Solidsting Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 i was outside drinking my coffee and as of 1130 the low level clouds here are breaking up. lots of sun starting to poke thru. i see a line starting to form sw of indianapolis. i wonder if thats the start of the main line that will blow thru northern ohio and southeast michigan later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 NWS GRR warning for Van Buren, Allegan, and Ottawa Counties mentions 85 mph winds. Quote 744 WWUS53 KGRR 101532 SVSGRR Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1132 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 MIC005-139-159-101645- /O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200610T1645Z/ Allegan MI-Van Buren MI-Ottawa MI- 1132 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EDT FOR ALLEGAN...NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA COUNTIES... At 1132 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Holland SP to near Saugatuck to near Fennville to 8 miles northeast of South Haven, moving northeast at 65 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...85 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Holland... Grand Haven... Allegan... South Haven... Hudsonville... Zeeland... Coopersville... Ferrysburg... Spring Lake... Bangor... Fennville... Saugatuck... Beechwood... Jenison... Van Buren SP... Allendale... Dorr... Covert... Ganges... Conklin... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4246 8625 4270 8620 4298 8622 4312 8627 4312 8591 4320 8591 4320 8579 4277 8578 4277 8564 4223 8606 4225 8635 TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 225DEG 57KT 4281 8632 4271 8618 4262 8613 4247 8614 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...85MPH $$ DUKE ====================================================================== 951 WUUS53 KGRR 101512 SVRGRR MIC005-139-159-101645- /O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0033.200610T1512Z-200610T1645Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1112 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Allegan County in southwestern Michigan... Northwestern Van Buren County in southwestern Michigan... Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 1112 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest of South Haven, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Holland... Grand Haven... Allegan... South Haven... Hudsonville... Zeeland... Coopersville... Ferrysburg... Spring Lake... Bangor... Fennville... Saugatuck... Beechwood... Jenison... Van Buren SP... Allendale... Dorr... Covert... Ganges... Conklin... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4246 8625 4270 8620 4298 8622 4312 8627 4312 8591 4320 8591 4320 8579 4277 8578 4277 8564 4223 8606 4225 8635 TIME...MOT...LOC 1511Z 220DEG 51KT 4249 8649 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ CAS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 holy shit 85 mph winds out west? if thats not a potential sign of things to come idk what is. im curious to see what the nam and hrrr say here in another couple hours. i hope a line don't form too early and use up the available energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Those velocity scans are impressive and really expansive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 yeah i seen that. if storms are going nuts this early i wonder how much a difference 4 hours is gonna make when we go into the evening hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 DTX update... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 101559 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...corrected author National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1144 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .UPDATE... Southwest flow already gusting up to 25-30 kts accompanied by CWA- wide dewpoints firmly in the 72-74 range by 15z this morning. 12z DTX sounding indicated 1200 j/kg MLCAPE with a pronounced H7 cap beneath the resident shortwave ridge axis. Mean lapse rates from the cap to the EL, which resides around 36kft, averaging a pedestrian but still adequate 6C/KM or slightly better. Gravity waves within the disspating morning stratocu field over eastern areas indicative of the last vestigates of the nocturnal inversion while an increasingly agitated cu field has begun taking shape to the south and southwest. Convection remains unlikely in the very near term as capping will persist until the coincident arrival of cooler temperatures associated with increasing mid-level height falls and greater deep layer moisture over over northern Indiana around 17z, at which time data from a 17z special release will be incoming. Momentum fields will ramp up considerably in the 18-00z time frame as the shortwave over northeast Missouri acquires a shaprly negative tilt and lifts toward Lower MI. Superposition of strong dynamic forcing (especially south), the strengthening deep layer wind field, and MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 j/kg will anchor a widespread severe thunderstorm threat with evolution toward a high end threat with time and especially with eastward extent. Convective mode will be largely modulated by SSW bulk shear increasing from 35kts early this afternoon to 50kts or greater over the eastern half of the CWA during the peak of the event. SSW shear certainly supportive of a few supercells especially over central/eastern zones (i.e. away from the impinging cold front). Otherwise, convection is expected to organize into linear/bowing structures supported by strong/deep rear inflow. Regardless of convective mode, ample dry air noted on the morning sounding and vigorous updraft intensity will support strong/significant downbursts. Any supercells will also pose a marginal hail threat, any greater potential likely limited by the overall warm thermal profile. Strongly veered SSW wind proifle suggests extremely limited availability of streamwise vorticity to existing supercells as confirmed by paltry 0-0.5 SRH of 50-100 m2/s2. In any case, the greatest tornado threat will most likely occur with localized bottom-up type development (i.e. apex of bows, etc) rather than with supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 GRR update... 