madwx Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: @madwx direct hit on us by Wednesday morning lol hoping it comes through 12 hours earlier so we can have some convective potential with it. models are trending that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 12z UK has a 969 mb low over Lake Superior. Wow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Wouldn't mind the faster timing. Might as well maximize the wind potential around here with some diurnal assistance. Talking from experience, you better be careful what you wish for. In 2008 Ike came through during the day and with help of the sun being out we had winds of 60-70mph all day long. I was without power for 2 weeks. You really don't want to go through something like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 Total ape run from the 12z Ukie. Gets it down to 969 mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: Talking from experience, you better be careful what you wish for. In 2008 Ike came through during the day and with help of the sun being out we had winds of 60-70mph all day long. I was without power for 2 weeks. You really don't want to go through something like that. Yeah I know what can happen. The weather weenie in me would still like to experience it lol. It's enough to be interesting and disruptive but not cause catastrophic damage. Threat of a tree falling on the roof here is pretty low due to how far away they are. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 Sandy of the north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 12z UK... I think a tropical remnant precip track like this would be a first for me... extremely rare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 Euro trending faster and further west. Has it in SE Iowa on Tuesday evening now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 Looks like 12z Euro just misses a phase. Cristobal just a little too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 Yeah, the euro is so quick this run that Cristobal outruns the strongly-digging energy moving in from the west. It ends up with a kind of double-barrel system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: Looks like 12z Euro just misses a phase. Cristobal just a little too quick. Yeah, that is a less than pristine interaction. If we get the big phase, katy bar the door. Even so, Euro is still pretty respectable as far as tropical remnants go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 I can't help but wonder if without Cristobal in the picture we'd be getting a more predictable/high-ceiling early June regional severe weather event with that shortwave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 Euro gust product has 50-60+ mph sweeping through, even in this scenario that has problems with phasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 Yeah I know what can happen. The weather weenie in me would still like to experience it lol. It's enough to be interesting and disruptive but not cause catastrophic damage. Threat of a tree falling on the roof here is pretty low due to how far away they are. We didnt have trees close enough to fall on the roof but Ike did make me get a new roof as we lost big sections of shingles. 81 mph peak gust and it blew close to that all day. I think we were without power for 2 or 3 days. It was pretty cool as I was out in it all day but it was a real PIA after.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 If anyone wants to take a stroll down memory lane, here's a thread I made for Ike: Almost 4 million power outages in the Ohio Valley 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 If anyone wants to take a stroll down memory lane, here's a thread I made for Ike: Almost 4 million power outages in the Ohio ValleyA repeat of that shifted up this way would be perfect.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 The only Tropical system from the gulf I can find that has impacted Minnesota is Hurricane Alicia in 1983. Sometimes we get remnants from pacific storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: A repeat of that shifted up this way would be perfect. . The 1900 Galveston hurricane was a northward version of Ike. Instead of the swath of damaging winds in the Ohio Valley, it was more in the Lakes in 1900. Reading the old accounts, there was significant tree damage and some minor structural damage in and around northern IL. It can happen, but it's very hard to get a system to track far enough north to put northeast IL on the right side of it. It looks like that could happen with this one, so then it comes down to details of the phasing with the trough and the wind fields. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 Hyped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 In a way, the "botched phase" ala Euro is still a pretty significant wind threat because of the secondary low that develops with the trailing energy. Prolongs the departure of everything and keeps the wind threat going longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 850mb wind speeds progged by some of the 00Z guidance are just incredible - something never seen before during the warm season: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: In a way, the "botched phase" ala Euro is still a pretty significant wind threat because of the secondary low that develops with the trailing energy. Prolongs the departure of everything and keeps the wind threat going longer. That's an interesting feature, Euro isn't the only one bringing another round of winds Wednesday PM either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 850mb wind speeds progged by some of the 00Z guidance are just incredible - something never seen before during the warm season: I wish pivotal still had Euro soundings that you didn't have to sign up for. Would love to check those out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 Euro and some of the other guidance has the system holding together remarkably well even way after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wish pivotal still had Euro soundings that you didn't have to sign up for. Would love to check those out. ugh, same. most curious about lower-level lapse rates/CAPE for any possible spinups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 1-2 punch The thing is that the trees would get blasted for hours from multiple directions in this scenario... first from the S/SE and then from the W. Our trees don't have a lot of experience with that when they are fully leafed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 Northern Michigan office's take Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 High impact weather potential: Possible extratropical remnants of Cristobal. Record/near-record high temps Tuesday? As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, quite the complex and challenging forecast expected through the midweek time frame as TS Cristobal is expected to undergo extratropical transition and trek northeastward along the Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Lots of uncertainty with regards to specific impacts locally as they hinge greatly on the timing of Cristobal and the progression/interaction of impressive troughing expected to be draped across the Intermountain West at the start of the forecast period. Latest NHC forecast has Cristobal making landfall along the Gulf Coast late Sunday/Sunday night, moving into the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday before treking further north into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night-Wednesday. Latest guidance continues to suggest that after Cristobal undergoes its extratropical transition and potential interaction with aforementioned troughing that impressive dynamic upper-level forcing would further deepen the cyclone as it treks northward. If this sequence were to pan out as currently progged, certainly the threat for heavy rain and potentially strong winds would present themselves somewhere across the mid-upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. However, as was alluded to above, lots of uncertainties prevail through this time frame. The most glaring is the exceedingly rare nature of this event (in the manner it`s currently progged), along with how well guidance is handling a large influx of latent heat into the ridge across the midsection of NOAM. As the prior forecaster mentioned, if guidance is underdone in this respect, you`d expect this to further amplify the ridge and slow the progression of the aforementioned trough leading to less interaction with Cristobal and a weaker remnant cyclone overall. All in all, lots of variables at play over the next several days, but at the very least, the threat for a potentially impactful storm system is possible across parts of the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 Definitely intrigued at the possibility of tornadoes in the NE quadrant of this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 This is gonna be fun to track 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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