Winter 2020-2021

[Snowstorms]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty hard to find a +QBO/+PDO winter in a La Nina....but 2016-2017 is basically the only one. You could maybe include 1985-1986 but that wasn't really a La Nina. It was a negative-neutral that fell just short of weak Nina.

The PDO could still go solidly negative....it can change quickly. Though we're clearly not in a longer term deep -PDO like we were in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

2016-17 came off a very strong Nino and was during +PDO that started in 2014. I would assume even just based off that, it's not an ideal analogue for this year. 

I wonder if we see a multi-year Nina event this year and would it be enough to move us back into a longer term deep -PDO like the late 2000s. Last multi-year Nina event was 1998-2001 and prior to that 1973-1976. 

[stadiumwave]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and Sept might still be neg too...but the last week or two has def trended strongly toward positive....I had posted the SSTA map yesterday or the day before. We'll see if it reverses again...I'd expect it to, but no guarantees.

 

 

Current SST anomalies...certainly +PDO.

 

Last 15 days...increasing +PDO.

 

Although I 100% agree with your statement hat it can quickly change & especially during fall seasons. So, thinking winter by looking at PDO in fall "can" certainly backfire. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The PDO - as I read back in the 1990s ... - is often prone to ephemeral looks because of sea-surface wind stressing.

Which makes sense, considering the PDO's domain space is pretty much overridden by the wildest, windiest tropospheric realm on the planet, ... pushing water plumes around and upwelling this and loading warm into shallows that. It's like one of those thumb-slide puzzles. 

Such that given to how deep the surface layering is (warm)(cool), either can be disintegrated instra seasonal and if significant enough, on scales of mere weeks at that.  

That lends to me questioning the usefulness of assessing the PDO in any given July through early October time frame, if one is to assess how it may look/be somehow correlative in ensuing winter.  I wonder if anyone has ever took the scalar PDO of August and compared it January's ?  Like -1 August = ? January in the "tendencies" - I bet the correlation is more noisy than we think... while biases the decadal signal... Such that if we are in the positive(negative) modes ... Jan tends to reflect the decadal signal, and August's throw out the variability.

Thing is... momentum left over from spring may be mashed up with solar modulated summers, at a time of the year when/where said stressing is not as mechanical adding to the deception ... and that can falsely reduce(elevate) negative(positive) PDO's which ... btw, the "D" in P - D - O stands for "Decadal" for a reason... It doesn't mean "Dailies"   ... such that a Aleutian bomb may neg the shit out of the domain up there ...but not really consistent with the longer term's vastly more correlatable decadal lags.  Such that there's a couple faux negatives in Sept... a bomb in mid October that upwells, and everyone forecast a winter -PDO correlation that doesn't mean anything because the circuitry is all positive by Thanks Giving and stays that way until March.

Just attempting to some healthy skepticism here - 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The PDO - as I read back in the 1990s ... - is often prone to ephemeral looks because of sea-surface wind stressing.

Which makes sense, considering the PDO's domain space is pretty much overridden by the wildest, windiest tropospheric realm on the planet, ... pushing water plumes around and upwelling this and loading warm into shallows that. It's like one of those thumb-slide puzzles. 

Such that given to how deep the surface layering is (warm)(cool), either can be disintegrated instra seasonal and if significant enough, on scales of mere weeks at that.  

That lends to me questioning the usefulness of assessing the PDO in any given July through early October time frame, if one is to assess how it may look/be somehow correlative in ensuing winter.  I wonder if anyone has ever took the scalar PDO of August and compared it January's ?  Like -1 August = ? January in the "tendencies" - I bet the correlation is more noisy than we think... while biases the decadal signal... Such that if we are in the positive(negative) modes ... Jan tends to reflect the decadal signal, and August's throw out the variability.

Thing is... momentum left over from spring may be mashed up with solar modulated summers, at a time of the year when/where said stressing is not as mechanical adding to the deception ... and that can falsely reduce(elevate) negative(positive) PDO's which ... btw, the "D" in P - D - O stands for "Decadal" for a reason... It doesn't mean "Dailies"   ... such that a Aleutian bomb may neg the shit out of the domain up there ...but not really consistent with the longer term's vastly more correlatable decadal lags.  Such that there's a couple faux negatives in Sept... a bomb in mid October that upwells, and everyone forecast a winter -PDO correlation that doesn't mean anything because the circuitry is all positive by Thanks Giving and stays that way until March.