000 FXUS63 KGRR 101511 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1111 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The thunderstorms are moving across the I-94 area, west of Jackson as I write this. The storms will continue to develop into a solid line of storms that will reach the eastern sections by mid afternoon. Strong winds are the greatest threat with these storms. There is strong low level moisture transport, focused on the I-69 area early this afternoon. the low level jet axis by mid afternoon will be just east of US-131 and there will be speed convergence as the core of the low level jet at 4 pm will be south of our CWA. Add to that a strong upper jet crossing the area with unusually strong upper level wave, it`s clear there is a significant severe storm threat today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Solidsting said: im hoping this spell breaks. i know soundings last night indicated a pretty good tor chance due to speed shear. went from showing pds tor now to just tor. gonna be a fun day i cant remember the last time we have had this kind of threat. and im surprised stuff already initiated so early west of here. should be a good sign i just hope a line dont go thru too early in the day We've had some early season PDS Watches totally fail over SWMI in the last decade. Even 11-17-13 didn't get the tor's up into MI as was expected. The Tor Watch in May of 2011 which produced the large rotation and tor-like damage swath is the worst I can remember locally. We are kinda overdue tbh. OH had that surprise outbreak back in Aug of '16 or '17, and the after dark EF4 on the NW side of Toledo back in June of 2010 also caused a warning here due to a very brief funnel west of here that took the roof off a church bldg. Way back 100 or more years ago, Marshall took a direct hit from a twister and the city hall bell was later found some miles from it's original location. The bell is now a memorial piece with a history plaque in front our current city hall. Stay safe all you Michiganders! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 IWX update... 000 FXUS63 KIWX 101534 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1134 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Continued strong confidence in multiple severe weather events, especially eastern half of CWA this afternoon. Area of concern developing on leading edge of dryline advancing eastward into southwest Indiana/KEVV vicinity. Hi-res satellite data showing rapid transition to convective streets and sheared towering cumulus field. As this embedded mesoscale vorticity lifts north- northeast. Effective shear, with speed shear largely attributing, to 50-55 knots over northern Indiana coincident with moderate to strong unstable airmass. Pockets of heating with surface temperatures into middle 80s and dewpoints in middle 70s with 3000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE early this afternoon will continue to provide upscale growth of linear segments, potential LEWP with an embedded tornado, though by far the greatest risk is for widespread damaging wind gusts, significant tree and possible structural damage in isolated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Holland mi gusts to 72mph on hourly ob 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...parts of central and northern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101617Z - 101715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe-wind bowing segment near Grand Rapids is projected to move into northern Lower MI and beyond severe thunderstorm watch 274 by 130pm EDT. A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed from near Saginaw Bay northward encompassing much of northern Lower MI. A severe thunderstorm watch will also be needed for southeast Lower MI and may be issued in coordination with the Alpena and Detroit NWS Forecast Offices. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KGRR shows a severe bowing segment moving northeast at 60 mph. The Holland, MI ASOS (KBIV) observed a 63 kt gust at 1145am EDT with passage of this bow. The bowing segment and a cluster farther east near Lansing are projected to move east/north of the severe thunderstorm watch 274 by 130pm EDT. The airmass downstream of these storms over central and northern Lower MI has destabilized with surface temperatures in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s deg F. RAP forecast soundings show 2000-2500 J/kg with 45 kt effective shear. The near-storm environment will continue to favor severe clusters capable of damaging gusts (55-75 mph), which will result in swaths of scattered to widespread wind damage. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 42818406 44028464 44198604 45348511 45688431 45678320 44888253 42818406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We've had some early season PDS Watches totally fail over SWMI in the last decade. Even 11-17-13 didn't get the tor's up into MI as was expected. The Tor Watch in May of 2011 which produced the large rotation and tor-like damage swath is the worst I can remember locally. We are kinda overdue tbh. OH had that surprise outbreak back in Aug of '16 or '17, and the after dark EF4 on the NW side of Toledo back in June of 2010 also caused a warning here due to a very brief funnel west of here that took the roof off a church bldg. Way back 100 or more years ago, Marshall took a direct hit from a twister and the city hall bell was later found some miles from it's original location. The bell is now a memorial piece with a history plaque in front our current city hall. Stay safe all you Michiganders! yeah i remember the one in toledo, that was a good weather day but sad a strong tornado hit structures. yeah your right we have had some pds be complete flukes. im just hoping the cap stays till 3pm so it gives the best chance of strong storms in SELM. if things get spicy i might go out and do some chasing myself later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Guys the helicity is not bad at all ahead of those storms firing in Indiana. Definitely going to be something to watch here as it approaches the border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Not much change with the 1630z D1. 