geddyweather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Surprised there isn't more chatter about tomorrow, though it "technically" isn't associated with the Cristobal remnants. Eastern IN/western OH (especially between I-69 and I-75 give or take some miles) seems like it has a decent shot at a TOR or two before things go linear. Winds aren't as backed on soundings as I'd like to see personally, but lots of other ingredients (good CAPE, lapse rates, decent low level SRH) are present. Definitely think it is worth monitoring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Would anticipate tomorrow's risk area to be pulled westward on the new update... at least the marginal/slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would anticipate tomorrow's risk area to be pulled westward on the new update... at least the marginal/slight. I could see the enhanced expanded south across the rest of west Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I could see the enhanced expanded south across the rest of west Ohio. Looking a little testy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Nearly all convection-allowing models produce helicity tracks through MI, IN, and OH tomorrow. 0-6km shear should be 40kt- 50kt throughout the region of the cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Day 1 moderate introduced, wind driven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Day 1 moderate introduced, wind driven Here's the disco. Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2020 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MICHIGAN REGION. SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL THREAT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ..LOWER MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN KS, SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH LATE-EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS STRONGEST 500MB FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE DOWNSTREAM POSITION OVER CENTRAL IL BY 18Z, THEN SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY 11/00Z. AT 0530Z, REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IT APPEARS THE WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS IN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD OVERSPREAD THIS REGION ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 18-20Z. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, IT APPEARS A MIXED STORM MODE WILL EVOLVE WITH SUPERCELLS, SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS, AND CLUSTERS ULTIMATELY MATURING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 120-150M WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE AN UPWARD-EVOLVING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. MEAN STORM MOTIONS AROUND 45KT ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE MLCAPE (2000 J/KG) WILL ENSURE ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD SEVERE, DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH LINE SEGMENTS. SOME TORNADO THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. FARTHER EAST, STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL AID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE STRONGLY FORCED, BUT ADEQUATELY SHEARED FOR AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL. ..DARROW/NAUSLAR.. 06/10/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 huh yeah this is kinda coming out of nowhere. i was looking at soundings 12 hours ago and thought to myself just maybe. now its coming into fruition. kinda intriguing how its suddenly transpiring like this. the soundings for my area look pretty gnarly for the 8pm time slot. right in prime time. cant show the soundings but heres the link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sblcl&rh=2020061000&fh=24&r=conus&lon=-83.38&lat=42.28&metar=&st=619c2178a9c0064e747d5e43a6a64e26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 IWXs morning AFD is the most gung hoe I've heard them in a long while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 As mentioned in the other thread, this is definitely one of the best setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time *Steep mid-level lapse rates *Negative-tilt trough *Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants) *Perfect timing (peak heating) *Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 A couple of surprise pop up storms near Kalamazoo already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Model dewpoints continuing to look worse than yesterday. RAP shows a decent clearing for eastern Michigan by about 14z. If this verifies should be a good wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Gonna be another couple rounds in Chicago today the way it looks, in addition to the pre-dawn activity. That line in central IL was fairly poorly modeled and may be the precursor to the main show in IN/MI/OH later. I'd watch the outflow boundary just S/E of Chicago into SW MI for possible spinups. Plenty of heating for the upper low and jet streak to produce a developing arc midday that will rotate into WI and train on the southeastern third of the Badger State. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 I know the winds aren't as backed as would be preferred, but the speed shear is very high. I think there is not only a tornado potential, but strong tornado potential today for the MichIndOh area. Just plenty of moisture (dew is 74 in Toledo), winds aloft, and instability to fuel these storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 boom BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 814 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Will County in northeastern Illinois... Kankakee County in northeastern Illinois... Southeastern Cook County in northeastern Illinois... Northern Lake County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 930 AM CDT. * At 813 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Peotone to near Chebanse, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Chicago, Hammond, Gary, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Calumet City, Merrillville, Chicago Heights, East Chicago, Schererville, Hobart, Lansing, Kankakee, New Lenox, Highland, Blue Island, Munster, Dolton and Park Forest. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 If the tornado threat was slightly lower this would be a case where a PDS SVR watch would get issued. It would still be entirely possible given current circumstances, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Hi all, Been an infrequent poster here. Finally just finished my long journey of earning my B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and getting a job in the field! Looking forward to trying to post here more, as I will be starting work remotely here in Cleveland for my new job through what looks to be most of the summer. As for today's event, certainly looks to be one of the most significant days I've tracked here in my relatively short history of following the local weather. I will be heading out to Delta, OH to meet a friend after work to try chasing before the main show arrives. Will see if the cells can stay discrete ahead of the line. If they do, the ingredients are certainly there for short lived tornados to form. As most are thinking though, this should primarily be a high wind threat kind of day for the majority of those in the SPC moderate and enhanced regions. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 minute ago, amt5626 said: Hi all, Been an infrequent poster here. Finally just finished my long journey of earning my B.S. and M.S. in meteorology and getting a job in the field! Looking forward to trying to post here more, as I will be starting work remotely here in Cleveland for my new job through what looks to be most of the summer. As for today's event, certainly looks to be one of the most significant days I've tracked here in my relatively short history of following the local weather. I will be heading out to Delta, OH to meet a friend after work to try chasing before the main show arrives. Will see if the cells can stay discrete ahead of the line. If they do, the ingredients are certainly there for short lived tornados to form. As most are thinking though, this should primarily be a high wind threat kind of day for the majority of those in the SPC moderate and enhanced regions. Congrats on the degree! Days like this I wish I were back in NW Ohio, perfect chase territory. I do think the tornado potential is being underplayed a bit, but we will see how high helicity climbs. Often in these extremely dynamic setups it seems we begin by hyping up the wind chances, and then it materializes into a solid tornado event. Reminds me of June 5-6, 2010 honestly, which was hyped up originally as quick transition to a bow echo that was supposed to roll through. In fact many of the MCD's were about the issuance of a T-Storm Watch. Yet as the storms approached they never really lined up, and we were left with a prolific tornado outbreak. While the low pressure is a bit more removed from the area (center over Lake Superior) I do think the amount of moisture and speed shear will add up to a solid tornado event for both OH and MI here today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...northern IN...southwest and western Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101344Z - 101515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify this morning and likely require a severe thunderstorm watch issuance by 11am-12pm EDT. Max thunderstorm gust potential will initially range 45-60 mph but strengthen into the 50-70 mph range towards midday as both the magnitude/coverage of damaging gusts increases. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing band of storms from east-central IL to the Chicago south side with another cluster of storms developing over northwest IN expected to move into southwest Lower MI during the next 1-2 hours. Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud streets across northern IN into southern Lower MI, indicative of a very moist boundary layer. Specifically regarding moisture, the 6am EDT Detroit, MI observed sounding showed a 16.3 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio, a climatological maximum through June 15th during the period of record (since 1949). Pockets of strong heating per cloud breaks will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass by mid-late morning with little to any remaining convective inhibition as temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. KIWX and KGRR show 30-40 kt in the 1-2 km AGL layer with 50 kt around 3km AGL at KGRR. As the mid-level migratory shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes from MO today, additional storm development/strengthening is expected. As a result, damaging gusts will become more common as bands of storms intensify through the late morning and into the early afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out given the moist boundary layer and adequate speed shear in the lowest 1-2 km, but the general unidirectional southerly wind profile will tend to favor damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41798743 43518643 43958519 43588442 42868424 41178513 40788600 40858719 41798743 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Incredible wind and rain with the storm in NW IN. Also quarter sized hail. Branches down outside my office window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 hoosier getting the goods now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: hoosier getting the goods now Blasted here. Definitely severe criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 yeah looked like a no doubter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 MI gonna finally break that dry spell 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solidsting Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 im hoping this spell breaks. i know soundings last night indicated a pretty good tor chance due to speed shear. went from showing pds tor now to just tor. gonna be a fun day i cant remember the last time we have had this kind of threat. and im surprised stuff already initiated so early west of here. should be a good sign i just hope a line dont go thru too early in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Down in our area, the NAM insists on a linear threat, while several runs of the HRRR wants to spit out some discrete cells forming around FWA and moving into Northwest Ohio before going linear around TOL. It will be interesting to see what verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Based on reports/pics, it looks like the absolute worst may have gone like a half mile to mile to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Down in our area, the NAM insists on a linear threat, while several runs of the HRRR wants to spit out some discrete cells forming around FWA and moving into Northwest Ohio before going linear around TOL. It will be interesting to see what verifies. Indeed. The HRRR seems like it has had that tendency all year, with mixed results. Wind profiles seem rather uni-directional but there is some backing near the surface, so I'm wondering if maybe a hybrid of the two (think QLCS type event) may end up being what we see? It'll be interesting, for sure. 85/76 here in Columbus Grove (north of Lima, OH), southwesterlies have been rolling all morning. SPC just hoisted an MD for IN/OH with 95% chance of a SVR watch being hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Areas affected...southern through northeast IN...west-central and northwest OH...southern Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101522Z - 101645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely initiate along the surface trough over southwest and west-central IN prior to 12pm EDT. Storms will develop/intensify as they move northeast during the early afternoon as they organize into clusters/bands of storms. Damaging gusts primarily in the 55-75 mph range are expected. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus from near Evansville north to Greencastle, IN along the wind shift boundary. Surface observations over IN have warmed into the mid 80s with dewpoints generally in the 73-74 deg F range (per reliable ASOS compared to AWOS showing artificially too high dewpoints 77-79 deg F). These surface conditions input into the 8am EDT Wilmington, OH observed sounding, are yielding around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. KIND VAD shows around 50-55 kt in the 2-3 km AGL layer. Once storms develop and mature, water-loading and momentum transfer will favor damaging gusts with maximum wind speeds generally in the 55-75 mph range with the stronger downdrafts. The greatest coverage of severe gusts will likely focus in eastern IN/western OH where peak storm maturity, in the form of small bowing segments/cluster, is expected this afternoon. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 38858725 40608648 42108519 42218432 41808384 41348384 38928550 38578601 38668679 38858725 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now