Winter 2020-2021

[weathafella]

I had a dream that the first snow happened....it was a happy dream.  It was a snow squall that had brief low visibility and then cleared out.  It was sometime in November in the dream,  it’s coming!

[Damage In Tolland]

Another ratter incoming 

 

[Snowstorms]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

One thing I disagree with is that there was a ton of ups and downs in the old days too. The 1940s were pitiful for snow in this area, the worst decade on record. Just boring. There was some cold, but admittedly I had to look up a few of those winters because I didnt think they were cold. 1945-46 was a very short winter due to a very warm March (as was 1944-45 in March). But also in addition to cold, most places saw some incredibly "open winters" back in the day the likes of which we have never experienced (ie 1931-32, 1936-37, 1941-42, 1948-49, 1952-53).

 

As for temps, here are the decadal winter temps for Detroit, Buffalo, and Boston since the 1880s (ie 1880s = 1879-80 thru 1888-89). Xmacis doesnt have Toronto or else I would have done them.

 

DETROIT

1880s- 27.2

1890s- 26.9

1900s- 25.1

1910s- 25.5

1920s- 26.7

1930s- 28.1

1940s- 27.0

1950s- 28.5

1960s- 26.5

1970s- 24.6

1980s- 26.3

1990s- 28.7

2000s- 27.8

2010s- 28.2

 

BUFFALO

1880s- 25.8

1890s- 27.5

1900s- 25.7

1910s- 26.0

1920s- 26.0

1930s- 27.7

1940s- 26.1

1950s- 28.1

1960s- 25.1

1970s- 24.8

1980s- 26.9

1990s- 28.0

2000s- 27.3

2010s- 27.8

 

BOSTON

1880s- 28.9

1890s- 30.0

1900s- 29.3

1910s- 30.5

1920s- 30.9

1930s- 31.0

1940s- 29.8

1950s- 32.3

1960s- 30.1

1970s- 31.1

1980s- 31.4

1990s- 32.7

2000s- 32.1

2010s- 33.0

Although 44-45 and 45-46 had exceptionally warm Marches, DJF were cold. Jan 1945 in particular. 

As you can see, the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's and again the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's were exceptionally cooler than any of the last three decades in all three cities you provided. Some of the warm winters we saw in these last few decades weren't just "warm" but were exceptionally above normal. Winters like 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 , 2011-12 and 2015-16 were extremely warm winters nationwide. So there's been a definite warming trend in the last 100+ years. 

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I had a dream that the first snow happened....it was a happy dream.  It was a snow squall that had brief low visibility and then cleared out.  It was sometime in November in the dream,  it’s coming!

 Head to Denver lol. Heres a forecast you don't see everyday.

 

"Winter storm watch in effect"

 Today, Sunny and hot with a high around 100.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Although 44-45 and 45-46 had exceptionally warm Marches, DJF were cold. Jan 1945 in particular. 

As you can see, the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's and again the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's were exceptionally cooler than any of the last three decades in all three cities you provided. Some of the warm winters we saw in these last few decades weren't just "warm" but were exceptionally above normal. Winters like 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 , 2011-12 and 2015-16 were extremely warm winters nationwide. So there's been a definite warming trend in the last 100+ years. 

Oh there's no denying that we have had warm winters too. I wasn't saying anything against that, just talking about the impressive cold snaps we've had recently. Regardless of what city you look at or where their weather station was located at the time, its very interesting to see the plunge from mild winters of the 1950s too cold of the 1960-70s. For many areas that have 140, 150 years of weather records, the warmest winters were in the 1950s and the coldest in the 1970s. 

 

 The wildness of weather has always been around though, below are some of notoriously warm winters of yesteryear

1875-76

1877-78

1879-80

1881-82

1889-90

1905-06

1918-19

1920-21

1931-32

1948-49

1949-50

1952-53

[weathafella]

Didn’t euro seasonal have a good winter forecast for last winter at this time last year?

