Winter 2020-2021

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Last winter was pretty shitty up north wasn’t it? 

Yeah but it was still only the northern crew getting interesting events. 

I guess I misread it, it doesn't have to be a banner winter for only the northern tier to be posting frequently.  I'd almost say if it's a poor region wide winter, the northern folks will be the ones still posting regularly where averages dictate at least some decent/fun events outside of some abortion like 15-16.  I still remember some fun events last winter and it DEFINITELY felt like we were the only ones snowing when it was happening.

[powderfreak]

I mean, Phin isn't going to know what's happening even if it's a shitty winter... just bewildered regardless.  Like he said a couple days ago, the windy rainy cool event felt like February in Maryland already.  Just imagine what November will feel like.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah but it was still only the northern crew getting interesting events. 

I guess I misread it, it doesn't have to be a banner winter for only the northern tier to be posting frequently.  I'd almost say if it's a poor region wide winter, the northern folks will be the ones still posting regularly where averages dictate at least some decent/fun events outside of some abortion like 15-16.  I still remember some fun events last winter and it DEFINITELY felt like we were the only ones snowing when it was happening.

Yeah that’s true. Even in garbage winters you’ll get moose fart upslope events like ‘11-12. 

We did have a pretty active December down here. 27”+ at ORH for the month...3 events after the big one early month. But Jan/Feb was about as bad as it gets before it actually got somewhat active again 2nd half of March and April. But by then it was a little too late to get really big events. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah but it was still only the northern crew getting interesting events. 

I guess I misread it, it doesn't have to be a banner winter for only the northern tier to be posting frequently.  I'd almost say if it's a poor region wide winter, the northern folks will be the ones still posting regularly where averages dictate at least some decent/fun events outside of some abortion like 15-16.  I still remember some fun events last winter and it DEFINITELY felt like we were the only ones snowing when it was happening.

I guess I meant more in the way of you guys getting it good even by your standards and a total screw job here. 
 

[raindancewx]

My outlook will be out tomorrow. 

But I was looking at something today: Since 1950, by my definition there are 24 winters following an El Nino winter. In those winters, if the NAO is positive in October, it is only positive in winter 5/13 times. But, if the NAO is negative in October, it is positive in winter 8/11 times. These are tiny samples, but if you do a difference in proportions test, it still just barely passes as statistically significant (p<=0.05), i.e. probably not a fluke or due to chance, and a real relationship. It's a shift in odds by ~35%. My NAO forecast blend already expected the NAO to be positive, but I was surprised to see any kind of correlation for this. It is pretty linear too: so if the NAO is -1.5 or something this October, you'd expect the NAO to be more positive in winter than if it were -0.5.

The +NAO La Nina composite is this:

The strongest La Ninas since 1950 (<25.0C in DJF) give this - don't really expect the La Nina to last at that strength for DJF though.

The low-sea, cold ENSO years since 2007 are similar too.

The 80-160 La Nina ACE years (currently 122) also look a lot like the first two composites.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last winter was pretty shitty up north wasn’t it? 

We had a pretty good winter last spring, but met winter was MEH!!  No storms over 7", no sustained cold, mediocre pack, etc.  CAR had about 150", however, though no real biggies even there.

[OSUmetstud]

I thought the County was the basically the only place with above average snowfall in New England last year?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I thought the County was the basically the only place with above average snowfall in New England last year?

Randolph was above average. 207" on an average of 185" (over the past 12 years at the CoCoRaHS site, at least).

But looking at the daily record that snowfall number was boosted by the observer being obsessive about measuring every little snowfall. There were many major thaws and melts. The number was also boosted by some big snows in April and May, basically garbage time scores.

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Randolph was above average. 207" on an average of 185" (over the past 12 years at the CoCoRaHS site, at least).

But looking at the daily record that snowfall number was boosted by the observer being obsessive about measuring every little snowfall. There were many major thaws and melts. The number was also boosted by some big snows in April and May, basically garbage time scores.

Yes. I remember that good April storm there for Maine. It was the biggest storm of the season up there. We forecast for Maine DOT. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yes. I remember that good April storm there for Maine. It was the biggest storm of the season up there. We forecast for Maine DOT. 

#2 at my place, 8.5" compared to 10.3" on March 23-24.  Only 2006-07 had a greater percentage of snowfall in spring in our 22 years here.

[weathafella]

On 10/8/2020 at 4:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What a stretch in late Dec into Jan...then it was over. I’ll take that any winter though. Throw me 3 KU’s in 4 weeks then take it away. 

For us in EMA it was a 6 week stretch that gave a ton of snow.  I remember the snow banks were unreal-wan't that the year of Kevin's manicured banks?  It petered out in February but a front loaded winter like that to me is preferred.

 

Regarding your assertion of the pig-it's complicated.  The pig in October relented. Many of the great winters had it in October and indeed some all winter-as long as we have enough poleward pointing of a ridge nearby to facilitate cold dumping.  Models this year do not sure a pig in the long range yet.  But as Will and others mentioned, NAO is pretty critical to our fortunes.  Hey I think we have a +PDO now?  That can help!

