Winter 2020-2021

[CoastalWx]

Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Totally agree with you about the temps and with snow there are so many moving parts and even if things line up, your forecast still may not even materialize lol. My constant reminder is winter 2011-2012 where we had a weak La Nina, e'rly QBO, -PDO, snow weenies were jumping around with pt's and most of us in eastern MA got near record low snow lol. 

I mean there is some skill, I'm not trying to insult that field.....but snow is what most care about and that metric is extremely difficult to predict.

[It's Always Sunny]

And another thing I have a hard time buying into are those seasonal monthly H5 anoms because that just depicts the average pattern so you could still get 1-2 good s/w's out of Canada that result in something measurable. 

[weathafella]

Let’s hope the euro seasonal is as good as last year.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America. 

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5ﾟC is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

[PhineasC]

33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5ﾟC is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

I am more worried about being dry. A month-long dry spell like September is pretty lame, although breaking it with 2-3 feet of snow would be OK. LOL

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am more worried about being dry. A month-long dry spell like September is pretty lame, although breaking it with 2-3 feet of snow would be OK. LOL

I agree. a classic la nina is stormy here in the lakes but I cant count on anything as the weather does what it wants.  In fact every fall it's the same thing, it's fun to look at forecasts and speculate but we know it's full of unknowns

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am more worried about being dry. A month-long dry spell like September is pretty lame, although breaking it with 2-3 feet of snow would be OK. LOL

We are usually ok until temps get like +4 to +5 or greater departures... then it’s just too warm even up north or a pattern of cutters.  But I do find our snowfall takes the largest hit anecdotally once departures sort of crest over that +4-5 mark.  It goes downhill fast after that.

But yeah dry periods are boring anyway you put it.  Even a rainy cutter that ends as a few inches of NW flow snow is at least interesting... but going 3 weeks in January dry is about as boring as it gets.  

[uncle W]

being dry now does not matter...being dry in winter can be a problem sometimes...

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5ﾟC is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We are usually ok until temps get like +4 to +5 or greater departures... then it’s just too warm even up north or a pattern of cutters.  But I do find our snowfall takes the largest hit anecdotally once departures sort of crest over that +4-5 mark.  It goes downhill fast after that.

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up.  A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north.  In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite.  Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much.  PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north.  Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway.  The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

[PhineasC]

Just anecdotal, but it feels like seasonal forecasting accuracy has somehow gotten worse over the years. I swear the seasonal forecasts I saw back in the 2000s and early 2010s were at least as good as a coin flip. Now they seem like they are not only always wrong, but way, way wrong. Are more people relying too much on seasonal models with essentially zero skill and ignoring contrary signs or not hedging and smoothing the forecast a little?

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up.  A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north.  In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite.  Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much.  PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north.  Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway.  The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

+1- +2 in Jan/Feb means very little up here actually as far as wintry weather is concerned, Vodka cold is typically dry.

[weathafella]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just anecdotal, but it feels like seasonal forecasting accuracy has somehow gotten worse over the years. I swear the seasonal forecasts I saw back in the 2000s and early 2010s were at least as good as a coin flip. Now they seem like they are not only always wrong, but way, way wrong. Are more people relying too much on seasonal models with essentially zero skill and ignoring contrary signs or not hedging and smoothing the forecast a little?

I wonder if the Tip theory is the whole issue?   Basically calling enso based on SSTAs which may be in part overall warming induced making El Niño less predictable.   Conversely, perhaps on that basis the current nina is stronger than we think.   But the big problem is the sample size is so small vs real science (eg:  population studies in medical research could have an n of 30,000 vs the long range forecasting which is under 50 making it not really scientifically valid imho.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 hours ago, weathafella said:

Let’s hope the euro seasonal is as good as last year.

Since it’s 2020 and everything blows... it’ll nail it

[Go Kart Mozart]

Can we lock in this general pattern for the winter?

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

I was going to mention that as well, so I’m glad folks brought it up.  A temperature map with those warm colors on it doesn’t really indicate an issue – especially as one goes further north.  In fact, in the heart of winter up here, I’d typically rather see it a bit on the warm side vs. the opposite.  Even if there’s no correlation with increased precipitation, at least in means we’re not freezing our azzes off quite as much.  PF nicely pointed out where the actual departures start to matter in the north.  Of course, the whole thing is moot anyway.  The only real utility in these long-range forecasts is for refinement on the development end of the methodologies for eventual use down the road (or I guess something to keep weather weenies occupied); there isn’t any practical forecast utility at this point.

