Cristobal Remnants June 9-10

[hlcater]

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

New Day 2 has a slight in Eastern Lower MI, new day 1 expands the slight slightly 

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Upper levels suck but low/mid-levels are very nice, and with so much ambient vorticity I'd be happy to be on any discrete convective cell in that environment.

[hlcater]

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Upper levels suck but low/mid-levels are very nice, and with so much ambient vorticity I'd be happy to be on any discrete convective cell in that environment.

really cant help but think we see storms struggle to maintain supercell structure tomorrow, but I dont know of any analogous environments. just that effective shear and cloud layer shear are far below the threshold you'd expect. Don't think we go unpunished for that so to speak. That being said, 400 0-1km SRH and ~150 0-3km CAPE are probably good for something. Would probably be staring at a moderate risk if the profile above 500 wasn't worse than garbage.

[snowlover2]

9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

New Day 2 has a slight in Eastern Lower MI, new day 1 expands the slight slightly 

Also a 5% tornado area for SEMI and west OH.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1244 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO  
LOWER  
MICHIGAN...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW  
YORK...WEST VIRGINIA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN  
INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINIA, AND NEW YORK WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
..LOWER MI, OH AND NORTHERN KY INTO WV, NY AND PA  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MID MS  
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, AND INTO ONTARIO BY  
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LOWER MI  
INTO OH, EASTERN KY AND TN, AND ACROSS AL AT 00Z.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST, CONTRIBUTING  
TO MUCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. HEIGHT  
FALLS WILL ALSO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AIDING  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER LOWER MI, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH  
AS KY. A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WITH SRH  
LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.  
 
DURING THE DAY OVER NORTHERN NY, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE INCREASED SRH IN THIS AREA WILL  
CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO BUT STORM  
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN.  
 
OTHERWISE, STORMS ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD PERSIST EASTWARD  
ACROSS PA AND NY DURING THE EVENING, BENEATH STRONG WINDS ALOFT.  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, BUT  
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

 

[Radtechwxman]

Won't storms be low topped though? Upper levels really won't even get tapped into much

[Hoosier]

Will certainly be interesting to watch.  Despite the problematic wind profiles farther aloft, the low level shear is kind of scary.  Wonder if it could be a day with not many tornadoes but maybe a more significant one thrown in there somewhere, even if shorter lived.

[Malacka11]

Kind of out of touch with the specifics, when do we expect any potential cells to pass through northern Illinois?

[A-L-E-K]

[CheeselandSkies]

Gorgeous morning here so far.

[A-L-E-K]

yeah sunrise was great with the high bands

[Chicago Storm]

9z RAP with 50-55kt at 950mb this evening, with mixing to above that.


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[Chicago Storm]

yeah sunrise was great with the high bands

Sunset yesterday was tops.


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[King James]

Sunset yesterday was tops.


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[eureka22]

From the 13Z Day 1.

 

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South...
A mid-level dry slot on the southern fringe of the Cristobal should
continue to develop east-northeastward over southeast Missouri and
western portions of Kentucky/Tennessee toward Illinois/Indiana
through the afternoon. With a very moist air mass (low 70s F surface
dewpoints) also developing northward, dry slot-related cloud breaks
and diurnal heating will contribute to weakening inhibition and
moderate buoyancy by afternoon, particularly across Illinois into
western/central Indiana. The north/northeastward-expanding core of
strongest low/mid-level winds will also reside within this same
corridor, including an increasing mid-level westerly component this
afternoon, which could boost the potential for somewhat longer
duration/semi-discrete updraft rotation. A few tornadoes may occur
across the region, along with isolated thunderstorm-related wind
damage. Portions of Illinois (roughly the eastern half) into Indiana
will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
tornado-related risk upgrade (10% Enhanced). 

[janetjanet998]

 

[janetjanet998]

very odd set up with the Tropical system and then a strong system for June

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0801 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020  
  
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING  
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES  
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY  
  
HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF THE REGION FOR A FOCUSED SEVERE RISK THAT IS  
ANTICIPATED TO BE MAXIMIZED GENERALLY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS BORDER VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING.  
  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO  
FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REACH EASTERN  
KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL  
PRECEDE THIS UPPER TROUGH, ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A  
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD A  
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING  
FRONT/SURFACE LOW. IN PARTICULAR, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD  
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BUOYANCY ARCING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO  
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE  
LOW.  
  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG  
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP  
IMMEDIATELY EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITHIN THE FOCUSED  
EXIT REGION OF THE 80KT+ MID-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
INITIATE BY AROUND 19-20Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG  
THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER REGION. A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAN BE  
EXPECTED. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK ASIDE  
FROM VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TEND TO CLUSTER AND BECOME UNDERCUT  
BY THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT A LARGE  
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE  
EVENING FROM FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST  
IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  
   
..MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH  
  
A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CRISTOBAL SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOWARD ILLINOIS/INDIANA  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (LOW 70S F SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS) ALSO DEVELOPING NORTHWARD, DRY SLOT-RELATED CLOUD BREAKS  
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION AND  
MODERATE BUOYANCY BY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO  
WESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-EXPANDING CORE OF  
STRONGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO RESIDE WITHIN THIS SAME  
CORRIDOR, INCLUDING AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS  
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BOOST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT LONGER  
DURATION/SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR  
ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WIND  
DAMAGE. PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS (ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF) INTO INDIANA  
WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE  
TORNADO-RELATED RISK UPGRADE (10% ENHANCED).   
  
FARTHER NORTH, A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/BRIEF TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT AS FAR NORTH AS EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND  
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND  
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.  

 

[janetjanet998]

new thread to focus on Tornadoes, including MO river valley out west

 

[janetjanet998]

4 areas

 

1) "normal" banding with a tropical system to the north and east of the center

2)  Mo Valley late this afternoon 

3) late evening overnight IL/IN

4) MI/OH tomorrow

 

[Indystorm]

79/68 at Indpls at 10 a.m. EDT.  That dew point has really increased from the mid 50's yesterday.  The dry slot referenced in the SPC discussion is concerning.  Bright sunshine here now.  

[madwx]

all the CAMs have trended upward with rain in the Madison area this morning.  The cirrus canopy is really overspreading the area now

[hawkeye_wx]

4 minutes ago, madwx said:

all the CAMs have trended upward with rain in the Madison area this morning.  The cirrus canopy is really overspreading the area now

Yes, after having shifted much of the heavy rain west of Cedar Rapids, even into central Iowa, they have shifted back into eastern Iowa and now show CR getting 2-3".  We can certainly use it.  When fencing in a garden plot yesterday, it was difficult to push the support stakes into the hard soil.

[Indystorm]

From IND early morning discussion

CAMs have been consistently picking up on the development of a band
of convection moving from southwest to northeast this afternoon.
Potential for severe weather to accompany this band of storms is
certainly there as shear and storm relative helicities will both be
rising and an 850mb jet will be approaching. Instability however
appears to be lacking a bit through 20Z which may serve to mitigate
the intensity of the convection somewhat. In addition...low level
directional shear is minimized to some degree. At this point...gusty
winds and torrential rainfall may be the primary threats from this
band as PWATs surge above 2 inches.

Once this band of convection passes however...the airmass will
quickly become much more favorable for severe weather and rotating
updrafts with a focus over the western part of the forecast area as
stronger shear... helicities and instability advect into the region.
Model soundings become increasingly impressive as low level winds
back and flow increases at 850mb with the arrival of a jet max at 60-
70kts along the Indiana-Illinois border. Helicities will rise to
near 300 m2/s2 in the 0-1km layer with long looping hodographs in
the lowest 1-2km for a few hours. Finally...LCLs will drop once the
band passes late this afternoon potentially to as low as a few
hundred meters. All of these parameters support a heightened threat
for a few tornadoes with any convection that can get going focused
on roughly the 21Z to 02Z timeframe this evening. Damaging winds
will be possible as well with lapse rates briefly steepening
through the boundary layer and having an easier time tapping into
the stronger winds at 850mb.
 

[cyclone77]

Flash flood watch one county west, wind advisories one county east.  Positioned perfectly in the lame zone for this thing.  

HRRR does show some strong winds immediately following the passage of the low early this evening.  Surface low looks to go right through here.

[cyclone77]

Winds gusting to 47mph in Decatur already.  42mph at Champaign.

[A-L-E-K]

not terrible, hopefully we see some surprise nice numbers later

[Chicago Storm]

Not really sure why we needed a new thread for severe. That’s a big chunk of the other thread.

 

 

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[Hoosier]

Pressure down to 992 mb and forward speed has increased to 25 mph per latest advisory.

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not really sure why we needed a new thread for severe. That’s a big chunk of the other thread.

 

 

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Cristobal could've made things easier by fully phasing. 

I think you could argue it either way, but I tend to agree so will merge it.  The Plains threat is largely outside the sub and the severe threat tomorrow, while not explicitly due to Cristobal's remnant circulation, is at least somewhat related. 

[Chicago Storm]

Hopefully the SPC isn’t dumb enough to actually go 10% tor for anywhere in the region today.


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