RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 4:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the current structure of la nina favors that. Expand Wouldn’t a strengthening la nina not favor it as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 4:44 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wouldn’t a strengthening la nina not favor it as much? Expand Depends how strong....MEI of 1.2 is not a huge deal. I would rather a mod east based event, than a weak west-based. Still some stuff to workout.....regardless, I'm not calling for 1995-1996 neg NAO, so don't get me wrong. Just not last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 4:41 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Expand Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but this time of year...I would expect that to be the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:13 PM, CoastalWx said: Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but this time of year...I would expect that to be the case? Expand lol yea that’s what I was thinking. Winter is coming, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 4:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends how strong....MEI of 1.2 is not a huge deal. I would rather a mod east based event, than a weak west-based. Still some stuff to workout.....regardless, I'm not calling for 1995-1996 neg NAO, so don't get me wrong. Just not last year. Expand I doubt it goes this strong, but HM and Ben Noll have made comparisons of this year to 1988: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Oh God. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said: Will he ever go for a ratter? Expand Here we go, let's look at the record. Who called for a ratter in April 15 then again in Nov 15 for 15/16 besides me and Jerry. We already know you will flip flop like you are on Cape Cod bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:27 PM, Ginx snewx said: Here we go, let's look at the record. Who called for a ratter in April 15 then again in Nov 15 for 15/16 besides me and Jerry. We already know you will flip flop like you are on Cape Cod bay. Expand That was a super Nino..lol. I think we all thought it may suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:29 PM, CoastalWx said: That was a super Nino..lol. I think we all thought it may suck. Expand To imply all I do is call for big winters is dead wrong and frankly ignorance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:32 PM, Ginx snewx said: To imply all I do is call for big winters is dead wrong and frankly ignorance Expand I'm going 14-15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I think we’d all agree anything less than this is a failure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:13 PM, CoastalWx said: Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but this time of year...I would expect that to be the case? Expand The warm anomalies on that map are actually where we want to see them start ramping up in November....eastern Siberia. Hopefully they keep doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: The warm anomalies on that map are actually where we want to see them start ramping up in November....eastern Siberia. Hopefully they keep doing so. Expand That's true. I just mean overall I wouldn't expect a displacement...or even a hint at it getting thrown off the axis quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 2:02 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lots of downtime in my new gig too, like all the time, so I finished my framework last month. 10-11 and might even be able to turn Feb 11 around. La La lock it up Expand Lol...I have no more excuses. While working full time, over the last 10 years I avoided using their servers so everything was by phone. Waiting for an image to load-peep at the euro-working on a boring report-check the phone for sanity. i suspect I’ll king weenie as winter gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 4:38 PM, CoastalWx said: I mean in general. We love Steve, just busting chops. Expand Steve, see above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:16 PM, snowman19 said: I doubt it goes this strong, but HM and Ben Noll have made comparisons of this year to 1988: Expand Ninas favor mjo phase 2-5 because of where the warm waters are. I don’t think we will get much help this year from the mjo. The one positive is how warm the waters are off the west coast. That’s not a typical strong Niña look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:16 PM, snowman19 said: I doubt it goes this strong, but HM and Ben Noll have made comparisons of this year to 1988: Expand I saw that. Not happening in terms of strength of la nina, but same periods may remind us of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 6:12 PM, Allsnow said: Ninas favor mjo phase 2-5 because of where the warm waters are. I don’t think we will get much help this year from the mjo. The one positive is how warm the waters are off the west coast. That’s not a typical strong Niña look. Expand Being east based helps, as well. It can keep the forcing closer to the dateline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/16/2020 at 5:29 PM, CoastalWx said: That was a super Nino..lol. I think we all thought it may suck. Expand Everyone knew that....except for JB, Judah Cohen and Steve DiMartino lol You know, the usual quacks.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Mike V showed a graphic of the background easterlies, slowly migrating east over the last few months. I thought that was a good thing to see. I can't right now, but someone can link that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 1:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Mike V showed a graphic of the background easterlies, slowly migrating east over the last few months. I thought that was a good thing to see. I can't right now, but someone can link that. Expand This may explain why la nina hasn't been migrating westward as assertively as guidance had suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 1:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This may explain why la nina hasn't been migrating westward as assertively as guidance had suggested. Expand Let me find that. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1318156865407246336?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 So if you look at the erly anomalies and pretend there is a trend line going from top to bottom, you'll see what he means. The lower part is a forecast, but sometimes those forecasts are not accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 1:17 PM, CoastalWx said: So if you look at the erly anomalies and pretend there is a trend line going from top to bottom, you'll see what he means. The lower part is a forecast, but sometimes those forecasts are not accurate. Expand Do you agree with what I said about potentially keeping westward progression at bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 1:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you agree with what I said about potentially keeping westward progression at bay? Expand I think it makes sense....easterlies migrating eastward is going to keep the Nino1+2 and Nino 3 regions colder than otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Yeah pretty much what Will said. It will help keep ern regions cooler, and then that interface where erly anomalies and wrly anomalies meet, would trend east. For simplistic terms, that interface is probably where you have anomalous convection. Keep that east of the maritime continent would be a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 There is a lot more to the winter puzzle here in New England, but that is a good thing anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/19/2020 at 1:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think it makes sense....easterlies migrating eastward is going to keep the Nino1+2 and Nino 3 regions colder than otherwise. Expand On 10/19/2020 at 1:34 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah pretty much what Will said. It will help keep ern regions cooler, and then that interface where erly anomalies and wrly anomalies meet, would trend east. For simplistic terms, that interface is probably where you have anomalous convection. Keep that east of the maritime continent would be a good thing. Expand Almost like the ENSO deformation zone haha Exactly. Same page....pinning the forcing west is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 Region 1.2 hanging tough at -1.2.....3.4 down to -1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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