Winter 2020-2021

[brentrich]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

So what are the most realistic analogs for this coming winter? 

Nov 2020 to May 2021 winter will be similar to this (Feb 2015)     

[ORH_wxman]

Weak La Nina is probably the most likely...followed by cold-neutral...Going back to 1970:

 

2017-2018 (weak Nina)

2016-2017 (weak Nina)

2013-2014 (cold neutral)

2008-2009 (weak Nina)

2005-2006 (weak Nina)

2000-2001 (weak Nina)

1996-1997 (cold neutral)

1995-1996 (weak Nina)

1985-1986 (cold neutral)

1983-1984 (weak Nina)

1974-1975 (weak Nina)

1971-1972 (weak Nina)

 

It seems this year is trying to trend more toward -PDO which we have had trouble attaining in recent years after the extremely deep -PDO years from 2007-2013. Don't get me wrong, this year is not like the deep -PDO years such as 2008-2009, however, it doesn't look like the 2013-2014, 1995-1996, or 1980s type years either. Could be something in-between more like 2017-2018, 2005-2006, or 2000-2001...or 1974-1975 where we had mildly -PDOs that maybe briefly popped neutral or positive for a month or so.

 

[ORH_wxman]

This year is pretty much at the bottom of the solar cycle too....so if we try and filter for that amongst our remaining years, you get 1974-1975 and 2017-2018 which wasn't at the bottom but both were descending pretty close to it.

Other near-solar min winters were 2008-2009, 1995-1996, and 1985-1986.

 

Again, not much similarity between any of those.

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weak La Nina is probably the most likely...followed by cold-neutral...Going back to 1970:

 

2017-2018 (weak Nina)

2016-2017 (weak Nina)

2013-2014 (cold neutral)

2008-2009 (weak Nina)

2005-2006 (weak Nina)

2000-2001 (weak Nina)

1996-1997 (cold neutral)

1995-1996 (weak Nina)

1985-1986 (cold neutral)

1983-1984 (weak Nina)

1974-1975 (weak Nina)

1971-1972 (weak Nina)

 

It seems this year is trying to trend more toward -PDO which we have had trouble attaining in recent years after the extremely deep -PDO years from 2007-2013. Don't get me wrong, this year is not like the deep -PDO years such as 2008-2009, however, it doesn't look like the 2013-2014, 1995-1996, or 1980s type years either. Could be something in-between more like 2017-2018, 2005-2006, or 2000-2001...or 1974-1975 where we had mildly -PDOs that maybe briefly popped neutral or positive for a month or so.

 

I would take that analog list mean any day all day here. I don't care to repeat the torchy midwinters of 2005-06 or 2016-17, but even they featured lots of holiday season snow.  Definitely not a fan of 1995-96 (cold/dry but I know that's an East favorite) or 1971-72. Every other Winter on the list featured a much harsher Winter than average.  Just curious, which ones on that list would a New Englander not care to repeat?

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This year is pretty much at the bottom of the solar cycle too....so if we try and filter for that amongst our remaining years, you get 1974-1975 and 2017-2018 which wasn't at the bottom but both were descending pretty close to it.

Other near-solar min winters were 2008-2009, 1995-1996, and 1985-1986.

 

Again, not much similarity between any of those.

My next blog will start getting more into the particulars of the weak la nina composite years.

I am very confident we weak nina....highly doubt cold-neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would take that analog list mean any day all day here. I don't care to repeat the torchy midwinters of 2005-06 or 2016-17, but even they featured lots of holiday season snow.  Definitely not a fan of 1995-96 (cold/dry but I know that's an East favorite) or 1971-72. Every other Winter on the list featured a much harsher Winter than average.  Just curious, which ones on that list would a New Englander not care to repeat?

Here is my insanely preliminary weak la nina composite....only sorted by ENSO, at this point.

 

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would take that analog list mean any day all day here. I don't care to repeat the torchy midwinters of 2005-06 or 2016-17, but even they featured lots of holiday season snow.  Definitely not a fan of 1995-96 (cold/dry but I know that's an East favorite) or 1971-72. Every other Winter on the list featured a much harsher Winter than average.  Just curious, which ones on that list would a New Englander not care to repeat?

2005-2006 was pretty cruddy, though some areas of SNE did pretty well, esp in CT....NNE not so much. I wouldn't hate that winter, but not exactly routing for it.

1985-1986 was pretty crappy too for a good chunk of New England...parts of NNE...esp VT...did well that winter, but a lot of cold/rainer/cold/rainer type pattern that year. I think we'd take almost any other winter on there....maybe not 1974-1975....esp coastal SNE, though the interior did ok.

