Winter 2020-2021

[thunderbolt]

  On 11/7/2020 at 5:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This week.

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Thank you

[sebastiaan1973]

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019GL085592

The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North
America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American
weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of
the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland
blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a
widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly
associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of
the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology
may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime

[sebastiaan1973]

http://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1324736557597773824

I'm excited to add a new (experimental) forecast product to my website: GEFS 35-day forecasts of North American wintertime weather regimes! Regimes can be a useful tool for subseasonal forecasting. Check it out

Tweet by Simon Lee from the UK.

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 11/6/2020 at 9:09 PM, masonwoods said:

You appear to be ill informed.  Many states have laws prohibit processing absentee ballots prior to poll closing on the night of the election. I know some states tried to start early but the GOP sued to keep that from happening.  There is a much more involved process for handling absentee ballots which takes time.  I know signatures are checked for accuracy.  Regarding “Ballot Curing”; when an absentee ballot gets rejected some states are required to notify the voter that their ballot was rejected and the voter has a chance to fix the issue. I had never heard of this practice but apparently it is common.

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You are correct on all points. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 11/7/2020 at 8:10 AM, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1324736557597773824

I'm excited to add a new (experimental) forecast product to my website: GEFS 35-day forecasts of North American wintertime weather regimes! Regimes can be a useful tool for subseasonal forecasting. Check it out

Tweet by Simon Lee from the UK.

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Interesting stuff Sebastian....drop by here anytime!

[michsnowfreak]

I saw bluewave post that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 

1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1"

2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8"

period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43")

 

So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 11/7/2020 at 1:27 AM, Allsnow said:

 

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Weak PV last NOV early December, maybe it shoots its load too early. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 11/7/2020 at 8:10 AM, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1324736557597773824

I'm excited to add a new (experimental) forecast product to my website: GEFS 35-day forecasts of North American wintertime weather regimes! Regimes can be a useful tool for subseasonal forecasting. Check it out

Tweet by Simon Lee from the UK.

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Nice Simon, nice to see you back around 

[dryslot]

The election has nothing to do with what type of winter weather we will have and is not the place to discuss it, I came here to see weather analysis and the first thing i see is politics.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/9/2020 at 7:11 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

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Very similar to my thoughts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 11/9/2020 at 8:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very similar to my thoughts.

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We will struggle especially S of Pike. It’s been bad stretch but it is what it is. 

[michsnowfreak]

  On 11/9/2020 at 8:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very similar to my thoughts.

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 Are you still seeing a wintry December? This Indian summer weather is something else but I know how quickly the weather can change. La Nina typically has wintry December's.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/9/2020 at 9:51 PM, michsnowfreak said:

 Are you still seeing a wintry December? This Indian summer weather is something else but I know how quickly the weather can change. La Nina typically has wintry December's.

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Yes, but I could see us burning a week or two to begin the month...no pun intended.

I think if Dec ever failed, then its rat city.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 11/9/2020 at 10:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but I could see us burning a week or two to begin the month...no pun intended.

I think if Dec ever failed, then its rat city.

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I'm all for wintry around Christmas! Obviously we are in different areas but your outlook gives me a good idea what to expect. If its as active as ninas usually are, I just can't go ratter here from a snowfall perspective regardless, but it can certainly be frustrating from a sustained perspective. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/9/2020 at 10:07 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I'm all for wintry around Christmas! Obviously we are in different areas but your outlook gives me a good idea what to expect. If its as active as ninas usually are, I just can't go ratter here from a snowfall perspective regardless, but it can certainly be frustrating from a sustained perspective. 

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What did you get in 88-89 and 98-99?

[SJonesWX]

  On 11/9/2020 at 7:11 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

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glad we don’t live there

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 11/9/2020 at 11:32 PM, SJonesWX said:

glad we don’t live there

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How well did they do with last year's prediction? Just curious

[Mr. Kevin]

  On 11/9/2020 at 10:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, but I could see us burning a week or two to begin the month...no pun intended.

I think if Dec ever failed, then its rat city.

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I got a question. Why do you feel December could be a cold month for us? November started off with really cold air last year and then crap hit the fan lol. We had that warm pool out in West Pacific then also. 

[michsnowfreak]

  On 11/9/2020 at 11:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What did you get in 88-89 and 98-99?

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88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November.

 

Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41")

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2007-08: 71.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/10/2020 at 3:24 AM, michsnowfreak said:

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November.

 

Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41")

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2007-08: 71.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

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Yea, so you had the same two ratters that I did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/10/2020 at 1:39 AM, Mr. Kevin said:

I got a question. Why do you feel December could be a cold month for us? November started off with really cold air last year and then crap hit the fan lol. We had that warm pool out in West Pacific then also. 

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Largely basin wide la nina climo dictates that the polar domain is less hostile early on. By cold, I mean near normal or slightly below. 

[michsnowfreak]

  On 11/10/2020 at 5:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, so you had the same two ratters that I did.

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I mean don't get me wrong, a ratter is certainly possible...anything is always possible. But if the tables were turned and there were a few good winters and a bunch of ratters and someone called for a good winter, can you imagine the  they would get? . 

 

One year ago today a Winter storm watch was in effect and on Veterans Day Detroit saw the largest November snowstorm on record, followed by record smashing cold. Did that foretell Winter? I think not!

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 11/10/2020 at 3:24 AM, michsnowfreak said:

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November.

 

Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41")

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

1999-00: 23.7"

2007-08: 71.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

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Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/10/2020 at 1:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

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I could see this winter ending up similarly to that one.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 11/10/2020 at 1:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

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yup, same.  The November torch was extremely impressive & despite a cold snap and snow on Thanksgiving the month still holds 4th warmest November on record here. Then December saw 20" of snow sandwiched around a torch mid month where the temperature hit 65ﾟ. January saw plenty more snow and a temperature as low as -18ﾟ at Detroit before the 2nd half of February saw the torch return with more temps in the mid 60s. 

[FPizz]

  On 11/10/2020 at 12:13 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

How well did they do with last year's prediction? Just curious

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Not good.  

[weathafella]

  On 11/10/2020 at 1:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting you mention 1975....was thinking about that one yesterday with the warmth. That had an obscene early November torch (and a +5ish month overall) too....though not quite as warm as these current few days. But I believe ORH cracked 70F a couple times and came close a whole bunch of others.

That year then started to see-saw in late November to mid December before we had a solid 5-6 week stretch from about 12/20 to late January.

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I remember standing outside of Steve’s Ice cream original Somerville location in mid January 1976 with a line around the block with temperatures neat 0.  We had 12+ about a day later.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 11/10/2020 at 4:39 PM, weathafella said:

I remember standing outside of Steve’s Ice cream original Somerville location in mid January 1976 with a line around the block with temperatures neat 0.  We had 12+ about a day later.

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Yeah the January 1976 cold was really intense.

They day you are thinking of is probably 1/11/76. It was absolutely frigid. Good storm started that night and went into the next morning...temps were mostly in the single digits and teens during the snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/10/2020 at 4:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the January 1976 cold was really intense.

They day you are thinking of is probably 1/11/76. It was absolutely frigid. Good storm started that night and went into the next morning...temps were mostly in the single digits and teens during the snow.

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Nice three year run of winters that was.