Just attempting to some healthy skepticism here - 

I agree it seems to have a larger effect on a multi-year scale rather than a shorter time frame. It's likely more one of those things where if we get it strongly positive or strongly negative leading into a month, it can help sustain or inhibit a pattern all else equal.....i.e., it isn't a dominant driver but can act as a compliment.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree it seems to have a larger effect on a multi-year scale rather than a shorter time frame. It's likely more one of those things where if we get it strongly positive or strongly negative leading into a month, it can help sustain or inhibit a pattern all else equal.....i.e., it isn't a dominant driver but can act as a compliment.

Yeah I think this is the intellectual/ course of least regret in using the PDO metric frankly ... and by the way, check this but I think the multi-decadal curve is arguing -PDO/-AMO  through 2030 .. So if it is positive - I have two thoughts on that... 

The first is, it may be a lie... Why? Because we are also now toting along this multi-decade warm basin signal. 

I think if you look at the last 200 some- months worth of anomalies products at NASA... 78% of the Basin has been in a positive anomaly 78% of the months or something ... ( making that up but it's been warm biased).  *AND* that is now overlapping the -PDO according to the multi-decadal oscillatory curve that was constructed based upon reanalysis from 200 years ago .. that become more empirical mid century onwards.. Blah blah.. .point is - and I'm sorry if this chaps asses and/or rolls eyes but the fact of the matter is - global warming is f'ing this whole conversation up before we even have it.. Jesus Christ. 

But, suppose for a moment GW doesn't matter ( yeah right - ) ... the PDO/AMO move together, and both move with a very high correlation to the solar cycle.  So it is an interesting diametric signal there... we have a multi-decade in situ warm anomaly - regardless of GW or not ...it's there - "fighting" the -PDO ...which by the way, should be a whopper given to the superposition theory and the deep solar min ... 

I keep coming back the same thing .. the primary force in the scaling of equations is the HC expansion and the polar field/Ferrel Cell interface velocity in the gradient saturation as overwhelming things. That's putting the previous modes that were better correlations more on the back burner - note, that is not saying they don't influence.  Seems there is a tendency to read shit and think it's absolute stink and that's not the point here - but, we live on a dynamical world - and dynamics actually translates directly to "change" as per definition... Sometimes the turds of change just have to be seen or we risk drinking the cool-aide

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I think this is the intellectual/ course of least regret in using the PDO metric frankly ... and by the way, check this but I think the multi-decadal curve is arguing -PDO/-AMO  through 2030 .. So if it is positive - I have two thoughts on that... 

The first is, it may be a lie... Why? Because we are also now toting along this multi-decade warm basin signal. 

I think if you look at the last 200 some- months worth of anomalies products at NASA... 78% of the Basin has been in a positive anomaly 78% of the months or something ... ( making that up but it's been warm biased).  *AND* that is now overlapping the -PDO according to the multi-decadal oscillatory curve that was constructed based upon reanalysis from 200 years ago .. that become more empirical mid century onwards.. Blah blah.. .point is - and I'm sorry if this chaps asses and/or rolls eyes but the fact of the matter is - global warming is f'ing this whole conversation up before we even have it.. Jesus Christ. 

But, suppose for a moment GW doesn't matter ( yeah right - ) ... the PDO/AMO move together, and both move with a very high correlation to the solar cycle.  So it is an interesting diametric signal there... we have a multi-decade in situ warm anomaly - regardless of GW or not ...it's there - "fighting" the -PDO ...which by the way, should be a whopper given to the superposition theory and the deep solar min ... 

I keep coming back the same thing .. the primary force in the scaling of equations is the HC expansion and the polar field/Ferrel Cell interface velocity in the gradient saturation as overwhelming things. That's putting the previous modes that were better correlations more on the back burner - note, that is not saying they don't influence.  Seems there is a tendency to read shit and think it's absolute stink and that's not the point here - but, we live on a dynamical world - and dynamics actually translates directly to "change" a definition... Sometimes the turds of change just have to be seen or we risk drinking the cool-aide

I do think the HC/FC gradient is being significantly enhanced at our latitudes by the +AO of the past 5-6 seasons or so after we had a pretty good run of strongly -AO seasons (sans '11-'12) in the previous 5 years. So my guess is some of the gradient issues relax during our next bout of -AO patterns. Of course, we also aren't entirely sure how much the HC expansion or climate change affects the AO itself. We have seen competing theories in the literature.

