Winter 2020-2021

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel pretty good about this season not being as bad as last year.

It can’t get any worse lol so yes, agree. It’s all relative...we are in the midst of another bad stretch though. Doesn’t mean we can’t have a good winter but when we look back at these years they will feel like the 80s.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around.

I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.

Mmm I'm not sure to which conversation you refer to when/where I "refuted" - but fwiw, I have been very clear in hard text .. if not implicitly, that 'these are not absolute' ; it's about offsetting mitigators.  

ENSO is not 0 influencing ... duh.. 

The idea is as it should be, that it is not AS influencing when smothered inside an expanded HC - ...I even said, the 'art is how much so' at one point or the other.  

I just don't like the ready-reliance on ENSO as it doesn't fit with my personal perspective from education, a-priori as well as purely observational reasons. Off the record, in my own little fantasy world I'm actually put off by the ENSO failures as of the last decade to the point where I'm hostile and want to throw my hands and say it's all BS but out of respect for my fellow minds and that my indignation isn't so righteous ... I figure I could be wrong in absolution- haha

Caveat emptor I suppose.  

But, warm(cool) ENSOs have not manifested the impacts they typically due around the Globe's known climate routes, ...over the last 10 to 15 years, as notably as they did prior to the coincident onset of the HC expansion - which to reiterate, is not me alone averring that circumstantial emergence.  I have cited links and climate reports and papers oh my!  

I understand that these are large - in geological time concerns ... -- nearly instantaneous changes, but that unfortunately requires a proportional ability to be mutable and adapt if one is in the business of using "environmental signaling" to prognosticate.   

But I also admit there is a bit of smoldering commentary along the way that the Earth is in deep f'n trouble ... but it is what it is.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Can we lock in this general pattern for the winter?

That's a terrible look.... All the balancing is already stored in that usually deep vortex with huge saturated rampart of heights and violent wind so that's not doing anything - 

you want softer 'hypsometric' gradient, with steeper 'thickness gradient' underneath...  It's complex -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Because I have to:

 

[CoastalWx]

Voodoo Advancement Index. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm I'm not sure to which conversation you refer to when/where I "refuted" - but fwiw, I have been very clear in hard text .. if not implicitly, that 'these are not absolute' ; it's about offsetting mitigators.  

ENSO is not 0 influencing ... duh.. 

It's not AS influencing inside an expanded HC - ...I even said, the 'art is how much so' at one point or the other.  

I just don't like the ready-reliance on ENSO as it doesn't fit with my personal perspective from education, a-priori as well as purely observational reasons. Off the record, in my own little fantasy world I'm actually put off by the ENSO failures as of the last decade to the point where I'm hostile and want to throw my hands and say it's all BS but out of respect for my fellow minds and that my indignation isn't so righteous ... I figure I could be wrong in absolution- haha

Caveat emptor I suppose.  

But, warm(cool) ENSOs have not manifested the impacts they typically due around the Globe's known climate routes, ...over the last 10 to 15 years, as notably as they did prior to the coincident onset of the HC expansion - which to reiterate, is not me alone averring that circumstantial emergence.  I have cited links and climate reports and papers oh my!  

I understand that these are large - in geological time concerns ... -- nearly instantaneous changes, but that unfortunately requires a proportional ability to be mutable and adapt if one is in the business of using "environmental signaling" to prognosticate.   

But I also admit there is a bit of smoldering commentary along the way that the Earth is in deep f'n trouble ... but it is what it is.

All I meant was you didn't necessarily endorse the idea that cool ENSO will be generally accentuated in a world of warmer waters.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel pretty good about this season not being as bad as last year.

Even though last winter was ridiculously warm, we still managed to finish above average. Not saying that's the outcome in every warm winter. For example, 2011-12 was shit show. Not taking anything on the long-range models at face value. But with the exceptional decline in Arctic sea ice since 2011, one would have to assume all that ocean heat being released back into atmosphere in the Fall would have an impact on the winter NAO/AO. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh,  I agree. This la nina is coupled.

The stronger/ing HC might also sustain stronger easterly trade wind - supposition.

That could "mimic" - for lack of better word - the La Nina state, however... 