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

 

 

[J.Spin]

20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last winter was pretty shitty up north wasn’t it? 

It definitely shouldn’t be categorized that poorly – it’s probably best categorized as “below average”.  Season snowfall here was only 9.2% (-0.34 σ) below our mean snowfall, so one certainly can’t justify too low a rating based on that.  Snowpack (via SDD) fared worse at -0.60 σ, but that’s still well inside 1 S.D. below the mean.  Grading for an average winter here is a C, and the season was only pushed from a C- to a D+ because of the snowpack as I mentioned in my seasonal grading comments quoted below.  That’s still way above the F level though, and I think one would have to be getting down in that range to be thinking “pretty shitty”.

“I don’t typically expect any snow in June down at our elevation, so barring some strange occurrence, 142.1” of snow will be the total this season.  That’s -0.34 σ, which puts it literally right on the D+/C- border.

Being in that spot gives one a lot of flexibility to push it in either direction based on other snow parameters, but by the numbers, it looks like there are far fewer stats coming in above average than below.  A notable example would be SDD, which came in at -0.60 σ, so that certainly has one leaning toward the D+.”

While November snowfall was nowhere near record levels, it was still above average, and it was a very early and strong start to the season.  A winter snowpack that starts on the cusp of the first week of November definitely throws some “oomph” into the season.  The midwinter months of DJF were around or just slightly below average with 30-40” of snow each, and then there was a strong finish in May.  So you had what ended up being an average-ish middle of the season with a strong start and finish that set a number of records in our data set here:

• First ≥2" snowfall:  Nov 8^th (EARLIEST)
• First ≥3" snowfall:  Nov 8^th (EARLIEST)
• First ≥4" snowfall:  Nov 8^th (EARLIEST)
• First ≥6" snowfall:  Nov 8^th (EARLIEST)
• Start of continuous snowpack:  Nov 8^th (EARLIEST)
• May snowfall:  5.7” (HIGHEST)

All in all, in felt much more like a “below average” winter than anything more extreme than that. 

[powderfreak]

Yeah JSpin that’s how I felt about it, below normal but nothing “bad”... though I do think that the overall tenor on this forum last winter made me almost feel lucky.

In a psychological assessment we have known on this forum that how one does relative to the region-wide tenor of winter does impact the lasting impression.  It could be getting a “not as bad” winter as others or on the flip side we’ve seen people grade otherwise great winters as semi-let downs because nearby someone got smoked (2015 comes to mind for folks just outside the crush zone).  As much as we wish it didn’t matter, that “lasting impression” of winter does have some relativity to it.

So like last year a total dumpster fire elsewhere feels ok to get 80-100% in NNE.

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Randolph was above average. 207" on an average of 185" (over the past 12 years at the CoCoRaHS site, at least).

But looking at the daily record that snowfall number was boosted by the observer being obsessive about measuring every little snowfall. There were many major thaws and melts. The number was also boosted by some big snows in April and May, basically garbage time scores.

Unless that observer was clearing and measuring too frequently or something (which I guess there was some concern about at that site based on certain observational comments), it’s appropriate to measure all those snowfalls.  That’s an important part of documenting the climate for a location and it would be erroneous to not document them thoroughly.

And don’t buy into May, and especially April being “garbage time”.  Certainly some weenies, especially the farther south you go, will try to preach that stuff.  You’ll frequently see it touted if someone’s got an agenda to push that a season “sucked”, so late season snowfalls get downplayed because continued snowfall goes against what they’re trying to sell.  You’ll hear stuff like “it just melts the next day, so it doesn’t count”.  Mother Nature doesn’t really care about that agenda.  Believe me, April (and probably even some May) snowfalls are not just going to simply melt the next day at your site.  Average winter snowpack melt out down here at 500’ at our site is mid-April, and for your site it should be even later than that.  April and, even May snowfalls can make for some fantastic powder skiing on deep snowpack with nobody else around, so it’s far from garbage time in the mountains.

[raindancewx]

https://www.scribd.com/document/479516526/Winter-2020-21-Outlook

That's my winter outlook. Finally finished updating and caught most-all of the typos.

It's a much colder winter than last year overall, but it's still not "cold" for many people. I have fairly limited areas wetter than average too. I think the PDO will fluctuate a lot, but should  be primarily pretty negative from Nov-Apr with how cold Nino 1.2 is. What we're seeing now is some cooling east of Japan (toward a +PDO), but also cooling by NW North America (toward a -PDO). You should at least see continue cooling by NW North America if the usual build up of cold in a La Nina happens in Western Canada.

[512high]

12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

https://www.scribd.com/document/479516526/Winter-2020-21-Outlook

That's my winter outlook. Finally finished updating and caught most-all of the typos.

