Winter 2020-2021

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The "good" in the 1980s was mostly in the far north.  The 1980s were Farmington co-op's worst for snow with 73.5" average compared to the long-term average of 90".  1979-80 and 80-81 are 2nd lowest and lowest snowfall winters they've recorded.  For 79-80 thru 84-85, my last 6 winters in Fort Kent, they recorded an average of 68"/year while I measured 127"/yr.  If I (or some Methuselah) had recorded Fort Kent at my locations there from 1893 on, their average would probably be about 120" compared to Farmington's 90.

 

Another interesting new england tidbit I didnt realize...the loathing of the 1980s. I was born in 1983 so my recollection of the 80s is not much, but looking at stats the winters were actually pretty decent here. 1981-82 was great, 1982-83 was awful, then the next 5 winters had above avg snow, and some good cold snaps.  Im guessing the 80s were very clipper friendly based on the excess of light to moderate snowfalls but not really a lot of heavy snow falls.  The period of Winter's here I would not want to ever relive would be the 1930s through 1950s. The 1940s are by far the worst decade for snow here, but id say the '30s were even worse for overall mild and bare.

[8611Blizz]

Yeah it's a bit of misnomer to say the "80's sucked" for winter weather. The truth is the winter sucked for about 13 years around here (79-92).  It did make the winter of 92-93 all the more amazing though.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another interesting new england tidbit I didnt realize...the loathing of the 1980s. I was born in 1983 so my recollection of the 80s is not much, but looking at stats the winters were actually pretty decent here. 1981-82 was great, 1982-83 was awful, then the next 5 winters had above avg snow, and some good cold snaps.  Im guessing the 80s were very clipper friendly based on the excess of light to moderate snowfalls but not really a lot of heavy snow falls.  The period of Winter's here I would not want to ever relive would be the 1930s through 1950s. The 1940s are by far the worst decade for snow here, but id say the '30s were even worse for overall mild and bare.

1930s were pretty terrible here too though there were a couple blockbusters mixed in (like ‘33-‘34). Some of our warmest winter months are in the 1930s. The early 1950s were horrific too. 

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, cny rider said:

I remember it well because my wife was attending a conference at Stowe.

We spent a fortune, bundled up 3 kids for a 4 day trip, and had the worst conditions we've ever seen.  I mean worst conditions for any outdoor human activity, not just skiing.

 

Ha, yeah I remember not even being able to walk around my house or take the dog out without those crampon/tracks you wear over your boots, same idea as chains over car tires.

Just inches of clear ice as ground cover.

[WarrenCtyWx]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can include the first 3 winters of the 1990s in the bad period of the 1980s....and also 1978-1979/1979-1980. 78-79 was probably decent in NNE but it was utter trash in SNE. Rain/cold/whiff/rain/cold pattern.

For ORH, there were 3 above average winters (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987) for snowfall and two near-average winters (1987-1988 and 1982-1983) in the 14 year period. But the clunkers were pretty bad. The freeze/thaw cycles were e bad in 1984-1985 and 1985-1986. Add onto that 4 consecutive garbage winters from 1988-89 through 1991-92 (you could argue 1989-90 wasn’t THAT bad), it’s not a fond set of memories. 

February 1979 was pretty huge in the Mid Atlantic. It also had some incredible cold. Probably one of the most underrated cold periods.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

February 1979 was pretty huge in the Mid Atlantic. It also had some incredible cold. Probably one of the most underrated cold periods.

Very cold winter in New England as well but SNE missed the Feb 79 storm...whiffed to the south. They had some rainers in January where NNE got snow/sleet so the winter was largely a bust here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

We did have that big event early January in ‘86  ‘SYZYGY’ storm because it  coincided with that particular celestial event. We had 18” in Acton .. seemed to favor Middlesex and eastern Worcester Co for those bigger numbers ... 9” to15” otherwise. 

It was an impressive storm but it left some on the table because it lasted almost 30 hours yet it didn’t put down tremendously huge snow totals for the duration.  I was in Rockport mass having decided to go to the coast to watch the surf and it was very impressive in that regard ... foisting rocks onto shore roads with bomb like sea foam explosions rising over roof tops.  Course only 1 to 3 inches fell out there but the drama of the sea was a calculated trade off

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

1930s were pretty terrible here too though there were a couple blockbusters mixed in (like ‘33-‘34). Some of our warmest winter months are in the 1930s. The early 1950s were horrific too. 