Here's another version of the map from yesterday. Instead of comparing the last 5-6season to 2000-2014, I compared it to only 2009-2014...the AO region sticks out even more.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do think the HC/FC gradient is being significantly enhanced at our latitudes by the +AO of the past 5-6 seasons or so after we had a pretty good run of strongly -AO seasons (sans '11-'12) in the previous 5 years. So my guess is some of the gradient issues relax during our next bout of -AO patterns. Of course, we also aren't entirely sure how much the HC expansion or climate change affects the AO itself. We have seen competing theories in the literature.

Here's another version of the map from yesterday. Instead of comparing the last 5-6season to 2000-2014, I compared it to only 2009-2014...the AO region sticks out even more.

 

 

Yeah ... separating the -AO from the +AO ... as being rooted in what cause is a whole 'nother popsicle headache - good luck! 

But I also like where you are going there, because a -AO base-line tussling with HC would quite reasonably cause a different "synergistic" hemisphere ...having those opposing aspects in tandem.   

I don't know how to visualize that resolution.  

The +AO is easy ...  It's a contraction N of the westerlies/Polar Jet as we know... and that's sort of like giving the HC "carte blanche" - you know?  So we wash in bathing progressivity and sheared out busted R-waves that can't situate ...and you know the drill...   Anyone want to argue that's NOT what we've eaten the last half-ten ?   If so, never log in again - 

But jokes aside, the HC isn't going anywhere - most likely... Most papers, sciences and scholars are leaning heavily toward it's anchoring in GW ... so -

But... the +AO affliction is making the GW seem like whole numbers instead of decimals - which it still is.   When they flash headlines designed to jolt awareness ( ahem...) that X month was the warmest ever ...they mean it was .01 warmer than the last 'oh-my-god-we're-all-gonna-die' month ...  I mean it's not good that we are adding decimals ...no.. But, it's like Venus comes tomorrow. ...or even in 50 years... although ... things could be sensibly different by then if the "acceleration" shit continues ...   Logarithmic change is a little harry out to 5 decades... 

Anyway, I'm not really sure about the +AO longevity ...it doens't fit the solar min curve...Last year was not right ... and it's persistence was also ... doubling down on that 'not righteousness' ha-ha.  Seriously... I don't blame the QBO when the QBO was weak and there are plenty of -AO at similar QBO in the past... so, ... the MJO's were also biased on 3-6 phases, which is consistent with the +AO correlation - it worries me that the whole hemisphere was butt-fing winter ...from the Eq to the Pol and this is unrelenting... I am not sure that HC ... I don't see how - but it does seem to be a constructive interference that is making the HC very demonstrative ... making huge mid lat wind budgets -

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Current SST anomalies...certainly +PDO.

 

Last 15 days...increasing +PDO.

 

Although I 100% agree with your statement hat it can quickly change & especially during fall seasons. So, thinking winter by looking at PDO in fall "can" certainly backfire. 

I wish I still had the link, but there was a very extensive article which went into depth on the ENSO/PDO winter relationship. It argued that ENSO forces the PDO, which is why, the overwhelming majority of the time you have +PDO with a Niño and -PDO with a Niña for winter. I think +PDO/Niña winters were found to be even rarer than -PDO/Nino winters in the study.. Both combos are very rare

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do think the HC/FC gradient is being significantly enhanced at our latitudes by the +AO of the past 5-6 seasons or so after we had a pretty good run of strongly -AO seasons (sans '11-'12) in the previous 5 years. So my guess is some of the gradient issues relax during our next bout of -AO patterns. Of course, we also aren't entirely sure how much the HC expansion or climate change affects the AO itself. We have seen competing theories in the literature.

Here's another version of the map from yesterday. Instead of comparing the last 5-6season to 2000-2014, I compared it to only 2009-2014...the AO region sticks out even more.

 

 

The increasing difference/gap between the yinging and the yanging. 

Pretty alarming even if the sample size is relatively small.

