Winter 2020-2021

[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

interesting. wasn't cosgrove just recently hyping that it would NOT be a weak Nina, but rather cold neutral? Now we are already talking possible moderate?

Larry Cosgrove hasn't been accurate since the early 2000s, dude.

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

interesting. wasn't cosgrove just recently hyping that it would NOT be a weak Nina, but rather cold neutral? Now we are already talking possible moderate?

I don’t know what he’s looking at, but every model is getting stronger and stronger with the December peak. It’s almost a unanimous forecast for moderate peak now. The models are also showing it evolving into a more “modoki” La Niña look as we move into winter, as SnowHibbo pointed out the other day

[UnitedWx]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar '56 to your generation was what Dec '92 was to mine (or maybe Mar '93 for those who got shafted in '92)...."The Big one that broke the snow drought" for each generation of kid snow weenies.

That December '92 storm was one I'll never forget. I thought I was dreaming! We couldn't even get our Christmas tree from our normal source because it closed down the tree farm in Riverton CT because of the depth and significant drifting.

[CoastalWx]

Rains to Maines it sounds like.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Rains to Maines it sounds like.

2011 incoming, lock it up.

[dryslot]

Around avg.

[weatherwiz]

You would think we are headed towards a stronger Nina episode based on how everything has transitioned the past few weeks. I kinda hate looking so closely at SSTA's this early and putting a significant amount of thought into them (outside of the Nino region) but it's kinda hard to ignore the striking configuration...but I guess with climate change such a look is just going to become the norm. 

In the PAC, outside of the ENSO region it's pretty much bath water...especially the NPAC from East Asia to the western North American coast. The PDO has become quite negative as well (perhaps also influencing the rapidly developing Nina?). Obviously the NPAC (more specifically the Gulf of Alaska) is prone to changes and we could see these anomalies cool some as we we into the cool season. But as long as the anomalies remain this impressive you would think this will result in strong latent heat release which could keep ridging established in this region...of course which may not be a bad thing for us. 

The Atlantic too (especially off the East coast) is extremely warmer than average (thanks in part to the lack of cold fronts and established ridging). Even off the coast of Greenland it's super warm. This could perhaps leads to one of two things;

1) Keeps NATL ridging established well into the winter with ridging extending to the East 

2) Enhance the probability for a negative NAO/AO 

If we are able to establish a ridge into the West hopefully we can be sandwiched between the two ridges...and then it's just a matter of where the trough axis can become established. I think there is quite a bit of potential in this upcoming winter. 

 

In terms of ENSO, we should continue to see quite a bit of cooling in the ENSO regions...quite a bit of easterly wind bursts and a pretty significant one forecast too right around the dateline:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

You would think we are headed towards a stronger Nina episode based on how everything has transitioned the past few weeks. I kinda hate looking so closely at SSTA's this early and putting a significant amount of thought into them (outside of the Nino region) but it's kinda hard to ignore the striking configuration...but I guess with climate change such a look is just going to become the norm. 

In the PAC, outside of the ENSO region it's pretty much bath water...especially the NPAC from East Asia to the western North American coast. The PDO has become quite negative as well (perhaps also influencing the rapidly developing Nina?). Obviously the NPAC (more specifically the Gulf of Alaska) is prone to changes and we could see these anomalies cool some as we we into the cool season. But as long as the anomalies remain this impressive you would think this will result in strong latent heat release which could keep ridging established in this region...of course which may not be a bad thing for us. 

The Atlantic too (especially off the East coast) is extremely warmer than average (thanks in part to the lack of cold fronts and established ridging). Even off the coast of Greenland it's super warm. This could perhaps leads to one of two things;

1) Keeps NATL ridging established well into the winter with ridging extending to the East 

2) Enhance the probability for a negative NAO/AO 

If we are able to establish a ridge into the West hopefully we can be sandwiched between the two ridges...and then it's just a matter of where the trough axis can become established. I think there is quite a bit of potential in this upcoming winter. 

......

......

In terms of ENSO, we should continue to see quite a bit of cooling in the ENSO regions...quite a bit of easterly wind bursts and a pretty significant one forecast too right around the dateline:

Relative to normal, 'bath water' by hyperbole, yes.  But that is crucial.  Present climate is still being defined by data and arithmetic ..but, that doesn't mean the climate hasn't changed - it just means the conventions of empirical data have yet to formulate a proof.

