CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 I think the only group preferring '11-'12, would be the south coast into interior srn CT. They got the Halloween snow and also that weenie deformation band on 1/19 or whenever that day was. The south coast just got the deformation snows in January of that year, but shit...that was 10-12". I couldn't buy 5" that year in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 No arg from me... I said just yesterday or the day before whenever that was that this might be a good year for NJ Model lows ... Miller B's fits in with those. We just gotta make sure the ambient flow doesn't end up with too may hypsometric lines ... because that is synonymous with huge wind as a base-state. That's bad for S/W's because their local wind maxes get absorbed - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Guys are setting the bar low for this winter conversing whether you would take a 11-12 or 19-20 esque-winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 You can actually see that in the 'art' of weather graphics when peering over the 500 mb v- ...The positive vorticities swaths begin to curve or bow such that the southern ends lag back SW... That's absorption happening. Here's an example of the resulting positive sloping... random interval off the 12z GFS to illustrate the point: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Guys are setting the bar low for this winter conversing whether you would take a 11-12 or 19-20 esque-winter lol. Everyone seems to be pretty pessimistic or at least quite cautious. That means it will probably be a blockbuster, lol. Not surprising though, recency bias is a huge factor in expectations. When we were churning out big snowstorms like sneakers at a Nike sweatshop, everyone always expected the next winter to be huge. Everyone also expected that we'd keep seeing the big -AO/NAO patterns we saw 2007-2013 too. Even blaming climate change on it (recall the "low sea ice = -AO" studies that were coming out?)...now that we have been dealing with a relentless +AO recently, the narrative and expectations have flipped. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2010-2011 teleconnections are going to be pretty similar this year and I recall Lowell & Blue Hill (two stations I closely follow) did well that year. EDIT: And when I say teleconnections I mean ENSO phase, QBO, PDO, AMO which I quickly looked up. I know there's more to it obviously but just quick glance that's what I'm gathering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Everyone seems to be pretty pessimistic or at least quite cautious. That means it will probably be a blockbuster, lol. Not surprising though, recency bias is a huge factor in expectations. When we were churning out big snowstorms like sneakers at a Nike sweatshop, everyone always expected the next winter to be huge. Everyone also expected that we'd keep seeing the big -AO/NAO patterns we saw 2007-2013 too. Even blaming climate change on it (recall the "low sea ice = -AO" studies that were coming out?)...now that we have been dealing with a relentless +AO recently, the narrative and expectations have flipped. It's an interesting turn of phrase 'recency bias' I know you don't mean anything by it ...but 'bias' tends to imply an attitude against something, particularly in the parlance of an internet "water cooler" social media diversion - haha... but yeah ... I like to rely upon trend quite a bit. Trend awareness is equally fair as a word choice, and is actually a wise factor in any deterministic aspect of weather forecast - range and domain notwithstanding. Particularly, when a given trend can be rooted ...or at in the least suspected as being, causally linked to x-y-z ..etc. In this case? I think there are reasons - valid - to assess the trend of recent winters may repeat? And I mean to put the "?" on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I don't prefer 11-12, but last year was right up there locally. I mean after that December event, we had the advisory deal mid month...but nothing after that. Some minor thing in January, and that was it. There was nothing to look forward to. And then as if 2020 wasn't starting out bad enough, mother nature decided one more bend over and have a frigid April and May. Maybe COVID is influencing it, but I am happy to look past winter of '19-'20. Yes, seeing legit snowflakes on the coastal plain in May was the ultimate insult after last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 I think being "quite cautious" is a fair assumption, especially since past couple winters for E MA have suckeddddd but most of you on here are smart enough to know that can all turn on a dime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I think being "quite cautious" is a fair assumption, especially since past couple winters for E MA have suckeddddd but most of you on here are smart enough to know that can all turn on a dime. Georgey Pourgey...haha Nah, nothing to do with last two winters. I secretly have a bit of a good feeling...but there is no science in that..lol. Just maybe playing the odds a bit. I'm hoping we can end the stretch of black holes near Greenland for once. At least maybe have it average more neutral. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Georgey Pourgey...haha Nah, nothing to do with last two winters. I secretly have a bit of a good feeling...but there is no science in that..lol. Just maybe playing the odds a bit. I'm hoping we can end the stretch of black holes near Greenland for once. At least maybe have it average more neutral. Can't resist this winter disco man I gotta get my fix somewhere! Haha. Don't miss the cold/snow one bit (unless it's a crippling blizzard) but I love forecasting it just as much as anyone else even though I'm in TX now lol. I feel good about this winter up there too I think at least an "average" winter is on tap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 My issue is that the winter master was supposed to be a blockbuster winter, which was forecasted by many meteorologists. We want of having a crappy winter. So I'm not worrying about what they're saying at this point as things can change in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Snow weenies in Nagano just threw their computers out the window. Well, at least the UKMET has a good looking January for eastern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That screams SWFE and Miller B East to me. 