40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Gibbsfreeenergy said: I give very little importance to QBO Kevs sexuality for sure is more ambiguous and curious than he portrays Yea....I wonder, though because the most prolific gradient seasons, 2007 and 1970 had very similar drastically negative QBOs. Certainly not a deal breaker, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....I wonder, though because the most prolific gradient seasons, 2007 and 1970 had very similar drastically negative QBOs. Certainly not a deal breaker, though. 1949-50 was a strong Nina gradient winter. However, QBO was negative that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Just now, Snowstorms said: 1949-50 was a strong Nina gradient winter. However, QBO was negative that winter. Right....but not to the tune of 140" in central NH, and 45" in Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 20 hours ago, tamarack said: In my NNJ days we had only one measurable October event, 0.7" on the 26th in 1962. High at my place was a cool 34° and football practice was quite chilly, especially as Fridays were only walk-throughs, not much to help stay warm. (Ironically, exactly one year later was my first game playing all the offensive and defensive snaps, in mid-80s heat - sweated off about 15 lb but that was one of only 2 wins for us that year.) The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE. Good for NNE from Jan. 14 on. Until then met winter temps were running about +8 here and the 11"of snow was exactly 1/3 of the average thru 1/13. The rest of that winter (thru mid April) brought another 84" snow with temps significantly BN. Most schizophrenic winter of my experience. 2011, I had 4.25" of snow in October and lived within walking distance of Rutgers. The rest of the season we got little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have some gradient Tip just fainted from Hadley cell nightmares. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tip just fainted from Hadley cell nightmares. Ha ... I wonder how much that is being pulled/weighted by the last 10 of that 30 years... Basically, wouldn't mind seeing that in 5 year intervals to gather an idea on trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tip just fainted from Hadley cell nightmares. Not nightmares....they would be erotic in nature..perhaps even some nocturnal saturation of the column- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ... I wonder how much that is being pulled/weighted by the last 10 of that 30 years... Basically, wouldn't mind seeing that in 5 year intervals to gather an idea on trend. Here's the last 5 years compared to the previous 15....aside from any contribution by Hadley cell expansion, it's clear we're in a phase of much lower heights over the AO region. As we both know, that will enhance the height rises over the mid latitudes. Esp over Eastern North America and Europe.....exactly where we see the largest positive anomalies on that comparison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not nightmares....they would be erotic in nature..perhaps even some nocturnal saturation of the column- Forgive me if I am wrong as I'm still learning about the Hadley Cell Circulation and Global Angular Momentum on my own, but doesn't a typical La Nina induce the expansion of the Hadley Cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 That is a great graphic. Very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a great graphic. Very telling. Here's 2000-2001 to 2014-2015 minus the previous 15 years.....we definitely had a much more favorable arctic in those years versus the late 1980s and 1990s on the whole. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 On 9/29/2020 at 11:56 AM, tamarack said: Absolutely. 3 March storms, 56, 58, 60. 3 big 60-61 storms, DJF. Jan 64 cold storm, thundersnow on 12/24/66 (and that whole winter), Mayor Lindsey storm 2/69. Great stuff! The March 1960 while not the most intense to me is near the top. Forecast of 1-2 yielded to one of the great 20th century events! Waiting for the December 1960 storm to move in and turning on the tv and seeing DC getting buried....we knew it was coming and it sure did! JFK inaugural storm...cold and quick. February 1961 some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen followed by a huge unfortunate pattern change. January 64 I remember as really cold also during it. 12/24/66-perfect timing event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's 2000-2001 to 2014-2015 minus the previous 15 years.....we definitely had a much more favorable arctic in those years versus the late 1980s and 1990s on the whole. Bring it back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: Bring it back! MWGA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: The March 1960 while not the most intense to me is near the top. Forecast of 1-2 yielded to one of the great 20th century events! Waiting for the December 1960 storm to move in and turning on the tv and seeing DC getting buried....we knew it was coming and it sure did! JFK inaugural storm...cold and quick. February 1961 some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen followed by a huge unfortunate pattern change. January 64 I remember as really cold also during it. 12/24/66-perfect timing event! March 1960 was 18" cold powder, and 8" was on the ground as we climbed aboard the buses for the midday release. That Dec we watched the Giants and "Washington Football Team" trying to play with 8-10" on the ground/tarps. (Field had 6 full width by 20 yard tarps, crew spent 45 minutes almost getting one moved off and the coaches said forget it.) It was well after dark when the real stuff reached NNJ but slogging thru it next day - opener of NJ firearms deer season - was an adventure. My friend and I slogged, my dad found a nice oak to lean