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Summer 2020 Banter


doncat
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13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

imagine if izzy made landfall as a cat 3

We would have seen a complete destruction of the power grid, with outages lasting months. We likely would have seen gusts to 100mph+ Research suggests that Healthy northern hardwoods fail with winds over 80mph. I paid allot of attention to the tree damage with Isaias and allot of the snapped trees had termite or carpenter ant damage. 

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We noticed the same around here.  Interestingly though, in many cases it looked like the wind was enough to take out certain trees one way or the other.  For example, just nearby my house there were three similar old trees in a row, all down.  Two were snapped 3 feet from the ground with clear insect damage.  The third didn't (which I could tell after it was cut up into pieces), but that one just uprooted instead, lifting up 25 feet of sidewalk.  

I've been thinking about this a lot - the suburbs are gradually becoming devoid of any tall trees.  A lot of suburbs are nearing 75 years old.  So many oaks and big old maples have been either voluntarily cut down or taken down in storms, and are very rarely replaced.  Formerly 'woodsy' suburbs - some in fact with 'woods' in the name of the prettier sections of them - are on their way to looking like brand new treeless developments in the plains somewhere.  

 

 

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On 8/11/2020 at 9:33 AM, JerseyWx said:

But unless that thing is an actual mask, like an N95/N100 or P100 with cartridges, the particles can go right through.

I'm definitely not against masks, because it's at least some form of barrier, but don't let it make you overconfident either.  People also need to learn to wear them correctly (cover the nose)!  Hand washing is so important, yet so overlooked, because I still see people touch surfaces and then touch their face without sanitizing.  This is what causes a lot of illness in general.

Well to be fair....yes particles can get through a face covering, but it's not like they have a zero impact.  There was a simulation I saw where an ordinary face covering was used and it was found that whereas an uncovered face can transmit droplets 8 ft during a cough or a sneeze, with a face covering that's cut down to around 6 inches.  Hence the reason why the best way to go about it is to couple a face covering with physical distancing.  And it's a lot easier to achieve a safe physical distance with a face covering than without.

Logically, this makes sense too.  Think of what it sounds like when you talk through a face covering.  Your voice becomes muffled and you have to talk louder right?  That's the face covering having an effect.  And virus particles travel at way less than the speed of sound and are much easier to filter than sound is.

 

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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

One farmer is hoping that his insurance will cover a portion of the losses. I have a ton of respect for anyone that can make a go of such a large agricultural business. I have seen how much of a challenge even a home garden on a few acres of land can be. Many new starts ups  are attempting to do indoor vertical farming with varying degrees of success.

https://www.kcci.com/article/derecho-damage-to-iowa-crops/33577652

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/8/16611710/vertical-farms

 

looks like most of the damage was corn damage?  I respect what farmers do for a living, but if that corn was used to make high fructose corn syrup then good riddance.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Well to be fair....yes particles can get through a face covering, but it's not like they have a zero impact.  There was a simulation I saw where an ordinary face covering was used and it was found that whereas an uncovered face can transmit droplets 8 ft during a cough or a sneeze, with a face covering that's cut down to around 6 inches.  Hence the reason why the best way to go about it is to couple a face covering with physical distancing.  And it's a lot easier to achieve a safe physical distance with a face covering than without.

Logically, this makes sense too.  Think of what it sounds like when you talk through a face covering.  Your voice becomes muffled and you have to talk louder right?  That's the face covering having an effect.  And virus particles travel at way less than the speed of sound and are much easier to filter than sound is.

 

some people spit when they talk...we would say give me the news not the weather...

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Well to be fair....yes particles can get through a face covering, but it's not like they have a zero impact.  There was a simulation I saw where an ordinary face covering was used and it was found that whereas an uncovered face can transmit droplets 8 ft during a cough or a sneeze, with a face covering that's cut down to around 6 inches.  Hence the reason why the best way to go about it is to couple a face covering with physical distancing.  And it's a lot easier to achieve a safe physical distance with a face covering than without.

Logically, this makes sense too.  Think of what it sounds like when you talk through a face covering.  Your voice becomes muffled and you have to talk louder right?  That's the face covering having an effect.  And virus particles travel at way less than the speed of sound and are much easier to filter than sound is.

 

Right, I never claimed that they're entirely ineffective.  My point is that some states do not have mandatory mask requirements, and so let's say someone sneezes and/or coughs without a face covering but you have one on, the particles will get through the fabric when you inhale (especially loose fitting or improperly worn ones).  Now in states like NJ, NY, etc. that make everyone wear a mask, it is somewhat better because now "spittle" is contained, and each person has a barrier up as opposed to just one.

Ultimately, in a perfect world, we would all need to have medical grade N95 masks and actually pay attention to how we handle our PPE.  I see people all the time with a mask in their hand as they grab the handle of a shopping cart or open a door.  Now imagine all the germs, besides COVID, that are on those surfaces, being introduced to your face.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

 

The National Weather Service in The San Francisco Bay Area has issued
a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Marin County in northern California...
  Alameda County in northern California...
  San Mateo County in northern California...
  Santa Cruz County in northern California...
  Sonoma County in northern California...
  Contra Costa County in northern California...
  San Francisco County in northern California...
  Santa Clara County in northern California...
  Northwestern Monterey County in central California...
  Napa County in northern California...

