Winter 2020-2021

[The 4 Seasons]

I remember when it used to snow, those were the good ole days

[weathafella]

On 8/29/2020 at 5:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

I’ve always felt that. I’m not a snowpack guy. I mean yeah if we have a good pack I’m all for it, but we live for anomalies.

Absolutely!

[Hoth]

10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I remember when it used to snow, those were the good ole days

We've had as many tornadoes as 12" snowfalls in the last five years.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

We've had as many tornadoes than 12" snowfalls in the last five years.

3, 12" snowfalls, 3 tornadoes

Jan 24 2016 - 14

Feb 9 2017 -15

Jan 4 2018 - 12

August 2016 - EF0

May 2018 - EF1

August 2020 - EF1

 

[dryslot]

Snow pack or go home.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

The classic big snow/no retention was 1995-96.  At Gardiner the snow got to 28" deep 2nd week of January then 3 torch deluges cut it back to 5".  In Farmington, 40" went down to 8" - takes some incredible thaws to drop the foothills pack by 32" in January.  Feb saw the Gardiner pack go up to 12" then squash back to just 2.  16" in early March again lifted the depth to 20" and 17 days later it was all gone.  23" in one April week produced only 21 SDDs.  For my 13 winters in Gardiner that winter is 30" snowier than any other but only 5th in SDDs, way behind 86-87, 89-90 and 93-94.  Fun watching the stuff fall, not fun slogging thru the slush a few days later.

Mm... disagree a little .. and this may be subjective - granted.

But, we sustained deep snow here in interior SNE for 45 some days prior to the big thaw at the end of that January.  In the absolute value sense of it, that's a reasonably dated pack.

Bit more conceptualizing: I recall venturing deep into the lawn pack and seeing stratification of layers at 36" inch totals when cutting into that veritable glaciar. Also in muse how that resembled avalanche theory having differential snow types and shearing plains ... That compaction between storms, like tree-rings, obviously has to have retention working with gravity.

Now ...this doesn't discount the talking point, nor its significance in brow-raising factor,  over 10 days of positive departures at the end of January '96 all but destroying it - total if it were not for snow piles in parking lots. There were in fact three cutters in that time frame, the last of which drove 60 F DP clear to the mid els of the White Mountains; particularly how it firehosed the pack down to just piles down here, too.   It was aggravating for my own hang-up on challenging years to snow pack depth thing I get a kick out of ... I was thinking the sky was the limit that year ... but it all crumbled... well, 'melted' is apropos. 

Anyway, I think of bad retention - in the extreme sense - as bear ground between storms.  45 days of stilted pack with stratification records like sedimentary rock ...doesn't really earn a bad grade in all fairness.  And obnoxious thaw, sure - but 'subjectively' for me that's something else. I have seen years where we got near average snow and had a pretty coherent impression in memory of not seeing a lot of persistently white ground.  

[Typhoon Tip]

and no one asked... but I only care about snowpack if that depth record is in reach.  If it's not slated in the pattern/conducive to having a chance, I don't care if snows 20" and melts in two days ... could not care any less.  

Alas! ... retention has an elemental pattern luck to it - it seems... We can have above normal winters ( temperature alone ) and have them be dry, wet, or white given to our latitude - we all know this.  We can have colder than normal winters that are dry ... but at this end of the temperature extremes it's harder to get moisture involved without there being substantive snow - again by virtue of our latitude.  Yes ...rarely, we get stinging toothache cold for merely taking is deep breaths in between a steady diet of rain storms. But in the general scope, a colder than normal DCA winter (for ex.) can still almost not snow because colder than normal for them is of course still well above freezing ..etc.  

