Winter 2020-2021

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Randolph received 15" from that March 2011 storm. I'd take it. Sorry ORH.  

You and I will likely be rooting for very similar stuff on the whole... from NW upslope set ups to synoptic storms.  Sometimes we’ll have differences but by and large compared to the general forum, we’ll be rooting in the same outcomes.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You and I will likely be rooting for very similar stuff on the whole... from NW upslope set ups to synoptic storms.  Sometimes we’ll have differences but by and large compared to the general forum, we’ll be rooting in the same outcomes.

I can't wait. Glad summer seems to be dead.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. 

I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now. 

 

7 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

You won't get unbiased LR forecasts from snow-lovers, no matter the pedigree. 

That has zero to do with my actual outlook. Its simply a base ENSO composite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like the QBO has finally decided to make up its mind, it jumped up to +4.78 last month and has been slowly rising since May. Would assume a +QBO winter at this point....

Agree.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I didn’t realize 30+ in that one got so far north, looks like probably some mid-level high ratio band from like Rutland to Rangley but that’s a classic NW New England screwjie while SE New England has cars trapped on highways.

Once the storm was East there were some heavy bands rotating in that area and piled up the snow, I think I got about a foot from the banding.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It’s just climo unfortunately.  Everyone has their tracks.  Though I wish we could sign up for Dec 5-6 2003 all the time... 18” for Scooter and 18” up here... 8”+ for the whole forum pretty much.

If only we could do this type of widespread dump all the time:

My tears are falling....

[weathafella]

September look.....what do you think?

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, the Berks and Litchfield did really well in that storm.  I look at it not NNE vs SNE, but WNE vs ENE .

And ENE got squat.  We were forecast for advisory level snow but by the time the cold air arrived the precip was about done - just a few flakes here.  Fitting end to a crummy snow season.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It's like that everywhere. In the MA forum, I used to torment the posters from central and northern VA because when they turn to sleet it means I am getting hammered with snow.

 Yes. In the lakes forum we are close group but honestly a lot of the time what's good for much of them is not good for me,  and whats good for me is often a swing and miss for them.  There are exceptions, like "bowling ball" storms, but at the end of the day everyone routes for their own backyard.

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

Northern Maine got fringed by 1978, about 2".  And while they did okay with the "Mayor Lindsey" storm in early Feb 1969, the big dog in late month was mainly a whiff.  VT had huge variation that month, BTV getting 17" and St. Johnsbury 60, BTV 6" from the late month dump vs. 35" for St.J.
The March 2011 storm dumped 19" at Eustis while 40 miles SSE we had a lot of RA followed by 2" IP then enough ZR to take out power.  Bad memories - my spinal stenosis symptoms (I had no idea yet on what was going on) were getting worse.  Had a day-long forestry conference in Orono and my wife was house sitting near BGR.  Got home at 8, all was dark and the house about 45 inside with teens outside.  Usually I'm quite cold-tolerant but that night I just couldn't get warm, even under a pile of blankets and the woodstove going full blast.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Wagons west?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Wagons west?

That would be an electrical bath for all of New England probably....lol.

Though in reality, looking at that longwave ridge position out west, the whole thing would be shoved well southeast in the winter polar jet environment.

 

That's an incredible airmass for early September in the plains though....they might get some snow into western Nebraska and not just the Rockies foothills.

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

Also looks like it will be -PDO and -AMO. Are there any Niña analogs which also featured those same PDO/AMO states?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Also looks like it will be -PDO and -AMO. Are there any Niña analogs which also featured those same PDO/AMO states?

AMO is pretty staunchly positive on last update...at least on CPC. Most Ninas in the late 1960s/1970s had -PDO/-AMO. 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 did too, though the AMO was barely negative those years....doubt it had much of an influence.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

September look.....what do you think?

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just based upon the veneer of this product, the present Atlantic SST anom distribution has lost it's tripole.

For those less aware ... tripolar distribution of anomalies is correlated with -NAO ... The correlation is not 1::1 of course... there are seasons where the correlation pops more or less coherently - last year may be one of those where/when there yet tripolar look vs the NAO were distracting.  But, this particular product up there appears really about as uniform NOT tripolar as I can recall the Basin ever getting its state into - which is interesting as an aside, because as of spring there still was tripole evidenced.  

One would not think summer season would be conducive to wind stressing though - the primary SST pooling mechanism.

Be that as it may, it is important to understand that second "S" in the abbreviation stands for "surface"( in SST).  I've always been a bit sideways looking when SST-reliance correlates with atmospheric modes.  Because, I'm not even sure what that means in absolute sense: surface.  6 ft of buoy dipstick depth?  I'm not sure what is measured as 'surface' in the field/industry.  But my point is, beneath the "surface" there can be strata where there's like a 'thermal momentum' lagging or perhaps more indicative of the real state of the system ... masked by transient looks and so forth.  Then, a change in the mechanical pattern of sea stressing by circulation/seasonal modulation exposes a different truth.  We actually see this in the PDO quite frequently ...where instra seasonal ( or even time lengths of seasonal for that matter ) can cause interruptions in an otherwise smooth ~ 30 year periodicity of (+)(-) Pacific -Decadal -Oscillation.  The Atlantic seems also to respond faster to short duration modulating wind patterns - which in a pure ballast sense of it probably makes sense considering it's a smaller mass.    Does the class now fully realize the goal of a splitting migraine ? 