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Didn’t euro seasonal have a good winter forecast for last winter at this time last year?

Not just now but it was rocking us in the October and November forecasts. It busted spectacularly. LR models aren’t very accurate...even the best ones. Just another example. 

[Hazey]

Could be a late bloomer. Late feb to April kinda deal.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[weathafella]

57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not just now but it was rocking us in the October and November forecasts. It busted spectacularly. LR models aren’t very accurate...even the best ones. Just another example. 

It’s all about NAO (sorry Tip but sometimes it’s the difference between fun and frustration).   Had last years NAO cooperated we’d have been a lot happier in April covid notwithstanding.

[uncle W]

some winter forecasts last year were spectacular failures...the pessimism for next winter is high...to me the enso forecast looks like 2005 and 1995...1959 if la nina doesn't develop...I'm just talking oni numbers and not a winter forecast weatherwise...all three of those years had a major snowstorm in the northeast...I can see a fast start to winter but a long mild period before the next good pattern sets in...its three more months before reality hits us good or bad...

[uncle W]

in recent years NYC has been getting above average snowfall despite a positive nao on average...

DJFM monthly nao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park...

season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date...

1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17

1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22

1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16

1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9

1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13

1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8

1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6

1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13

1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26

1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7

2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7

2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10

2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28

2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14

2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27

2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3

2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1

2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12

2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28

2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12

2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6

2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1

[mahk_webstah]

Low expectations from early looks at winter seasonal outlooks means we don't have high expectations.  I like it better this way, than the drama of disappointment due to those high expectations.  It can only get bette!

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take a normal winter, and be very happy.  Doesn’t have to be anything fabulous, Average/normal works great around here.  

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

WOW.  At least you still finished with above average snowfall for the season, but I was just always under the impression that everyone in the Northeastern quarter of the country had a great Winter all the way through that year, even though my area with kind of ground zero. The only rain we had all Winter was the previously mentioned rain/ice storm just before Christmas, a little rain during the brief Jan thaw that snowstorms spoke of (that started as snow), a heavy rain Feb 20 that started as thundersnow, and a bit of nuisance light rain ahead of another snowstorm mid March. The winter saw 26 days at Detroit with 1"+ snowfall. 56 days in total saw measurable snow for the season, and when adding in the traces, a total of 92 days saw snow fall.

Jan. 1-4, 2014 averaged 26.8° BN.  Jan. 6-15 produced 3 rain events (middle one had 0.2" SN) with 3.29" total precip, at which point the month was running 4.2° BN with 3.46" precip (twice the avg) and 2.1" snow.  Rest of the month was slightly BN with 0.30" precip and 3.0" SN.  You can't make this stuff up.

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Absolutely horrific.

But 60" over the next 50 days once that month was done healed (almost) all wounds.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Jan. 1-4, 2014 averaged 26.8° BN.  Jan. 6-15 produced 3 rain events (middle one had 0.2" SN) with 3.29" total precip, at which point the month was running 4.2° BN with 3.46" precip (twice the avg) and 2.1" snow.  Rest of the month was slightly BN with 0.30" precip and 3.0" SN.  You can't make this stuff up.

I absolutely lost it in Jan 2014.  That was my melt down on here, we all have one.  Philly was on like their 4th winter storm warning and my yard was like 3-4” of clear frozen water....just huge puddles flash frozen in place.  Skiing was ice skating while everyone on here cheered about Leon bringing snow after snow south of the Pike.  F*ck Leon lol.

I’ve never seen anything like that... we’d go from brutal cold (snowstorm down south) to inches of rain, back to brutal cold (another snowstorm down south) then more inches of rain.

Its hard to fathom a month that averages so cold, with so much precip, could render so little snowfall.  There wasn’t even any upslope behind the rainers either.  Just flash freeze and dry.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Head to Denver lol. Heres a forecast you don't see everyday.

 

"Winter storm watch in effect"

 Today, Sunny and hot with a high around 100.