Anyway,  if there's a big snow event, then a cold snap at the end... then out there in the extended, there's some sort of baroclinic bulge formulating over the Missouri Valley with lingering -10 C at 850 mb over the OV and NE ... and yet further out in time, another cold mass gathering in a lingering +PNAP essense on the charts, it gets interesting quickly.  Particularly in this sort of neo-climate tendency to precipitation more proficiently relative to mechanics ...by its own virtue that warmer air is concomitantly holding more theta-e ( water ) in gaseous form, so that contributes there. As an aside, I can almost imagine study revealing that 10 events of any kind, in aggregate, precipitate more in bucket totals than 10 events in the 1950s -

We do have the benefit of two factors here:    Latitude is  just one; but there is a specific planetary atmospheric physics assisting cold air holding in for events to work in, during winters... Actually ...it retards warm fronts in summer too.  But the topographic effect of higher elevations west creates barrier jets ... but, it's like the physical tendency to do so is a vector in itself, always there, as a 'correction vector'  If the models are physically proficient, then the processing of the models that employ those rules will emerge the barrier jets and the general retarding of warm fronts in warm seasons... And they do vastly better at these aspects than the old/early days of modeling, bring about lesser need to correct.  But, anyway... I'm extolling .. I just mean to say that our geographical feed-back for imposing colder air and helping to retain it, is different than the virtue of latitude alone.   And it matters... Because I have seen it pinging and ZR mixed many, many times at Bennington in VT down to the Capital District of eastern NYS while it is S+ in the Orh Hills... these feedbacks have a way of pulling the entire troposphere down ...and that means the growth region of the precipitating columns are still evacuating down into a critical thickness supporting snow so ... this matters...  Particularly in these dubbed 'SW flow events'... In a winter that is dominated by cutters ... FIT snows more than ALB - or... it may show disproportionately so relative to climatology in comparing those two locations.  

[tamarack]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... disagree a little .. and this may be subjective - granted.

But, we sustained deep snow here in interior SNE for 45 some days prior to the big thaw at the end of that January.  In the absolute value sense of it, that's a reasonably dated pack.

Bit more conceptualizing: I recall venturing deep into the lawn pack and seeing stratification of layers at 36" inch totals when cutting into that veritable glaciar. Also in muse how that resembled avalanche theory having differential snow types and shearing plains ... That compaction between storms, like tree-rings, obviously has to have retention working with gravity.

Now ...this doesn't discount the talking point, nor its significance in brow-raising factor,  over 10 days of positive departures at the end of January '96 all but destroying it - total if it were not for snow piles in parking lots. There were in fact three cutters in that time frame, the last of which drove 60 F DP clear to the mid els of the White Mountains; particularly how it firehosed the pack down to just piles down here, too.   It was aggravating for my own hang-up on challenging years to snow pack depth thing I get a kick out of ... I was thinking the sky was the limit that year ... but it all crumbled... well, 'melted' is apropos. 

Anyway, I think of bad retention - in the extreme sense - as bear ground between storms.  45 days of stilted pack with stratification records like sedimentary rock ...doesn't really earn a bad grade in all fairness.  And obnoxious thaw, sure - but 'subjectively' for me that's something else. I have seen years where we got near average snow and had a pretty coherent impression in memory of not seeing a lot of persistently white ground.  

I can't fault you for disagreeing.  BOX depth reached 31" in Jan 1996 while 150 miles north we never got past 28, as the big KU was a fringe job there.  That was somewhat AN for max depth in Gardiner but peanuts compared to BOX's anomaly.
My "affection" for deep pack was born in my Fort Kent years.  The monster pack in 1961 in NNJ is a strong memory, but that winter was almost the only incidence of significant pow-pow.  Usually the snows fell on bare ground there, or on a bit of whitish crust.  In the years once I became interested in snow records (began about 1956) until moving to BGR in 1973, my area in NNJ averaged 50-55", which is about 15" above the long-term average, and the Feb 1961 storm is the only one that brought a 10"+ storm atop a 10"+ pack.  Even the snowier locations in NW Jersey at 1000+ elevation did that only the one time.  Where I live now it occurs in more than half our snow seasons, even this past BN one though barely - the 10.3" on 3/23-24 fell atop a 10" pack.