Same here. The 1950s are the warmest or 2nd warmest winters for the entire period of record for many cities I have looked up in the Eastern half of the country.  Snow wise the 50s did better then the 1930s though here. The 1930s actually had a few good snowstorms but most of the winters as a whole we're just not good.  1936-37 is the least snowy Winter on record for Detroit with only 12.9" of snow. That it is also the least snowy Winter on record for Boston with 9.0", and even more interestingly for Boston, 4.4" of that 9.0" came in November.  The warmth of the winters of 1931-32 or 1881-82 has actually not even been challenged here.

[Snowy Hibbo]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just out of curiosity, what makes you say this looks like a modoki La Niña? It looks like a basin-wide event to me for sure, not so sure about it looking modoki though. The new CANSIPS would agree with a stronger La Niña: 

 

Certainly at this very moment, it looks basinwide, but the forecasts I am seeing for winter and base my preliminary analysis upon (specifically EC) are looking at a more CP Nina (cooling shifts away from ENSO 1+2).

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very cold winter in New England as well but SNE missed the Feb 79 storm...whiffed to the south. They had some rainers in January where NNE got snow/sleet so the winter was largely a bust here. 

Jan-Feb 1979 were freaky in Ft. Kent for the extremes.  In 10 Januarys there we had 5 days with minima above 32 and all were in '79.  We also had 5 mornings at -39 or below (6th place is -37) and 3 were in that same month.  PWM had 62.4" of snow that month, most for any month, and their 2nd biggest event- 27.1" - came on Jan 17-18.  On the 17th my max-min touched -47.  I'd been at our company's camp just across from St.-Pamphile, PQ and it was "only" -40 there.  At home my wife noted that the red alcohol on the indoor-outdoor was well below the -40 bottom of the scale but the max-min on the detached garage measured down to -60 and so caught the record.  PWM had 6.8" on Jan 25-26 and 8.6" on 30-31 while Ft. Kent had rain and mid-30s with catpaws.  Finally snowed a bit on 2/1 as temps gradually slid downward.  Feb 10-17 never got above -2.  The wind on those 8 days never quit, which kept the mornings from dropping below -22 but at times the wind was such that one could not face it without tearing up, and first blink froze the eyelids together - "walk backward" days.  Then March was nearly snow-free.

The early '50s were awful in NNJ though they included the Jan 1953 ice storm that jump-started my interest in both weather and trees.  The 24" storm of March 18-19, 1956 was a revelation after 5 winters w/o anything above maybe 8".

[uncle W]

the winter of 1949-50 to March 1956 was the worst snow drought in NYC weather history...

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Certainly at this very moment, it looks basinwide, but the forecasts I am seeing for winter and base my preliminary analysis upon (specifically EC) are looking at a more CP Nina (cooling shifts away from ENSO 1+2).

Heh... it depends on how much 'memory' the immensely diverse pieces of the total climate puzzle are operating with ... 

Any moderate anomaly, warm or cool ...could easily be smothered under the last 20 to arguable 40 years of hockey-stick climate change.   We can't sustain the latter and expect comparatively minute changes in ENSO to mean as much ... maybe?  But it doesn't seem to fit basic assumptions about momentum and so forth.  If so, it's probably not so much the modulating influence of ENSO, but the total systemic change may be driving the ENSO change and concurrent - by virtue of the same driving/governance - would there also represent some form of atmospheric change.  

Personally I think the ENSO is meaningless ... as it is burried snugly inside a Hadely Cell that has expanded in the last 20 years ... beyond the reach where the ENSO band ( only 15 latitu N/S of the eq) can really physically interact with the westerlies ..thus impose a physical forcing - ...but we'll see.   I bet if we get a bona fide NINA like circulation eddy it would be coincidence more so - but almost impossible to separate in the knee jerk assumption tsunamis -

[michsnowfreak]

Sounds like the 1950s were really bad on the East Coast. They were definitely subpar here,  but the 1930s and 1940s were a far worse snow drought. "Winters were worse when I was a kid" has been a line used by old timers for centuries. It just boggles my mind that the "old timers" who grew up between the 1930s-50s could ever say that. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sounds like the 1950s were really bad on the East Coast. They were definitely subpar here,  but the 1930s and 1940s were a far worse snow drought. "Winters were worse when I was a kid" has been a line used by old timers for centuries. It just boggles my mind that the "old timers" who grew up between the 1930s-50s could ever say that. 

