Winter 2020-2021

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking that. I know it was the same for my friend Dan who lived in Hubby land  too. It’s crazy.  I know something like that is coming. All we can do is prepare. 

This was another one that is in my top 5 or 10 that you throw your computer out the window on

 

[klw]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was the MLK melt year wasn’t it?

2007 had a huge Grinch melt.  I think it was around the 23rd.  We were in Bethlehem NH at the time and had a 22" pack taken down to an inch in a two day hit.  We recovered and I think there were still a few patches of snow on the ground all the way to May 1.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

My favorite snow events from early life are shared with Tom tamarack from growing up on the same region during some fun winters.

Absolutely.  3 March storms, 56, 58, 60.  3 big 60-61 storms, DJF.  Jan 64 cold storm, thundersnow on 12/24/66 (and that whole winter), Mayor Lindsey storm 2/69.  Great stuff!

[dryslot]

This thread needs to be pinned as its quite far down the list each time i visit.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This was another one that is in my top 5 or 10 that you throw your computer out the window on

 

Might be more for Ray...lol. But yeah, that stung. The event the day prior where we had TSSN sort of made up for it, as the forecast was "down the drain." 

[CoastalWx]

But after being rejected so many times at the pool, Wendy Peppercorn came over and actually made out with me on 3/31/97.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be more for Ray...lol. But yeah, that stung. The event the day prior where we had TSSN sort of made up for it, as the forecast was "down the drain." 

Yea, I made out fine in the first event...got like 8" of paste, in W Wilmington, but I expected more in the follow up wave. I got a quick 2" of slush...was like, "Yes, I made it".....then it flipped to rain and poured all night. Heard N Billerica had like 5" and I lost my $hit.

Steep pack gradient after those events....I still had several inches of cement, while my dad in Woburn square was wiped clean.

[CoastalWx]

Doesn't matter, the King came at the end of the season. Long live the King. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Little piggies starting to rear their ugly tails in the LR. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Little piggies starting to rear their ugly tails in the LR. 

The one eyed variety?

[ORH_wxman]

Not worried about piggies in October....we do start to worry in November. Esp the 2nd half of November.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not worried about piggies in October....we do start to worry in November. Esp the 2nd half of November.

That’s what I was told last year when I was concerned but it turned out to be a big problem.

[J.Spin]

23 hours ago, tamarack said:

Of all Will's snowfall maps, 07-08 had by far the greatest latitudinal contrast.  IIRC, 20" or less along the Sound to 140" in central NH.  CAR's all time record 198" was too far north to fit on the page.

I do recall seeing that map, and it’s quite a gradient of snowfall from north to south, but I don’t recall that it impressed upon me that areas in the Northeast actually had what one would describe as a “horrible winter”.  I see places in northern CT with 60-70” of snow, which seems pretty decent for down there as far as I know.  Even down in southern CT, much of the shading is the orange 20-30” range, which isn’t really off from average by more than a foot for those coastal spots is it?  I do see now that places like NYC and Long Island are in that brown <20” shading, but aren’t the snowfall averages in the mid-20” range down there anyway?  I might not have really focused much on the areas in brown though, since they are on the edge of the map and outside New England, and at quick glance I might have thought those areas were brown because the data simply weren’t plotted.  Didn’t that winter have substantially more snowfall than this past one down in those areas though?

For you and me, our observation sites aren’t even on the map, but there’s that same issue I mentioned in our discussion about that Northeast regional snowfall map in the NNE thread – you’ve got a fantastic level of gradation up to 100”, with literally shading for every 10” above 20”, but then all the gradations stop and it’s one solid color above 100”.  We had over 200” at our site that winter, and even though that’s a bit north of what’s shown, there must still be a lot of gradient in that fuchsia area that would be really interesting to see.  With that information you’d get an even better sense for the regional snowfall gradient.  If one kept going with the 10” gradations, you’d probably have almost an additional 10 levels up there and that would make for a great visual.  You can’t fault Will for not adding that, since he may not have the data to really do it up to his standards, and it’s not an area of focus for the map, but it would definitely be informative.  I was going to say that maybe the snowfall nuances up there were out of his region of expertise, but after that recent discussion about microclimates in NNH, it clear that his annual snowfall microclimate knowledge extends well into NNE.

