Winter 2020-2021

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

2010 comes to mind on that.

yep.  So does the one several years back when they couldnt miss.  I think it was back end of 17-18' but don't hold me to it.  I"m sure Yoda can chime in to refresh our memories.

 

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

+1 may lower the ratios a bit... 2010 comes to mind on that, Wouldn't be the first time rolling around on the ground groaning in pain though.

bragger.........

man i wish i had the leeway to say such things here in the Northern MA.  I'm usually a razors edge from jipville 

I need to find a new wife that likes snow, cause its one of a very few things holding me back from making NE subforum my new home.  

edit -  just thinking about it, maybe weatherfella and I could do a house swap .  I'll throw in some extra $$ for the 4 hour car ride to KPIT from my house.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, pasnownut said:

yep.  So does the one several years back when they couldnt miss.  I think it was back end of 17-18' but don't hold me to it.  I"m sure Yoda can chime in to refresh our memories.

 

Tail end of 2017-2018 was a blockbuster period for SNE. I had about 40 inches in March 2018.

The true M.A. blockbuster year was 2009-2010. They did do very well late in 2014-2015 and also late in 2013-2014.

[dryslot]

Just now, pasnownut said:

bragger.........

man i wish i had the leeway to say such things here in the Northern MA.  I'm usually a razors edge from jipville 

I need to find a new wife that likes snow, cause its one of a very few things holding me back from making NE subforum my new home.  

 

Being on the coastal plain here has risk/reward, But i'm never to far from the snow if its not here, NW and Northern Maine usually do quite well annually.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tail end of 2017-2018 was a blockbuster period for SNE. I had about 40 inches in March 2018.

The true M.A. blockbuster year was 2009-2010. They did do very well late in 2014-2015 and also late in 2013-2014.

14-15' was the one i was thinking of.  they had a trifecta, and I was doing the Dryslot groan up here.  Nada.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Being on the coastal plain here has risk/reward, But i'm never to far from the snow if its not here, NW and Northern Maine usually do quite well annually.

Ogunquit has been my farthest north trip into ME.  Honeymoon, and vowed to get back.....before 20 yr anniversary.....

I'll celebrate 28 this fall.  Still on the list.  My god that town is a postcard paradise.  You live in a beautiful region.  Like you, I often get screwed, but just nw of me can get into the goods, and I'm usually a couple hour drive to snow.  

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

for him.....it is......

It's always funny every year how when the very first discussions of the coming Winter begin, even those of us at northern latitudes look at temperature departure maps first. In reality mild winters can be snowy and cold winters can be dry. Obviously you still want to see a map covered in blue over covered in red, but I can't say I dislike the look of a weak La Nina, at least here in the southern great lakes.

[powderfreak]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was a sneaky big storm for MA....really only SE MA got screwed

 

Put that map next to the one from ALY and that is probably one of the more underrated storms ever in the northeast, haha.  The rest of the winter will forever over-shadow that event.... but 18”+ from the Boston suburbs all the way past ALB into the Mohawk Valley is big.  

Also looks like the lower elevations of CT River Valley did well (20s near Springfield) and Hudson River Valley got crushed with 20-26” in the ALB area.... rare to see a long duration storm like that not screw the valleys.

But again I think the rest of the winter will over-shadow that storm in the memory banks.

[backedgeapproaching]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Put that map next to the one from ALY and that is probably one of the more underrated storms ever in the northeast, haha.  The rest of the winter will forever over-shadow that event.... but 18”+ from the Boston suburbs all the way past ALB into the Mohawk Valley is big.  

Also looks like the lower elevations of CT River Valley did well (20s near Springfield) and Hudson River Valley got crushed with 20-26” in the ALB area.... rare to see a long duration storm like that not screw the valleys.

But again I think the rest of the winter will over-shadow that storm in the memory banks.

Yea, no valley/downslope screw jobs in that east/west jack zone. Even Bennington had 20-24".

[NorEastermass128]

Meh on the coast. 5” that melted within a few days. 
 

We’re way overdue for some north shore CJs with OES enhancement. One that drops 8-10” in Woburn and 18-20” in Gloucester. 

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Meh on the coast. 5” that melted within a few days. 
 

We’re way overdue for some north shore CJs with OES enhancement. One that drops 8-10” in Woburn and 18-20” in Gloucester. 

That's usually reserved for the big KU events, but even Gloucester is usually too far east for that. That's more cstl north shore in Essex county like Salem/Peabody. Usually winds aloft start turning east and pumping moisture off the water, while winds near and just inland from the coast are north. 1/2/14 was one that was not a classic KU...but they have wind off of 40+ SSTs into air that was barely above 0F. Absolute fluff bomb for Essex county, especially that area near Boxford.

[DavisStraight]

5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Ogunquit has been my farthest north trip into ME.  Honeymoon, and vowed to get back.....before 20 yr anniversary.....

I'll celebrate 28 this fall.  Still on the list.  My god that town is a postcard paradise.  You live in a beautiful region.  Like you, I often get screwed, but just nw of me can get into the goods, and I'm usually a couple hour drive to snow.  

 

Spent a long weekend there, my sister has a house there, wouldn't mind moving there for good.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Put that map next to the one from ALY and that is probably one of the more underrated storms ever in the northeast, haha.  The rest of the winter will forever over-shadow that event.... but 18”+ from the Boston suburbs all the way past ALB into the Mohawk Valley is big.  

Also looks like the lower elevations of CT River Valley did well (20s near Springfield) and Hudson River Valley got crushed with 20-26” in the ALB area.... rare to see a long duration storm like that not screw the valleys.

But again I think the rest of the winter will over-shadow that storm in the memory banks.