In this case...we've wend the Global paradigm into one where these modes of ENSO variances (along a mere 15 deg latitude, N-S of the Equator ) do not appear as significantly motivating forces in the gestalt ( synergistic hemispheric circulation ) of the atmosphere. By comparison to your 2nd bolded statement, those scalar measures are too comparatively small.  It doesn't add up at just the observational scale ...where intuition, apriori experience, and education, all provide a kind of conceptual arithmetic - how can they?  

How does such a small band of wind driven SST anomalies, out force the entire expanse of the World's oceanic heat surplus - which is in fact measurable.  My opinion out among the vitriol of this modern, "arrestingly incisive" era of the social mediaspheric hoi polloi .. means nothing, but, it seems increasingly more suspicious to me that the ENSO variances we are clocking are more like emerging the other way around... The imposing fractals of the outside total "gestaltic" (not a word) atmospheric eddy is driving these things into existence. And then of course folks, perhaps for being less aware .. see the warm or cool SSTs unfolding and start oopsing their seasonal forecast the wrong way. ...  ha, that'd be awesome - might offer a nice explanation as to why seasonal outlooks, look opposite what happened - huh?

Half tongue in cheek there 

We've already began to see this muting effect tho. The last couple of ENSO variances did not correlate as well, with observed Global impacts along normal climate problem regions blase.  That super nino 5 years ago?  Joke -   ...that sucker shoulda altered Earth's orbital trajectory and sent Gravity Waves to the Andromeda galaxy by the drama of El Nino inherited from the 1990s press-kit.  It sparked fireflies; because it occurred already in a sea of planetary warm spotlights. 

The 2nd bold should modulate the significance of the third bold.  It does for me... Because of 2, toss 3.

I toss all seasonal outlooks based upon ENSOs - perhaps out of hyperbolic frustration to some degree ( pun intended).  In the "arithmetic" of balancing forces, we are in a new climate paradigm and it's just going to take a generation or two to sink in. ENSO is not nearly as important in the total modulation ... not when it is tucked squarely and securely deep inside a HC that has expanded enough to where said ENSO physics are not "as" interactive with the westerlies... 

It's going to be a rinse repeat winter... fast flow!!!  fast fast fast.  Probably, more at or even exceeded ground-based flight velocities being observed over the past several seasons - some close to sonic speeds yet again, reported by routine Global traffic demography...  8 to 12 isohypsotic gradients betwee SPVs and ambien heights < 40th parallel ... with 130 kts of wind and S/W's so overwhelmed by the large scale torque focusing, there is no mechanics left and they get lost in the flow and open up as yet more fast motion blown open QPF smears that strafe across continents at 40 to 60 kts...   The interesting thing, ... bomb frequency will be down, but...those bombs that do form, will have hurricane pressure depths and 70 kts cold conveyor wind PGF responses - like what happened in NF last year... that was a classic high velocity compression bomb event.   

Thing is... how this drives seasonal snow vs rain, or precipitation totals is unclear. I don't think it does ... yet.   I think we still have ample cold around for snow - if that's one focus. But I also think we favor more ice storms.   

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Relative to normal, 'bath water' by hyperbole, yes.  But that is crucial.  Present climate is still being defined by data and arithmetic ..but, that doesn't mean the climate hasn't changed - it just means the conventions of empirical data have yet to formulate a proof.

In this case...we've wend the Global paradigm into one where these modes of ENSO variances (along a mere 15 deg latitude, N-S of the Equator ) do not appear as significantly motivating forces in the gestalt ( synergistic hemispheric circulation ) of the atmosphere. By comparison to your 2nd bolded statement, those scalar measures are too comparatively small.  It doesn't add up at just the observational scale ...where intuition, apriori experience, and education, all provide a kind of conceptual arithmetic - how can they?  

How does such a small band of wind driven SST anomalies, out force the entire expanse of the World's oceanic heat surplus - which is in fact measurable.  My opinion out among the vitriol of this modern, arrestingly incisive era of the social mediaspheric hoi polloi .. means nothing, but, it seems increasingly more suspicious to me that the ENSO variances we are clocking are more like emerging the other way around... The imposing fractals of the outside total "gestaltic" (not a word) atmospheric eddy is driving these things into existence. And then of course folks, perhaps for being less aware .. see the warm or cool SSTs unfolding and start oopsing their seasonal forecast the wrong way. ...  ha, that'd be awesome - might offer a nice explanation as to why seasonal outlooks, look opposite - huh?