[dryslot]

Out of all those years that Will listed and i only have from 2013-14 back, PWM had what i would consider 4 duds out of 10 in the 40-50" range of those winters, 1995-96 being the best with 123" with the rest in the 80-90" range.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2005-2006 was pretty cruddy, though some areas of SNE did pretty well, esp in CT....NNE not so much. I wouldn't hate that winter, but not exactly routing for it.

1985-1986 was pretty crappy too for a good chunk of New England...parts of NNE...esp VT...did well that winter, but a lot of cold/rainer/cold/rainer type pattern that year. I think we'd take almost any other winter on there....maybe not 1974-1975....esp coastal SNE, though the interior did ok.

Those years were 3-4 duds for PWM.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would take that analog list mean any day all day here. I don't care to repeat the torchy midwinters of 2005-06 or 2016-17, but even they featured lots of holiday season snow.  Definitely not a fan of 1995-96 (cold/dry but I know that's an East favorite) or 1971-72. Every other Winter on the list featured a much harsher Winter than average.  Just curious, which ones on that list would a New Englander not care to repeat?

2005-06 definitely, my 2nd lowest snowfall of 22 winters here and less than 8" after Jan 31.  83-84 and 85-86 were mostly meh where I am now, though 83-84 had a cold March with a 23" snowstorm and that winter we lived in northern Maine and the March storm dumped 26.5", biggest snowfall I've experienced and brought the pack to 65", also tops.  The other 9 averaged 104" compared to the nearby co-op's 90" average.  Weak ENSO in either direction averages AN for snow here though La Nada is about average.

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2005-2006 was pretty cruddy, though some areas of SNE did pretty well, esp in CT....NNE not so much. I wouldn't hate that winter, but not exactly routing for it.

1985-1986 was pretty crappy too for a good chunk of New England...parts of NNE...esp VT...did well that winter, but a lot of cold/rainer/cold/rainer type pattern that year. I think we'd take almost any other winter on there....maybe not 1974-1975....esp coastal SNE, though the interior did ok.

 I have almost the exact same thoughts about 2005-06. Thanksgiving to Christmas was pretty much a non stop courier & ives scene, so regardless of anything else I cannot say no to that. But after new years the Winter flat out sucked. 1974-75 was a good example of a mild Winter that was not short on snow here. We had 2 unusually huge snowstorms in Southeast Michigan. December 1st saw 18 to 20" fall in the immediate Detroit area and April 2nd saw similar amounts fall closer to Flint.  1985-86 does not look like anything memorable but considering the above average snowfall I'm guessing it was quite a clipper parade.

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

2005-06 definitely, my 2nd lowest snowfall of 22 winters here and less than 8" after Jan 31.  83-84 and 85-86 were mostly meh where I am now, though 83-84 had a cold March with a 23" snowstorm and that winter we lived in northern Maine and the March storm dumped 26.5", biggest snowfall I've experienced and brought the pack to 65", also tops.  The other 9 averaged 104" compared to the nearby co-op's 90" average.  Weak ENSO in either direction averages AN for snow here though La Nada is about average.

That stat after January 31, 2006 must be incredible for your area. It was kind of similar here.  After white ground from Thanksgiving to New Year's, I had only 4 days with 1"+ snow on the ground in January. To this day I have never seen a more "bare" January before or after.  Feb at least had around a 10 day stretch of white ground early to mid month but even then it was a disappointment because it was around 2 or 3" in depth after the failed superbowl storm which was originally supposed to drop 6 to 10".

 

I was only 12 during the Winter of 1995-96 so thank goodness I really wasn't paying as much attention to what was going on around me lol. When I look back it was an absolutely ridiculous screw zone in a stripe from Chicago to Detroit. Seeing the heavy snow in both the upper Midwest and the East Coast makes me feel a little better about that analog. 

 

That's why I like to get a sense of how strong analog winters played out in the Midwest to the northeast as a whole because obviously no analog will be exactly repeated. Screw zones will happen any year, but if large areas had good Winters that's a good sign of an active winter this year in my opinion. The aforementioned duds are far outweighed by good times

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my insanely preliminary weak la nina composite....only sorted by ENSO, at this point.

Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. 

I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now. 

[Torch Tiger]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. 

I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now. 

You won't get unbiased LR forecasts from snow-lovers, no matter the pedigree. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my insanely preliminary weak la nina composite....only sorted by ENSO, at this point.

 

Looks like the QBO has finally decided to make up its mind, it jumped up to +4.78 last month and has been slowly rising since May. Would assume a +QBO winter at this point....

[J.Spin]

23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I always love popping into this thread early because they seem to be the 1st sub to start a Winter thread. The lakes forum waits until like October.