I think the 40s winters as a whole were pretty average in the east.

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sounds like the 1950s were really bad on the East Coast. They were definitely subpar here,  but the 1930s and 1940s were a far worse snow drought. "Winters were worse when I was a kid" has been a line used by old timers for centuries. It just boggles my mind that the "old timers" who grew up between the 1930s-50s could ever say that. 

It was mostly the early 1950s....at least over SNE....1955-1956 seemed to break the bad stretch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/6/2020 at 2:59 PM, uncle W said:

some winter forecasts last year were spectacular failures...the pessimism for next winter is high...to me the enso forecast looks like 2005 and 1995...1959 if la nina doesn't develop...I'm just talking oni numbers and not a winter forecast weatherwise...all three of those years had a major snowstorm in the northeast...I can see a fast start to winter but a long mild period before the next good pattern sets in...its three more months before reality hits us good or bad...

I don't disagree with this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/7/2020 at 10:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

We did have that big event early January in ‘86  ‘SYZYGY’ storm because it  coincided with that particular celestial event. We had 18” in Acton .. seemed to favor Middlesex and eastern Worcester Co for those bigger numbers ... 9” to15” otherwise. 

It was an impressive storm but it left some on the table because it lasted almost 30 hours yet it didn’t put down tremendously huge snow totals for the duration.  I was in Rockport mass having decided to go to the coast to watch the surf and it was very impressive in that regard ... foisting rocks onto shore roads with bomb like sea foam explosions rising over roof tops.  Course only 1 to 3 inches fell out there but the drama of the sea was a calculated trade off

I think you mean January 1987....

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/7/2020 at 11:15 PM, Snowy Hibbo said:

Certainly at this very moment, it looks basinwide, but the forecasts I am seeing for winter and base my preliminary analysis upon (specifically EC) are looking at a more CP Nina (cooling shifts away from ENSO 1+2).

That is bad news...you always want the cool anomalies in the eastern regions, regardless of ENSO.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you mean January 1987....

yeah...I suppose .. 

It's hard to find very many write ups about that one without digging thru back-paged web searches .. more so than I care to do.  But at the time, it was considered a pretty big deal. It was called "The SYZYGY STORM" storm storm

It may just be relative to era; as we've lamented about the 1980s in yore ... thus having a 12-18" snow lopped over a CF fist leading an arm of 55 to 60 mph, cold conveyor gusting in from NE during that particular pathos?  It would by acclimation be huge. In fact, it may have been the biggest interior-east event in SNE since 1978 considering those dearth years.  I'm not sure though...I think there was a freak early April blizzard back in 1982 ... '84?  god, me and dates: can't remember 'em; can't get 'em 

Anyway, it was also before the climate started changing and we began handing out 12+" snow events like Pez candies.  You know I think we've even endured posts over the last 8 years where someone got 15" amidst a 20" pancake event and called the thing a bust?   ... It's like wow - how quickly folks get entitled.  Lol -

This may sound hypocritical to that but ...I think this "up era" that we've been enjoying is different than it's predecessors though.  We are definitively and incontrovertibly involved in a climate change that has been both predicted by modeling, and empirically shown, to be hosting increased PWAT - and having exaggerated snow results relative to storm frequency and intensity ( that italic is the whole thing! ) is being missed by many as a separate distinguishing ordeal.  

In other words, a dearth winter era in this climate may have more precipitation by virtue of the warming atmosphere and increased PWAT going forward ... interesting. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...I suppose .. 

It's hard to find very many write ups about that one without digging thru back-paged web searches .. more so than I care to do.  But at the time, it was considered a pretty big deal. It was called "The SYZYGY STORM" storm storm

It may just be relative to era; as we've lamented about the 1980s in yore ... thus having a 12-18" snow lopped over a CF fist leading an arm of 55 to 60 mph, cold conveyor gusting in from NE during that particular pathos?  It would by acclimation be huge. In fact, it may have been the biggest interior-east event in SNE since 1978 considering those dearth years.  I'm not sure though...I think there was a freak early April blizzard back in 1982 ... '84?  god, me and dates: can't remember 'em; can't get 'em 

Anyway, it was also before the climate started changing and we began handing out 12+" snow events like Pez candies.  You know I think we've even endured posts over the last 8 years where someone got 15" amidst a 20" pancake event and called the thing a bust?   ... It's like wow - how quickly folks get entitled.  Lol -

This may sound hypocritical to that but ...I think this "up era" that we've been enjoying is different than it's predecessors though.  We are definitively and incontrovertibly involved in a climate change that has been both predicted by modeling, and empirically shown, to be hosting increased PWAT - and having exaggerated snow results relative to storm frequency and intensity ( that italic is the whole thing! ) is being missed by many as a separate distinguishing ordeal.  