Half tongue in cheek there 

We've already began to see this muting effect tho. The last couple of ENSO variances did not correlate as well, with observed Global impacts along normal climate problem regions blase.  That super nino 5 years ago?  Joke -   ...that sucker shoulda altered Earth's orbital trajectory and sent Gravity Waves to the Andromeda galaxy by the drama of El Nino inherited from the 1990s press-kit.  It sparked fireflies in a sea of planetary warm spotlights. 

The 2nd bold should modulate the significance of the third bold.  It does for me... Because of 2, toss 3.

I toss all seasonal outlooks based upon ENSOs - perhaps out of hyperbolic frustration to some degree ( pun intended).  In the "arithmetic" of balancing forces, we are in a new climate paradigm and it's just going to take a generation or two to sink in. ENSO is not nearly as important in the total modulation ... not when it is tucked squarely and securely deep inside a HC that has expanded enough to where said ENSO physics are not "as" interactive with the westerlies... 

It's going to be a rinse repeat winter... fast flow!!!  fast fast fast.  Probably, more at or even exceeded ground-based flight velocities close to sonic speeds yet again, reported by routine Global traffic demography...  8 to 12 isohypsotic convulsions with 130 kts of wind and S/W's so overwhelmed by the large scale torque focusing, there is no mechanics left and they get lost in the flow and open up as yet more fast motion blown open QPF smears that strafe across continents at 40 to 60 kts...   The interesting thing, ... bomb frequency will be down, but...those bombs that do form, will have hurricane pressure depths and 70 kts cold conveyor wind PGF responses - like what happened in NF last year... that was a classic high velocity compression bomb event.   

Thing is... how this drives seasonal snow vs rain, or precipitation totals is unclear. I don't think it does ... yet.   I think we still have ample cold around for snow - if that's one focus. But I also think we favor more ice storms.   

Forgive me if I have misunderstood your post and the jest of what you were saying but from what I gather, you essentially also believe the ENSO-atmospheric response/interaction doesn't hold as much weight as we once thought or as they once did...is that correct? 

If I did interpret that correctly, I also agree...and strongly. I know ENSO was/still is an "essential tool" behind seasonal forecasting but I fully believe ENSO just isn't that big of a driver...it just seems like there are so many other variables that, when combined, hold more weight than ENSO. Now...is this due to climate change or is it perhaps due to an incorrect understanding we had on ENSO? The later could be very true...especially as the data set regarding different ENSO events expands, the different strengths, and even the structure of the anomalies themselves. 

But...if the oceans overall are becoming warmer and we constantly see the majority of ocean temperatures being warmer than average...this I'm sure will hold a significant amount of weight and influence teleconnections and how they dictate global weather patterns...regardless of ENSO state. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/10/2020 at 10:57 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay yeah ...I actually wasn't living in this region of the country until mid way 1984 ...  hense, why I qualified that with, "I am not sure though"  lol

But, by the time the SYZYGY event took place tho, there were several winters of cruel banality - so I think the point of being a focus by virtue of there simply not having been anything going on across an extended period of time, should have some psycho-babble usefulness...maybe. 

We all know it doesn't take long in this social media sphere for pathos to get going .. requiring doubling up on XANAX and Demerol if a winter so much as waits a single f'n modeling cycle to show a societal halting yard-stick bomb on ISP ...So, going 3 winters of unceremonious boredom amid a back-drop of mid 1980s conservatism's cultural of spirit arresting toe-the-line conformity to offer any other sense of poetic freedom ... (how did society get through that era avoiding a collective group psychological nuclear war suicide bid may be the greatest unsung achievement of Humanity there is...) might have encouraged a "sense" and longing for grandiosity once that early January 1987 (finally!) arrived. 

Oh yea......boring period for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/10/2020 at 10:13 AM, snowman19 said:

Yea, the -PDO is a match but the QBO is different. NOAA just issued a Niña advisory and it looks like this thing may peak at moderate strength come December. The models keep getting stronger with the peak. 

 

I'm still on the weak train for now.

[NorEastermass128]

Haven’t paid any attention, what’s the Sparknotes version of what we’re thinking. So long as it’s not a slam dunk ratter like 11-12, I’m okay with it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Forgive me if I have misunderstood your post and the jest of what you were saying but from what I gather, you essentially also believe the ENSO-atmospheric response/interaction doesn't hold as much weight as we once thought or as they once did...is that correct? 

