Winter 2020-2021

[OSUmetstud]

8 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My guess is the map is based on 1961-90 averages given the date listed at the bottom. But it is big and fairly detailed. I just assumed SE Canada would be somewhat lower in a more recent period. But there actually aren't a lot of good maps of Canadian snowfall out there from what I've seen.

Rodney Barney ECCC Met in Gander posted this on twitter last year. 

[OSUmetstud]

I think that's fairly conservative, overall, like I'd be surprised if the Baie Verte Peninsula on the north coast there averages less than 300 cm per year. 

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Toronto only averages 45 inches of snow? That seems really low to me. I get it might not be the synoptic Mecca, but that seems a little low to me.

We're too far south of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to get any lake effect snow other than occasional dustings to 2". And on-top of that, an E or SE wind off Lake Ontario is even rarer. When storms move up the Apps, unless they track just south of Lake Erie, we never cash in. These storms are usually golden for you guys in New England. Our geographic location sucks. Too far west of the Atlantic and too far north of the Gulf to get any real moisture laden storms. We were less than 100 miles away from some of those big March 2018 storms that slam dunked NNE. 

95% of our snowfall every winter is synoptic. 

[OSUmetstud]

Preliminary, but 2008-2009 looks like a decent analog for the coming winter, I think. 

[Snowstorms]

11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Preliminary, but 2008-2009 looks like a decent analog for the coming winter, I think. 

Was a second year Nina though. I think 2007-08 seems like a better analog. It also came off a weak Nino and was the first -PDO/La Nina winter since 1999-2000. Current subsurface anomalies are quite similar to 2007 as well. 

[raindancewx]

My issue with 2008 has always been it was warming up in the tropics that year instead of cooling. So the fact that we're cooler in Nino 3.4 already, after coming off an El Nino, makes me think the La Nina is stronger than 2008-09. The bold in Nino 3.4 in August. In a lot of ways, 2008-09 is a poor man's 1995-96, so it's not terrible by any means. I've flirted with using it at times. The 2008 hurricane season was a lot more active than this season seems like it will be in the Atlantic. The NE tends to have higher snow totals roughly from DC to Maine in the higher ACE La Nina years. I can also tell you that generally, 2008 was a cold/wet summer in the Southwest, and this summer is opposite. For whatever reason, the hottest Summers in the Southwest in La Nina tend to precede the colder winters. The NE getting hit by several tropical storms this summer is a good sign for Nor'easters I think (kind of like 2003/2012). I just think a lot of them will be snow to rain or rain to snow events without enough cold air for the entire event.

2008  24.86  25.08  26.07  26.83  27.09  27.04  26.99  26.72  26.47  26.37  26.25  25.74

2020  27.14  27.11  27.76  28.17  27.65  27.38  26.99  26.30 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My issue with 2008 has always been it was warming up in the tropics that year instead of cooling. So the fact that we're cooler in Nino 3.4 already, after coming off an El Nino, makes me think the La Nina is stronger than 2008-09. The bold in Nino 3.4 in August. In a lot of ways, 2008-09 is a poor man's 1995-96, so it's not terrible by any means. I've flirted with using it at times. The 2008 hurricane season was a lot more active than this season seems like it will be in the Atlantic. The NE tends to have higher snow totals roughly from DC to Maine in the higher ACE La Nina years. I can also tell you that generally, 2008 was a cold/wet summer in the Southwest, and this summer is opposite. For whatever reason, the hottest Summers in the Southwest in La Nina tend to precede the colder winters. The NE getting hit by several tropical storms this winter is a good sign for Nor'easters I think. I just think a lot of them will be snow to rain or rain to snow events without enough cold air for the entire event.

2008  24.86  25.08  26.07  26.83  27.09  27.04  26.99  26.72  26.47  26.37  26.25  25.74

2020  27.14  27.11  27.76  28.17  27.65  27.38  26.99  26.30 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

I wouldn't sell the hurricane seasonal already based on low ACE production so far given the potential. 