Tripolar was more prevalently as of this recent spring, but given Jerry's post, at least as far as the surface goes the season appears to have abolished. We'll have to see as autumn reigns in a new regime of sea stressing, if this new look doesn't prove superficial.  Oh..and, tripolar means there's a more obvious cool band intervening two warm bands, all three extending between the continents - 

Having said all that... I have seen more snow and cold here in NE during neutral positive NAO, since the aggrandized marketing campaign over the NAO took place in the late 1980s through the mid 1990s when it's popularity became so extreme it actually changed the genetics that scaffolds human brain neuro-physiology so profoundly that we are in fact a new species incapable of seeing anything else in reality as having a separate physics.  In fact, if the world fails to negotiate a mid-east peace treaty after 5,000 years of pathos heredity in that region of the world, goddamn that motherf'n NAO!   So with that, I think it will take decades to prove that the NAO is not what everyone thinks it is - and I've actually been hammering this point for 15 years...  yet, people still don't even understand how to use it. Which makes much of this missive kind of moot then, huh - 

What I also find interesting is that this historic super-position of solar minima curves ...that in theory superimposed makes this minimum extra super dooper minimum... should have a demonstrative PDO and AMO correlation - as the solar curve has a very convincing correlation coefficients with these oceanic teleconnectors - I think tripolar is actually the correlation with solar minimum .. this above may in fact be odd relative to that assumption.

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

AMO is pretty staunchly positive on last update...at least on CPC. Most Ninas in the late 1960s/1970s had -PDO/-AMO. 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 did too, though the AMO was barely negative those years....doubt it had much of an influence.

Thank you. Another question, which ones were +QBO? And do you think the QBO state matters? 

[bwt3650]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You and I will likely be rooting for very similar stuff on the whole... from NW upslope set ups to synoptic storms.  Sometimes we’ll have differences but by and large compared to the general forum, we’ll be rooting in the same outcomes.

Spending a good deal of the winter up at jay; there’s three of us!

[Ginx snewx]

Get ya in da mood

 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Spending a good deal of the winter up at jay; there’s three of us!

I’m jealous.  If the Canadian border doesn’t open, that place is going to be a once in a lifetime powder party with 50% less skiers.  I truly think the locals up there are in for something special from a skiing standpoint... I mean millions of people cut off at the border a few miles away in Quebec/Montreal and suburbs, and Americans have to drive past every other ski area to get there, and they aren’t on a multi-mtn pass.  Place could be legit empty with that snowfall...wow.  I’m jealous, if there’s one place that you could grab the most possible powder turns this winter, it’s Jay hands down... it is in most winters anyway, but close Canada border traffic and it’s like a private powder party.

[Ginx snewx]

17 hours ago, weathafella said:

September look.....what do you think?

 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Epic January incoming 

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Epic January incoming 

Believe me that's the first thing that came to mind!  You and I went big and people laughed at us.  Who's laughing now......

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Believe me that's the first thing that came to mind!  You and I went big and people laughed at us.  Who's laughing now......

JMA on our side right now

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Believe me that's the first thing that came to mind!  You and I went big and people laughed at us.  Who's laughing now......

Sign me up for  January 2011 too... wasn't the same as yours but it was more than serviceable as we seemed to at least get 8-12" in a couple of those events.

That entire winter was awesome though on the whole.

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sign me up for  January 2011 too... wasn't the same as yours but it was more than serviceable as we seemed to at least get 8-12" in a couple of those events.

That entire winter was awesome though on the whole.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks more like a 2013-2014 pattern with the big -EPO/+PNA and raging +NAO. Not that there’s anything wrong with that really...very good winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks more like a 2013-2014 pattern with the big -EPO/+PNA and raging +NAO. Not that there’s anything wrong with that really...very good winter. 

An absolutely epic winter here. Even a watered down version i would take it and run.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

An absolutely epic winter here. Even a watered down version i would take it and run.

Yeah over there it was an all timer for both snow and cold...some of the folks to your west had their coldest winter on record. Even Duluth MN which had records go back to the 1860s missed their coldest on record by like 0.2F or something ridiculous...the old record being like 1873-1874 or something like that I recall. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

You know it seems like it’s been many years since we’ve had a bona fide across polar flow  Talkin plane departs Chelyabinsk and doesn’t stop until Atlanta Georgia

now I wasn’t paying attention and 2013 or 2015 for that matter back east here… But I don’t know if those were actually cross polar constructs and not just occasional dumps over the Alaskan sector out of a favorable EPO

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know it seems like it’s been many years since we’ve had a bona fide across polar flow  Talkin plane departs Chelyabinsk and doesn’t stop until Atlanta Georgia

Yeah we haven’t had a lot of that since the 2013-2014 to 2014-2015 winters....been a lot more zonal patterns since then, although 2017-2018 was pretty meridional at times...esp when we got that obscene late December arctic outbreak where we spent the better part of a week below 10F...though even that one wasn’t as deeply penetrating as some of those classic ones like from, say, early Feb 96 (circa weather channel reporting Tower MN got to -60F) or even back to back Dec 2009 and 2010 when we had deeply frozen orange crops into central FL. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah over there it was an all timer for both snow and cold...some of the folks to your west had their coldest winter on record. Even Duluth MN which had records go back to the 1860s missed their coldest on record by like 0.2F or something ridiculous...the old record being like 1873-1874 or something like that I recall. 

 

it was crazy for many reasons. In addition to deep snow for months, it didn't make sense that we were seeing so much snow with that extreme cold. On (the few) days when it wasn't snowing there was constant blowing and drifting snow. I've never seen anything like it. If the snowpack wasn't so densely packed powder from all the drifting the depths would have been more insane. The wind was constant all winter. The polar vortex in early Jan was unlike anything I'd ever felt...-50 wind chills (what would that be like -70 with the old formula?), the pic below I took my glove off just to snap the sunset and it felt numb in seconds. Little did I know that it was only the beginning of nonstop snow. Snowbanks and ice in the river lasted to mid or late April, and ice flows on Lake Superior lasted into early June.