The NDJFMA period averaged 2.3° warmer here in 2019-20 than in 2018-19, yet we saw over a foot more snowfall in 2019-20. That's just the most recent example, and I'm 42N. Not sure how far south these things realistically happen but regardless people need to be very careful to not just jump to a quick conclusion when they see a bunch of orange or red on a map, at least before looking at the grid lol

[OSUmetstud]

Seasonal models look fairly consistent with Nina climo. Couple things to watch for is how much ridging we can get into AK/Bering and if we can pop some sort of -NAO or at least some strong 50/50 confluence. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

December verbatim wouldn't be too bad. Jan and Feb look ugly.

 

20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

I don't think that is far fetched.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

I wonder if the Tip theory is the whole issue?   Basically calling enso based on SSTAs which may be in part overall warming induced making El Niño less predictable.   Conversely, perhaps on that basis the current nina is stronger than we think.   But the big problem is the sample size is so small vs real science (eg:  population studies in medical research could have an n of 30,000 vs the long range forecasting which is under 50 making it not really scientifically valid imho.

I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around.

I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, dryslot said:

+1- +2 in Jan/Feb means very little up here actually as far as wintry weather is concerned, Vodka cold is typically dry.

Yea, modest warm anomalies aren't too problematic until you get south of NYC...but a furnace blows for everyone to varying degrees.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 If you want to talk verbatim, remember plus 1 to 1.5ﾟC is the departure of +1.8 to +2.7°F.  That's nothing for northern areas.

Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.

I feel as though there has been a pretty consistent consensus.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Expect the same. It’s the 80s reruns. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around.

I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.

It might be compromised to a point, but right now based on easterlies and forcing...it is exerting itself currently. 

[powderfreak]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Just anecdotal, but it feels like seasonal forecasting accuracy has somehow gotten worse over the years. I swear the seasonal forecasts I saw back in the 2000s and early 2010s were at least as good as a coin flip. Now they seem like they are not only always wrong, but way, way wrong. Are more people relying too much on seasonal models with essentially zero skill and ignoring contrary signs or not hedging and smoothing the forecast a little?

I think it's a lot of increased "noise."  It would be interesting to study one specific meteorologist or one specific outlet's long range forecasts for the last 20 years to see if there's anything there... but as a group making long range forecasts it has exploded since the 2000s with social media.  Maybe if we just looked at only HM or Stormchaserchuck for the last 20 years we'd see it's probably fairly equal, but given that explosion in sources for long range seasonal information, I bet that plays a part in it.  Same with the media... even just back in the first half of the 2000s you'd just watch your evening NBC/CBS/ABC outlet at 6pm to see the "news."  Now it comes at you from all sides and methods, some true some nefarious.  I think the same has happened to "meteorology" to an extent.

More data does not make it better as a whole... like the King Euro when run twice a day had this mythic thing about it.  Now run it 4 times a day and it seems no different than the GFS and NAM, lol.  Run it all the time like the HRRR and it's like what are we doing here, it changes every hour?  It would be interesting to have a model run once daily and see what the "perception" is on it's accuracy, not its actual accuracy but I bet people will have a perception that it's "more stable" than the others.  Because you only see it once and not 4 times a day, ha!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It might be compromised to a point, but right now based on easterlies and forcing...it is exerting itself currently. 

Oh,  I agree. This la nina is coupled.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Expect the same. It’s the 80s reruns. 

I feel pretty good about this season not being as bad as last year.

[ORH_wxman]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.

2012-2013 was another example.

[CoastalWx]

We take '12-'13.

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.

 2007-08 averaged exactly normal here temperature wise but is the 5th snowiest Winter on record. The Winter featured some huge rollercoasters including watching a foot of snow disappear in a day a few days before Christmas and a warm spell in January that gave us just about as warm a January day as we can ever get (wasn't officially the warmest, but it was up there). Patterns that are so volatile like that seem to keep feeding storms.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.

Its a great example though, We will see snow more in the 25-32°F range then lower i know here having some marine influence being on the coastal plain.