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I can't fault you for disagreeing.  BOX depth reached 31" in Jan 1996 while 150 miles north we never got past 28, as the big KU was a fringe job there.  That was somewhat AN for max depth in Gardiner but peanuts compared to BOX's anomaly.
My "affection" for deep pack was born in my Fort Kent years.  The monster pack in 1961 in NNJ is a strong memory, but that winter was almost the only incidence of significant pow-pow.  Usually the snows fell on bare ground there, or on a bit of whitish crust.  In the years once I became interested in snow records (began about 1956) until moving to BGR in 1973, my area in NNJ averaged 50-55", which is about 15" above the long-term average, and the Feb 1961 storm is the only one that brought a 10"+ storm atop a 10"+ pack.  Even the snowier locations in NW Jersey at 1000+ elevation did that only the one time.  Where I live now it occurs in more than half our snow seasons, even this past BN one though barely - the 10.3" on 3/23-24 fell atop a 10" pack.

Yeah I thought of that after posting that missive ... there's obviously a risky assumption there on my part; that the interior/N-Maine would necessarily have storm-to-storm, comparable storm results any given location say ...in CT. Lol ...  

I do recall that storm, the "Megalopolis Blizzard" I think it can be Wiki'ed ... but it does survive in the annuls as such.  Anyway, in the week prior to that, there was less contention as to whether a big event would transpire, but exactly where?  The Mid Atlantic was higher confidence... not us. At the time it had a slow moving version of PDI vibe about it - savvy readers may know that storm cut off at LI ( or maybe PDII..).  Mind us... circa 1995 .. 1996 modeling was hugely improving over 1978's era, or 1980's, but it was nowhere near what it is today; such that having a system some 7 days out in the charts back then, most importantly across multiple guidance species ( MRF and ECMWF and CMC ), tended to draw eyes and giggly banter over shoulder of the synoptician as he clicked his/her mouse - yeah..there used to be these devices connected to PC's call mice. 

1993 was discussed in early Synoptics up in the weather lab at UML ... Man, miss those wide-eyed days of pure wonder discussions - weather wasn't yet tainted by life. We extolled how there is that kind of storm that shows up across guidance types weirdly early - they behave like stones tumbling along, directing the chaos of the atmospheric fractals around them. Everything else proves faux, but the stone is still coming... It has the ability to 'withstand' permutations and still maintain a coherent signal - they seem to 'own' there physical presence in the hemispheric scaffolding of the circulation. Therefore seem to have a reliability in the guidance.  1993 March was one; 1996 Jan was also one of these. 1978 Feb is amazing for early primitive modeling.  But there's something else there ...almost a feeling that it's time. ..interesting

I met Harvey Leonard at the tail end of December of 1995.  I friend/undergrad who had interned with him thought it would be a hoot to introduce me to him - I mean... after all, we are geeks! We covet our celebrity's a little differently than pop cultural's typical pap.  I was like, sure LOL.  I think it might have been like a day or two before NYE ...or perhaps it was January 1 or 2, but the slow moving cut-off that was getting fed N stream cold streak shrapnel occasionally slipping into the backside of the mid and U/A circulation, adding to its momentum ... while is slowly buzz-sawed across the 35th parallel toward the M/A ... it was in all the guidance from D 7 in.  I remember debating with the man whether it would be real early in its gestation, and whether it would be able to get above NYC's latitude as an impactor.  I argued in favor of both...  That call scored me an internship with him ... I think. Because by the end of that discussion, in studio at WHDH Channel 7 at the time, he asked me what I was doing for internship during the immediate ensuing spring semester that year.  I was like...uh, yes Sensei. 

It was the first year I learned about deformation axis ...and what an opportunity to apply!  That deform band arced up and that was what clipped us from N CT to SE NH... Above that band, 12" totals fell to 2-4" fluff with orb sun mocking through pretty quickly.  I do recall that amazingly historic storm ... not really doing much above CON NH??  