So, we end up with stronger easterly trade... causing cooling... but that is still inside the HC ...and then the hemisphere above latitudes doesn't behavior very La Nina and again... 

heads getting scratched in early February when there's an El Nino California wind bomb going off lol ... just sayn'

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I meant was you didn't necessarily endorse the idea that cool ENSO will be generally accentuated in a world of warmer waters.

well than bravo -  

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Because I have to:

 

Judah the snake oil salesman....

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Even though last winter was ridiculously warm, we still managed to finish above average. Not saying that's the outcome in every warm winter. For example, 2011-12 was shit show. Not taking anything on the long-range models at face value. But with the exceptional decline in Arctic sea ice since 2011, one would have to assume all that ocean heat being released back into atmosphere in the Fall would have an impact on the winter NAO/AO. 

Well, you are deep interior.

I was nowhere near average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The stronger/ing HC might also sustain stronger easterly trade wind - supposition.

That could "mimic" - for lack of better word - the La Nina state, however... 

So, we end up with stronger easterly trade... causing cooling... but that is still inside the HC ...and then the hemisphere above latitudes doesn't behavior very La Nina and again... 

heads getting scratched in early February when there's an El Nino California wind bomb going off lol ... just sayn'

I have always thought 1995-96 behaved more like a modest modoki el nino. Granted, 25 years ago, I know...

I would love if this one acted more like a traditional modest el nino lol

[cleetussnow]

I said it in another thread...I am still digging out from last years euro seasonal winter forecasts, so not sure how much weight to give them at this point.  For my purposes the look overall isn’t wretched for my winter quarters in the Adirondacks.  I worry more about big melts that kill the pack than storm shut outs months.  Nothing sucked worse than last January so I’ll take my chances.

[uncle W]

 

[dryslot]

JB should stick to poetry.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can’t get any worse lol so yes, agree. It’s all relative...we are in the midst of another bad stretch though. Doesn’t mean we can’t have a good winter but when we look back at these years they will feel like the 80s.

i mean its only been 2 seasons so far, i wouldnt call that a stretch until we have this one and the next one in the books

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i mean its only been 2 seasons so far, i wouldnt call that a stretch until we have this one and the next one in the books

It's actually amazing to think about that, at least for ORH, the past 2 seasons were the first consecutive below normal snowfall seasons since 1998-1999 and 1999-2000. I think a chunk of CT and RI/SE MA did have back to back subpar seasons in '06-'07 and '07-'08. Still, that is not a lot of bad stretches.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

JB should stick to poetry.

Lol That video shows how afraid Joe BUSTardi is of loosing the east coast weenie cult following he has. “Let’s mention that 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 are on my ‘analog’ list”.  He’s a clown

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Lol That video shows how afraid Joe BUSTardi is of loosing the east coast weenie cult following he has. “Let’s mention that 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 are on my ‘analog’ list”.  He’s a clown

I like how he joked about last years failure........lol

[PowderBeard]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol That video shows how afraid Joe BUSTardi is of loosing the east coast weenie cult following he has. “Let’s mention that 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 are on my ‘analog’ list”.  He’s a clown

Well correlations and associations = causation...right? 

I'm really curious about if, and how, mediation/moderation, HLM, and other regression models are used in forecasting. Would help in explaining variance. 

[BucksCO_PA]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

I said it in another thread...I am still digging out from last years euro seasonal winter forecasts, so not sure how much weight to give them at this point.  For my purposes the look overall isn’t wretched for my winter quarters in the Adirondacks.  I worry more about big melts that kill the pack than storm shut outs months.  Nothing sucked worse than last January so I’ll take my chances.

