CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 We sell, but we pray. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We sell, but we pray. It sort of reminds me of that monster nor'easter we had in Jan '18. Different origins obviously, but the look at our latitude is very reminiscent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 3 hours ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 A Pittsburg pummeler and a Rangely Raking on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 CMC is new ... it's organizing the garbage out around 55W/25N into TC and moves it rather climo anachron west .... threatening a SSE approach to the EC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: CMC is new ... it's organizing the garbage out around 55W/25N into TC and moves it rather climo anachron west .... threatening a SSE approach to the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Yeah ...I guess in fairness the other guidance' have a "dent" running along the pressure contouring out there S of Bermuda... Probably TPC will have a new yellow X around 55W/30N .. should this next cycle or two continue to carry said dent west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Euro cooking up something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 No deep trough no blocking gonna be hard to hook up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No deep trough no blocking gonna be hard to hook up coast Uh? Trough is heading east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: CMC is new ... it's organizing the garbage out around 55W/25N into TC and moves it rather climo anachron west .... threatening a SSE approach to the EC 18z GFS has it coming near us day 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: No deep trough no blocking gonna be hard to hook up coast Definitely with you on the block. I'd need to see that before I could really give this much attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 LFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Oh cool.....0z said BYE....and stretched it out into some elongated POS that we've become so used to having the last few seasons or so.......stretched out pieces of shit guys.....remember that.....thats all the past few seasons have been......elongated stretched out pieces of shit.....k bye 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 So that thing is still showing up except now - around 240 - it seems to be interacting with the trough.......she coming folks..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Elongated pieces of shit though.......its like hell.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 hours ago, ice1972 said: Elongated pieces of shit though.......its like hell.... Like your chances at a superbowl. "Like hell." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Euro vs gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 What’s 40 MB’s between friends right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Like your chances at a superbowl. "Like hell." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What’s 40 MB’s between friends right lol. Split the difference at 978 and adjust down to 920 if needed......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Well, ... to point out the obvious - The GFS has a hurricane as a coherently separate phenomenon ... captured and evacuating up astride the EC on that frame... Contrasting, the Euro does not carry said feature - at all. The Euro's depiction is a purely en route to formulating an extratropical cyclogenesis, with perhaps an argument not worth having for some sort of weakly establishing yet doomed TD in the process of being evacuated out of the subtropics amid the barotropic conveyor ... that's a bug just before the windshield at 70 mph there.. Typically... full bird matured hurricanes and extratropical cyclones do not present with the same pressure pattern morphology on a weather map - it's like the difference between looking at a galaxy from a billion light years away, vs a tight, close spectral analysis of the quasar at said galaxies nucleus ...where the gradient of space time is severely sloped. But in more practical terms, the ballast of the upward vertical momentum of TC is near the core; where as, baroclinic lows ...which derive their mechanical forcing from larger synoptic jet mechanics ..are by virtue thus spread out. Sometimes, ... a uniquely intersecting jet fields will pass over unusually, vertically sloped low level thickness gradient...causing very upright air parcel motion where said jets happen across that gradient. The diffluence requires huge restoring mass to lift, but as it passes over the upright structure ... this gives the UVM exceptionally efficient conversion of psuedo-adiabatic heat release into velocity - and that will drive excessive internal pressure falls: 'bombogenesis' as it were... This may transiently take-on a pressure pattern structures that mimics the orientation of tropical cyclone phenomenon - but usually as the low "maxes" out, the internal pressure may stabilize, while remaining deep, and associated wind/response both expand so there is more proportional layout between the intervals between the core and the outer periphery of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I’m just satisfied there’s been a storm in that area modeled for several cycles. I hope it’s mostly tropically derived but a big “generic”storm would be nice too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 ...that said, the Euro does at least set the table for an usual event ... It is interesting to see that with the Euro's pretty clear bias of meridional flow exaggeration in its extended range ( in this case ...way out there, notwithstanding), vs the GFS ...which has a velocity rich bias causing a longitudinal stretching all the way up to the R-wave scales ... ( causing an opposing end state usually ) they've still managed to animate similar deep full latitude trough anomaly through that spatial-temporal range. The GFS happens to have a hurricane ...and as we all know, has been occasionally entangling one precariously near or into said trough for many cycles now - just not consistently in positoin or time but ...that's a forgone conclusion when modeling day 12 and beyond ( geez) ... Anyway, should the Euro come around to the growing consensus for some form of western Caribbean TC ... any said realization probably also feels the steering influence and gets evacuated out ... it doesn't take a huge leap of visionary insight to imagine any such feature as being rail-roaded along a similar precarious circumstance. So ...in simple terms, the period of time should be watched. Either way, just noting... according to recent trends/modalities of CPC's various teleconnectors.. there is a concerted rising motion in the PNA and NAO out through week two - that tends to herald a time for troughing over eastern N/A. Plus, climo for TC and trough marriages is hot through late November anyway ...so there's that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: 12z gfs I'll give it points for being consistent. Whether that's consistently wrong is TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Yup, 12Z GFS brings Hurricane Zeta right over Nantucket hour 252. The subtropical system in the Mid Atlantic Ocean will be Epsilon. Lock it in! Will Zeta's name be retired? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Yup, 12Z GFS brings Hurricane Zeta right over Nantucket hour 252. The subtropical system in the Mid Atlantic Ocean will be Epsilon. Look it in! Will Zeta's name be retired? Scary names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 16, 2020 Author Share Posted October 16, 2020 closing in on the 10 day window, system need to develop so models get a better handle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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