Cristobal Remnants June 9-10

[RyanDe680]

Just back from the panhandle of FL, and I gotta say, crap ton of rain....  And the main stuff was still to the west.

[snowlover2]

Updated day 2

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2020  
 
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE MIDWEST AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF  
THE MISSOURI, MID MISSISSPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO  
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER PARTS OF  
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH  
THE DAY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES  
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
WHILE CRISTOBAL -- INITIALLY PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH TIME, A COLD  
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL NOW DEEPENING  
AS A SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
WILL LIKELY HAVE SURGED TO A POSITION FROM THE LOW  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TEXAS  
GULF COAST.  
   
..MID MS/MID AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
 
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED  
TO RESIDE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS/TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EARLY IN  
THE PERIOD, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A VERY  
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST  
QUADRANT OF THE LOW, WILL RESULT IN A LARGE/BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST  
LOW-END WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A DIURNAL UPTICK IN RISK SHOULD OCCUR  
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS  
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE IL/IN AREA. WEAK LAPSE RATES,  
BUT VERY MODEST HEATING SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG VEERING WITH  
HEIGHT WITHIN THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD TO SUPPORT A RELATIVE  
INCREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT LEAST SOME RISK WILL LIKELY LINGER  
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  
   
 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

The morning models are not helping any.  Their heavy rain bands are still all over.  The Euro just came in east of Cedar Rapids.  Ugh.

[Hoosier]

LOT wrote one of the longer discussions that I can remember seeing from them for a single storm.  Kudos RC and crew.

[Hoosier]

I mean look at this thing

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
338 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...
317 PM CDT

Through Tuesday Night...

Plenty of unpack with the forecast through the next 48 hours. The
main forecast messages remain with some ability to provide more
specificity, although a couple aspects remain modestly uncertain
for this close in timing owing to subtle differences in system
track and evolution. The messages are:

- Tuesday mid-afternoon through mid-evening (~3-11 p.m.) likely
  being the main window of impact for our area
- Strong winds with regular gusts of 35-45 mph, potential for
  sporadic 50+ mph during this time, while Wednesday`s winds look
  less impacting than they had
- Scattered severe storm threat, even some of the activity not
  having much or any lightning
- Period of tropical-like rainfall rates overlapping the late day
  commute

Today finds the area under a stout upper level ridge, with
suppression aloft likely being enhanced around the outer
periphery of now Tropical Depression Cristobal which is near the
Arkansas/Mississippi border slowly moving north. Temperatures of
89 to 94 over dew points around 50 will be prevalent through 5
p.m. before gradual cooling. The outer spiraling cirrus edge of
Cristobal will spread northward over the area this evening and
then thicken overnight with lows of 65-70.

Guidance has gradually honed more in on the solution track of the
remnant mid-level to surface circulation of Cristobal, taking it
northward right over the Mississippi River. This is forecast by
the National Hurricane Center to be centered just north of the
Quad Cities by late day Tuesday. As a continued warm core system
it should be retaining primarily tropical-like characteristics,
though some mid-latitude / extratropical evolution may be starting
and likely will more rapidly Tuesday night as the system tracks
north of the area. The strongest 925 mb winds of near 50 kt over
the area are forecast to be mid-late afternoon through mid-
evening, and this is coincident with the near-record high absolute
moisture values (PWATS of 2.25 inches) and the developing
negative tilt of the mid-level circulation. A probable key to both
wind magnitude and severe potential is if any destabilization can
be achieved in that lowest km or two of the troposphere to result
in momentum transfer of stronger winds and for parcels in an
vorticity-rich low-level environment to achieve LFC heights.

.Tuesday Synoptic Winds...
Confidence remains high on a period of strong southeast to south
winds Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, but lower on the peak
wind gust magnitudes and how prevalent these will be. For this
reason, opted to hold off on any wind headlines and allow the
evening and midnight shifts to take another look at the latest
guidance trends.

As the center of TD Cristobal lifts northward near the Mississippi
River on Tuesday afternoon, a corridor of stout pressure falls
will overspread the region as the system`s strong low level wind
fields arrive. Even at about 24 hours out, there are non trivial
differences in the model guidance with respect to the exact track
and strength of Cristobal. In addition, there is uncertainty on
mixing depths as the peak low level jet magnitude arrives Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. This is because the low level
wind core will be in tandem with the rain bands, which will lower
mixing depths. ECMWF and UKMET are most concerning from a wind
perspective, as they still deepen the low to sub 990 mb at our
latitude, with GFS not quite as deep, but forecast soundings still
suggesting 40+ kt speeds not too far above 1000 ft AGL could be
mixed down. NAM had weakest and farthest east solution of the 12z
cycle. It could be an outlier, but not confident enough to
completely discount that idea.

