ORH_wxman Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Didn't see a thread yet for next winter. We're getting past the "spring barrier" for ENSO forecasts....which means we're emerging into a clearer picture of what it will look like in that region going into fall. There isstill uncertainty, but it is reduced compared to a few weeks ago. We're currently looking like we will be heading into La Nina after a weak El Nino. Here's the latest ECWMF and C3S (used to be EuroSIP) plots: They are pointing toward weak El Nino by fall....we'll see if that develops further into a moderate/stronger forecast as summer wears on. There are some very cold anomalies in the eastern region at depth, so it's possible that it could translate into something more than a weak Nina if we start getting easterly feedback. Anyway, there is precedent for La Nina winters following a weak El Nino....most recent examples are: 2007-2008 2005-2006 1995-1996 1970-1971 3 of those 4 years were pretty strong winters in New England. The outlier was 2005-2006, though all 4 had big Decembers. The QBO looks to be going negative (though it's not in a hurry at the moment)....that would make '07-'08, '05-'06 and '70-'71 the best matches. '70-'71 and '07-'08 were pretty potent La Ninas (both high-end moderate or borderline strong) while '05-'06 was not. It remains to be seen where this one is headed. There is evidence in both directions. I'm kind of leaning moderate at the moment with the big subsurface anomalies and the model guidance already going solidly weak Nina....I feel like the guidance tends to underestimate the strength historically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Will the elusive -NAO appear lol. Usually tougher to do with Nina, but it’s happened before. Nina is the talk that I hear as well. Hopefully a nice early start to winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2020 Author Share Posted June 16, 2020 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Will the elusive -NAO appear lol. Usually tougher to do with Nina, but it’s happened before. Nina is the talk that I hear as well. Hopefully a nice early start to winter. I'm also wondering if we're finally going to change the PAC up a bit....all that heat in the eastern PAC to the north of ENSO region (like off coast of Baja and CA) is eroding more than most recent years. Still not there yet, but something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm also wondering if we're finally going to change the PAC up a bit....all that heat in the eastern PAC to the north of ENSO region (like off coast of Baja and CA) is eroding more than most recent years. Still not there yet, but something to track Would probably lead to a weaker STJ? Probably not a bad thing. I feel like it's been active recently..although that's anecdotal off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Well the last two winters were Nino’s, right?, so it can’t get any worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 20 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Will the elusive -NAO appear lol. Usually tougher to do with Nina, but it’s happened before. Nina is the talk that I hear as well. Hopefully a nice early start to winter. Well Scott, Your last sentence has me thinking, Last year I think December 1-2 dumped a lot in Nashua, then, well we all know how the rest of winter played out. I hope all is well with all members and their families, never too early to think about winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Love an early start...kind of with Kevin on that one with a snowy December, despite climo being a little hostile for me, locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2020 Author Share Posted June 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Love an early start...kind of with Kevin on that one with a snowy December, despite climo being a little hostile for me, locally. Yeah I'm a huge fan of December snow....which is why I couldn't rank last season an F. We had pack here for like 27 out of 31 days and 27" total. That is an excellent month. Would have been better without that hideous cutter around 12/8-12/9 but at least we refreshed right after that with a 5-6 incher. I'm still waiting for a Dec 1995 though....basically where we run the table in December. Those are hard to get. All of our recent good Decembers that had big events before Xmas had black marks on them....2007, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2019...2009 was ok, but even that had the ugly cutter right after Xmas. Latitude is really important in December though....moreso than other winter months including March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm a huge fan of December snow....which is why I couldn't rank last season an F. We had pack here for like 27 out of 31 days and 27" total. That is an excellent month. Would have been better without that hideous cutter around 12/8-12/9 but at least we refreshed right after that with a 5-6 incher. I'm still waiting for a Dec 1995 though....basically where we run the table in December. Those are hard to get. All of our recent good Decembers that had big events before Xmas had black marks on them....2007, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2019...2009 was ok, but even that had the ugly cutter right after Xmas. Latitude is really important in December though....moreso than other winter months including March. Yeah, I'd love to see 1995 again. Epic month. So many good memories. I think Christmas morning it was like 5F out with a foot OTG. A true Christmas of yore. I'll have to watch Schwoegler's video again for that storm a few days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Where do i sign on 07-08 and 70-71? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Where do i sign on 07-08 and 70-71? I was 2-3 years old living in FL for 70-71 but I experienced 07-08 in all of it's glory. I'll take that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Just now, mreaves said: I was 2-3 years old living in FL for 70-71 but I experienced 07-08 in all of it's glory. I'll take that any day. 70-71, #2 in my top 5, 07-08, #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Just make it snow a lot. It’s pathetic when winter feels like spring and spring feels like winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 3, 2020 Share Posted July 3, 2020 Welp... guess winter 2020 is over per the CANSIPS https://mobile.twitter.com/chris_sowers/status/1278428240760262656 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 2010-2011 was a La Niña, but it was accompanied by a strong -NAO. 2005-2006 was a mild winter, but featured significant winter storms in each month, December-March, including the epic February ‘06 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 4, 2020 Author Share Posted July 4, 2020 20 hours ago, yoda said: Welp... guess winter 2020 is over per the CANSIPS https://mobile.twitter.com/chris_sowers/status/1278428240760262656 Looks similar aloft to ‘07-‘08 actually. Wouldn’t be surprising at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 It’s early but my initial sense is big ratter. I plan to spend a lot of time in VT 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s early but my initial sense is big ratter. I plan to spend a lot of time in VT Last year’s ratter was right up there with 01-02, 11-12. Might as well get another out of the way during the pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 41 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Last year’s ratter was right up there with 01-02, 11-12. Might as well get another out of the way during the pandemic. I don’t think it was as bad but on the next tier up. That said, there’s no ratter like a nina ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: I don’t think it was as bad but on the next tier up. That said, there’s no ratter like a nina ratter. It was that bad here. The big early Dec storm dropped 5” after 80% rain to begin with as just inland was ripping. Finished the season with about 19”. Probably 5 or 6 days with snow cover. That’s horrific, even for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 2 hours ago, weathafella said: It’s early but my initial sense is big ratter. I plan to spend a lot of time in VT Don't bring a SNE jinx up here! We had our own struggle this past winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 18 hours ago, mreaves said: Don't bring a SNE jinx up here! We had our own struggle this past winter. I think you guys were maybe 25% sub normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 19 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: It was that bad here. The big early Dec storm dropped 5” after 80% rain to begin with as just inland was ripping. Finished the season with about 19”. Probably 5 or 6 days with snow cover. That’s horrific, even for the coast. Maybe it was the 70s in January that made it reasonable..., My snow was my lowest since I moved into this house but that’s only 5 years. You’re right thought..l.a major ratter but 2011-12 and 2001-02 felt worse. This WS more along the lines of 1994-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think you guys were maybe 25% sub normal? The problem wasn't really with the amount of snow, it was with retention. That's my weather fetish. I'll take nickle and dime events all winter long, I just don't want to lose any of it along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 On 7/4/2020 at 11:18 AM, TheCloser24 said: 2010-2011 was a La Niña, but it was accompanied by a strong -NAO. 2005-2006 was a mild winter, but featured significant winter storms in each month, December-March, including the epic February ‘06 blizzard. 2005-06 was my only winter in the past 50+ years that failed to produce a storm 6"+. It's a member of my bottom 5 Maine winters, with 1973-74, 1979-80, 2009-10 and 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, tamarack said: 2005-06 was my only winter in the past 50+ years that failed to produce a storm 6"+. It's a member of my bottom 5 Maine winters, with 1973-74, 1979-80, 2009-10 and 2015-16. Yeah your area got the shaft that winter....you missed the big December fun in both directions (12/9 to the south and 12/25-26 to the north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 We dont know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 I said ratter but true...it’s way too early. I think I can take a reasonable wag around Labor Day. On the plus side...we’re due for decency in winter sort of. I’m still coming for you mreaves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I said ratter but true...it’s way too early. I think I can take a reasonable wag around Labor Day. On the plus side...we’re due for decency in winter sort of. I’m still coming for you mreaves! We've been getting a bunch of warm Januarys/Februarys recently after a string of cold ones in the 2009-2015 time range. Hopefully we can swing it back cold this winter. 2019 was kind of cold in Jan/Feb but we had so many cutters mixed in that it didn't feel like it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah your area got the shaft that winter....you missed the big December fun in both directions (12/9 to the south and 12/25-26 to the north) That Christmas night + storm is CAR's biggest at 33" and change. Same at Fort Kent where the co-op recorded 32". Eastern had a member from FK then and he measured 37". Given the one-a-day and seemingly lackadaisical reporting from the co-op, I think the higher number is more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now