If I did interpret that correctly, I also agree...and strongly. I know ENSO was/still is an "essential tool" behind seasonal forecasting but I fully believe ENSO just isn't that big of a driver...it just seems like there are so many other variables that, when combined, hold more weight than ENSO. Now...is this due to climate change or is it perhaps due to an incorrect understanding we had on ENSO? The later could be very true...especially as the data set regarding different ENSO events expands, the different strengths, and even the structure of the anomalies themselves. 

But...if the oceans overall are becoming warmer and we constantly see the majority of ocean temperatures being warmer than average...this I'm sure will hold a significant amount of weight and influence teleconnections and how they dictate global weather patterns...regardless of ENSO state. 

It's a hypothesis... but one that I think is growing in 'weight' - to use your term there, because the emerging observation pool of data supports it. 

Again, the last notable ENSO anomalies have been presenting less impacts around the world's climate impact known regions.  And, I admit to some conceit in that I formulated this notion...of attenuating ENSO in GW years prior to observing these observations emerge - and it is tougher to ignore one's own idea when the environment starts bolting the scaffolding of the theoretics together - that's called the scientific process:  formulate foresight; experimentation; data either supports or refutes said foresight...  In this case, a super nino with comparatively blase planetary effects/affects was papered and refereed ...etc..

I think the crucial value of ENSO as a predictive tool was more important back prior to the expansion of the HC ...notable and discussed here ( note: CH 5 ):

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

If one absorbs that information and balances it across the last 20 years of existential atmospheric awareness ... I think they can sense a correlation .. mm hm. 

[raindancewx]

I'm with the one guy on the ice storms. I think there will be 2-3 big ice storms for the east this winter.

I can't help but notice that despite very different setups since 2006, the lowest sea ice extent Septembers (<4.3m square km) tend to favor the West for cold in cold ENSO years (2007, 2012, 2016) while the higher years do not (2008, 2010, 2013, 2017), with 2011 (4.3m almost exactly) a NM/West TX special (it was very cold that December here). The east of course is warm in those lowest ice years, while the higher ice cold ENSO years are pretty cold for the east and very hot for the west.

We don't really have sea-ice extent data for the 1950s/1960s, but the historical look backs I've seen imply that those years had sea ice around 5m in some Septembers when the Atlantic was very warm especially for that era. A lot of those cold ENSO years are also pretty cold in the West, 1954, 1955, 1961,1964 as examples. In other words, I don't think it's the volume of sea ice itself, I think its something being near the cyclical physical ice-extent minimum in a cold ENSO that may favor it (I say cyclical, because eventually we'll beat 2012, but not soon).

The Northwest has a very strong tendency to be cold in La Ninas following El Ninos (1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016 is the most recent composite for that). Every one of those years has at least someone cold (or relatively cold in national blow torches like 2005-06, and 1998-99) in the Northwest, between San Francisco and the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Not a single exception. 

I don't think it's the La Ninas themselves favoring the NW for cold those years, it's the big time cool down y/y that favors the cold for them up there, just like the big warm ups favor cold down here rather than the actual El Nino strength or type. If you look, there is no direct correlation between cold ENSO strength and temps in most NW cities, just like there isn't for warm ENSO and temps down here, it's the trend up or down that favors cold for the West. You can find other similar years, the current temperature anomalies for September in the US look like a lot like a blend of 2008/2011 for instance, but I'd still favor the La Nina following El Nino years overall, even though 2011 is the run away top match for similar temperatures here since June, and fairly close in Nino 3.4 for a few months now. The problem is a lot of the recent La Ninas are pretty similar to this May-August in Nino 3.4.

The NAO and PDO both generally look wrong to me for Eastern cold, but I wouldn't expect the NAO to be completely positive for the winter. I do think there will be a moment with either rapid changes in MJO forcing or La Nina rapidly weakening, along with slowly rising solar activity that will allow the NAO to go negative. Winters like 2009-10, 2010-11, 2012-13 that had -NAO conditions at times and were generally trending more active in terms of solar conditions, even though 2009-10 and 2010-11 were both pretty low for solar activity. We hit a 12-month minimum of 1.7 sunspots/month (bottom 1% for all 12-month solar periods back to 1749) through February 2020 and have been (very) slowly trending up since. This is solar activity for 2009 and 2020 by month.