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Little piggies starting to rear their ugly tails in the LR. 

No piggies please....September through March, but it is 2020, so why not

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s what I was told last year when I was concerned but it turned out to be a big problem.

When did we have a piggie in November last year?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s what I was told last year when I was concerned but it turned out to be a big problem.

There’s basically no correlation. So some years are going to be good after an October piggy (see 2010 or 1995) and other years are going to stink. 

As for last year, we didn’t actually have a pig in AK in October. Maybe briefly but the mean was a ridge that month. 

I’d worry if it shows up in November...esp 2nd half of the month. 

[CoastalWx]

I mean piggies show up all the time even if only briefly. That’s climo up there. Our best winters still feature them, they just aren’t a staple and have longevity like they do in our lousy winters. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean piggies show up all the time even if only briefly. That’s climo up there. Our best winters still feature them, they just aren’t a staple and have longevity like they do in our lousy winters. 

I remember running our true garbage dumpster fire winters one time and large majority of them had pigs in November for an extended stretch. Last year was actually an exception. 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember running our true garbage dumpster fire winters one time and large majority of them had pigs in November for an extended stretch. Last year was actually an exception. 

Yep...and man last year threw everyone for a loop. Who would have thought on 12/15 that we would enter such a historically bad stretch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

When did we have a piggie in November last year?

In October. That’s my point. I know the correaltion is weak but it happenned. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In October. That’s my point. I know the correaltion is weak but it happenned. 

I know it’s hard to undo the shook from last year, but I really believe there is nothing to fear when that happens in October. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s basically no correlation. So some years are going to be good after an October piggy (see 2010 or 1995) and other years are going to stink. 

As for last year, we didn’t actually have a pig in AK in October. Maybe briefly but the mean was a ridge that month. 

I’d worry if it shows up in November...esp 2nd half of the month. 

The monthly mean may not show it but I remember getting pretty nervous in October when it looked bad up there. I probably ended up being right for the wrong reasons though.

I just don’t like seeing any holes up there in the fall.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it’s hard to undo the shook from last year, but I really believe there is nothing to fear when that happens in October. 

Kinda like when it snows in October...nothing to fear?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Kinda like when it snows in October...nothing to fear?

Honestly no lol. 

[codfishsnowman]

Thank goodness for that strange event beginning of the month in December, with a round 2 that was the first real positive bust here in decades

 

 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly no lol. 

The good thing about two shitty winters in a row, and 2020 nostalgia, is that I have zero expectations this season.  

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The monthly mean may not show it but I remember getting pretty nervous in October when it looked bad up there. I probably ended up being right for the wrong reasons though.

I just don’t like seeing any holes up there in the fall.

Yeah the thing is, I can point to epic winters that had one up there in October. What do we say about it those times? It just isn’t very useful as a predictive measure imho. 

I’ll definitely be on the nervous train of it shows up in a sustained fashion deep in November. That’s where it actually seems to matter. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the thing is, I can point to epic winters that had one up there in October. What do we say about it those times? It just isn’t very useful as a predictive measure imho. 

I’ll definitely be on the nervous train of it shows up in a sustained fashion deep in November. That’s where it actually seems to matter. 

Saved in case we have to pop the question late Novie.

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep...and man last year threw everyone for a loop. Who would have thought on 12/15 that we would enter such a historically bad stretch. 

Yeah seriously. There’s basically no analog for last year. Closest is maybe 1996-1997 but the late November and December pattern last year was even better than ‘96 and the post-Xmas pattern was even shittier than ‘97. 

Really bizarre. The big -AO bout in November too is usually very highly correlated with another sustained -AO stretch in the winter but it didn’t happen. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah seriously. There’s basically no analog for last year. Closest is maybe 1996-1997 but the late November and December pattern last year was even better than ‘96 and the post-Xmas pattern was even shittier than ‘97. 

Really bizarre. The big -AO bout in November too is usually very highly correlated with another sustained -AO stretch in the winter but it didn’t happen. 

Almost as bizarre as a record snow winter with a raging +NAO.