HoarfrostHubb Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 10th named land falling US storm. New record. Delta came ashore 12 miles from where Laura landfalled. Amazing Although 2004 had 2 come within 2 miles of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/verification-of-hurricane-delta.html Forecast for DELTA verified, as it made landfall within the high risk zone and was within the 100-115mph forecast range of intensity. Peak intensity and landfall intensity were very well forecast dating back to Monday, a full five days prior to landfall. Timing was off by five hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 No comment on the GFS? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 it's had that for like 7 cycles now... Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ... It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it. The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened. Oops. It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though. I mean ...from distant orbit, that is. Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level. Leaves the question out there: could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ? Oh... you just asked about the GFS though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's had that for like 7 cycles now... Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ... It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it. The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened. Oops. It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though. I mean ...from distant orbit, that is. Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level. Leaves the question out there: could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ? Oh... you just asked about the GFS though It’s 2020...so anything is possible this year. Cat 2 hooking left into NYC ain’t nothing for 2020 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's had that for like 7 cycles now... Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ... It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it. The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened. Oops. It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though. I mean ...from distant orbit, that is. Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level. Leaves the question out there: could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ? Oh... you just asked about the GFS though lol it showed up again in 18z but crossing cuba and heading nne but then the trough gets close and pulls her back a frame then scoots ne out of here......but she there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 6z Fantasy GFS but this storm would be massive if only this would pan out and come 200 miles west in the later frames 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 10 hours ago, ice1972 said: lol it showed up again in 18z but crossing cuba and heading nne but then the trough gets close and pulls her back a frame then scoots ne out of here......but she there.... Consistent little bugger. Let's see if it can ever get inside day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 15 hours ago, WinterWolf said: It’s 2020...so anything is possible this year. Cat 2 hooking left into NYC ain’t nothing for 2020 lol. Hooks into NYC drifts south to the gulf of mexico, reforms and strengthens to a Cat 5 ends as a snowcane for NE...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 6z Fantasy GFS but this storm would be massive if only this would pan out and come 200 miles west in the later frames Not very blocky, but I suppose if you were to dig that system in the Lakes a little earlier...maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Let's go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 That's kinda spooky/hilarious - we were just musing sort of sarcastically .. then the 06z Parallel GFS solution pops out - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Earlier this year I said my personal goal was a derecho and a hurricane this summer/fall Well I got the derecho..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 that storm is always 360 hr away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: that storm is always 360 hr away Cmc has it but weak.. just east of Florida at hr240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Just now, ineedsnow said: Cmc has it but weak.. just east of Florida at hr240 it appears to be keying on general pan-wide systemic/numerical instabilities that exists through those lower latitudes of the SW Atlantic Basin - I was discussing similarly ..it's seems to be a recurrent Autumnal right of passage. But in those specifics, the timing is way off between it and the GFS, the latter which doesn't even have its entity focused until 300+ hours; contrasting, the CMC is days ahead with an inverted trough over the whole breadth of the expanse and some paltry commitment to a TC ... The take-away is a period of development potential over all of the western Caribbean, Gulf and adjacent to Florida as the primary concern for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 That gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: That gfs That's my dream storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Damn....thats like 2 feet of rain......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All timer of a “zero chance that will EVER happen” run. its happened once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Our 1804.. Every storm is now 1804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All timer of a “zero chance that will EVER happen” run. Sandy produced alot of snow to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 We can always go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. Already have a sick day planned. Powder flu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Already have a sick day planned. Powder flu. Oct 11 redux? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Oct 11 redux? Except with wind this time.. it will all be a dream in about 30 minutes once 6z finishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 5 hours ago, ineedsnow said: That's my dream storm! Weird shit likes to go down on October 27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 It’s coming folks . Get gennys ready 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 14, 2020 Author Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Except with wind this time.. it will all be a dream in about 30 minutes once 6z finishes 6z just offshore won't know much till system forms early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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