 

 

Yeah but it won’t stick because the ground .., right

[snowman19]

On 9/6/2020 at 1:35 AM, Snowy Hibbo said:

G’day everyone,

My first seasonal prediction for the NH this season:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/09/06/early-september-seasonal-2020-21-winter-preliminary-outlook/

Western & Central US and the Northern Alps to benefit from a Canadian Vortex/Aleutian High and +NAO driven weather outlook for the winter ahead from the preliminary look of factors (still got more to look at in coming weeks...).

Not looking as great for the Eastern US, could be okay for New England (compared to the Mid-Atlantic).

Just out of curiosity, what makes you say this looks like a modoki La Niña? It looks like a basin-wide event to me for sure, not so sure about it looking modoki though. The new CANSIPS would agree with a stronger La Niña: 

 

[CoastalWx]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I absolutely lost it in Jan 2014.  That was my melt down on here, we all have one.  Philly was on like their 4th winter storm warning and my yard was like 3-4” of clear frozen water....just huge puddles flash frozen in place.  Skiing was ice skating while everyone on here cheered about Leon bringing snow after snow south of the Pike.  F*ck Leon lol.

I’ve never seen anything like that... we’d go from brutal cold (snowstorm down south) to inches of rain, back to brutal cold (another snowstorm down south) then more inches of rain.

Its hard to fathom a month that averages so cold, with so much precip, could render so little snowfall.  There wasn’t even any upslope behind the rainers either.  Just flash freeze and dry.

Leon!! While it was fairly snowy, we had our share of rain events to evaporate a foot of snow in a few hours. 

[cny rider]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I absolutely lost it in Jan 2014.  That was my melt down on here, we all have one.  Philly was on like their 4th winter storm warning and my yard was like 3-4” of clear frozen water....just huge puddles flash frozen in place.  Skiing was ice skating while everyone on here cheered about Leon bringing snow after snow south of the Pike.  F*ck Leon lol.

I’ve never seen anything like that... we’d go from brutal cold (snowstorm down south) to inches of rain, back to brutal cold (another snowstorm down south) then more inches of rain.

Its hard to fathom a month that averages so cold, with so much precip, could render so little snowfall.  There wasn’t even any upslope behind the rainers either.  Just flash freeze and dry.

I remember it well because my wife was attending a conference at Stowe.

We spent a fortune, bundled up 3 kids for a 4 day trip, and had the worst conditions we've ever seen.  I mean worst conditions for any outdoor human activity, not just skiing.

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Keeping expectations low to perhaps moderate based on everything I've see thus far.  Hopefully I'm pleasantly surprised or we get lucky with mesoscale features or favorable nuances in the midst of a hostile pattern.  

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I absolutely lost it in Jan 2014.  That was my melt down on here, we all have one.  Philly was on like their 4th winter storm warning and my yard was like 3-4” of clear frozen water....just huge puddles flash frozen in place.  Skiing was ice skating while everyone on here cheered about Leon bringing snow after snow south of the Pike.  F*ck Leon lol.

I’ve never seen anything like that... we’d go from brutal cold (snowstorm down south) to inches of rain, back to brutal cold (another snowstorm down south) then more inches of rain.

Its hard to fathom a month that averages so cold, with so much precip, could render so little snowfall.  There wasn’t even any upslope behind the rainers either.  Just flash freeze and dry.

Not to belittle your anxiety for having suffered 2014, January through spring that year ... because if anything, apriori experience should lend to empathy for your plight. I know what it is like to pass through painfully less then entertaining eras as a winter weather enthusiast -

That said, try doing that uncanny thing from 1982 to 1987 ...

                                                             always -

Forgive me if I don't know how old you are, but that is getting into the 30's of years ago so you may have been too young to remember ... Of course there is a regional variance/relativity but I don't think the 1980s were particularly good for NNE either.  Whether it is you, or other folks suffering single seasons or even weeks contained within those that seem so horribly unjust .. as though metaphysically attacking that which ( neurotically ) we depend upon for endorphin highs ( haha ) .. I always push a tongue into cheek. The difference between suffering the breadth of 1980s compared to .. whatever injustice it is they are describing, is like a guy that just spent a night in County lecturing Auschwitz survivors about the conditions of their prison cell.