They’d probably start the thread early regardless, but I find it helpful because the first touches of winter can start quite early in the mountains of NNE.  Heck, as Phin alerted us, the Whites already had sub-freezing temperatures and rime back at the end of August more than a week ago.  Yeah, the focus at this point is often on the overall pattern potential for the season, but they’ll touch on the early stuff as well, which can actually mean enough snow in the mountains to get out for turns.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I really can’t even process that.

I’ll have to look up April 2000 at ALB (I think that’s the year)...I remember shorts and t-shirts playing soccer in maybe 70F on a Saturday, then we got 10-14” in the area on Sunday.  But 90F to that is incredible.

*Moved this to the snow discussion thread... but it was borne out of the discussion of the winter storm that will hit the front range out west.  Discussion of hot days to snowy days.  This was the best I can find that I've ever experienced from highs in the mid-70s to 12+ inches of snow the next morning.

Actually looked it up... holy crap, that storm in ALB was pretty impressive.  Also how we were just speaking about surprise storms being rare... this one looks like it was forecast for a couple inches in the higher elevations and instead dropped 12-15" in the ALB area.  76F at 6pm to 39F at 11pm is pretty solid drop.

I mean, this is what we all dream about right?... lol a forecast for a weaker low to pass east off Nantucket that instead at 12 hours lead time turns into a bomb over ORH.

Major Snow Storm
Sunday April 9, 2000

It was perhaps the cruelest twist of weather to affect the region during April 2000.  A spectacular mid 70 degree day preceded the largest snowfall of the entire winter season in the Capital Region and the second heaviest all time April snowstorm on record.  As if the snow was not bad enough, the magnitude of the storm came with very little warning.   Forecasts on Saturday, the 8th, for the region had called for a period of rain changing to a brief period of snow through Sunday morning with only a couple of inches of accumulation expected mainly in the higher elevations. 

The front passed Albany at approximately 6pm on the 8th, dropping the temperature from 76 at 6pm to 57 degrees at 6:15pm to 50 degrees at 7:30pm and to 39 degrees at 11pm.

At this point in the forecast, it was anticipated that the cold front would continue to be progressive in nature and the storm that had formed over western South Carolina would be weaker and move much further east, off of Nantucket by Sunday morning, than what actually occurred. The jet stream disturbance, as it turned out, was much stronger than anticipated and thus was able to bend the main steering flow up the Atlantic seaboard from its southwest to northeast direction on Saturday the 8th, to a more due south to north configuration by early Sunday morning the 9th.   With a due south to north flow, the cold front which had moved through the Capital Region, delivering the very cold air, lost it's atmospheric push to keep it moving east.   With the front now parallel to the upper air flow, it stalled over the Connecticut river valley in west central, MA.  The stalled front then acted as a highway for the Carolina low pressure system to cruise north along and intensify.  And that is exactly what happened.  As the low tracked along the front and grew stronger it induced a stronger northwest airflow over eastern New York which allowed even colder air to move into the region changing the rain over to snow by about 3am on the 9th.  The low then transported a hefty slug of Atlantic moisture over the cold dome over New York which translated into a period of extremely heavy snow over the Mohawk valley, Adirondacks and Capital Region, as well as western New England well into the afternoon on the 9th.   Snowfall rates exceeded two inches per hour for a time early on Sunday morning.   By 8am on the 9th the storm was located near Worcester, MA producing the blinding snow over the Capital District. The system began to accelerate by midday Sunday, as the parent jet stream disturbance moved out, finally bringing an end to the snowstorm.

[TugHillMatt]

On 9/2/2020 at 5:32 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I always love popping into this thread early because they seem to be the 1st sub to start a Winter thread. The lakes forum waits until like October.

Yeah, if you posted winter talk too early there, you'd get scolded...usually by Stebo or ChiStorm...lol

22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kalamazoo by chance geography seemed to always have brilliant white lake effect CB band NE of the city ... turn around and another band dark gray passing SW  

Training snow bands aligned such that kz was splitting the goal post.  
 

The best lake affect snow at that city’s location was when the air mass got super cold and everybody ended up in that kind of misting low vis crystal froth within an entire radar scope having tiny corpuscular nodes amid a level one green smear. 15F

That pretty much sounds like Kalamazoo! It is often one of the warmest cities during the winter as well. When those warm fronts go through, Kalamazoo temp seems to rise rapidly...often with some dense fogs.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First shots in the annual SNE weenie vs NNE weenie war? 

Scott really likes when they track over PWM.........

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First shots in the annual SNE weenie vs NNE weenie war? 

Ha, the Berks and Litchfield did really well in that storm.  I look at it not NNE vs SNE, but WNE vs ENE .

