CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the ncep version looked pretty solid most of the winter. Euro was hideous after a decent December. There were some others too that I had to twist my neck on lol. I think it just comes down to the Atlantic this year. We’ll probably have the typical Niña PAC, we’ll just have to pray for no black holes near Greenland. Or if there is, just one near Labrador lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The NAO Oct v. Dec-Feb NAO thing actually is pretty unreliable most of the time. It's only in the Octobers following an El Nino winter that it becomes somewhat reliable as a negatively correlated indicator for winter. It's still only like r-squared of 0.2 though. But in the other years it's completely useless. It's why I don't use it in my main NAO prediction method. It has ~weak skill in years following El Nino if you're charitable. It's probably fairly safe this year since the October NAO will likely be -1 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, its a no-brainer that if De flops in a nina, you are screwed. But even the EURO looks good for December. So you’re thinking one month of true winter followed by a lot of meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Some of those looked pretty good to me? Stout Aleutian ridge and at times into AK ridge with a cold Canada. Some of those had heights BN right near the US border. That would definitely have some cold to hopefully tap. I thought it looked serviceable. It wasn't a non-starter....especially north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So you’re thinking one month of true winter followed by a lot of meh? Not exactly. I do think that December will be the best month, but will explain some other periods to watch. I feel like two portions of the season in particular are relative wild cards that may make of break the season. My outlook will be out in a few weeks...it should be much easier to read this season, so you won't need to set aside several hours, either. If you want to exhaustively review the fundamentals, which I encourage, that will option will exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 11 hours ago, raindancewx said: The NAO Oct v. Dec-Feb NAO thing actually is pretty unreliable most of the time. It's only in the Octobers following an El Nino winter that it becomes somewhat reliable as a negatively correlated indicator for winter. It's still only like r-squared of 0.2 though. But in the other years it's completely useless. It's why I don't use it in my main NAO prediction method. It has ~weak skill in years following El Nino if you're charitable. It's probably fairly safe this year since the October NAO will likely be -1 or lower. Bingo. There is SOME value to it if used appropriately, which Judah is not doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 12 hours ago, raindancewx said: The NAO Oct v. Dec-Feb NAO thing actually is pretty unreliable most of the time. It's only in the Octobers following an El Nino winter that it becomes somewhat reliable as a negatively correlated indicator for winter. It's still only like r-squared of 0.2 though. But in the other years it's completely useless. It's why I don't use it in my main NAO prediction method. It has ~weak skill in years following El Nino if you're charitable. It's probably fairly safe this year since the October NAO will likely be -1 or lower. can you run that regression for prior to, then post ... 1990... say .... or 2000, separately ? granted the sample set size is not inspiring much confidence in the latter interval - I still want to see the result. you've got all instances in there ...judging by the shear number in the scatter plot ( eye-ballin' ) that's like all ENSO deviation demarcation events going back ... I dunno but a long ways? I don't think the ENSO states are "as effectual" in modulating the winter patterns since 2000 as they were prior to that for a bevy of reasons that I've opined ad nauseam and don't wanna get into at the moment... But, it may also be that there's just not enough scatter plot ballast since 1990/2000 in to be of much use either - hands cuffed by prediction vs having to wait on verification in that sense I suspect the warm ENSO events have more memory than the other way around, particularly prior to 2000. But, because the other way around is more likely the base state in having "normal" unimpeded trade wind sea-surface stressing, that tends to keep the NINO 3.4, 1 and 2 regions less than EL NINO ... The base canvas would thus 'erase' the modest NINA events by virtue of merely absorbing its signature into the ongoing circulation of the hemisphere in those scenarios... NINOs however, might be more observably lingering ... just a hunch but also a digression - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Lol shut it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 I was just about to post that. We are in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I was just about to post that. We are in big trouble. I don't put much stock in that...it essentially means there is a heightened risk for below normal snow relative to climo...this isn't news considering an intensifying la nina. It doesn't mean a repeat of last season is en route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Luke is shook. I take solace that it cannot be worse than last season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I was just about to post that. We are in big trouble. And everything was looking great last fall for a very good winter, and it was a total flop/ratter. I don’t put too much stock into any of that long range stuff like that anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Luke is shook. I take solace that it cannot be worse than last season. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Luke is shook. I take solace that it cannot be worse than last season. I tried to think about that in a context that the model thinks temperature will be considerably above normal here. So even if it has an okay 500 look...temperatures in December here are strongly inversely correlated with snowfall (Precip matters more than temps in jan thru mar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And everything was looking great last fall for a very good winter, and it was a total flop/ratter. I don’t put too much stock into any of that long range stuff like that anymore. Yes. The euro looked great last year at this time. Again, not to discount the fact that there are some factors working against us, but it could def. look worse IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Luke is shook. I take solace that it cannot be worse than last season. I can IMO....2011-2012 was worse for me. Got boned in the October deal, and the rest was a non starter. At least I got that MECS in December during the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 There are several seasons throughout my life that I would rate as worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can IMO....2011-2012 was worse for me. Got boned in the October deal, and the rest was a non starter. At least i got that MECS in December during the holiday season. Yeah, not south of a LWM to BDL line or so. Last year sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah, not south of a LWM to BDL line or so. Last year sucked. Right....MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I tried to think about that in a context that the model thinks temperature will be considerably above normal here. So even if it has an okay 500 look...temperatures in December here are strongly inversely correlated with snowfall (Precip matters more than temps in jan thru mar). Good point, I'd like to see the precip anomalies too along side that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are several seasons throughout my life that I would rate as worse than last year. I agree. I'll take last year over 2011-12 any day. 2011-12 was the least snowiest winter on record for us. 2009-10 is third believe it or not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good point, I'd like to see the precip anomalies too along side that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That screams SWFE and Miller B East to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That screams SWFE and Miller B East to me. Yeah I was gonna say, there is your OV track to cyclogenesis near the New England coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I was gonna say, there is your OV track to cyclogenesis near the New England coast. Looks like a milder version of 1968-69...how much milder and how much snow dependent upon NAO. Jeff must be just naked and sprawled out on a bear skin rug in the woods, oiling himself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, not south of a LWM to BDL line or so. Last year sucked. Ugh....I'll take last year over '11-'12 any day. At least I had snow pack for 27 days in December last year. Jan/Feb was worse than 2012, but I can't ignore the monstrous December difference. I guess if you largely missed the early Dec storm, then I could see how '11-'12 would be preferred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ugh....I'll take last year over '11-'12 any day. At least I had snow pack for 27 days in December last year. Jan/Feb was worse than 2012, but I can't ignore the monstrous December difference. I guess if you largely missed the early Dec storm, then I could see how '11-'12 would be preferred. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ugh....I'll take last year over '11-'12 any day. At least I had snow pack for 27 days in December last year. Jan/Feb was worse than 2012, but I can't ignore the monstrous December difference. I guess if you largely missed the early Dec storm, then I could see how '11-'12 would be preferred. I don't prefer 11-12, but last year was right up there locally. I mean after that December event, we had the advisory deal mid month...but nothing after that. Some minor thing in January, and that was it. There was nothing to look forward to. And then as if 2020 wasn't starting out bad enough, mother nature decided one more bend over and have a frigid April and May. Maybe COVID is influencing it, but I am happy to look past winter of '19-'20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't prefer 11-12, but last year was right up there locally. I mean after that December event, we had the advisory deal mid month...but nothing after that. Some minor thing in January, and that was it. There was nothing to look forward to. And then as if 2020 wasn't starting out bad enough, mother nature decided one more bend over and have a frigid April and May. Maybe COVID is influencing it, but I am happy to look past winter of '19-'20. Me too....but not if someone is offering '11-'12 as the alternative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Lol shut it down. Snow weenies in Nagano just threw their computers out the window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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