[tamarack]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to belittle your anxiety for having suffered 2014, January through spring that year ... because if anything, apriori experience should lend to empathy for your plight. I know what it is like to pass through painfully less then entertaining eras as a winter weather enthusiast -

That said, try doing that uncanny thing from 1982 to 1987 ...

                                                             always -

Forgive me if I don't know how old you are, but that is getting into the 30's of years ago so you may have been too young to remember ... Of course there is a regional variance/relativity but I don't think the 1980s were particularly good for NNE either.  Whether it is you, or other folks suffering single seasons or even weeks contained within those that seem so horribly unjust .. as though metaphysically attacking that which ( neurotically ) we depend upon for endorphin highs ( haha ) .. I always push a tongue into cheek. The difference between suffering the breadth of 1980s compared to .. whatever injustice it is they are describing, is like a guy that just spent a night in County lecturing Auschwitz survivors about the conditions of their prison cell.

I don't think anyone had bunches of months of the BN temps, AN precip and record low snowfall trifectas during those winters.  Also, 81-82, 83-84 and 86-87 were pretty good in NNE.  The first 2 were especially big winters in Fort Kent, the 3rd had 4 warned storms plus an advisory event in January to build the pack that produced the greatest peak flow ever recorded in Maine, on the Kennebec on 4/1/87.  

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I don't think anyone had bunches of months of the BN temps, AN precip and record low snowfall trifectas during those winters.  Also, 81-82, 83-84 and 86-87 were pretty good in NNE.  The first 2 were especially big winters in Fort Kent, the 3rd had 4 warned storms plus an advisory event in January to build the pack that produced the greatest peak flow ever recorded in Maine, on the Kennebec on 4/1/87.  

Yeah, like I 'implied' in that missive ... depends what region one hails their claims from ...

I know from having lived and suffered the vicissitudes of SNE's ( interior-east) climate from 1982 to 1986 ... this regional experience consisted of repeating seasons characterized as cold refreeze over brick Earth --> warm up rain --> frigid cementing... over and over unrelenting, the vast majority ... with low specific snow precip type events.  We've had warmer temperature seasons with larger snow aggregation.

But like you say, it may have been better in  NNE- I don't recall those winters specifically being notorious at either individual event or seasonal scope and scale up that way.  But that could be wrong.

[backedgeapproaching]

26 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I don't think anyone had bunches of months of the BN temps, AN precip and record low snowfall trifectas during those winters.  Also, 81-82, 83-84 and 86-87 were pretty good in NNE.  The first 2 were especially big winters in Fort Kent, the 3rd had 4 warned storms plus an advisory event in January to build the pack that produced the greatest peak flow ever recorded in Maine, on the Kennebec on 4/1/87.  

Looking ay the most reliable COOP in SVT (Peru) snowfall is almost identical for the 1980s and 2010-20. Average snowdepth is a little higher in the 1980s. Interestingly, 2010-20 is the only decade without a max depth over 40".  Records started in the 1940s.

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, tamarack said:

Jan. 1-4, 2014 averaged 26.8° BN.  Jan. 6-15 produced 3 rain events (middle one had 0.2" SN) with 3.29" total precip, at which point the month was running 4.2° BN with 3.46" precip (twice the avg) and 2.1" snow.  Rest of the month was slightly BN with 0.30" precip and 3.0" SN.  You can't make this stuff up.

I'm the first person to caution my fellow weenies that temp departures are just one piece of the puzzle. Yes you want cold overall, but cold and dry or warm and snowy are easily attainable. But that combination in that winter that you just described, at your latitude, truly can't make up. The few rains we had that winter only acted to solidify the snowpack.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, cny rider said:

I remember it well because my wife was attending a conference at Stowe.

