hlcater Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 New Day 2 has a slight in Eastern Lower MI, new day 1 expands the slight slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: Upper levels suck but low/mid-levels are very nice, and with so much ambient vorticity I'd be happy to be on any discrete convective cell in that environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Upper levels suck but low/mid-levels are very nice, and with so much ambient vorticity I'd be happy to be on any discrete convective cell in that environment. really cant help but think we see storms struggle to maintain supercell structure tomorrow, but I dont know of any analogous environments. just that effective shear and cloud layer shear are far below the threshold you'd expect. Don't think we go unpunished for that so to speak. That being said, 400 0-1km SRH and ~150 0-3km CAPE are probably good for something. Would probably be staring at a moderate risk if the profile above 500 wasn't worse than garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: New Day 2 has a slight in Eastern Lower MI, new day 1 expands the slight slightly Also a 5% tornado area for SEMI and west OH. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...WEST VIRGINIA... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, WEST VIRGINIA, AND NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..LOWER MI, OH AND NORTHERN KY INTO WV, NY AND PA A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO OH, EASTERN KY AND TN, AND ACROSS AL AT 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST, CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER LOWER MI, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS KY. A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WITH SRH LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. DURING THE DAY OVER NORTHERN NY, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE INCREASED SRH IN THIS AREA WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO BUT STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE, STORMS ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD PERSIST EASTWARD ACROSS PA AND NY DURING THE EVENING, BENEATH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Won't storms be low topped though? Upper levels really won't even get tapped into much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Will certainly be interesting to watch. Despite the problematic wind profiles farther aloft, the low level shear is kind of scary. Wonder if it could be a day with not many tornadoes but maybe a more significant one thrown in there somewhere, even if shorter lived. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Kind of out of touch with the specifics, when do we expect any potential cells to pass through northern Illinois? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Gorgeous morning here so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 yeah sunrise was great with the high bands 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 9z RAP with 50-55kt at 950mb this evening, with mixing to above that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 yeah sunrise was great with the high bandsSunset yesterday was tops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Sunset yesterday was tops.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 From the 13Z Day 1. ...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South... A mid-level dry slot on the southern fringe of the Cristobal should continue to develop east-northeastward over southeast Missouri and western portions of Kentucky/Tennessee toward Illinois/Indiana through the afternoon. With a very moist air mass (low 70s F surface dewpoints) also developing northward, dry slot-related cloud breaks and diurnal heating will contribute to weakening inhibition and moderate buoyancy by afternoon, particularly across Illinois into western/central Indiana. The north/northeastward-expanding core of strongest low/mid-level winds will also reside within this same corridor, including an increasing mid-level westerly component this afternoon, which could boost the potential for somewhat longer duration/semi-discrete updraft rotation. A few tornadoes may occur across the region, along with isolated thunderstorm-related wind damage. Portions of Illinois (roughly the eastern half) into Indiana will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible tornado-related risk upgrade (10% Enhanced). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 very odd set up with the Tropical system and then a strong system for June DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2020 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. ..CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF THE REGION FOR A FOCUSED SEVERE RISK THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAXIMIZED GENERALLY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS BORDER VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REACH EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER TROUGH, ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING FRONT/SURFACE LOW. IN PARTICULAR, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BUOYANCY ARCING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITHIN THE FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF THE 80KT+ MID-LEVEL JET. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY AROUND 19-20Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER REGION. A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK ASIDE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TEND TO CLUSTER AND BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING FROM FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. ..MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE TOWARD ILLINOIS/INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (LOW 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) ALSO DEVELOPING NORTHWARD, DRY SLOT-RELATED CLOUD BREAKS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION AND MODERATE BUOYANCY BY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-EXPANDING CORE OF STRONGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO RESIDE WITHIN THIS SAME CORRIDOR, INCLUDING AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BOOST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT LONGER DURATION/SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WIND DAMAGE. PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS (ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF) INTO INDIANA WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO-RELATED RISK UPGRADE (10% ENHANCED). FARTHER NORTH, A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/BRIEF TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR NORTH AS EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 new thread to focus on Tornadoes, including MO river valley out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 4 areas 1) "normal" banding with a tropical system to the north and east of the center 2) Mo Valley late this afternoon 3) late evening overnight IL/IN 4) MI/OH tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 79/68 at Indpls at 10 a.m. EDT. That dew point has really increased from the mid 50's yesterday. The dry slot referenced in the SPC discussion is concerning. Bright sunshine here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 all the CAMs have trended upward with rain in the Madison area this morning. The cirrus canopy is really overspreading the area now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, madwx said: all the CAMs have trended upward with rain in the Madison area this morning. The cirrus canopy is really overspreading the area now Yes, after having shifted much of the heavy rain west of Cedar Rapids, even into central Iowa, they have shifted back into eastern Iowa and now show CR getting 2-3". We can certainly use it. When fencing in a garden plot yesterday, it was difficult to push the support stakes into the hard soil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 From IND early morning discussion CAMs have been consistently picking up on the development of a band of convection moving from southwest to northeast this afternoon. Potential for severe weather to accompany this band of storms is certainly there as shear and storm relative helicities will both be rising and an 850mb jet will be approaching. Instability however appears to be lacking a bit through 20Z which may serve to mitigate the intensity of the convection somewhat. In addition...low level directional shear is minimized to some degree. At this point...gusty winds and torrential rainfall may be the primary threats from this band as PWATs surge above 2 inches. Once this band of convection passes however...the airmass will quickly become much more favorable for severe weather and rotating updrafts with a focus over the western part of the forecast area as stronger shear... helicities and instability advect into the region. Model soundings become increasingly impressive as low level winds back and flow increases at 850mb with the arrival of a jet max at 60- 70kts along the Indiana-Illinois border. Helicities will rise to near 300 m2/s2 in the 0-1km layer with long looping hodographs in the lowest 1-2km for a few hours. Finally...LCLs will drop once the band passes late this afternoon potentially to as low as a few hundred meters. All of these parameters support a heightened threat for a few tornadoes with any convection that can get going focused on roughly the 21Z to 02Z timeframe this evening. Damaging winds will be possible as well with lapse rates briefly steepening through the boundary layer and having an easier time tapping into the stronger winds at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Flash flood watch one county west, wind advisories one county east. Positioned perfectly in the lame zone for this thing. HRRR does show some strong winds immediately following the passage of the low early this evening. Surface low looks to go right through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Winds gusting to 47mph in Decatur already. 42mph at Champaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 not terrible, hopefully we see some surprise nice numbers later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Not really sure why we needed a new thread for severe. That’s a big chunk of the other thread. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Pressure down to 992 mb and forward speed has increased to 25 mph per latest advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Not really sure why we needed a new thread for severe. That’s a big chunk of the other thread. . Cristobal could've made things easier by fully phasing. I think you could argue it either way, but I tend to agree so will merge it. The Plains threat is largely outside the sub and the severe threat tomorrow, while not explicitly due to Cristobal's remnant circulation, is at least somewhat related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Hopefully the SPC isn’t dumb enough to actually go 10% tor for anywhere in the region today.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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