against and dropped a little buck in its tracks, waited for us to return and handed me the knife. Eight years later when I finally shot a deer, no one in sight, I was glad for the lesson. The Jan/Feb storms were separated by more than two weeks of temps well below freezing - 16 consecutive days for NYC, longest such run on record - and depths around our place probably reached 45" as places within 15 miles recorded pack of 50"+, tallest in NJ records by nearly a foot. By late Feb it was all gone. 12/24/66 I was heading home from hunting (squirrels/partridge) in SN+ when I heard a loud noise - sonic boom? Couldn't be thunder, could it? In a snowstorm? Next boom made it clear, my 1st thundersnow and I've experienced only 2 since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 5 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Forgive me if I am wrong as I'm still learning about the Hadley Cell Circulation and Global Angular Momentum on my own, but doesn't a typical La Nina induce the expansion of the Hadley Cell? Yep, mainly in low-mid troposphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 4 hours ago, weathafella said: The March 1960 while not the most intense to me is near the top. Forecast of 1-2 yielded to one of the great 20th century events! Waiting for the December 1960 storm to move in and turning on the tv and seeing DC getting buried....we knew it was coming and it sure did! JFK inaugural storm...cold and quick. February 1961 some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen followed by a huge unfortunate pattern change. January 64 I remember as really cold also during it. 12/24/66-perfect timing event! I remember the morning of the March 3rd 1960 storm and the forecast was for snow turning to rain with moderating temperatures...I guess the weather bureau.didn't see the coastal developing and taking over the circulation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fits with the idea of mid winter suckage. I could see a late season revival, but I don't think I am going to make my forecast dependent upon it. Last season it ruined what was otherwise a good forecast because it came a few weeks too late. Great. So another early season 4 week winter followed by trash where the good pattern is always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Great. So another early season 4 week winter followed by trash where the good pattern is always 10 days away. I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 I also think January may be somehwhat salvageable, but we'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I also think January may be somehwhat salvageable, but we'll see.... '09 and '11 were obviously huge Januarys in +QBO Ninas. 2017 was a furnace, though it did have a few snow events. If we want to extend back further with +QBO Nina Januarys....Jan 2000 was actually pretty cold/snowy in an otherwise garbage winter. Jan '76 was frigid and snowy and Jan '72 was mild and snowless but then rebounded big in Feb...somewhat rare for Ninas. So there's definitely some decent precedent for cold/snowy Januarys in +QBO La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '09 and '11 were obviously huge Januarys in +QBO Ninas. 2017 was a furnace, though it did have a few snow events. If we want to extend back further with +QBO Nina Januarys....Jan 2000 was actually pretty cold/snowy in an otherwise garbage winter. Jan '76 was frigid and snowy and Jan '72 was mild and snowless but then rebounded big in Feb...somewhat rare for Ninas. So there's definitely some decent precedent for cold/snowy Januarys in +QBO La Ninas. I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high. Bookend winters are the new norm. Whether we ‘recover’ in Mar or April/May will make the difference on snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention. Dec 08 and January 2009 were both awesome up this way with 26" and 28", respectively. We cracked freezing 4 days in Jan 09 but it was barely above. We had better snow cover retention in 2008-09 than 2007-08. Although 2008-09 was a +QBO, it was a second year Nina with a deeply -PDO unlike this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Dec 08 and January 2009 were both awesome up this way with 26" and 28", respectively. We cracked freezing 4 days in Jan 09 but it was barely above. We had better snow cover retention in 2008-09 than 2007-08. Although 2008-09 was a +QBO, it was a second year Nina with a deeply -PDO unlike this year. Pretty hard to find a +QBO/+PDO winter in a La Nina....but 2016-2017 is basically the only one. You could maybe include 1985-1986 but that wasn't really a La Nina. It was a negative-neutral that fell just short of weak Nina. The PDO could still go solidly negative....it can change quickly. Though we're clearly not in a longer term deep -PDO like we were in the late 2000s/early 2010s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty hard to find a +QBO/+PDO winter in a La Nina....but 2016-2017 is basically the only one. You could maybe include 1985-1986 but that wasn't really a La Nina. It was a negative-neutral that fell just short of weak Nina. The PDO could still go solidly negative....it can change quickly. Though we're clearly not in a longer term deep -PDO like we were in the late 2000s/early 2010s. It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 speed/shearing is already observable ... Look at this flat baroclinic wave induced leaf on satellite - f'n haulin' absolute ass ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet... Yeah and Sept might still be neg too...but the last week or two has def trended strongly toward positive....I had posted the SSTA map yesterday or the day before. We'll see if it reverses again...I'd expect it to, but no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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