big icing over interior ORH area  we had like 3/8th of ice and started getting a few power issues before it ended as 33-34 rain. 

Winter basically ended after that around here....there was the really tight gradient WNW to ESE frontal system that hammered powderfreak’s area on 3/6-7 I believe but virtually nowhere else in New England got in on that....the rare almost-exclusively longitude system  

We did get s few cameo events such as around the equinox and then again on 3/31-4/1 but by then the pack had mostly been eradicated and the winter feel was gone.

 

 

Thanks. Yea. I remember winter practically ended after the late Jan KU but looking at that map...puzzled how we couldn’t come up with anything substantial in Feb.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks. Yea. I remember winter practically ended after the late Jan KU but looking at that map...puzzled how we couldn’t come up with anything substantial in Feb.

Yeah we were prob slightly unlucky in Feb considering it was cold and pretty active still. But then again we kept pulling triple 7s on the slot machine in January so I guess we were due for a few misses. 

One of these years we’ll keep it going. Might be a one in 200 year type lucky break, but eventually there will be the January 2011 pattern (or feb 2015) and instead of things basically ending, you continue it on a less obscene scale but it drives the winter into unprecedented territory. I sort of picture something like ‘95-‘96 without the 2nd half of January utter meltdown pattern or maybe 2010-2011 where we get a little luckier in February/March. Something like that. Hopefully we’re alive to see it, lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we were prob slightly unlucky in Feb considering it was cold and pretty active still. But then again we kept pulling triple 7s on the slot machine in January so I guess we were due for a few misses. 

One of these years we’ll keep it going. Might be a one in 200 year type lucky break, but eventually there will be the January 2011 pattern (or feb 2015) and instead of things basically ending, you continue it on a less obscene scale but it drives the winter into unprecedented territory. I sort of picture something like ‘95-‘96 without the 2nd half of January utter meltdown pattern or maybe 2010-2011 where we get a little luckier in February/March. Something like that. Hopefully we’re alive to see it, lol. 

It’s crazy how the top shelf winters for SNE come in quick stretches and when you look back, if it was extended a bit more or had we gotten ‘luckier’...how bigger it could have been. I guess ideal patterns can’t lock in for 3 months but maybe with CC, it could happen eventually?  

[raindancewx]

I'd like to see a winter as volatile as 1970-71, but the national map for October is pretty much opposite 2020, which to me implies big MJO differences. It's a ~record cold Colorado / warm East coast look. My take is if the MJO is in opposite phases (for sensible weather in the US) this close to winter, it usually won't realign with the current year. 1999-00 is close to this year in October, and 2007 is kind of in between. The ACE index in 1970 was only 40 in the Atlantic, and it was high solar and a -NAO. So I'm not huge on it. That said, pretty powerful La Nina and it followed two El Ninos, which is pretty rare.  We had accumulating snow in October 1970, which is rare (~once a decade for Albuquerque). So I don't think it's terrible. It meets the criteria for me as a "regional" analog, but not close enough to be good nationally. Starting Oct 16, each 30 day period through Spring was either very hot or very cold here in the 1970-71 cold season, so it'd be an interesting thing to see. Mid Oct-Mid Nov and Mid Jan-Mid Feb had essentially the same high here in 1970-71, which is nuts.

I caved to the models, and made the October analog blend 2003 (x5), 1995, 2007 when I saw the CFS late September. But the winter blend actually looks fine overall for October, better than what the CFS / Canadian had. Should have kept it. The unweighted blend of 1995, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2019 has been pretty decent for US temps for a while now, at least spatially. The main miss this month will be the NW west of Montana. Heading into this month, the models has +5 to +10 anomalies in Montana, and they're already cold for the month despite the warm start, with record October cold coming this week. The SE warmth being strongest in TX/FL-SC is a feature I'd expect to see in winter, same with the SW warmth being strongest in Southern California/Arizona. A lot of the warmth here will be destroyed in the next week, but we'll still finish warm.

[powderfreak]

I see JSpin lurking, but I was just looking at his website write-ups for 2010-11 trying to find a Feb event with thundersnow.

Anyway, what an extremely consistent winter that was.  Oddly enough, March had the biggest event but was the lowest snowfall of the winter months.  Doesn’t get much more consistent than that.

[powderfreak]

This was the event I remember from that February 2011 that had thundersnow where the mix line just barely tickled us.  I remember a couple flashes of lightning out walking the dog in the evening and luckily JSpin crushes the record database to record this stuff lol.  It was a quick 1.0” QPF event of dense snow.

“Also at around 9:30 P.M. we had a flash of lighting; at first I wasn’t sure if I’d seen it, but them my wife, who was upstairs, asked me if I’d just taken a picture and that answered that.  And now we just had a long rumble of thunder as well – neat stuff.”

 

[uncle W]

Boston had long stretch of snow cover from just before Christmas 1970 through most of January 1971...nice white Christmas that year...it doesn't come close to 1947-48 which had snow on the ground from Dec 23rd  to March 16th despite getting beat on 12/26-27/47...a nice white Christmas though from a 10" storm a few days before......

[weathafella]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's some winters that were pretty good La Ninas with a bit of strength to them (i.e. I didn't include weak Ninas like 1995-1996 and 2000-2001 that behaved almost like El Ninos)

 

We did amazingly well I 2007-08 considering that shitty look.

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

We did amazingly well I 2007-08 considering that shitty look.

07 08 wasn't great here too far south

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

We did amazingly well I 2007-08 considering that shitty look.

Forgettable overall though, except for December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

07 08 wasn't great here too far south

I would take a 2007 replica season and run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Forgettable overall though, except for December. 

Even closing in on 40, I could keep 90" in the memory bank lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even closing in on 40, I could keep 90" in the memory bank lol

Well much better there, but other than that December...wasn't much to write home about near and south of pike. Blue balled after December.