In other words, a dearth winter era in this climate may have more precipitation by virtue of the warming atmosphere and increased PWAT going forward ... interesting. 

 

The Syzygy storm was 1/2/87

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/7/2020 at 2:10 PM, J.Spin said:

People are constantly bemoaning the winters of the 1980s in this forum, so I finally decided to take a look into what went on around here in NVT.  It really seems as though there’s some sort of local bias coming into play with regard to that decade.  I don’t remember the winters being especially “unwintry”, and that was in the Champlain Valley, where snowfall and snowpack are far less consistent than out in the local mountains.

Some of my most vivid memories from that era are of hating with a passion the brutal cold and wind that would plague us as we’d make our way the roughly ¼ mile to the bus stop each day.  There was no shelter where we had to stand, and we’d do our best to sort of huddle behind the sign marking the entrance to our neighborhood to attempt to get at least a slight respite from the brutal weather.  That’s easily chalked up to recall bias based on how painful those days were, and even above average is still quite cold in winter here, but that, not a lack of winter, is what immediately comes to the fore when I think of the winter weather in the 80s.

Average annual snowfall at BTV for the 1980s is 71.62” vs. the long-term average of 72.8”, so it would be surprising if there was any statistically significant difference between them.  And for the 1982-1987 stretch you mentioned above, the average annual snowfall is 77.7”, so that really doesn’t speak to overtly painful winters for a winter weather enthusiast unless there was some sort of outrageous variability that’s not apparent in the data without some further digging.

Based on the other NNE-related numbers and comments that I’m seeing in the thread, it’s starting to look like the issues for winter weather enthusiasts in the 1980s might have been more localized?

Uh.. ye- perhaps .. I guess?  

I was being particular to SNE.   I lived here in the 1980s and my butt is still sore and am still in counseling - 

There was a one event in  January of 1986 or 1987 ... actually there were a couple spanning the 1985 to 1990 time span that did this, where eastern Massachusetts and abutting SE NH were all placed securely and snuggly inside Blizzard watch,  4th period... with NWS tickers running across the bottom of screen speaking of power outages and damaging winds in white out snow... The gaiety and good moods this inspired would have made heroine envious - 

 

 

                         ... nothing

One of them was not only partly sunny come go time, but boy lemme tell you, the -9 F cryo- wind prior to this modern culture of canceling everything under the sun over flurries ... really made it!  Blistering-blackening faces when walking in mocking quiescence that was supposed to be a week off from school with n-guard snow throwers coming down streets ... Never forgave Walter for that - lol.  

Something kept happening ... it may have been the state of the art of modeling in that era, but D4 to 7 always had storms too far NW coming off the mid Atlantic.. I can think of a few plausible reasons for why... Be it too much ridging in the western Atlantic.  Overly proficiently phasing streams... etc... all these can cause storms to error too far NW.  Either way there was a string of busts that were peculiarly similar ..  amid the other storm types... 

Not all storms failed in that era.  There was one positive bust that was pretty special. ...early February in '86 I think.  We had a forecast for 1-3" of glop/cold light rain going to drizzle.  About 1pm it was 19 F with tiny uniform aggregates polluting the air down to 1/4 vis and I looked at my math teacher, who knew I was a weather dweeb, and she arched her eyebrows slightly and said, " I don't think that's turning to rain.."     About 6"'s later and choking down at a 1/32 of a mi clip ...amid blue flash swashes leading chest echoing thunder claps, they closed the slopes on Nashoba Valley because of the lightning threat ... I was in the parking lot watching ... actually, 'listening' for my ride to show up, as IP started mixing in...  It never really changed to sleet... it sort got half way and visibility came up to 1/2 mi, but it would collapse back to snow and be down to 1/4 mi again... It finally ended as freezing drizzle over a fresh foot of snow around 8pm that night.   My old man's commute home from work was 6 hours to get from Arlington Heights to Acton out along Rt 2...  It's normally about 22 minutes. 