We spent a fortune, bundled up 3 kids for a 4 day trip, and had the worst conditions we've ever seen.  I mean worst conditions for any outdoor human activity, not just skiing.

 

I guess I really was in my snow bubble in Jan 2014. I didn't realize that was happening in NNE.

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to belittle your anxiety for having suffered 2014, January through spring that year ... because if anything, apriori experience should lend to empathy for your plight. I know what it is like to pass through painfully less then entertaining eras as a winter weather enthusiast -

That said, try doing that uncanny thing from 1982 to 1987 ...

                                                             always -

Forgive me if I don't know how old you are, but that is getting into the 30's of years ago so you may have been too young to remember ... Of course there is a regional variance/relativity but I don't think the 1980s were particularly good for NNE either.

People are constantly bemoaning the winters of the 1980s in this forum, so I finally decided to take a look into what went on around here in NVT.  It really seems as though there’s some sort of local bias coming into play with regard to that decade.  I don’t remember the winters being especially “unwintry”, and that was in the Champlain Valley, where snowfall and snowpack are far less consistent than out in the local mountains.

Some of my most vivid memories from that era are of hating with a passion the brutal cold and wind that would plague us as we’d make our way the roughly ¼ mile to the bus stop each day.  There was no shelter where we had to stand, and we’d do our best to sort of huddle behind the sign marking the entrance to our neighborhood to attempt to get at least a slight respite from the brutal weather.  That’s easily chalked up to recall bias based on how painful those days were, and even above average is still quite cold in winter here, but that, not a lack of winter, is what immediately comes to the fore when I think of the winter weather in the 80s.

Average annual snowfall at BTV for the 1980s is 71.62” vs. the long-term average of 72.8”, so it would be surprising if there was any statistically significant difference between them.  And for the 1982-1987 stretch you mentioned above, the average annual snowfall is 77.7”, so that really doesn’t speak to overtly painful winters for a winter weather enthusiast unless there was some sort of outrageous variability that’s not apparent in the data without some further digging.

Based on the other NNE-related numbers and comments that I’m seeing in the thread, it’s starting to look like the issues for winter weather enthusiasts in the 1980s might have been more localized?

[ORH_wxman]

You can include the first 3 winters of the 1990s in the bad period of the 1980s....and also 1978-1979/1979-1980. 78-79 was probably decent in NNE but it was utter trash in SNE. Rain/cold/whiff/rain/cold pattern.

For ORH, there were 3 above average winters (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987) for snowfall and two near-average winters (1987-1988 and 1982-1983) in the 14 year period. But the clunkers were pretty bad. The freeze/thaw cycles were e bad in 1984-1985 and 1985-1986. Add onto that 4 consecutive garbage winters from 1988-89 through 1991-92 (you could argue 1989-90 wasn’t THAT bad), it’s not a fond set of memories. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can include the first 3 winters of the 1990s in the bad period of the 1980s....and also 1978-1979/1979-1980. 78-79 was probably decent in NNE but it was utter trash in SNE. Rain/cold/whiff/rain/cold pattern.

For ORH, there were 3 above average winters (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987) for snowfall and two near-average winters (1987-1988 and 1982-1983) in the 14 year period. But the clunkers were pretty bad. The freeze/thaw cycles were e bad in 1984-1985 and 1985-1986. Add onto that 4 consecutive garbage winters from 1988-89 through 1991-92 (you could argue 1989-90 wasn’t THAT bad), it’s not a fond set of memories. 

The "good" in the 1980s was mostly in the far north.  The 1980s were Farmington co-op's worst for snow with 73.5" average compared to the long-term average of 90".  1979-80 and 80-81 are 2nd lowest and lowest snowfall winters they've recorded.  For 79-80 thru 84-85, my last 6 winters in Fort Kent, they recorded an average of 68"/year while I measured 127"/yr.  If I (or some Methuselah) had recorded Fort Kent at my locations there from 1893 on, their average would probably be about 120" compared to Farmington's 90.