[raindancewx]

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep		DJF 3.4	DJFp 3.4
1966	-21.90	-17.14	-11.07	-2.33	2.16	5.42	7.47	7.63	9.23		26.18	27.78
2010	-16.02	-16.98	-19.68	-23.57	-26.28	-25.05	-9.84	1.45	6.58		25.21	28.14
2016	9.34	6.77	3.16	0.64	2.37	3.86	6.25	10.07	10.48		26.30	29.13
2016	9.34	6.77	3.16	0.64	2.37	3.86	6.25	10.07	10.48		26.30	29.13
Blend	-4.81	-5.15	-6.11	-6.16	-4.85	-2.98	2.53	7.31	9.19		26.00	28.54
2020	-2.51	-3.20	-4.36	-5.03	-4.86	-2.78	0.34	4.78	7.95
Trend		down	down	down	up	up	up	up	up

 

That's the simplest good QBO match I can come up with using the September data, although the drop off in Nino 3.4 won't be ~2.5C. Probably more like 1.8C. If the QBO trend matters, 2008 may be peaking as a similar year now as the QBO dipped from September to November. I think the raw value for 2020 could be ~15 in November as it peaks or continues to rise, while 2008 fell off to 9 or so from a June/July peak before a second winter peak. I'd imagine the current QBO peak will not be a double peak like that. Throwing in 1961 would keep the trends/match pretty strong but make the y/y more comparable to this year. Either way, still kind of a cold NW / warm East & South look nationally.

Do want to see the monthly SST data for September. I think its pretty close to 2007 and 1995 still. The MJO lingering in phase five around 10/1 in a low solar La Nina is something I take as a good sign for what I expect in winter as it happened in 2007, 2011, and 2016 to some extent. The blend of those years looks a lot like what I have, and gets you a ~25.5C La Nina winter, following a 27.2C El Nino the prior year (27.1 in 2019-20). Similar ACE (104 v. current 105), low sea ice, with a -PDO, but not out control. I do think the -PDO looks less likely to be severely negative than a few weeks ago, but probably still negative. But I lean more toward 0.0 to -1.0 for Nov-Apr on the Nate Mantua method than the -0.5 to -1.5 I was expecting before. If the entire North Pacific is cold or warm, you can still have a + or - PDO if the relational setup between the NE & NW are correct, so I lean toward a "warm" version of the -PDO for Nov-Apr.

Also: I'm not optimistic for the NE overall, I think it will be warm again, but I actually do think it's a pretty decent snow setup for New England. I'm not talking 80 inches of snow for Boston, but a general +0% to +30% for snow. I'd have to look, but I think NYC was near average, Boston was above, and south of NYC was pretty crap in the blend I have. The low solar La Ninas are pretty good for Boston for snow in the past 90 years: 1933, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1984, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017. Most of the years are above average (9/14) and no true duds. Even without 1995-96, the average is 46 inches, so the 50 inches overall isn't super inflated.

1933: 63" 1942: 46" 1954: 25" 1964: 50"

1973: 37" 1974: 28" 1975: 47" 1984: 27"

1995: 108" 2005: 40" 2007: 51" 2010: 81"

2016: 48" 2017: 60"

[dmillz25]

58 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep		DJF 3.4	DJFp 3.4
1966	-21.90	-17.14	-11.07	-2.33	2.16	5.42	7.47	7.63	9.23		26.18	27.78
2010	-16.02	-16.98	-19.68	-23.57	-26.28	-25.05	-9.84	1.45	6.58		25.21	28.14
2016	9.34	6.77	3.16	0.64	2.37	3.86	6.25	10.07	10.48		26.30	29.13
2016	9.34	6.77	3.16	0.64	2.37	3.86	6.25	10.07	10.48		26.30	29.13
Blend	-4.81	-5.15	-6.11	-6.16	-4.85	-2.98	2.53	7.31	9.19		26.00	28.54
2020	-2.51	-3.20	-4.36	-5.03	-4.86	-2.78	0.34	4.78	7.95
Trend		down	down	down	up	up	up	up	up

 

That's the simplest good QBO match I can come up with using the September data, although the drop off in Nino 3.4 won't be ~2.5C. Probably more like 1.8C. If the QBO trend matters, 2008 may be peaking as a similar year now as the QBO dipped from September to November. I think the raw value for 2020 could be ~15 in November as it peaks or continues to rise, while 2008 fell off to 9 or so from a June/July peak before a second winter peak. I'd imagine the current QBO peak will not be a double peak like that. Throwing in 1961 would keep the trends/match pretty strong but make the y/y more comparable to this year. Either way, still kind of a cold NW / warm East & South look nationally.