As a separate note...I think there is some precedence there for big systems in SNE.  I don't think Dec 1992, or Feb 1978...were as big above ...oh Fryeburg ME as they were snow clockers for elevations SE of HFD up thru the lower spine of the Monadnocks down this way.  That's admittedly anecdotal...  But, New England is a vast area once we start including all six states and arguable eastern NY and NJ in the mix... We have climate zones for a reason, and sometimes these big events just can't really be physically big enough for everyone.  

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/29/2020 at 9:02 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I chased LES somewhere out in PA a few years back and I happened upon a big LES spot. When I tell you it was another world with the pack...I mean I’m shaking my head typing this. 

I love LES. Synoptic stuff is nice, but getting crushed by LES is another level due to the rates. Feb 2013 is the only thing I remember coming close. 

I can’t wait to chase a truly historic event up there. Watertown has been good to me.

I used to hate Ray for only hunting big dogs, but now I’m all about it. I still enjoy the smaller stuff but go big or go home. 

Anyone remember that nuclear low that obliterated Newfoundland in January? I still regret not chasing that beast. We need this here lol.

Lake effect is amazing. I want to do a chase this year. I have never been in one of the really big events but I have been in a few decent ones in northern MI.  What's so cool about it is almost every lake effect event is full of white outs, even the ones that don't make headlines. Even here outside the belts most of our winters will feature multiple whiteouts. They blow in-and-out so suddenly but the visibility during the brief squalls gets to near zero. For a few fleeting moments you're in  conditions more extreme then the biggest synoptic storms. That's why being in one of those ungodly streamers that just doesn't move would just be incredible at how fast it piles up.

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s so much fun. There’s nothing like a whiteout. In 2019 I caught both whiteout and deep cold. I must have walked for hours in -10 wind chills. 
 

just awesome. id love to visit Watertown during an event. 

 

It is true that it settles faster, but it seems to settle faster during those tremendous lake effect storms because once the snowpack gets so deep it seems to need to really have a hefty water content to get deeper (like someone referenced earlier how Buffalo's 82" storm looked like 20" a few days later) If you get a few inches, yes it will settle down to like an inch but it will not disappear lol. For those lighter dusting type of events, winds are actually the enemy because they will help sublimate it fast.

 

I was in the upper peninsula last February, they were forecast to get 3-6" of synoptic snow and the only got 3". Then overnight they forecast another 1 to 3" of lake effect I woke up and had about 7" of fluff on my car. That's daily life in the snow belts.

 

One of my favorite things here is that following most synoptic snow events (except waa stuff), there are almost always lake effect snow showers on the back side. Though we won't see that much accumulation, it tops the snowpack with an incredible sparkle. If synoptic was a wet snow, the trees are plastered frozen in snow and everything glistens. 

 

A few pics I've taken. one was a heavy snow squall overlooking Detroit from the 17th floor of MGM, another was looking out my bedroom window one night. Its always funny to see people's reactions when the forecast is "snow showers likely" or "scattered snow showers" then they get stuck in a white out. And then on the flip side during a warned storm you may get 10" of snow but visib never drops below 0.25-0.5 mile.

 

[tamarack]

On ‎8‎/‎31‎/‎2020 at 10:44 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

As a separate note...I think there is some precedence there for big systems in SNE.  I don't think Dec 1992, or Feb 1978...were as big above ...oh Fryeburg ME as they were snow clockers for elevations SE of HFD up thru the lower spine of the Monadnocks down this way.  That's admittedly anecdotal...  But, New England is a vast area once we start including all six states and arguable eastern NY and NJ in the mix... We have climate zones for a reason, and sometimes these big events just can't really be physically big enough for everyone.  