Think that we`re likely headed for needing a Wind Advisory for a
portion of the area, most likely the southeast 1/2 or 2/3 of the
CWA given NHC consensus low pressure track. With such strong winds
off the deck, even if diminishing mixing heights render 45+ mph
gusts somewhat less frequent, even aside from deeper convection,
showers may be able to tap into the stronger winds aloft. Given
the lingering uncertainty on exact timing, duration and areas
impacted, opted to hold off on a Wind Advisory issuance with this
forecast package in collaboration with neighboring offices. As
mentioned above, wind direction with strongest winds will start
out southeasterly and then shift to south and then south-southwest,
with speeds then gradually easing by midnight or so as direction
becomes more southwesterly. Will message gusts up to 40-45 mph,
with gusts of 50+ mph still possible, especially in heavier showers.

.Tuesday Severe Potential...
The pattern in the mid-level heights, low-level wind field,
surface winds, and just being in the right front quadrant of an
inland tropical system are concerning for rotating storms.
However, instability may be nearly nil if the rain shield is large
and steady enough during the afternoon into early evening. Any
arc-like structures or more scattered activity that develops will
be more susceptible to subtle heating and destabilizing to
support tapping into the strong wind field and providing some
depth to rotating updrafts for isolated severe wind and tornado
potential. The trend is slightly later in this timing, more later
afternoon into mid evening, which is when low-level instability
from central Illinois is likely to advect northward into at least
the southern forecast area and possibly all the way up to Chicago.

Lightning is likely to be limited especially with any activity
within the main rain area. In terms of convective wind potential,
given 50 kt flow at 2000 ft and very limited inversion, any
deeper storms would be able to maximize that and could produce
isolated damaging winds. For tornado potential, some if not
numerous rotating updrafts are likely late day into Tuesday
evening just south or into the CWA, again depending on if
activity can get into more of a mode or arcs/scattered to harness
some destabilization. The potential is there for tornadoes to be
of a short-lived nature given the shear highly outweighing the
instability, and just a rich moist environment too. It`s not
impossible some more true supercell structures could develop in
east central IL and graze into the far southeast forecast area
given trajectories of deeper instability, especially early Tuesday
evening (7-10 p.m.).

.Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential...
The longer duration heavier rainfall with Crisotbal`s remnants
observationally upstream and into Tuesday model solutions looks
to be near and just west of the center of circulation. This has
some buffer before overlapping north central Illinois, so that`s a
good sign. Given the absolute moisture values though, periodic
heavy rainfall rates within a 3-6 hour window sometime within mid-
afternoon through mid-evening are likely. This would overlap the
commute time and given tropical-like rain, this could sharply
reduce visibility and lead to localized flooding and temporary
hydroplaning concerns. But this threat does look much more
localized especially compared to a couple of the more widespread
May events. Total forecast rainfall through Tuesday night is
likely to exceed one inch in places, most favored along/north of
I-88. We are not expecting rises in rivers to be significant at
this time.

.Beach Hazards and Lakeshore Flooding...

For northeast Illinois, a period of stronger mainly onshore winds
(southeast direction) will be seen later Tuesday morning into the
evening. This will be enough to support dangerous swimming
conditions and could result in low end lakeshore flooding. This
does not look to be a significant lakeshore flooding event.

MTF/RC

&&

.LONG TERM...
328 PM CDT

Wednesday through Monday...

Forecast guidance has decent spread on Wednesday, not that much of
a surprise given phasing of a mid-latitude trough and incoming
tropical remnants. The trend today was for a slower true phase of
this and thus a longer break in the stronger winds, and the second
maximum being less in wind speed and duration.

The mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the area during
midday into afternoon Wednesday, acquiring a slight negative tilt
as it does. There are variances in speed and degrees of drying and
suppression behind Cristobal`s remnants, but in general guidance
does show some break in shower/convective coverage later Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and possibly a
few storms would be favored to develop immediately ahead of the
trough`s center. The 12Z NAM even supported some severe threat in
northwest Indiana and especially just east of the area, but that
was somewhat of an outlier solution with its further west
indication of that occurring. Rainfall with Wednedsay`s activity
could be an additional half inch plus in some places, again
northern Illinois north of I-80 most favored.

For Wednesday winds, the tightest pressure gradient envelops the
area later Wednesday into Wednesday night in guidance, not ideal
for overlapping the diurnal maximum. Also the phased low center,
while near an impressive four standard deviations from normal for
June in this region (983 mb), is located by that time well north
of the Great Lakes. The cold advection and unidirectional wind
profile may support some gusts over 40 mph, and its still within
the window of possibilities that this period needs a short lived
Advisory if the phasing shifts a little earlier/south than
current solutions support.

[Hoosier]

WPC has taken over with issuing advisories.  Note the forward speed increase to 18 mph

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  29...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Corrected cyclone category for the 36 hour forecast point 
...CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF MONROE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[purduewx80]

7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The bullish Euro has backed off on the winds, and is falling more in line with the rest of the pack.