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like a milder version of 1968-69...how much milder and how much snow dependent upon NAO. Jeff must be just naked and sprawled out on a bear skin rug in the woods, oiling himself. Oh boy, oh boy oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 I like how it’s not just below normal red, it’s snowball chance in hell red...lol. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 May the Brits fall on their swords! Then again we can always go to the Puget Sound area..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Ha. I’m not that shook. I just think we are in a bad phase for winters. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a good season here or there though but the general idea of struggling to produce big snows will be the prevailing theme. Years ago, a Jimmy fart in Harwich after a steak dinner would spin up a low along the gulf stream and the atmosphere squeezes out a foot without blinking. Maybe it’s Tippy’s HC fetish that is dominating our winters, I don’t know. I think when we look back 10 years from now we will remember the late 2010’s and early 2020’s as a pretty crappy period akin to the 80s or late 90s. It’s actually pretty normal to go through bad stretches so it’s nothing anomolous, I’m used to it growing up in CNJ. Maybe this winter will be solid but I’m not overly excited when many pros talk about an early start with an early finish with a strengthening La Nina while the big climo models show AN temps with BN precip. However, if Mother Earth drops a 20 burger on me this season after a 10 year drought...then I’m good. We’ll see but my expectations are very low this pre season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Hazey said: I like how it’s not just below normal red, it’s snowball chance in hell red...lol. #NovaScotiaStrong I'll just do my riding in Labrador, No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'll just do my riding in Labrador, No biggie. Is Canada still keeping us southerners out of their country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Is Canada still keeping us southerners out of their country? Oh sh it, That's right, Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Is Canada still keeping us southerners out of their country?Yes....my wife's parents live in Nova Scotia (Cape Breton). She hasn't seen them since last Thanksgiving. Her dad had triple bypass in June and she hasn't been able to go up there. Sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Is Canada still keeping us southerners out of their country? Lol, yes. Nobody wants to let us in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Uh- oh. Hope everyone is prepping for rat of rats 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Uh- oh. Hope everyone is prepping for rat of rats Lol..you can believe that nonsense if you want. Or stir the pot like you’re doing also. But all that doesn’t mean jack. Cuz last year they(Euro etc) all showed great news, and we were supposedly in for what looked to be a Fabo winter....ya how’d that work out for us...? So go and buy in(stir the pot) all you want, I’ll stay cautiously optimistic for a normal winter season after last years total dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol..you can believe that nonsense if you want. Or stir the pot like you’re doing also. But all that doesn’t mean jack. Cuz last year they(Euro etc) all showed great news, and we were supposedly in for what looked to be a Fabo winter....ya how’d that work out for us...? So go and buy in(stir the pot) all you want, I’ll stay cautiously optimistic for a normal winter season after last years total dud. Nothing showed that last winter. Either you were cocked or your monitor was upside down when you were reading winter outlooks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The Jamstec has in October 2020 what it forecast in October 2016 for 2016-17, and that ended up a cold NW winter, which I take as a decent sign for my outlook. I did look - the Oct correlation for the NAO v. DJF disappears even on the "after El Nino years" thing I did before since 1990 or 2000, although it is less than 10 years since 2000 and not a good way to use correlations at that point. Once the coming cold dumps into the NW, this October will probably to look a lot like the composite of some of the prior Octobers following two El Ninos ahead of a cold ENSO winter. April/May are actually better at predicting the NAO in winter than October is, despite how far out they are. We had a -NAO in April this year for the first time in forever, so that makes it unlikely to me that recent years would be super similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 A cocked Wolfie would be bad news for society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol, yes. Nobody wants to let us in. I see Albania is welcoming Americans... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing showed that last winter. Either you were cocked or your monitor was upside down when you were reading winter outlooks Can you link is to last years euro seasonal at this lead time? TYIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Fixed it... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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