Do want to see the monthly SST data for September. I think its pretty close to 2007 and 1995 still. The MJO lingering in phase five around 10/1 in a low solar La Nina is something I take as a good sign for what I expect in winter as it happened in 2007, 2011, and 2016 to some extent. The blend of those years looks a lot like what I have, and gets you a ~25.5C La Nina winter, following a 27.2C El Nino the prior year (27.1 in 2019-20). Similar ACE (104 v. current 105), low sea ice, with a -PDO, but not out control. I do think the -PDO looks less likely to be severely negative than a few weeks ago, but probably still negative. But I lean more toward 0.0 to -1.0 for Nov-Apr on the Nate Mantua method than the -0.5 to -1.5 I was expecting before. If the entire North Pacific is cold or warm, you can still have a + or - PDO if the relational setup between the NE & NW are correct, so I lean toward a "warm" version of the -PDO for Nov-Apr.

Also: I'm not optimistic for the NE overall, I think it will be warm again, but I actually do think it's a pretty decent snow setup for New England. I'm not talking 80 inches of snow for Boston, but a general +0% to +30% for snow. I'd have to look, but I think NYC was near average, Boston was above, and south of NYC was pretty crap in the blend I have. The low solar La Ninas are pretty good for Boston for snow in the past 90 years: 1933, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1984, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, 2017. Most of the years are above average (9/14) and no true duds. Even without 1995-96, the average is 46 inches, so the 50 inches overall isn't super inflated.

1933: 63" 1942: 46" 1954: 25" 1964: 50"

1973: 37" 1974: 28" 1975: 47" 1984: 27"

1995: 108" 2005: 40" 2007: 51" 2010: 81"

2016: 48" 2017: 60"

I’ll take near average (29”) here after the debacle of last season

[moneypitmike]

On 9/28/2020 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a fun one to draw up. I always say that I need to resume doing those but it’s hard these days with kids, lol. One of these years I definitely will though...unless some other entity beats me to the punch with detail and QC equal to or superior to what I set as my minimum standards. 

Anyways, here’s the 2007-2008 map again:

Oh, GON......

I might find myself looking for excuses to get to Pit2 this winter.

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Don’t know if you saw the update yet but the QBO went up to +7.95 for September.... 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Oh, GON......

I might find myself looking for excuses to get to Pit2 this winter.

Just saw this from Henry H

 

On 9/28/2020 at 10:42 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Just give me a 10 -11 like winter. Shed roof with 42 inches, 5 per hour storm, 11 inches in 2 .5 hrs. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Warm winter for where? The east? Of course these weenie mets don't believe that. When do they ever?

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Warm winter for where? The east? Of course these weenie mets don't believe that. When do they ever?

Henry is literally the absolute worst I’ve ever seen, hands down. Whatever he predicts, the opposite is guaranteed to happen. Last winter, he kept predicting extreme cold and snow for the east coast from November until April when he finally gave up. That’s no exaggeration either, he wouldn’t give up, he was getting roasted on Twitter. Dude seemed totally delusional

[The 4 Seasons]

On 9/28/2020 at 7:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a fun one to draw up. I always say that I need to resume doing those but it’s hard these days with kids, lol. One of these years I definitely will though...unless some other entity beats me to the punch with detail and QC equal to or superior to what I set as my minimum standards. 

Anyways, here’s the 2007-2008 map again:

Can you provide a link to more of these or share all the ones you made some how? id love to see them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/3/2020 at 8:44 AM, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Don’t know if you saw the update yet but the QBO went up to +7.95 for September.... 

Yea, not much really to be gleaned from that...nothing unexpected.

[uncle W]

some QBO numbers...

Sept year...............after.....

2020.....+795.....rising???

2019.....+825.....falling slowly...weak el nino...

2010.....+658.....rising then steady thru the winter at +10...

2008...+1160.....steady around +10 throughout...

1999....+1119.....steady then falling slowing thru the winter to around +5...

1995.....+698.....falling to -10 by March...

1985....+1172.....steady with a minor dip to+9 at winters start...

1975....+1095.....steady throughout...

1971......+895.....steady throughout...

1966.....+923.....rising then steady at around + 12 to +10...

1959....+1009.....steady then falling during the winter to near zero in March...

1955......+816.....steady then falling to negatives by January...

[stadiumwave]

FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America. 

[stadiumwave]

The culprit at this point is that most of the seasonal models keep indicating a very strong +AO/+NAO/+EPO & a -PNA.  So if the models are wrong at this point just a little it will lead to a big bust. If they are correct it's going to mean a long and depressing Winter for Winter weather lovers.