It's a much colder winter than last year overall, but it's still not "cold" for many people. I have fairly limited areas wetter than average too. I think the PDO will fluctuate a lot, but should  be primarily pretty negative from Nov-Apr with how cold Nino 1.2 is. What we're seeing now is some cooling east of Japan (toward a +PDO), but also cooling by NW North America (toward a -PDO). You should at least see continue cooling by NW North America if the usual build up of cold in a La Nina happens in Western Canada.

raindancewx, First thanks for taking the time to write that all up! Like Ray and others have given their outlooks and thoughtsI , I'm sure others appreciate all the work that goes into your outlook. Would like to see snow start early December into April.....I know, wishful thinking.........

[weathafella]

That’s a ton of work raindance-thank you!

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Unless that observer was clearing and measuring too frequently or something (which I guess there was some concern about at that site based on certain observational comments), it’s appropriate to measure all those snowfalls.  That’s an important part of documenting the climate for a location and it would be erroneous to not document them thoroughly.

And don’t buy into May, and especially April being “garbage time”.  Certainly some weenies, especially the farther south you go, will try to preach that stuff.  You’ll frequently see it touted if someone’s got an agenda to push that a season “sucked”, so late season snowfalls get downplayed because continued snowfall goes against what they’re trying to sell.  You’ll hear stuff like “it just melts the next day, so it doesn’t count”.  Mother Nature doesn’t really care about that agenda.  Believe me, April (and probably even some May) snowfalls are not just going to simply melt the next day at your site.  Average winter snowpack melt out down here at 500’ at our site is mid-April, and for your site it should be even later than that.  April and, even May snowfalls can make for some fantastic powder skiing on deep snowpack with nobody else around, so it’s far from garbage time in the mountains.

I agree with this. 

[powderfreak]

There is certainly no garbage time in snowfall.  It is welcomed at any time.  I know ORH has said it plenty, but late-season snow is so much better than the alternative of 40F and rain.  It's going to be cold and precipitating, might as well be snow.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I am concerned that this winter SNE will see many chances at snow, but they are wasted by a progressive natured jet stream without any -NAO blocking present.  Also, there will be strong periods of above normal temps.  Let's pray that the Greenland block amps upwards this winter and knocks down the SE ridge.

[alex]

4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Unless that observer was clearing and measuring too frequently or something (which I guess there was some concern about at that site based on certain observational comments), it’s appropriate to measure all those snowfalls.  That’s an important part of documenting the climate for a location and it would be erroneous to not document them thoroughly.

And don’t buy into May, and especially April being “garbage time”.  Certainly some weenies, especially the farther south you go, will try to preach that stuff.  You’ll frequently see it touted if someone’s got an agenda to push that a season “sucked”, so late season snowfalls get downplayed because continued snowfall goes against what they’re trying to sell.  You’ll hear stuff like “it just melts the next day, so it doesn’t count”.  Mother Nature doesn’t really care about that agenda.  Believe me, April (and probably even some May) snowfalls are not just going to simply melt the next day at your site.  Average winter snowpack melt out down here at 500’ at our site is mid-April, and for your site it should be even later than that.  April and, even May snowfalls can make for some fantastic powder skiing on deep snowpack with nobody else around, so it’s far from garbage time in the mountains.

This was my daughter on May 10th

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

There is certainly no garbage time in snowfall.  It is welcomed at any time.  I know ORH has said it plenty, but late-season snow is so much better than the alternative of 40F and rain.  It's going to be cold and precipitating, might as well be snow.

Not garbage time but there comes a time when I like to move on to warm season pursuits. 

[dryslot]

Lot of Time, Work and Effort put into that forecast raindancewx, Really thorough and well presented, Thank you.

[OSUmetstud]

New UKMET seasonal is out

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Very strong La Nina -2c. Is this realistic?

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, mreaves said:

Not garbage time but there comes a time when I like to move on to warm season pursuits. 

I totally agree, but my experience up here in the mountains of NNE has definitely taught me that attempting to rush into warm season pursuits ahead of schedule is often just a recipe for disappointment.  We know when that warmth finally has a chance to stick…

[ORH_wxman]

45 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Very strong La Nina -2c. Is this realistic?

I don’t think < -2C for a trimonthly is all that realistic. Maybe -1.7ish could happen. 

[weathafella]

That UKMET is like warm and wet.  That can be pretty snowy in New England.  See 2012-13.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That UKMET is like warm and wet.  That can be pretty snowy in New England.  See 2012-13.

‘07-‘08 was also warm and wet. Not a blowtorch...was around +1ish for the winter. 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think < -2C for a trimonthly is all that realistic. Maybe -1.7ish could happen. 

there is only on tri monthly oni number as low as -2.0 and that was the 1973-74  NDJ tri monthly period...the lowest tri monthly number for the DJF period are...

year...DJF oni

1950 -1.5

1971 -1.4

1974 -1.8

1976 -1.6

1989 -1.7

2000 -1.7

2008 -1.6

2011 -1.4