Indystorm Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 747 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT. * AT 747 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HOMEWOOD, OR OVER GLENWOOD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MUNSTER AND DOLTON AROUND 755 PM CDT. CALUMET CITY AND BURNHAM AROUND 800 PM CDT. HAMMOND AND WHITING AROUND 805 PM CDT. EAST CHICAGO AROUND 810 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 "Storm" earlier just after 3PM with the initial feeder band ended up having enough wind to take down a ~1 foot diameter tree in the neighbors yard. Rapid increase in synoptic winds recently now, just took down another tree in a different neighbors yards. Could hear cracking of likely smaller branches in the distance with the bigger gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Everything in Chicagoland has that look to it. Heads up, Hoosier! I’m sure he’s well aware and of that cell coming in. Looks nasty right now. I had to speed through dinner to get outside lol. Rotation passed almost right overhead and now another tornado warned cell will pass to my nw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 29 minutes ago, King James said: Another Check you PM please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 My rain total is 2.49". I'm pretty happy with that. I kinda got stuck outside the final heavy bands, so it could have been even better. I finally got my first 1" rain event of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Highlight of the event going on right now with 35-40mph gusts. Final total is 0.60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 0-1 km helicity up to 500 around Chi town. No wonder these mini cells are spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Watching southern Will county again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Down to 989.5 MSLP. should be a new June record for Madison 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Tried to catch tornado warned cell as it was near Beecher. Looking northeast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 I am disappoint. Only 0.13 in the tippy bucket. I was hoping for one half to three quarter. The flower bed and grass is starting to show some stress. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Crazy windy IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Crazy windy IMBY.Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 HRRRv4 is a bit weaker on surface dewpoints. NAM3k looks about the same as previous runs. Main question seems to be whether there will be discrete cells ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Finally declared post-tropical in Wisconsin. If that holds up in reanalysis, it would be the first system on record to retain tropical characteristics into Wisconsin. Either way, we are talking many hundreds of miles and perhaps in excess of 1000 miles over land before it lost all of its tropical characteristics. Very impressive. BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal Advisory Number 34 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020 ...CRISTOBAL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.5N 90.4W ABOUT 180 MI...330 KM NW OF CHICAGO ILLINOIS ABOUT 60 MI...110 KM NW OF MADISON WISCONSIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for... * Parts of the Midwest and western Great Lakes Wind Advisories are in effect for... * Chicagoland and areas adjacent to Lakes Michigan and Superior A Gale Warning is in effect for... * Lake Michigan * Eastern Lake Superior * Portions of Lake Huron For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 90.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue as Cristobal tracks toward Lake Superior and then into Ontario, Canada by Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible as Cristobal fully transitions to an extratropical low. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Winds gusting over 45 mph are expected tonight and Wednesday over Chicagoland and areas adjacent to the western Great Lakes. RAINFALL: Cristobal will produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches from southeast Minnesota through much of Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and parts of lower Michigan. This rainfall may produce flash flooding, and is forecast to produce new and renewed minor to moderate river flooding across portions of the mid to upper Mississippi Valleys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Burke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 It's weird that the cells over southern Lake Michigan don't have any lightning despite 1500-2000 j/kg MUCAPE according to SPC meso-analysis. Cells near Purt Huran / Sarnia have a lot of lighting, with less MUCAPE (800 j/kg at best). Maybe mid-level lapse rate is more important than CAPE for lighting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1012 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 1010 PM CDT An interesting environment continues to reside over the southern forecast area, particularly along and east of the I-55 corridor. A severe threat, conditional on sustained storms, continues in that area even into the overnight, though confidence is on the lower end on the coverage and magnitude of convection as it moves northeastward especially late tonight toward the pre-dawn. The circulation remnants of Cristobal have lifted north into Wisconsin, with an impingement of more of a mid-latitudeelevated mixed layer around its southern influence and over our southern forecast area. This coincides with a low-level warm sector inching its way northward from central Illinois. A boundary that was part left from Cristobal and enhanced from earlier outflow,is draped southwestward from the south Chicago metro near I-55 into west central/southwest Illinois. Scattered convection of a more mature/deeper character has developed along this the past hour to two in central Illinois back into northern Missouri. Likely this is combination of the aforementioned features and the oddity of a warm core system pulling away from the region thus reducing the 700 mb cap of 13C seen on the 00Z ILX sounding. Because of this, convection the next few hours is expected to have a gradual uptick and not explosive such as with a triggering mechanism moving in. In the residual tropical atmosphere characterized by 18C-19C 850 mb dew points, it will continue to not take much of an impetus to get convection to fester along the boundary or grow given MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and increasing. These cells have had much more lightning than the earlier activity directly associated with Cristobal`s remnants, and that along with colder IR-sampled cloud tops indicate the deeper updrafts to balance high helicity (effective 400 m2/s2) and deep layer shear (40 kts). As scattered convection is expected to continue, supercell-like structures are likely to be common if cells to not amalgamate or become too close in proximity near the boundary. If cells can maintain discrete attributes, they will have some tornado threat given the low- level kinematics and low-level instability for stretching pre- existing vorticity. These will also continue to be some wind threat too, as well as possibly a localized flooding threat given some training potential. The convection allowing models (CAMs) present quite a spectrum of solutions, not surprising in such a moist troposphere. Feel that the most likely solution is convection continue to have a slow uptick in central Illinois into the southeast third of the forecast area (east central IL and northwest IN) through early overnight. There will probably be at least isolated activity to continue even into daybreak as an upper/mid level speed max from the true mid-latitude wave approaches. This will need to be assessed further, particularly if deeper convection could resurge /re-develop in or near northwest Indiana later Wednesday morning/early Wednesday afternoon as the upper wave center moves over the region. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Temp has rebounded to 81 here with winds still pretty gusty. What a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Temp has rebounded to 81 here with winds still pretty gusty. What a night. Wow, only 71 here. You were definitely in a good location for nice action from this event. Since this event was pretty ball-less here I'm ready for this to get out of here and get some good ol' fashioned summertime convection back in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 It’s getting windier here. Some kind of inflow jet behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 So Cristobal made it all the way to *checks notes* Richland County before becoming extratropical. That's a sentence I would never have thought of writing before this. To put it in perspective it actually made it farther north than where I am, albeit not by much. It's actual effects were a lot more benign though. We did eventually get the wind and we topped at probably 40-50 mph. Rain-wise we got our couple inches, it was absolutely pouring at a few points. Overall just a cool event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Wind is howling and it’s not even raining. It’s a really warm wind too. Very strange. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Warmed from 73 to 77 with this inflow jet. Just bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Wow, only 71 here. You were definitely in a good location for nice action from this event. Since this event was pretty ball-less here I'm ready for this to get out of here and get some good ol' fashioned summertime convection back in here. I'd probably put it in my top 5 in terms of tropical remnants. No high end weather... but between the winds, tropical downpours and tornado warned cells, it was pretty good in the context of tropical remnants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 New thread for the June 10 MOD risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Wow, only 71 here. You were definitely in a good location for nice action from this event. Since this event was pretty ball-less here I'm ready for this to get out of here and get some good ol' fashioned summertime convection back in here. Here's one you would've liked 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now