I think I got porked on that storm by 10 miles, it was a sharp cutoff from 10 to 22+

[pasnownut]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's always funny every year how when the very first discussions of the coming Winter begin, even those of us at northern latitudes look at temperature departure maps first. In reality mild winters can be snowy and cold winters can be dry. Obviously you still want to see a map covered in blue over covered in red, but I can't say I dislike the look of a weak La Nina, at least here in the southern great lakes.

absolutely.  Even down here, +1 is not a kiss of death, but just narrows goalposts a bit.  

[dendrite]

I think I’d rather take my chances with +1 up here. 

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think I’d rather take my chances with +1 up here. 

Empirically, I think you still want below average temps, though the variance is high. 2016-2017 sticks out like a sore thumb.

I sorted the winters in your sig based on snowfall. (I estimate the 2019-2020 snowfall...CON had 46 but you prob had at least 15-20" more I'm betting)

 

If we sorted by precip, it would have a higher correlation I'm sure. (i.e., temps matter, but less than precip)

[dendrite]

Well I was looking at it differently...near even chances of snow without the bone chilling cold. Probably less of a likelihood of losing out versus locations to my south as well.

[powderfreak]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That's usually reserved for the big KU events, but even Gloucester is usually too far east for that. That's more cstl north shore in Essex county like Salem/Peabody. Usually winds aloft start turning east and pumping moisture off the water, while winds near and just inland from the coast are north. 1/2/14 was one that was not a classic KU...but they have wind off of 40+ SSTs into air that was barely above 0F. Absolute fluff bomb for Essex county, especially that area near Boxford.

My college girlfriend was from Boxford... I remember spending a bunch of time there over 3 years.  They got absolutely pummeled in a few storms around 2005 time frame.  It seemed like every single big storm the Topsfield/Danvers/Boxford/Ipswich was 24-36" for a time there from like 2003-2005.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well I was looking at it differently...near even chances of snow without the bone chilling cold. Probably less of a likelihood of losing out versus locations to my south as well.

Ha I'm with you.  I've been on the +1 train for a while but Will has always been able to show that as a wrong assumption with BTV data, but their climo definitely probably favors cold in the valley.  Maybe the difference is we tend to "jackpot" more in a +1 to +2 or something regime because we are on the gradient line.... maybe it's snowier on the whole in a colder regime?  But I still think we have a better chance of being in the sweet spot of storms in a bit warmer pattern.... ie last winter.  But last winter's overall snowfall wasn't great, but we jacked in quite a few storms, haha.  Even got a couple CCBs which seem rare up here.

It probably has more to do with a jackpot or sweet spot of individual storms vs. overall seasonal snowfall total.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like another hideous La Niña winter. We are in a stretch of 80’s winters for the next couple years at least 

[PhineasC]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Empirically, I think you still want below average temps, though the variance is high. 2016-2017 sticks out like a sore thumb.

I sorted the winters in your sig based on snowfall. (I estimate the 2019-2020 snowfall...CON had 46 but you prob had at least 15-20" more I'm betting)

 

If we sorted by precip, it would have a higher correlation I'm sure. (i.e., temps matter, but less than precip)

2015-2016 really was horrible for you guys, wasn't it?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, PhineasC said:

2015-2016 really was horrible for you guys, wasn't it?

It was bad especially in the temp department, but locally for snowfall it was near normal. We had two snow events in April that saved it. I know it’s April, but the second snow event was powder...even during the day. This last winter was my first real shit winter since 11-12. 15-16 was pretty bad iirc in nrn MA and into Srn NH relative to normal. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

2015-2016 really was horrible for you guys, wasn't it?

In the past 25 years at Stowe, there hasn’t been another winter within even 75” of that one.  We got 154”.  The next closest contestant in 25 years is like 2011-12 with 246”.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In the past 25 years at Stowe, there hasn’t been another winter within even 75” of that one.  We got 154”.  The next closest contestant in 25 years is like 2011-12 with 246”.  

That was when you mentioned talking to the mtn, saying "I know you are doing your job with orographics...I know you are..it's just not happening this year."   

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

2015-2016 really was horrible for you guys, wasn't it?

Welcome to Christmas in the NNE Mtns that year, Phin.

Only time since 1954 without even a trace of snow at the Mansfield COOP.  I honestly never thought it was possible to do before 2015.  I mean, at 4000ft there isn't even ice bulges on the cliffs, nothing at all.  Not even a drift.  Just bare ground straight to the summits.  It might as well have been mid-October.  We'll never see anything like that again is my guess.

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That was when you mentioned talking to the mtn, saying "I know you are doing your job with orographics...I know you are..it's just not happening this year."   

Haha, yeah.  Old timers hanging outside the ski bars... shaking their mugs like begging for coins. 

It truly is amazing for that spot to be so snowless.  Especially the Christmas time period.  We opened the summer zip line down from the top of the Gondola for Christmas break!  That's one you tell the grandkids someday. 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Welcome to Christmas in the NNE Mtns that year, Phin.

Only time since 1954 without even a trace of snow at the Mansfield COOP.  I honestly never thought it was possible to do before 2015.  I mean, at 4000ft there isn't even ice bulges on the cliffs, nothing at all.  Not even a drift.  Just bare ground straight to the summits.  It might as well have been mid-October.  We'll never see anything like that again is my guess.

That picture is like one of those pictures of a starving emaciated polar bear standing on some melting ice up north.  

[dryslot]

41 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

2015-2016 really was horrible for you guys, wasn't it?

50.1" when i avg 72", Awful.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

50.1" when i avg 72", Awful.

Well I average similar and had 33".

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Well I average similar and had 33".

What? Really? I thought i was bad, Wow.