[raindancewx]

The Atlantic ACE index averages 105 for 1981-2010. So there hasn't been a below average ACE year since 2015. I wouldn't be shocked if it happened this year. Statistically, Sept 13 is the half way point for total ACE in the 1981-2010 period. We're at 48 ACE as of the last update, and it goes up ~1.5 points per day in September on average, which is about a day of 1.5 tropical storms as a very rough estimate. I don't see any long-lived spurts of major hurricanes for at least 2-3 days, so it's not going to change dramatically though 9/13 when the season will be half over.

For the data on the CSU site I can't find a five year period since 1851 where the ACE was above 105 each year for five years in a row in the Atlantic. Four years is fairly common:

1891-1894

1998-2001

2016-2019

I understand something unexpected could happen, we could have three category five hurricanes Sept 20-Oct 10, but I definitely lean toward an ACE index of 80-120 at this point rather than 120-160, or 160-200. Historically, September finishes around 80, and then you get 20-30 more points Oct-Nov. The fast start has really slowed since late August with the MJO help fading. It's pretty hard to get a complete crap winter in the West if the ACE is under 160 - so I'm definitely rooting for that but we'll see how it goes.

 

[OSUmetstud]

14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The Atlantic ACE index averages 105 for 1981-2010. So there hasn't been a below average ACE year since 2015. I wouldn't be shocked if it happened this year. Statistically, Sept 13 is the half way point for total ACE in the 1981-2010 period. We're at 48 ACE as of the last update, and it goes up ~1.5 points per day in September on average, which is about a day of 1.5 tropical storms as a very rough estimate. I don't see any long-lived spurts of major hurricanes for at least 2-3 days, so it's not going to change dramatically though 9/13 when the season will be half over.

For the data on the CSU site I can't find a five year period since 1851 where the ACE was above 105 each year for five years in a row in the Atlantic. Four years is fairly common:

1891-1894

1998-2001

2016-2019

I understand something unexpected could happen, we could have three category five hurricanes Sept 20-Oct 10, but I definitely lean toward an ACE index of 80-120 at this point rather than 120-160, or 160-200. Historically, September finishes around 80, and then you get 20-30 more points Oct-Nov. The fast start has really slowed since late August with the MJO help fading. It's pretty hard to get a complete crap winter in the West if the ACE is under 160 - so I'm definitely rooting for that but we'll see how it goes.

 

I just don't see how methodology like this really holds much weight. It's interesting, historically speaking, but as a meteorologist, and someone who watches the tropics on a regular basis, why would I throw out all the experts who continue to believe this season will be very active. 

[The 4 Seasons]

I cant in my brain compute metric without converting it to standard, im sure im not alone in this. But ill admit Metric is obviously superior, standard is so dumb and outdated, we really need to get rid of it.

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

And what’s with the Commie metric measurements?  C’mon. 

 

[raindancewx]

To me the experts have been half right on the season.  A lot of the forecasts I saw had a lot of tropical storms - that's clearly right. One of the years I had for Summer though was 2007, which had only 74 ACE despite 15 tropical storms.

We could easily end up with 20 or more in the Atlantic by the end of the season, which is pretty historic by any measure, even with the naming of the fish storms. 

It looks like about ~30% of seasons since 1851 have above average ACE, so I guess it's interesting to me, as someone who works with statistics a lot because you don't tend to see ~30% outcomes five times in a row in real world situations, even if they are independently determined. You can think of it like getting a La Nina or an El Nino five times in a row, which are also 30% outcomes realistically, since you have about 20 La Nina and 20 El Nino winters in the last 60 years. You get ~four same sign ENSO events once in a blue moon, but we've never seen five.

If you think of 26.0C or colder in winter as La Nina in Nino 3.4, then 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 is damn close to four La Ninas in a row as a recent example. But five would be pretty incredible wouldn't it? The Atlantic is different from ENSO, so it's not a guarantee that the season won't be active. But I do lean to below average.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein staying thru winter. Mild and dry 

 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein staying thru winter. Mild and dry 

 

Fires keep burning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...I suppose .. 