Has the look of a very strong stratosphere ploar vortex.  I'll be honest this would surprise me. It seems that most stratosphere experts believe that the record strong +IOD last winter was the lead culprit. IOD is negative for now & I dunno.

[CoastalWx]

I'd like to see the H5 look. 

[stadiumwave]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see the H5 look. 

Trust me...you don't want to see...lol. There are no positives to glean.

DEC...has a -NAO & might possibly squeeze a good storm or slop...if there is a temporary improvement out west not discernable in the means.

 

JAN

 

 

FEB

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

FWIW...European Seasonal model updated & its a complete blowtorch for the entire CONUS for the entire winter. Alaska & Grrenland is the only winter in all of N. America. 

I don't really have a problem with this in the DJF ... particularly the latter two months of that range.  

I think as the 'base-line' eddy gets established in the winter hemisphere, it will probably be at more times than not ...seemingly unrelentingly in compressed look that emerges by virtue of the polar winter heights reaching a nadir between Jan 15 and Feb 10 or so... In that time range, we may have seasonal heights over the area, but because the compression is there, the winds are hauling seriously ablading cold incursions and or limiting their impact on regions to briefer times ...  

There is a way out of this though...  

2015 February -

Firstly, those seasonal products by the Euro are not that good - just keeping that in mind.  

Secondly, should the N-stream just become so overwhelming, we could end up in one of the -20 C 850 at all time air masses...with powdering coastals faking huge seasonal snow totals.. If there is anywhere in N/A where that would likely to occur, it is in the eastern Lakes-OV-NE band, where the PNAP favors a persistently anchored trough.  It does pull me to wonder at times if we can't sustain winter without that extreme - perhaps as an insidious "already" climate threshold cross that we're less collectively aware...  The HC is being documented and observed, in the private sector and in scholar and scientific formal arenas alike - and given the root causality...climate change ... theoretically that does not lend one to think it is going anywhere, either.  

So that scaffolds the vision of the futre around that flow being consummately impeded from the S by heights that are not receding - and we're only talking about about 6 dm ... But that's all we need in the integral from 30 N to 70 N to trigger the velocity surplus...which by wave mechanics than starts jostling the R-wave orientations, as well, creates interesting indivudal temporal-spatial scaled event morphologies.  Like 938 mb extratropical lows moving passed a region that thinks a Pratt&Whittney proving ground was exhausting through their region with a 6 hour 100 mph sideways show .... ( hyperbole but it was SOMEthing ludicrous!) ... weird shit. 

Anyway, non-sustaining cold before warm reloads to 45 N isn't a bad base-line in a ballooning HC...

That all said, prior to the onset of that circumstance...these book end months ... mid Octo to Dec 1 and ...then again through April 15 ...perhaps May 1, etc... those times the compression eases and continent passes back through a tendency period for -EPOs .... It's sort of causing a recurrent 'split' in winter - 

It's not all the time and or absolute, either... Just "tendency" - so...  Even though that seasonal product probably verifies well by dumb luck ...I could kind of see/tell/almost predict where that luck comes from. 

[CoastalWx]

December verbatim wouldn't be too bad. Jan and Feb look ugly.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

December verbatim wouldn't be too bad. Jan and Feb look ugly.

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

[It's Always Sunny]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.

[JB_Wchstr]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Dec doesn't really have a pig either...it's a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is actually pretty good for New England. Rest of the winter is canceled on that though, lol.

Well, lately when the LR looks good it turns out s***astic, so here’s hoping. 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.

No offense to those who try to spend a lot of time and money on the seasonal stuff, but unless it's a strong ENSO signal, there is a lot of factors that account for temps...nevermind that snowfall is even more difficult to predict. A lot of voodoo. 

[It's Always Sunny]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No offense to those who try to spend a lot of time and money on the seasonal stuff, but unless it's a strong ENSO signal, there is a lot of factors that account for temps...nevermind that snowfall is even more difficult to predict. A lot of voodoo. 

Totally agree with you about the temps and with snow there are so many moving parts and even if things line up, your forecast still may not even materialize lol. My constant reminder is winter 2011-2012 where we had a weak La Nina, e'rly QBO, -PDO, snow weenies were jumping around with pt's and most of us in eastern MA got near record low snow lol.