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Scott really likes when they track over PWM.........

It’s just climo unfortunately.  Everyone has their tracks.  Though I wish we could sign up for Dec 5-6 2003 all the time... 18” for Scooter and 18” up here... 8”+ for the whole forum pretty much.

If only we could do this type of widespread dump all the time:

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s just climo unfortunately.  Everyone has their tracks.  Though I wish we could sign up for Dec 5-6 2003 all the time... 18” for Scooter and 18” up here... 8”+ for the whole forum pretty much.

If only we could do this type of widespread dump all the time:

Those are quite rare, Usually someone is stealing the snow from somebody else.............

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First shots in the annual SNE weenie vs NNE weenie war? 

A low tracking over ORH is a shit track for just about all of New England outside of like N Maine. Maybe N VT  does good depending on how tilted it is and in a few rare cases if the storm is really tightly wound, the Berkshires or taconics might do ok. 

[Torch Tiger]

Dec 2003 had around 25" in Canton, MA. Overperformed iirc

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A low tracking over ORH is a shit track for just about all of New England outside of like N Maine. Maybe N VT  does good depending on how tilted it is and in a few rare cases if the storm is really tightly wound, the Berkshires or taconics might do ok. 

That particular one had warning snow amounts in Litchfield/Berkshire/Bennington counties...but the set up was a low moving along a stalled front, those seem to be tighter because you have that strong gradient already in place.

Same thing in March 2011 when a strong low tracked over ORH and dropped 27” here in Stowe...it went along a frontal boundary.  

But yeah not many in New England were too stoked with us getting feet while it’s 56F in ORH.  That’s usually a BGM-BTV-CAR type jackpot.  Obviously for someone who’s lived in ALB area and then up to NVT, I’ve had a few really fun ones with that track.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m sick looking at that image.

Yeah it’s crazy the variability in New England...that image might be my largest snowstorm this decade.

We are definitely an island up here in NW New England in the sense of the forum.  Need Dec 2003 style storms like I said, ha.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That particular one had warning snow amounts in Litchfield/Berkshire/Bennington counties...but the set up was a low moving along a stalled front, those seem to be tighter because you have that strong gradient already in place.

Same thing in March 2011 when a strong low tracked over ORH and dropped 27” here in Stowe...it went along a frontal boundary.  

But yeah not many in New England were too stoked with us getting feet while it’s 56F in ORH.  That’s usually a BGM-BTV-CAR type jackpot.  Obviously for someone who’s lived in ALB area and then up to NVT, I’ve had a few really fun ones with that track.

 

Yeah you need a really tight gradient to get snow in W MA out of an ORH track. That’s like saying a track over scooters fanny is perfect for ORH...which we know it isn’t. But occasionally there will be one that is great that hugs the coast in MA (like Dec 1996 or even 12/9/05) that slams ORH to S NH. 

The tilt matters a lot. Vday 2007 had the sfc low over ACK but it jackpotted E NY and VT because the mid level centers were tilted quite a bit NW. Xmas 2005 had the sfc low over interior E MA but it jackpotted CAR to north of YUL and had mostly rain in N VT because that midlevel centers were initially flooding warm air pretty far north before tightening up over ORH to PWM...but by then it was too late to really take advantage unless you were in Canada to far N Maine. 

 

Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

[PhineasC]

Randolph received 15" from that March 2011 storm. I'd take it. Sorry ORH.  

[PhineasC]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s crazy the variability in New England...that image might be my largest snowstorm this decade.

We are definitely an island up here in NW New England in the sense of the forum.  Need Dec 2003 style storms like I said, ha.

It's like that everywhere. In the MA forum, I used to torment the posters from central and northern VA because when they turn to sleet it means I am getting hammered with snow.

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you need a really tight gradient to get snow in W MA out of an ORH track. That’s like saying a track over scooters fanny is perfect for ORH...which we know it isn’t. But occasionally there will be one that is great that hugs the coast in MA (like Dec 1996 or even 12/9/05) that slams ORH to S NH. 

The tilt matters a lot. Vday 2007 had the sfc low over ACK but it jackpotted E NY and VT because the mid level centers were tilted quite a bit NW. Xmas 2005 had the sfc low over interior E MA but it jackpotted CAR to north of YUL and had mostly rain in N VT because that midlevel centers were initially flooding warm air pretty far north before tightening up over ORH to PWM...but by then it was too late to really take advantage unless you were in Canada to far N Maine. 

 

Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

I didn’t realize 30+ in that one got so far north, looks like probably some mid-level high ratio band from like Rutland to Rangley but that’s a classic NW New England screwjie while SE New England has cars trapped on highways.