* Until 800 AM PDT.

* At 634 AM PDT, public and radar indicate several training
  thunderstorms capable of producing gusty errastic winds and
  frequent lightning, moving north at 40 to 50mph across the region.
  A steady stream of new thunderstorms are expected to develop
  throughout the day.

  HAZARD...Erratic outflow wind gusts of 50 to 75 mph near
           thunderstorms.   Frequent lightning lead to new wildfire
           starts.

  SOURCE...Public.

  IMPACT...Expect down trees, down powerlines, power outages,
           wildfire starts in remote areas, difficulty driving in
           the winds.
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23 hours ago, Rjay said:

 


The National Weather Service in The San Francisco Bay Area has issued
a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Marin County in northern California...
  Alameda County in northern California...
  San Mateo County in northern California...
  Santa Cruz County in northern California...
  Sonoma County in northern California...
  Contra Costa County in northern California...
  San Francisco County in northern California...
  Santa Clara County in northern California...
  Northwestern Monterey County in central California...
  Napa County in northern California...

* Until 800 AM PDT.

* At 634 AM PDT, public and radar indicate several training
  thunderstorms capable of producing gusty errastic winds and
  frequent lightning, moving north at 40 to 50mph across the region.
  A steady stream of new thunderstorms are expected to develop
  throughout the day.

  HAZARD...Erratic outflow wind gusts of 50 to 75 mph near
           thunderstorms.   Frequent lightning lead to new wildfire
           starts.

  SOURCE...Public.

  IMPACT...Expect down trees, down powerlines, power outages,
           wildfire starts in remote areas, difficulty driving in
           the winds.

How the heck do you get severe thunderstorms and heavy rain in SF while Death Valley does this-

I heard that Death Valley hit 130 degrees?!  It's the first 130 degree temp in the modern era and if verified it will be the ONLY 130 degree temp ever recorded in the shade!

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On 8/14/2020 at 1:08 AM, JerseyWx said:

Right, I never claimed that they're entirely ineffective.  My point is that some states do not have mandatory mask requirements, and so let's say someone sneezes and/or coughs without a face covering but you have one on, the particles will get through the fabric when you inhale (especially loose fitting or improperly worn ones).  Now in states like NJ, NY, etc. that make everyone wear a mask, it is somewhat better because now "spittle" is contained, and each person has a barrier up as opposed to just one.

Ultimately, in a perfect world, we would all need to have medical grade N95 masks and actually pay attention to how we handle our PPE.  I see people all the time with a mask in their hand as they grab the handle of a shopping cart or open a door.  Now imagine all the germs, besides COVID, that are on those surfaces, being introduced to your face.

also those PPE need to be properly disposed of after use, otherwise they just add to the risk

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How the heck do you get severe thunderstorms and heavy rain in SF while Death Valley does this-

I heard that Death Valley hit 130 degrees?!  It's the first 130 degree temp in the modern era and if verified it will be the ONLY 130 degree temp ever recorded in the shade!

This may be the new all-time record if gets verified. That 1913 reading looks like it may have been an error. So they should probably review that record when thy do this one.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/25/new-analysis-shreds-claim-that-death-valley-recorded-earths-hottest-temperature-in-1913/

Oct. 25, 2016 at 3:57 p.m. EDT

Death Valley, Calif., boasts that it is home to the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth. In 1913, the temperature there reportedly spiked to a blistering 134 degrees, a world record that has been endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization.

But an exhaustive analysis published Monday has determined the record is not legitimate. The temperature reported was “essentially not possible from a meteorological perspective,” according to geographer and climatologist William T. Reid, who conducted the analysis, and Christopher Burt, an expert on weather extreme, who assisted Reid. Reid and Burt conclude the weather observer erred in taking the measurement, officially logged at Greenland Ranch at Furnace Creek in Death Valley on July 10, 1913.

Reid and Burt, who published their 7,000-word critique of the record at Weather Underground, identified three main problems with the temperature measurement.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the new all-time record if gets verified. That 1913 reading looks like it may have been an error. So they should probably review that record when thy do this one.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/25/new-analysis-shreds-claim-that-death-valley-recorded-earths-hottest-temperature-in-1913/

Oct. 25, 2016 at 3:57 p.m. EDT

Death Valley, Calif., boasts that it is home to the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth. In 1913, the temperature there reportedly spiked to a blistering 134 degrees, a world record that has been endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization.

But an exhaustive analysis published Monday has determined the record is not legitimate. The temperature reported was “essentially not possible from a meteorological perspective,” according to geographer and climatologist William T. Reid, who conducted the analysis, and Christopher Burt, an expert on weather extreme, who assisted Reid. Reid and Burt conclude the weather observer erred in taking the measurement, officially logged at Greenland Ranch at Furnace Creek in Death Valley on July 10, 1913.

Reid and Burt, who published their 7,000-word critique of the record at Weather Underground, identified three main problems with the temperature measurement.

Thats correct- when you do an analysis of nearby locales, none of them were even within ten degrees of that bogus reading from 1913.