 Dec 1992 was just wind at my (then) home in Gardiner, nary a flake.  PWM had 2" so I doubt IZG got much.  Feb 1978 dumped 22" at the Farmington co-op, only 2" where I lived in Ft. Kent.  We were marking timber near the south shore of Eagle Lake about 15 miles south of FK and had S- on an eerily steady north wind about 25 mph.  I can't remember another significant wind that had so few gusts.  In my 10 years in northern Maine we had only one decent snowfall that also tagged both CHI and NYC, the April 1982 blizz.  Anything else that got both sites at 40-41N invariably kept heading east.

[Ginx snewx]

That Newfoundland storm was probably the most extreme snow. Imagine shutting down an entire area for a week. That was absolutely nutz and anyone who chased probably would be a lifetime achievement 

[TugHillMatt]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

just awesome. id love to visit Watertown during an event. 

 

It is true that it settles faster, but it seems to settle faster during those tremendous lake effect storms because once the snowpack gets so deep it seems to need to really have a hefty water content to get deeper (like someone referenced earlier how Buffalo's 82" storm looked like 20" a few days later) If you get a few inches, yes it will settle down to like an inch but it will not disappear lol. For those lighter dusting type of events, winds are actually the enemy because they will help sublimate it fast.

 

I was in the upper peninsula last February, they were forecast to get 3-6" of synoptic snow and the only got 3". Then overnight they forecast another 1 to 3" of lake effect I woke up and had about 7" of fluff on my car. That's daily life in the snow belts.

 

One of my favorite things here is that following most synoptic snow events (except waa stuff), there are almost always lake effect snow showers on the back side. Though we won't see that much accumulation, it tops the snowpack with an incredible sparkle. If synoptic was a wet snow, the trees are plastered frozen in snow and everything glistens. 

 

A few pics I've taken. one was a heavy snow squall overlooking Detroit from the 17th floor of MGM, another was looking out my bedroom window one night. Its always funny to see people's reactions when the forecast is "snow showers likely" or "scattered snow showers" then they get stuck in a white out. And then on the flip side during a warned storm you may get 10" of snow but visib never drops below 0.25-0.5 mile.

 

 

 

The thing I like about snow packs here in Upstate NY compared to West Michigan, is that we often have more opportunities for Synoptic snow to be added to snowpack here, and as a result, the pack doesn't melt as rapidly as it did in West Michigan (usually). Add some sleet and/or freezing rain to that, and the pack can stick around quite well.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The thing I like about snow packs here in Upstate NY compared to West Michigan, is that we often have more opportunities for Synoptic snow to be added to snowpack here, and as a result, the pack doesn't melt as rapidly as it did in West Michigan (usually). Add some sleet and/or freezing rain to that, and the pack can stick around quite well.

 That's a good point. Maybe there is more moisture available there? I remember when you lived in West Michigan sometimes you said it seemed like Southeast Michigan actually got more synoptic snow.  I mean don't get me wrong obviously I have to live by synoptic snow so I never really expect much accumulation from the lake, anything more than an inch is a bonus. I know I don't live in a snow belt so I just consider it nice that the mood flakes are almost always there.  A lot of times clippers actually get like a boost/recharge when they cross Lake Michigan so they can dump more snow on the eastern end of the state, I always call those Lake enhanced synoptic snow.  Finding a place prone to huge synoptic storms AND heavy Lake effect snow is just about perfect.  But you also have to be prepared for those times When 2 miles away may get 2' and you may get an inch.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I hate hate hate that I missed it. IIRC you were calling it a few days out. 

Wish I could have seen that

[512high]

Lol, enough of memory lane.....lets all put our thinking caps on, and think of 2020 up coming winter,  cold and lots of snow for those that got shafted last year ! 