Looking more likely we end up with a usual 40-55mph wind event, locally higher.

There does appear to be some tor threat, but greatest will be much further S and SE.

If you're referring to the sfc wind gust product, then perhaps this is true. I see very little difference in the 925-700mb winds on the 12Z run from the previous ones, 925mb below:

[hawkeye_wx]

The flash flood watch has been expanded westward into central Iowa where some models are trying to focus the rain.  DVN, unfortunately, said nothing in their latest discussion about where they think the best rain will fall.  I don't think they know.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

If you're referring to the sfc wind gust product, then perhaps this is true. I see very little difference in the 925-700mb winds on the 12Z run from the previous ones, 925mb below:

Good representation there of the increased lag between Cristobal and the trailing wave.

Not looking like an Ike type scenario as far as winds from tropical remnants, but probably still going to be better than 95% of remnant systems in the Midwest in that regard.

[Chicago Storm]

If you're referring to the sfc wind gust product, then perhaps this is true. I see very little difference in the 925-700mb winds on the 12Z run from the previous ones, 925mb below:

The few soundings I had looked at were not as great as a day ago. In regards to getting the goods to the surface, that is.

[Chicago Storm]

Good representation there of the increased lag between Cristobal and the trailing wave.

Not looking like an Ike type scenario as far as winds from tropical remnants, but probably still going to be better than 95% of remnant systems in the Midwest in that regard.

Compared to remnants events, yea.

 

But this is looking like the standard 40-55mph locally higher type of event we see at least once every spring/fall.

[purduewx80]

17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The flash flood watch has been expanded westward into central Iowa where some models are trying to focus the rain.  DVN, unfortunately, said nothing in their latest discussion about where they think the best rain will fall.  I don't think they know.

They may have to extend the FFW into later in the day Wednesday as the trailing synoptic systems rolls in. There should be another localized heavy rain threat on the NW side of that upper low where you'll have convection feeding into a deformation zone.

[purduewx80]

18Z 3k NAM has steep low-level lapse rates and 45KT at the top of the boundary layer as the PM convection rolls into Chicago, from central Cook Co below:

As has been stated by others, the progged warmup to near 90 ahead of these bands will be critical in higher winds aloft being able to mix down in convection.

[snowlover2]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good representation there of the increased lag between Cristobal and the trailing wave.

Not looking like an Ike type scenario as far as winds from tropical remnants, but probably still going to be better than 95% of remnant systems in the Midwest in that regard.

You have to remember with Ike there was the unexpected mostly sunny skies to the south/east of the track which aided in the stronger winds. Would be pretty hard to get another Ike scenario unless that happens.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

You have to remember with Ike there was the unexpected mostly sunny skies to the south/east of the track which aided in the stronger winds. Would be pretty hard to get another Ike scenario unless that happens.

Yes.  The core of the strongest winds with Cristobal look to be accompanied by clouds/precip.  Key difference.

[Hoosier]

Convection or not, I am most interested in the timeframe between about 6 pm and midnight here.  If we're going to mix down some monster gusts, that's when it would be.  

[Hoosier]

Haven't given it as much attention as other aspects, but definitely interested in the local severe threat after dark Tue.  Tremendous low level shear, increasing CAPE... and surface based storms well into the night shouldn't be a problem with this airmass and the low levels remaining relatively well mixed. 

[Hoosier]

Maybe there will be some reports but as of now, there are no severe reports on the SPC page in the south from Cristobal for today.  Hopefully we do better tomorrow.  

[janetjanet998]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Haven't given it as much attention as other aspects, but definitely interested in the local severe threat after dark Tue.  Tremendous low level shear, increasing CAPE... and surface based storms well into the night shouldn't be a problem with this airmass and the low levels remaining relatively well mixed. 

such a bizarre set up I wont know where to begin..

is there like another warm front with mid 70 dewpoints surging north versus "only" 70-72 more north with a dryline surge  (over Mo) with  slightly improving lapse rates moving in behind Cristobal?

 

 

 

[purduewx80]

3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

such a bizarre set up I wont know where to begin..

is there like another warm front with mid 70 dewpoints surging north versus "only" 70-72 more north with a dryline surge  (over Mo) with  slightly improving lapse rates moving in behind Cristobal?

yep!

[madwx]

both HRRRs have precip moving through S Wisconsin fairly quickly tomorrow, between 2-10, with a fairly convective look.  Immediately afterwards winds turn to the SW and get very gusty into the overnight hours.  The plains wave then moves eastward and that precip rolls in starting Wednesday morning.  I'm looking at 3 periods for gusty winds tomorrow 1)ESE winds getting progressively gustier from around 9-2 tomorrow 2) any strong gusts brought down by convective features during the afternoon and evening 3) and perhaps the strongest winds behind the frontal feature after 10 pm.  

