hawkeye_wx Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 Models are latching onto the double-barrel low scenario. Unfortunately, this GFS run pushes much of the rain west and north of me. A tropical cyclone remnant missing nw would be a kick to the gut. 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 GFS trending toward the Euro. We have said that a few times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 This is such a bizarre setup for June. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 We'll see what the 12z Euro has but generally speaking, it and the UKMET have been stronger with the remnants of Cristobal as it enters the Midwest (especially the UK). That of course affects the strength of the wind fields. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 The 12z UK has joined the GFS with a shift nw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z UK has joined the GFS with a shift nw. It would be something to see the heaviest rains go west of Cedar Rapids. This is anecdotal but imo, these remnant systems tend to tick farther east than progged at this range as they get into the mid latitudes. No guarantees that happens this time though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 12z Euro is west as well. As with other models, a bit more south-to-north than the previous ssw-nne runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 Euro goes sub 980 mb 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 At least with traditional non tropical cyclones, there is usually a question about how well you will mix on the warm side. The second map (Wednesday) would likely be in a deeper mixed environment though. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 MKX not really buying into that yet. My point forecast for Tuesday night says "winds could gust as high as 30 MPH." Wednesday is "A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 Definitely looking more and more likely that this will be something many of us have not seen around these parts, re: post-TC high/sig winds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Definitely looking more and more likely that this will be something many of us have not seen around these parts, re: post-TC high/sig winds. And in June of all months. Not Sep/Oct when you would think it would be more likely. Assuming it unfolds reasonably close to what's progged, I don't think it's inaccurate to call this setup unprecedented for the region and time of year, at least as far back as weather records go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 This is definitely looking like it's gonna be one to remember. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 Curious as to the severe potential with this once the more tropical thermodynamic profiles are somewhat muted into Wednesday. Anomalous wind fields at all levels and plenty of low level moisture would indicate the potential for a pretty significant squall at the very least. A lot of things depend on the speed of Cristobal through the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: MKX not really buying into that yet. My point forecast for Tuesday night says "winds could gust as high as 30 MPH." Wednesday is "A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75." They need to look a little deeper into their Cristobal. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, RobertSul said: They need to look a little deeper into their Cristobal. It was only a matter of time until a 'crystal ball' reference. No one would've wanted a crystal ball looking into this year's events, unless they could prevent some of the happenings... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 Having the entire cone to my west for a system making landfall on the Gulf coast is certainly not something that happens often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 From what I can tell, there has only been one tropical system that landfalled in Louisiana or east of there and passed to the west of Chicago -- a tropical storm in 1906 that made landfall in the Florida panhandle. Sometimes it gets difficult to track the remnant lows as they dissipate, so I can't rule out some additional occurrences, but even if it's a few times, that is pretty rare since the tropical records go back over 150 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro is west as well. As with other models, a bit more south-to-north than the previous ssw-nne runs. Seeing more QPF on the right side of the track is concerning, both for tornadic potential and the ability of convection (even if it’s just heavy showers) to drag that low level jet down to the surface. Many of the forecast soundings have low-level CAPE where the hodographs are long. Euro’s 1-2 punch for the Great Lakes would lead to widespread erosion on most shores, with the worst of it in MI and WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 I'd rather have thunderstorms than this stupid tropical system. With no EML and the primary band coming through during the night there probably won't be much of any thunder... then it gets cool and dry. Weird to have an October-like system with strong winds and a cold push in June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 As has been mentioned, these bands east of the low will be worth watching 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 That shortwave that ejects into the Plains behind it is at a pretty low latitude and it quite strong for June. Would think there could be a considerable severe threat with it assuming the two are separated by a decent degree. CIPS analogs are loaded with big events, but obviously there's a wrench in there with Cristobal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 00Z NAM KRZL sounding valid 7PM Tues eve: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 00Z NAM KRZL sounding valid 7PM Tues eve: Rensselaer in northwest IN for those who don't know.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 Curious to see what the pressure is at landfall. Currently it is 993 mb. Guidance generally has minimal filling after landfall before it starts to deepen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 00z Euro wind fields = 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro wind fields = 75mph wind gusts from northeast IL into southeast WI Tuesday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 The way this is setting up, as two lows that track over me, my area doesn't even get any wind until later Wednesday, behind the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2020 Author Share Posted June 7, 2020 Might as well stay up for the day 3 outlook. We look to start Tuesday with sun or at least filtered clouds around here, so temps should be able to warm up pretty nicely through the morning and possibly into part of afternoon. Will be important to get as warm as possible before clouds become a bigger issue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 51 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro wind fields = The acceleration of those winds from the sfc to 700 mb is astounding for summer in these parts, UKMET is equally impressive. Even with a more tropical instability profile (tall, skinny CAPE), that kind of increase in winds will lead to convection. A slight risk is probably warranted with the model disagreement, but that’s some mdt risk potential on the Euro. Getting into the hi-res range soon. Extended RPM is certainly convective a in IL, IN, MI, WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now