I've seen this thrown out there on several forums regarding last years euro winter forecast, am I missing something because this forecast from last OCT looks pretty solid. Now the weeklies are a completely different story as they've blown chucks over the past 2 winters.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2019-2020-ecmwf-forecast-october-fa/

 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

I've seen this thrown out there on several forums regarding last years euro winter forecast, am I missing something because this forecast from last OCT looks pretty solid. Now the weeklies are a completely different story as they've blown chucks over the past 2 winters.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2019-2020-ecmwf-forecast-october-fa/

 

 

 

I don’t remember what October showed...maybe that is correct. Here was November, a shorter lead time keep in mind when the skill improves

 

[raindancewx]

This is what I ended up with for snow nationally. The numbers are percentages of normal for July-June. My forecast is basically done, just waiting for a few things to come in this week.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i mean its only been 2 seasons so far, i wouldnt call that a stretch until we have this one and the next one in the books

Exactly. Long way to go to get out of this and with many long range guys worried about JF...expect another crapper with a couple good chances to cover up the stench. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... 

I dunno it seems to me pulling back to back subpar snow seasons at 1000’ is in of its self perhaps harder to do than the SE coastal plain. In terms of implication -

I can see 1998-‘99 as that was that super ENSO back whence they mattered -lol

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... 

I dunno it seems to me pulling back to back subpar snow seasons at 1000’ is in of its self perhaps harder to do than the SE coastal plain. In terms of implication -

I can see 1998-‘99 as that was that super ENSO back whence they mattered -lol

 

 

Yeah there is a lower variance over the interior which does give a smoother graph when plotting out seasonal snowfall. Still, even at ORH, going 20 years without back to back turds is pretty tough...below are instances of 2 or more consecutive below average snow seasons (I used <60” as the threshold...I consider something like 63” as “normal” for ORH since it’s within the middle 20 percentile):

2019-2020

2018-2019

1999-2000

1998-1999

1997-1998

1991-1992

1990-1991

1989-1990

1988-1989

1985-1986

1984-1985

1980-1981

1979-1980

1978-1979

1973-1974

1972-1973

1954-1955

1953-1954

1952-1953

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there is a lower variance over the interior which does give a smoother graph when plotting out seasonal snowfall. Still, even at ORH, going 20 years without back to back turds is pretty tough...below are instances of 2 or more consecutive below average snow seasons (I used <60” as the threshold...I consider something like 63” as “normal” for ORH since it’s within the middle 20 percentile):

2019-2020

2018-2019

1999-2000

1998-1999

1997-1998

1991-1992

1990-1991

1989-1990

1988-1989

1985-1986

1984-1985

1980-1981

1979-1980

1978-1979

1973-1974

1972-1973

1954-1955

1953-1954

1952-1953

 

Wait ... there were three years bbb in the early 1950s? 

...the suicide stretch my god

But on point that makes me wonder about the ambient PWAT/WV accessibility in the GW models - interesting. 
 

But I don’t know if it accounts for all that because that seems like a disproportionately large response by that one metric when GE its self is decimaling its way up ... could be luck playing in...

also - note the 1980’s ambrosia of couplets  

[ORH_wxman]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait ... there were three years bbb in the early 1950s? 

...the suicide stretch my god

But on point that makes me wonder about the ambient PWAT/WV accessibility in the GW models - interesting. 
 

But I don’t know if it accounts for all that because that seems like a disproportionately large response by that one metric when GE its self is decimaling its way up ... could be luck playing in...

also - note the 1980’s ambrosia of couplets  

Yeah the early ‘50s were bad. Still doesn’t beat the 4 consecutive dead-ratters between ‘88-‘89 and ‘91-‘92....not only was it 4 consecutive below normal winters and not only did it include a top 5 least snowiest winter, it is also the only time on record ORH has gone 3 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall....and it actually went 4 consecutive just to make sure it had the record secured. Lol

[CoastalWx]

Last year was the first true BN winter snowfall wise and first winter without a 10" storm since '11-'12. That is impressive. Technically the guy in Hingham had only 8" in The Feb '16 paster, but he's a little closer to the water .

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Last year was the first true BN winter snowfall wise and first winter without a 10" storm since '11-'12. That is impressive. Technically the guy in Hingham had only 8" in The Feb '16 paster, but he's a little closer to the water .

2018-2019 was the first winter since 2007-2008 that didn't have a double digit storm at ORH. They only got 9.6" in the 3/4/19 storm. Pretty impressive streak of 10 winters.

Of course last year they had 17" in the early December storm. They escaped 2011-2012 too because of the October storm.