[Moosey2323]

HRRRv4 really slowing down the cold front progression. Wednesday could actually be more active than initially expected for Michigan.

[frostfern]

It looks like CAPE increases late overnight into the morning over SW Michigan due to colder air aloft advecting in from the southwest.  1000 j/kg is enough for supercells with such extreme wind fields.  I wonder if there will be a tornado watch with this.  It's almost like a early spring / late fall severe weather setup.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

yep!

Both 00z HRRRs and the incoming NAM/3 km NAM would appear to have a decent severe threat in a good chunk of the LOT cwa tomorrow evening, after perhaps a bit of a lull earlier on.

[purduewx80]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Both 00z HRRRs and the incoming NAM/3 km NAM would appear to have a decent severe threat in a good chunk of the LOT cwa tomorrow evening, after perhaps a bit of a lull earlier on.

yep, this was that 10% area I had on my map from yesterday. Latest guidance has it a touch farther north now. Certainly worth keeping an eye on in the late evening. That lull you mention should be brought on by a brief 700mb dry slot:

I think the biggest question in my mind is whether you'll have sfc based development overnight. 

[hlcater]

Tomorrow’s setup in IL/IN is completely foreign to me and I honestly have no idea what to think of it. Especially the hodographs. 0-6km shear is nothing short of substantial and likely results in storm motions exceeding 40kts, but wind aloft is significantly backed and in much less magnitude. The result is a hodograph I’ve literally never seen before where it doubles back on itself. What the result of this is, perhaps rain on inflow? Similarly, never seen 0-6km shear contrast with abysmally low EBWD that is typically far too low to support supercells. To me, storm speed seems to suggest that this environment appears far more sheared than it actually is in a storm relative sense. If storms can initiate on a confluence zone in S IL or elsewhere, my guess is that we get fast moving clusters of storms and transient supercell structures with perhaps a few tornadoes owing to large SRH values present(note the sounding posted is on the conservative end of guidance) I’d feel better if EBWD and cloud layer shear weren’t in the gutter. 

Thermos should be sufficient but not stellar and shear aloft is better with northward extent tomorrow. Definitely interested to see what results from this.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

yep, this was that 10% area I had on my map from yesterday. Latest guidance has it a touch farther north now. Certainly worth keeping an eye on in the late evening. That lull you mention should be brought on by a brief 700mb dry slot:

I think the biggest question in my mind is whether you'll have sfc based development overnight. 

The forecast soundings I pulled have sfc based inflow or practically surface based at that time.  The hodos do get wacky but certainly not hurting in the low levels.  

[madwx]

 

13 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Tomorrow’s setup in IL/IN is completely foreign to me and I honestly have no idea what to think of it. Especially the hodographs. 0-6km shear is nothing short of substantial and likely results in storm motions exceeding 40kts, but wind aloft is significantly backed and in much less magnitude. The result is a hodograph I’ve literally never seen before where it doubles back on itself. What the result of this is, perhaps rain on inflow? Similarly, never seen 0-6km shear contrast with abysmally low EBWD that is typically far too low to support supercells. To me, storm speed seems to suggest that this environment appears far more sheared than it actually is in a storm relative sense. If storms can initiate on a confluence zone in S IL or elsewhere, my guess is that we get fast moving clusters of storms and transient supercell structures with perhaps a few tornadoes owing to large SRH values present(note the sounding posted is on the conservative end of guidance) I’d feel better if EBWD and cloud layer shear weren’t in the gutter. 

Thermos should be sufficient but not stellar and shear aloft is better with northward extent tomorrow. Definitely interested to see what results from this.

 

based on my thoughts on how the shear will play out, I think the precip core for any cells will get shoved pretty far out of the way for any right moving cells.  The strange backing with height is high up enough that it will really stretch out the updraft to the north, away from the track of the storm..  Think some days with nice VBV, except wonkier and probably really messy with low LCLs

[Hoosier]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  30
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 92.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM W OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for...
* Areas in and near the length of the Mississippi Valley

A Gale Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Michigan


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 92.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h) and its motion is expected to accelerate to the north and 
north-northeast over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as 
Cristobal transitions into an extratropical cyclone. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday over
portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes as Cristobal
strengthens as an extratropical low.

RAINFALL: Cristobal will produce storm total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches from Arkansas to
the western Great Lakes through Wednesday morning.  This rainfall
may produce flash flooding, and is forecast to produce isolated
significant river flooding across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  Smaller streams across
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi have begun to rise and
are forecast to crest mid-week.  New and renewed significant river
flooding is possible across the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

[Hoosier]

Gonna have fun weenieing out over the HRRR runs.  The 04z run already has almost 70 kts at 850 mb to the south of Kankakee at 22z.