The 131 in Tunisia is also under dispute.....there are lots of erroneous readings from that era.

This 130 is a pretty exciting development in the sense that it's the first time we've broken the 130 barrier in the modern record.  Within the next ten years, I expect to see more of these from Death Valley, as well as from the Persian Gulf region (Kuwait, Iran, Iraq) maybe all the way east to Pakistan.  Those are the places where 128-129 has been recorded multiple times over the past decade.

 

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How the heck do you get severe thunderstorms and heavy rain in SF while Death Valley does this-

I heard that Death Valley hit 130 degrees?!  It's the first 130 degree temp in the modern era and if verified it will be the ONLY 130 degree temp ever recorded in the shade!

You do realize how far apart these two places are right? There are also some big mutha rocks in the way too, Mt Whitney is basically a 14,000 foot tall wall on the east side (facing Death Valley) so any weather that makes it over the top boils off as it falls over and meets baking dry air that's rising. It's cool to watch and you can see it over many western mt ranges with radical east or south side drops.

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3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You do realize how far apart these two places are right? There are also some big mutha rocks in the way too, Mt Whitney is basically a 14,000 foot tall wall on the east side (facing Death Valley) so any weather that makes it over the top boils off as it falls over and meets baking dry air that's rising. It's cool to watch and you can see it over many western mt ranges with radical east or south side drops.

Yeah but normally when there is big heat like that in the west, the heat ridge covers the entire west and doesn't allow any precip into California at all.  I'd expect any rain to be well up into BC not Central Cali lol.

Any rain at all in Cali in the summer is pretty rare- I remember a couple of years ago (maybe last year?) SF hit 106 (I think that was in September?)

 

 

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I can’t imagine how 130 might feel, I’ve experienced 120 degree heat indices, but humid heat and dry heat are two different beasts. I’d argue that humid heat is worse, but both are dangerous, 130 is lethal.

And imagine not getting a severe thunderstorm warning in 14 years, yikes. I always complain about Long Island’s lack of thunderstorms compared to the rest of the region, but Christ that must suck.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats correct- when you do an analysis of nearby locales, none of them were even within ten degrees of that bogus reading from 1913.

The 131 in Tunisia is also under dispute.....there are lots of erroneous readings from that era.

This 130 is a pretty exciting development in the sense that it's the first time we've broken the 130 barrier in the modern record.  Within the next ten years, I expect to see more of these from Death Valley, as well as from the Persian Gulf region (Kuwait, Iran, Iraq) maybe all the way east to Pakistan.  Those are the places where 128-129 has been recorded multiple times over the past decade.

 

 

Some very impressive extremes around the EPAC region.

 

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

I can’t imagine how 130 might feel, I’ve experienced 120 degree heat indices, but humid heat and dry heat are two different beasts. I’d argue that humid heat is worse, but both are dangerous, 130 is lethal.

And imagine not getting a severe thunderstorm warning in 14 years, yikes. I always complain about Long Island’s lack of thunderstorms compared to the rest of the region, but Christ that must suck.

There's a city out there that has had over 40 days in a row above 100 degrees- is that Phoenix?

 

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some very impressive extremes around the EPAC region.

 

The temps are calculated to the nearest tenth in Celsius, aren't they?  I've seen reports of both 129.9 or 130.0.  Either way it should be rounded to the nearest degree if expressing in Fahrenheit.

The two major heat developments this year are the 100 degrees in Siberia and 130 in Death Valley.

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25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There's a city out there that has had over 40 days in a row above 100 degrees- is that Phoenix?

 

Shaping up to be the warmest summer on record there, already one of the hottest cities on Earth as it is. I wonder if the people there even notice since it’s extremely hot whether it’s AN or BN.

Crazy to have the warmest July on record in both PHX and NYC (LGA) on opposite sides of the country. Feels highly unusual.

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2 hours ago, Cfa said:

Shaping up to be the warmest summer on record there, already one of the hottest cities on Earth as it is. I wonder if the people there even notice since it’s extremely hot whether it’s AN or BN.

Crazy to have the warmest July on record in both PHX and NYC (LGA) on opposite sides of the country. Feels highly unusual.

Yeah, interesting geographic pattern to the record heat. A more intense version of last July. The previous record warmest July in Phoenix was 2009.

E92A3302-E01A-45B9-8780-3472C642F54F.png.194d9caf51b1d78b1df663e5a55d858c.png
7277DDA0-2283-4932-AA6D-9F0625AACF0F.gif.dfb359b2dafe1a52ecc18bc72d6d508a.gif

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Long duration damaging winds with this derecho. Almost looks like you are watching a RFQ of a major hurricane cross the Gulf or Southeast Coast. Watching this 30 minute video gives you an idea why the damage was so extreme. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long duration damaging winds with this derecho. Almost looks like you are watching a RFQ of a major hurricane cross the Gulf or Southeast Coast. Watching this 30 minute video gives you an idea why the damage was so extreme. Numerous pulses of damaging winds over the 30 minute period.

 

 

Excellent video. Peak gusts look to be 80+. Does anyone have a radar loop of the event?

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