30% hatched wind got extended south to between Cincy and Dayton. Lots of development underway in Central Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of Eastern Lower MI until 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, geddyweather said: Indeed. The HRRR seems like it has had that tendency all year, with mixed results. Wind profiles seem rather uni-directional but there is some backing near the surface, so I'm wondering if maybe a hybrid of the two (think QLCS type event) may end up being what we see? It'll be interesting, for sure. 85/76 here in Columbus Grove (north of Lima, OH), southwesterlies have been rolling all morning. SPC just hoisted an MD for IN/OH with 95% chance of a SVR watch being hoisted. Yep.QLCS is looking likely. The storms near Bunker HIll and Russiaville in IN are already starting to spin. I may not be back on here for awhile. Getting ready to head out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Currently 84/90/73 per the airport unit. Just took my ride down to the public garage in town just in case a hailer does show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 55MPH wind gust here so not too bad. Came down in buckets. My Vantage Pro 2 said 9.00"/hr at one point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Storm motion finally taking on an easterly component, doubting if we'll see any Tors at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...western and central Ohio into northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101758Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW275 will likely be issued within the next hour. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be likely through this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms over central Indiana has produced several reports of damaging winds over the last few hours. These storms are ongoing in a very moist environment (surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F) ahead of a pressure trough/wind shift emanating from a 983 mb cyclone over southern Ontario. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 35-45 kt of effective shear as sampled by SPC mesoanalysis will support robust organized updrafts in the form of small bowing segments and supercells. Damaging winds will primarily be the main threat with the increase in storm coverage and interactions favoring strong downdrafts. However, the magnitude of instability/buoyancy will support some risk for isolated large hail with the strongest updrafts. Hodographs are expected to be relatively long but low-level flow is expected veer with time supporting the threat for one or two tornadoes given 0-1 km shear of 15-20 kt. A new Severe thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the next hour. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 38588362 38398438 38378477 38618517 39278531 40988426 41588381 41648364 41568290 41628214 41738178 41818152 41758140 39808209 39468230 38828298 38588362 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Kinda surprised it won't be a tornado watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 If RadarScope is correct all of those storms close to the IWX radar are packing 70-95 mph winds. Almost got a dang Cat 2 Hurricane in these things right now basically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: If RadarScope is correct all of those storms close to the IWX radar are packing 70-95 mph winds. Almost got a dang Cat 2 Hurricane in these things right now basically. This storm was warned for 80 MPH winds and even that might have been understated. On a related note, do I need to update my Radarscope membership to see the actual max on velocity scans or is it a setting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, mob1 said: This storm was warned for 80 MPH winds and even that might have been understated. On a related note, do I need to update my Radarscope membership to see the actual max on velocity scans or is it a setting? You might. It's the inspector tool that actually shows true windspeeds and dBZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 116 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1250 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW ASHLEY 43.20N 84.56W 06/10/2020 GRATIOT MI BROADCAST MEDIA SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON US 127 NEAR M-57. TIME ESTIMATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 55 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Currently 84/90/73 per the airport unit. Just took my ride down to the public garage in town just in case a hailer does show up Glad I did. 1" dia hail to my west in BC area. Yikes..cell warned south of me in NIN: HAIL...1.25IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 35 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Kinda surprised it won't be a tornado watch. Likewise if it’s following development like HRRR these would be more discrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Warning for 85 mph for Calhoun & Jackson Counties in Michigan Quote 773 WWUS53 KGRR 101843 SVSGRR Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 243 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 MIC025-075-101930- /O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-200610T1930Z/ Calhoun MI-Jackson MI- 243 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR CALHOUN AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... At 242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Marshall, moving northeast at 65 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...85 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Albion... Marshall... Battle Creek... Homer... Union City... Burlington... Brownlee Park... Marengo... Concord... Athens... Springport... Parma... Tekonsha... Tompkins... Ceresco... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4220 8520 4242 8513 4242 8447 4207 8471 4207 8525 TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 207DEG 58KT 4220 8497 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.00IN WIND...85MPH $$ DUKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laferri2 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 This system is giving me flashbacks to all the systems that Detroit has whiffed on in the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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