[TugHillMatt]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 That's a good point. Maybe there is more moisture available there? I remember when you lived in West Michigan sometimes you said it seemed like Southeast Michigan actually got more synoptic snow.  I mean don't get me wrong obviously I have to live by synoptic snow so I never really expect much accumulation from the lake, anything more than an inch is a bonus. I know I don't live in a snow belt so I just consider it nice that the mood flakes are almost always there.  A lot of times clippers actually get like a boost/recharge when they cross Lake Michigan so they can dump more snow on the eastern end of the state, I always call those Lake enhanced synoptic snow.  Finding a place prone to huge synoptic storms AND heavy Lake effect snow is just about perfect.  But you also have to be prepared for those times When 2 miles away may get 2' and you may get an inch.

Yeah, West Michigan is basically moisture-starved powder from cold clippers that gets obliterated at the first sign of a thaw. The area I live in now does pretty well with approx. 140 inches a winter, but low elevation does no favors. I am looking for a place just north of me in Oswego county. Currently, I'm only a 20 minute drive from Fulton, which averages around 175 inches a winter.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, West Michigan is basically moisture-starved powder from cold clippers that gets obliterated at the first sign of a thaw. The area I live in now does pretty well with approx. 140 inches a winter, but low elevation does no favors. I am looking for a place just north of me in Oswego county. Currently, I'm only a 20 minute drive from Fulton, which averages around 175 inches a winter.

Once you get into the interior of the tug hill, it really goes bonkers with the snowpack...assisted by some CAD there that you don’t get further west and of course there’s extra moisture too further into the tug hill from both LES and synoptic systems. I’ve seen bare ground around Hastings or Parish after a bad thaw but there’s still 3 feet OTG once near Barnes Corners. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/31/2020 at 10:44 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

That deform band arced up and that was what clipped us from N CT to SE NH... Above that band, 12" totals fell to 2-4" fluff with orb sun mocking through pretty quickly.  I do recall that amazingly historic storm ... not really doing much above CON NH??  

As a separate note...I think there is some precedence there for big systems in SNE.  I don't think Dec 1992, or Feb 1978...were as big above ...oh Fryeburg ME as they were snow clockers for elevations SE of HFD up thru the lower spine of the Monadnocks down this way.  That's admittedly anecdotal...  But, New England is a vast area once we start including all six states and arguable eastern NY and NJ in the mix... We have climate zones for a reason, and sometimes these big events just can't really be physically big enough for everyone.  

Thank god that I wasn't at my current spot near the NH border in Methuen, then....I would have swan dived into the Merrimack. I remember laughing at the 5" of pixie dust that was reported in Methuen, while staring out the window in Wilmington at my 18-20" of fluff.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thank god that I wasn't at my current spot near the NH border in Methuen, then....I would have swan dived into the Merrimack. I remember laughing at the 5" of pixie dust that was reported in Methuen, while staring out the window in Wilmington at my 18-20" of fluff.

There was a crazy gradient there...probably 15"+ about 6-7 miles south of where you are now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a crazy gradient there...probably 15"+ about 6-7 miles south of where you are now.

I never realized how insanely close it was for me in Wilmington...I wasn't as scrupulous back then as I am today. It started snowing heavy in MBY, and I was like.....okay, we good. Little did I know that it was relatively inconsequential snow in like Lawrence/N Andover...

[slow poke]

15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, West Michigan is basically moisture-starved powder from cold clippers that gets obliterated at the first sign of a thaw. The area I live in now does pretty well with approx. 140 inches a winter, but low elevation does no favors. I am looking for a place just north of me in Oswego county. Currently, I'm only a 20 minute drive from Fulton, which averages around 175 inches a winter.

Where were you at in west Michigan? Seems you have to head north of Grand Rapids a ways and get into some of the higher elevation areas to retain snow. My son is a freshman at Grand Valley just west of GR this year and is looking forward to watching the lake effect this winter. Like snow freak I really enjoy reading your guys winter Thread every season, you guys all seem to respect each other’s options and have some great discussions on here, hope you don’t mind us Michiganders jumping on here occasionally.