It's hard to find very many write ups about that one without digging thru back-paged web searches .. more so than I care to do.  But at the time, it was considered a pretty big deal. It was called "The SYZYGY STORM" storm storm

It may just be relative to era; as we've lamented about the 1980s in yore ... thus having a 12-18" snow lopped over a CF fist leading an arm of 55 to 60 mph, cold conveyor gusting in from NE during that particular pathos?  It would by acclimation be huge. In fact, it may have been the biggest interior-east event in SNE since 1978 considering those dearth years.  I'm not sure though...I think there was a freak early April blizzard back in 1982 ... '84?  god, me and dates: can't remember 'em; can't get 'em 

Anyway, it was also before the climate started changing and we began handing out 12+" snow events like Pez candies.  You know I think we've even endured posts over the last 8 years where someone got 15" amidst a 20" pancake event and called the thing a bust?   ... It's like wow - how quickly folks get entitled.  Lol -

This may sound hypocritical to that but ...I think this "up era" that we've been enjoying is different than it's predecessors though.  We are definitively and incontrovertibly involved in a climate change that has been both predicted by modeling, and empirically shown, to be hosting increased PWAT - and having exaggerated snow results relative to storm frequency and intensity ( that italic is the whole thing! ) is being missed by many as a separate distinguishing ordeal.  

In other words, a dearth winter era in this climate may have more precipitation by virtue of the warming atmosphere and increased PWAT going forward ... interesting. 

 

Megalopolis system, December 1981 event, Blizz of April '82 and the March 30 1984 event stand out in my mind....

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein staying thru winter. Mild and dry 

 

Look like avg precip north of the pike, if we want to split hairs at several months lead. :LOL:

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My issue with 2008 has always been it was warming up in the tropics that year instead of cooling. So the fact that we're cooler in Nino 3.4 already, after coming off an El Nino, makes me think the La Nina is stronger than 2008-09. The bold in Nino 3.4 in August. In a lot of ways, 2008-09 is a poor man's 1995-96, so it's not terrible by any means. I've flirted with using it at times. The 2008 hurricane season was a lot more active than this season seems like it will be in the Atlantic. The NE tends to have higher snow totals roughly from DC to Maine in the higher ACE La Nina years. I can also tell you that generally, 2008 was a cold/wet summer in the Southwest, and this summer is opposite. For whatever reason, the hottest Summers in the Southwest in La Nina tend to precede the colder winters. The NE getting hit by several tropical storms this summer is a good sign for Nor'easters I think (kind of like 2003/2012). I just think a lot of them will be snow to rain or rain to snow events without enough cold air for the entire event.

2008  24.86  25.08  26.07  26.83  27.09  27.04  26.99  26.72  26.47  26.37  26.25  25.74

2020  27.14  27.11  27.76  28.17  27.65  27.38  26.99  26.30 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

My main issues with 2007-2008 is the la nina intensity and QBO, which I have seen you discuss. Not a terrible analog, though.

[tamarack]

On ‎9‎/‎9‎/‎2020 at 8:38 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It was mostly the early 1950s....at least over SNE....1955-1956 seemed to break the bad stretch.

From March 1956 thru February 1961 we had 8 snowstorms of 18"+, including 2 with 20" and 3 with 24".  (I wasn't into precise measurements but my dad measured the first one at 23.5" with snow still accumulating, giving me at least a subjective benchmark.)  Even in snowy Maine I've not had a 60-month period with 8 storms of 18+.  The (cherrypicked) period April 1984 thru February 2001 failed to hit the 18" mark even once.  Even if I drop the threshold to 15" (the NNJ 5-yr run had no storms 15"+ but <18") the best I can find is 5, once in Ft. Kent and twice where I now live.  Using 18" the top is 3 in 5-years. 
(Of course, outside of the wonderful 56-61 run, we never had even 2 of 18+ in another distinct 60 NNJ months.  Jan 1964 and Feb 1969 are the only other 18s I experienced there, unless one includes the 1966 blizzard in Baltimore when I was at Hopkins.)

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My main issues with 2007-2008 is the la nina intensity and QBO, which I have seen you discuss. Not a terrible analog, though.

Yea, the -PDO is a match but the QBO is different. NOAA just issued a Niña advisory and it looks like this thing may peak at moderate strength come December. The models keep getting stronger with the peak. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Megalopolis system, December 1981 event, Blizz of April '82 and the March 30 1984 event stand out in my mind....