I had not seen a bust that prolific for snow since an obscure event in western Michigan not worth mentioning... and didn't see another positive bust so extreme until 1997 ..10 years later. On December 23rd, came the snow-bomb storm.   Man... similar situation from a lay-consumer of forecasting though.  1-3" of wet snow and cold light rain... Didn't get the thunderstorm but, we got 7" of snow in back to back hours, book ended by 2-4" per hour snow rates... and in 5 or 6 hours, put down 18" in Acton...and something like 26" up here in Pepperil Mass...  

Ah...man... may never see that kind of reach around savior again... 

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I think the 40s winters as a whole were pretty average in the east.

For whatever reason the 1940s were just terrible for snowfall here, although it was actually colder than either the 1930s or 1950s and despite the meager snowfall, days with snowcover was right around average. The 1930s had a few good snowstorms as well as a few cold, white winters, but for the most part the winters were very "open" (i.e. bare ground).  We actually had a very snowy Winter in 1951-52, the first winter to feature well above avg snowfall in 22 years! We were then immediately punished by a very "open", mild Winter in 1952-53 with very meager snowfall.  The rest of the '50s were ok, but another very meager snow year in 1957-58 (a year that was good for the east).  Out in the plains some of the dust bowl winters were extremely snowless.  Basically, it really depends what area you live in for local circumstances but the bottom line is pretty much every area had some very lean times in the mid 20th century.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

For whatever reason the 1940s were just terrible for snowfall here, although it was actually colder than either the 1930s or 1950s and despite the meager snowfall, days with snowcover was right around average. The 1930s had a few good snowstorms as well as a few cold, white winters, but for the most part the winters were very "open" (i.e. bare ground).  We actually had a very snowy Winter in 1951-52, the first winter to feature well above avg snowfall in 22 years! We were then immediately punished by a very "open", mild Winter in 1952-53 with very meager snowfall.  The rest of the '50s were ok, but another very meager snow year in 1957-58 (a year that was good for the east).  Out in the plains some of the dust bowl winters were extremely snowless.  Basically, it really depends what area you live in for local circumstances but the bottom line is pretty much every area had some very lean times in the mid 20th century.

The 1940s were kickass here in Toronto. We averaged ~55" that decade which is 10" above our seasonal average. A couple winters that really stand out; 

1940-41: 64.3"

1942-43: 72.6"

1944-45: 97.6"  << YYZ lowballed this winter lol 

1946-47: 76.7"

1949-50: 77.3" 

That 1944-45 winter featured a 26" storm which is a top 5 storm. Just based on analytics, I wouldn't mind a repeat of the 1940s. Only two winters that entire decade were duds.

[CoastalWx]

Toronto only averages 45 inches of snow? That seems really low to me. I get it might not be the synoptic Mecca, but that seems a little low to me.

[raindancewx]

Whoops wrong map.

This is Canadian snowfall - 

https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snowfall_map.pdf

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Seems a little broad brushed. 100-199cm then 200-399cm is a huge range.

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Seems a little broad brushed. 100-199cm then 200-399cm is a huge range.

And what’s with the Commie metric measurements?  C’mon. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

And what’s with the Commie metric measurements?  C’mon. 

Seriously...this is Amerika got dammit...where we use standard. We coined the term, ‘standard’ because it is...standard. 

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Whoops wrong map.

This is Canadian snowfall - 

https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snowfall_map.pdf

Hey, this map is really awful for Atlantic Canada lol. That area from Halifax to south of Yarmouth averages below 200 cm. Interior central and northern Nova Scotia, and northern and eastern NB does not average over 400 cm, the only place that probably would is the "mountains" of central/northern New Brunswick. Saguenay, Quebec, Rimouski, and Gaspe all average under 400 cm. Some of the mountains of Western Newfoundland probably average just over 800 cm. 

[raindancewx]

My guess is the map is based on 1961-90 averages given the date listed at the bottom. But it is big and fairly detailed. I just assumed SE Canada would be somewhat lower in a more recent period. But there actually aren't a lot of good maps of Canadian snowfall out there from what I've seen.