[Torch Tiger]

 I predict another winter filled with threads discussing the good ole days, rather than the incredible warmth and snowless landscapes

[pasnownut]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Once you get into the interior of the tug hill, it really goes bonkers with the snowpack...assisted by some CAD there that you don’t get further west and of course there’s extra moisture too further into the tug hill from both LES and synoptic systems. I’ve seen bare ground around Hastings or Parish after a bad thaw but there’s still 3 feet OTG once near Barnes Corners. 

I've snowmobiled up there when there on the back end of a LE outbreak when they got 10'....thats not a typo.  Stayed in Barnes Corners/Montague.  It was surreal...like nothing I've ever seen.  5"/hr rates are just something to witness if your a true snow hound.  Snowed that hard we couldnt safely snowmobile as we couldn't see where the trails were.....and we literally couldn't see in mid afternoon.  

I hope everyone who loves snow gets to witness it.  

[TugHillMatt]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Once you get into the interior of the tug hill, it really goes bonkers with the snowpack...assisted by some CAD there that you don’t get further west and of course there’s extra moisture too further into the tug hill from both LES and synoptic systems. I’ve seen bare ground around Hastings or Parish after a bad thaw but there’s still 3 feet OTG once near Barnes Corners. 

Yeah, Montague and Worth do AMAZING with snowfall AND snowpack. I think they may even do better than Barnes. I lived in South Redfield for a year, and unfortunately that winter there were no huge LES hits for that area. SW winds kept it north much of the winter. That area is also, unfortunately, VERY economically struggling, as there aren't any jobs. The past few winters have been even harder on their economy which relies heavily on winter tourism. With the thaws even ruining good snow packs there, snowmobiling hasn't been too great.

3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Where were you at in west Michigan? Seems you have to head north of Grand Rapids a ways and get into some of the higher elevation areas to retain snow. My son is a freshman at Grand Valley just west of GR this year and is looking forward to watching the lake effect this winter. Like snow freak I really enjoy reading your guys winter Thread every season, you guys all seem to respect each other’s options and have some great discussions on here, hope you don’t mind us Michiganders jumping on here occasionally.

Hey, slow poke! I sure do miss some things about beautiful West Michigan! I was in Spring Lake, between Grand Haven and Muskegon. Beautiful area. GVSU/Allendale were only about a half hour away. I would go to the greenhouses down there a couple times a year. Snow melts rapidly there when you get a MOIST SW wind blowing in off the lake. I would say many years bounced back and forth between bare ground and a couple weeks of 6 to 10 inches on the ground. Back and forth. Deepest snow depth of the winter was usually around a foot and a half. Once you get north of a Manistee/Baldwin line, snow cover becomes more reliable...with higher latitude and elevation. West Michigan gets lots of "couple inch" events often from Westerly winds. Grand Rapids can often be the winner there if the winds are strong and jump the snow over the lakeshore. The next common would be the Northwest winds, which would clip much of West Michigan and often pound an area from just south of Holland to Allegan. My favorite for my area were the SW lake enhanced events. That's when Grand Haven/Spring Lake/Muskegon would cash in. This often happened on the front end of cold clippers. After our families here on the East Coast pass away in (hopefully) far away years, my wife and I would definitely consider moving back to Michigan. I love the area WEST of Traverse City to the Leelanau Peninsula. More rural, higher in elevation, close enough to a city (Traverse City is growing fast...would never live there though), close to the lake, and gets lots of lake effect snow. We did, however, LOVE the Spring Lake area of Ottawa county. We made amazing friends there.

Not sure if you're talking about the Upstate NY winter thread or the New England thread? Thanks, New Englanders for letting us chat on here  . The Upstate NY sub-forum is a great one too. We have great conversations, are pretty respectful, and like to laugh. Our buddy Freak can get a bit feisty...but we all know that about him. lol

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Where were you at in west Michigan? Seems you have to head north of Grand Rapids a ways and get into some of the higher elevation areas to retain snow. My son is a freshman at Grand Valley just west of GR this year and is looking forward to watching the lake effect this winter. Like snow freak I really enjoy reading your guys winter Thread every season, you guys all seem to respect each other’s options and have some great discussions on here, hope you don’t mind us Michiganders jumping on here occasionally.