Okay yeah ...I actually wasn't living in this region of the country until mid way 1984 ...  hense, why I qualified that with, "I am not sure though"  lol

But, by the time the SYZYGY event took place tho, there were several winters of cruel banality - so I think the point of being a focus by virtue of there simply not having been anything going on across an extended period of time, should have some psycho-babble usefulness...maybe. 

We all know it doesn't take long in this social media sphere for pathos to get going .. requiring doubling up on XANAX and Demerol if a winter so much as waits a single f'n modeling cycle to show a societal halting yard-stick bomb on ISP ...So, going 3 winters of unceremonious boredom amid a back-drop of mid 1980s conservatism's cultural of spirit arresting toe-the-line conformity to offer any other sense of poetic freedom ... (how did society get through that era avoiding a collective group psychological nuclear war suicide bid may be the greatest unsung achievement of Humanity there is...) might have encouraged a "sense" and longing for grandiosity once that early January 1987 (finally!) arrived. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay yeah ...I actually wasn't living in this region of the country until mid way 1984 ...  hense, why I qualified that with, "I am not sure though"  lol

But, by the time the SYZYGY event took place tho, there were several winters of cruel banality - so I think the point of being a focus by virtue of there simply not having been anything going on across an extended period of time, should have some psycho-babble usefulness...maybe. 

We all know it doesn't take long in this social media sphere for pathos to get going .. requiring doubling up on XANAX and Demerol if a winter so much as waits a single f'n modeling cycle to show a societal halting yard-stick bomb on ISP ...So, going 3 winters of unceremonious boredom amid a back-drop of mid 1980s conservatism's cultural of spirit arresting toe-the-line conformity to offer any other sense of poetic freedom ... (how did society get through that era avoiding a collective group psychological nuclear war suicide bid may be the greatest unsung achievement of Humanity there is...) might have encouraged a "sense" and longing for grandiosity once that early January 1987 (finally!) arrived. 

Wonderful hyperbole!  But that "finally" hits the (short-term) spot for Jan. 2, 1987.  PWM was reporting SN at 4 AM but I had finished lunch when the first flakes appeared outside my Augusta office, around 12:30.  Within what seemed like 30 seconds (more likely a couple minutes) the rate had gone from 2 flakes to 1/8 mile visibility.  By far the most abrupt wall of precip I've seen from a synoptic event.  That 16" storm was the 2nd biggest of my 13 mostly mediocre winters in Gardiner.

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

The 1940s were kickass here in Toronto. We averaged ~55" that decade which is 10" above our seasonal average. A couple winters that really stand out; 

1940-41: 64.3"

1942-43: 72.6"

1944-45: 97.6"  << YYZ lowballed this winter lol 

1946-47: 76.7"

1949-50: 77.3" 

That 1944-45 winter featured a 26" storm which is a top 5 storm. Just based on analytics, I wouldn't mind a repeat of the 1940s. Only two winters that entire decade were duds.

WOW what a difference. Im guessing your 2 duds were 1941-42 & 1948-49. 1940s winters were absolutely pitiful snow wise in Detroit to the point where you would look & think, is this right? However everything checks out from an observation standpoint to newspapers. Even looking at newspaper articles, sometimes it would be, Detroit digs out from 3" snowfall but escapes brunt of storm". Just a sh*tty decade.  There were literally zero big snowstorms the entire decade, just a few 5 to 6" deals. Three huge ice storms though & 1 legit blizzard (only 3" snow but 60-70mph winds). 1942-43 & 1944-45 were good snow cover Winters here but again the snowfall itself was nothing fancy. 1942-43 was the snowiest season of the decade with, get this, 44.4", which is basically average. 1944-45 was cold, white, and dry.  Average snowfall for the 1940s was 27.6", Which is about 15" below the long term average and 4" below the next least snowy decade, the 1930s.