2009	1	2009.042	1.3
2009	2	2009.123	1.2
2009	3	2009.204	0.6
2009	4	2009.288	1.2
2009	5	2009.371	2.9
2009	6	2009.455	6.3
2009	7	2009.538	5.5
2009	8	2009.623	0
2009	9	2009.707	7.1
2009	10	2009.79	7.7
2009	11	2009.874	6.9
2009	12	2009.958	16.3

2020	1	2020.042	6.4
2020	2	2020.124	0.4
2020	3	2020.206	1.5
2020	4	2020.288	5.4
2020	5	2020.373	0.2
2020	6	2020.455	5.8
2020	7	2020.54	6.3
2020	8	2020.624	7.6

[Damage In Tolland]

Drought

 

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drought

 

Only issue i have with this is ENSO to precip correlation is basically zero over New England. Exception might be a weak positive correlation over far SE MA and south coast. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only issue i have with this is ENSO to precip correlation is basically zero over New England. Exception might be a weak positive correlation over far SE MA and south coast. 

Phil no agree 

 

[PhineasC]

I'm thinking I should root for a dominant northern stream parade of clippers.

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Phil no agree 

 

Well he is on the Cape.....the place where there is actually a positive correlation. 

[weathafella]

Lol...I remember 2014 September being dry and Kevin posting Epstein correlation of the higher probability of a sub 50 inch snow winter.   That on the doorstep of the snowiest winter on record...lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...I remember 2014 September being dry and Kevin posting Epstein correlation of the higher probability of a sub 50 inch snow winter.   That on the doorstep of the snowiest winter on record...lol.

This whole year has been severely dry 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...I remember 2014 September being dry and Kevin posting Epstein correlation of the higher probability of a sub 50 inch snow winter.   That on the doorstep of the snowiest winter on record...lol.

That’s right!! Lol. I forgot about that. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This whole year has been severely dry 

Not severe.  Sorry but 25% below normal is just not severe..  lol...lawns aren’t the drought marker.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I'm thinking I should root for a dominant northern stream parade of clippers.

They're underrated ...

Most people think of "Colorado Low" model transits through the heartland .. .Or straight up southern stream lows/QPF messes that run up and over a cold dome ...always special... Or S/stream waves that 'get captured' and phase - but that's/those are rare and getting rarer in a fast hemisphere anomaly that's become decadal or longer as a climate bias ...etc.  

But I'll take a potent 42 unit v-max cutting across S NJ with a concurrent upstream PNAP in progress any day.  And that's the extreme version ... you don't even have to have that perfect a set up ...even flat waves with strong jet maxes can NJ Model the hell out of a nuke ... Dec 2005 is a superb example.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They're underrated ...

Most people think of "Colorado Low" model transits through the heartland .. .Or straight up southern stream lows/QPF messes that run up and over a cold dome ...always special... Or S/stream waves that 'get captured' and phase - but that's/those are rare and getting rarer in a fast hemisphere anomaly that's become decadal or longer as a climate bias ...etc.  

But I'll take a potent 42 unit v-max cutting across S NJ with a concurrent upstream PNAP in progress any day.  And that's the extreme version ... you don't even have to have that perfect a set up ...even flat waves with strong jet maxes can NJ Model the hell out of a nuke ... Dec 2005 is a superb example.

The funny thing is I could tell Phineas was seething when I was in full weenie mode for that clipper dumping a widespread 6+ 12/31/08.  Must have been pre sub forums and he was annoyed from MD.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The funny thing is I could tell Phineas was seething when I was in full weenie mode for that clipper dumping a widespread 6+ 12/31/08.  Must have been pre sub forums and he was annoyed from MD.

I decided instead of getting mad I'd just leapfrog the issue altogether.  

[weathafella]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I decided instead of getting mad I'd just leapfrog the issue altogether.  

Well now we’re in the same region but your snow should be double mine.   Gonna spend some time in the next 6 months checking out snowy locations close enough to medical care...lol.

[Fozz]

My gut feeling says this will be a pretty good winter, but COVID might stop us from fully enjoying it. My main concern is how safe it is to stay at a hotel or AirBnB for any ski weekend in NNE.

Based on last winter, which was practically a repeat of 2001-02 and unimpressive even by the standards of my old home, going the extra distance to NNE was worth it just about every single time. It was not too bad up there.

[weathafella]

Looking at the NPAC I feel encouraged.   Warming in the GOAK, Warming also in the PDO region.  As of this moment, we could be heading into a big winter if all these trends continue.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looking at the NPAC I feel encouraged.   Warming in the GOAK, Warming also in the PDO region.  As of this moment, we could be heading into a big winter if all these trends continue.

It’s an early signaler but I suspect we run into gradient saturation and similar neggie interference patterning as it gets deeper ..,

Quickstart —> stalls and may be a late push ... been recurring theme