I would say the northern half of the lower peninsula is where you can really count on solid snowcover most or all of the season. The southern half of the lower peninsula is just too prone to occasional thaws, though once in a while you can get snowcover the entire Winter and then some (ie 1977-78, 2013-14).

 

On the flip side the Great Lakes help ensure that even in the suckiest winters there will be plenty of snow chances. The extreme feast-or-famine scenarios that are possible in the northeast are far less likely here. That's why I love the years with good snowcover retention. It makes the Winter seems so much more harsh. Last year  is a great example. It started early, it ended late.  Snowfall ran around average in the Detroit area to above average in the Flint area. I could guarantee you that if you asked any non weather person if there was a lot of snow last winter, they would probably say no, because the entire season alternated white and bare with no extended stretches. That's why I'm surprised so many people in New England (per this thread) are not big on snowpack. All it would take is one nor'easter and some cold air to keep that snow around for a long time.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, Montague and Worth do AMAZING with snowfall AND snowpack. I think they may even do better than Barnes. I lived in South Redfield for a year, and unfortunately that winter there were no huge LES hits for that area. SW winds kept it north much of the winter. That area is also, unfortunately, VERY economically struggling, as there aren't any jobs. The past few winters have been even harder on their economy which relies heavily on winter tourism. With the thaws even ruining good snow packs there, snowmobiling hasn't been too great.

Hey, slow poke! I sure do miss some things about beautiful West Michigan! I was in Spring Lake, between Grand Haven and Muskegon. Beautiful area. GVSU/Allendale were only about a half hour away. I would go to the greenhouses down there a couple times a year. Snow melts rapidly there when you get a MOIST SW wind blowing in off the lake. I would say many years bounced back and forth between bare ground and a couple weeks of 6 to 10 inches on the ground. Back and forth. Deepest snow depth of the winter was usually around a foot and a half. Once you get north of a Manistee/Baldwin line, snow cover becomes more reliable...with higher latitude and elevation. West Michigan gets lots of "couple inch" events often from Westerly winds. Grand Rapids can often be the winner there if the winds are strong and jump the snow over the lakeshore. The next common would be the Northwest winds, which would clip much of West Michigan and often pound an area from just south of Holland to Allegan. My favorite for my area were the SW lake enhanced events. That's when Grand Haven/Spring Lake/Muskegon would cash in. This often happened on the front end of cold clippers. After our families here on the East Coast pass away in (hopefully) far away years, my wife and I would definitely consider moving back to Michigan. I love the area WEST of Traverse City to the Leelanau Peninsula. More rural, higher in elevation, close enough to a city (Traverse City is growing fast...would never live there though), close to the lake, and gets lots of lake effect snow. We did, however, LOVE the Spring Lake area of Ottawa county. We made amazing friends there.

Not sure if you're talking about the Upstate NY winter thread or the New England thread? Thanks, New Englanders for letting us chat on here  . The Upstate NY sub-forum is a great one too. We have great conversations, are pretty respectful, and like to laugh. Our buddy Freak can get a bit feisty...but we all know that about him. lol

I always love popping into this thread early because they seem to be the 1st sub to start a Winter thread. The lakes forum waits until like October.

[Typhoon Tip]

Kalamazoo by chance geography seemed to always have brilliant white lake effect CB band NE of the city ... turn around and another band dark gray passing SW  

Training snow bands aligned such that kz was splitting the goal post.  
 

The best lake affect snow at that city’s location was when the air mass got super cold and everybody ended up in that kind of misting low vis crystal froth within an entire radar scope having tiny corpuscular nodes amid a level one green smear. 15F

[Torch Tiger]

So what are the most realistic analogs for this coming winter?