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

From March 1956 thru February 1961 we had 8 snowstorms of 18"+, including 2 with 20" and 3 with 24".  (I wasn't into precise measurements but my dad measured the first one at 23.5" with snow still accumulating, giving me at least a subjective benchmark.)  Even in snowy Maine I've not had a 60-month period with 8 storms of 18+.  The (cherrypicked) period April 1984 thru February 2001 failed to hit the 18" mark even once.  Even if I drop the threshold to 15" (the NNJ 5-yr run had no storms 15"+ but <18") the best I can find is 5, once in Ft. Kent and twice where I now live.  Using 18" the top is 3 in 5-years. 
(Of course, outside of the wonderful 56-61 run, we never had even 2 of 18+ in another distinct 60 NNJ months.  Jan 1964 and Feb 1969 are the only other 18s I experienced there, unless one includes the 1966 blizzard in Baltimore when I was at Hopkins.)

I think March of 56 through the entire winter of 1960-61 (well December through 2/4) solidified our snow hunger.

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think March of 56 through the entire winter of 1960-61 (well December through 2/4) solidified our snow hunger.

Mar '56 to your generation was what Dec '92 was to mine (or maybe Mar '93 for those who got shafted in '92)...."The Big one that broke the snow drought" for each generation of kid snow weenies.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think March of 56 through the entire winter of 1960-61 (well December through 2/4) solidified our snow hunger.

And my above story failed to mention the 12" on 4/8/56 that bent over lots of the smaller trees that had escaped the Jan. 1953 ice storm, and the 12" surprise (forecast ranged from 1-3" to RA) on 3/23/1961.  Most fell in 3 hours and it's the one time I walked the 5 miles from HS, along with 8-10 friends who also quickly tired of waiting for buses that might never arrive. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar '56 to your generation was what Dec '92 was to mine (or maybe Mar '93 for those who got shafted in '92)...."The Big one that broke the snow drought" for each generation of kid snow weenies.

March ‘93 was what kicked of the snowy epoch (as I call it) for me, however I was located in upstate NY at the time.   For many ‘96 kicked off the snowy epoch, and I was relocated to NYC by then.  

By the way, there was a relatively big storm I think in Feb 1994...interior.  I don’t hear much about it probably for that reason, but it was not far off from some of the famous ones. 2 feet and wind like hell in some locales IIRC.  Doesn’t get a lot of press probably because it rained at the coast.  Edit. I don’t think it was feb 8-10.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

March ‘93 was what kicked of the snowy epoch (as I call it) for me, however I was located in upstate NY at the time.   For many ‘96 kicked off the snowy epoch, and I was relocated to NYC by then.  

By the way, there was a relatively big storm I think in Feb 1994...interior.  I don’t hear much about it probably for that reason, but it was not far off from some of the famous ones. 2 feet and wind like hell in some locales IIRC.  Doesn’t get a lot of press probably because it rained at the coast.  Edit. I don’t think it was feb 8-10.  

 

You might be thinking of 3/3/94. Massive interior storm. We got about 13-14” in ORH  with big wind. Lot of rain for the big cities after some front end snow....though I believe BOS had decent snow (8”+) with some rain/sleet at the height. 

But the true jackpot was back into interior PA and central NY where 2 feet fell. 

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might be thinking of 3/3/94. Massive interior storm. We got about 13-14” in ORH  with big wind. Lot of rain for the big cities after some front end snow....though I believe BOS had decent snow (8”+) with some rain/sleet at the height. 

But the true jackpot was back into interior PA and central NY where 2 feet fell. 

Thats it.  My parents have photos with date stamps that I’ll check.  I remember seeing the pictures and saying wait...that’s got to be ‘93 not ‘94. 

[Fozz]

For me, it was 2002-03 and especially PDII that really got me going with my interest in winter weather. I was too young in 1996.

[CoastalWx]

I know 10 miles to my East would nominate Feb ‘94 as the big one....but I would say Jan 96’ finally broke the cherry, but 3-31 to 4-1 1997 was the true definition of just all out awe. I’m not sure I’ll ever see something like that again. Hours and hours of whiteout snow with pink TSSN bursts. 

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the -PDO is a match but the QBO is different. NOAA just issued a Niña advisory and it looks like this thing may peak at moderate strength come December. The models keep getting stronger with the peak. 

 

interesting. wasn't cosgrove just recently hyping that it would NOT be a weak Nina, but rather cold neutral? Now we are already talking possible moderate?